Publications (4)4.03 Total impact
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ABSTRACT: Following primary breast cancer treatment, the early detection of ipsilateral breast tumour recurrence (IBTR) or ipsilateral secondary cancer in the treated breast and detection of new primary cancers in the contralateral breast is beneficial for survival. Surveillance mammography is used to detect these cancers, but the optimal frequency of surveillance and the length of follow-up are unclear. To identify feasible management strategies for surveillance and follow-up of women after treatment for primary breast cancer in a UK setting, and to determine the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of differing regimens. A survey of UK breast surgeons and radiologists to identify current surveillance mammography regimens and inform feasible alternatives; two discrete systematic reviews of evidence published from 1990 to mid 2009 to determine (i) the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of differing surveillance mammography regimens for patient health outcomes and (ii) the test performance of surveillance mammography in the detection of IBTR and metachronous contralateral breast cancer (MCBC); statistical analysis of individual patient data (West Midlands Cancer Intelligence Unit Breast Cancer Registry and Edinburgh data sets); and economic modelling using the systematic reviews results, existing data sets, and focused searches for specific data analysis to determine the effectiveness and cost-utility of differing surveillance regimens. The majority of survey respondents initiate surveillance mammography 12 months after breast-conserving surgery (BCS) (87%) or mastectomy (79%). Annual surveillance mammography was most commonly reported for women after BCS or after mastectomy (72% and 53%, respectively). Most (74%) discharge women from surveillance mammography, most frequently 10 years after surgery. The majority (82%) discharge from clinical follow-up, most frequently at 5 years. Combining initiation, frequency and duration of surveillance mammography resulted in 54 differing surveillance regimens for women after BCS and 56 for women following mastectomy. The eight studies included in the clinical effectiveness systematic review suggest surveillance mammography offers a survival benefit compared with a surveillance regimen that does not include surveillance mammography. Nine studies were included in the test performance systematic review. For routine IBTR detection, surveillance mammography sensitivity ranged from 64% to 67% and specificity ranged from 85% to 97%. For magnetic resonance imaging (MRI), sensitivity ranged from 86% to 100% and specificity was 93%. For non-routine IBTR detection, sensitivity and specificity for surveillance mammography ranged from 50% to 83% and from 57% to 75%, respectively, and for MRI from 93% to 100% and from 88% to 96%, respectively. For routine MCBC detection, one study reported sensitivity of 67% and specificity of 50% for both surveillance mammography and MRI, although this was a highly select population. Data set analysis showed that IBTR has an adverse effect on survival. Furthermore, women experiencing a second tumour measuring >20 mm in diameter were at a significantly greater risk of death than those with no recurrence or those whose tumour was <10 mm in diameter. In the base-case analysis, the strategy with the highest net benefit, and most likely to be considered cost-effective, was surveillance mammography alone, provided every 12 months at a societal willingness to pay for a quality-adjusted life-year of either £20,000 or £30,000. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for surveillance mammography alone every 12 months compared with no surveillance was £4727. Few studies met the review inclusion criteria and none of the studies was a randomised controlled trial. The limited and variable nature of the data available precluded any quantitative analysis. There was no useable evidence contained in the Breast Cancer Registry database to assess the effectiveness of surveillance mammography directly. The results of the economic model should be considered exploratory and interpreted with caution given the paucity of data available to inform the economic model. Surveillance is likely to improve survival and patients should gain maximum benefit through optimal use of resources, with those women with a greater likelihood of developing IBTR or MCBC being offered more comprehensive and more frequent surveillance. Further evidence is required to make a robust and informed judgement on the effectiveness of surveillance mammography and follow-up. The utility of national data sets could be improved and there is a need for high-quality, direct head-to-head studies comparing the diagnostic accuracy of tests used in the surveillance population. The National Institute for Health Research Health Technology Assessment programme.Health technology assessment (Winchester, England). 09/2011; 15(34):v-vi, 1-322.
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ABSTRACT: To assess the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of photodynamic diagnosis (PDD) compared with white light cystoscopy (WLC), and urine biomarkers [fluorescence in situ hybridisation (FISH), ImmunoCyt, NMP22] and cytology for the detection and follow-up of bladder cancer. Major electronic databases including MEDLINE, MEDLINE In-Process, EMBASE, BIOSIS, Science Citation Index, Health Management Information Consortium and the Cochrane Controlled Trials Register were searched until April 2008. A systematic review of the literature was carried out according to standard methods. An economic model was constructed to assess the cost-effectiveness of alternative diagnostic and follow-up strategies for the diagnosis and management of patients with bladder cancer. In total, 27 studies reported PDD test performance. In pooled estimates [95% confidence interval (CI)] for patient-level analysis, PDD had higher sensitivity than WLC [92% (80% to 100%) versus 71% (49% to 93%)] but lower specificity [57% (36% to 79%) versus 72% (47% to 96%)]. Similar results were found for biopsy-level analysis. The median sensitivities (range) of PDD and WLC for detecting lower risk, less aggressive tumours were similar for patient-level detection [92% (20% to 95%) versus 95% (8% to 100%)], but sensitivity was higher for PDD than for WLC for biopsy-level detection [96% (88% to 100%) versus 88% (74% to 100%)]. For more aggressive, higher-risk tumours the median sensitivity of PDD for both patient-level [89% (6% to 100%)] and biopsy-level [99% (54% to 100%)] detection was higher than those of WLC [56% (0% to 100%) and 67% (0% to 100%) respectively]. Four RCTs comparing PDD with WLC reported effectiveness outcomes. PDD use at transurethral resection of bladder tumour resulted in fewer residual tumours at check cystoscopy [relative risk, RR, 0.37 (95% CI 0.20 to 0.69)] and longer recurrence-free survival [RR 1.37 (95% CI 1.18 to 1.59)] compared with WLC. In 71 studies reporting the performance of biomarkers and cytology in detecting bladder cancer, sensitivity (95% CI) was highest for ImmunoCyt [84% (77% to 91%)] and lowest for cytology [44% (38% to 51%)], whereas specificity was highest for cytology [96% (94% to 98%)] and lowest for ImmunoCyt [75% (68% to 83%)]. In the cost-effectiveness analysis the most effective strategy in terms of true positive cases (44) and life-years (11.66) [flexible cystoscopy (CSC) and ImmunoCyt followed by PDD in initial diagnosis and CSC followed by WLC in follow-up] had an incremental cost per life-year of over 270,000 pounds. The least effective strategy [cytology followed by WLC in initial diagnosis (average cost over 20 years 1403 pounds, average life expectancy 11.59)] was most likely to be considered cost-effective when society's willingness to pay was less than 20,000 pounds per life-year. No strategy was cost-effective more than 50% of the time, but four of the eight strategies in the probabilistic sensitivity analysis (three involving a biomarker or PDD) were each associated with a 20% chance of being considered cost-effective. In sensitivity analyses the results were most sensitive to the pretest probability of disease (5% in the base case). The advantages of PDD's higher sensitivity in detecting bladder cancer have to be weighed against the disadvantages of a higher false-positive rate. Taking into account the assumptions made in the model, strategies involving biomarkers and/or PDD provide additional benefits at a cost that society might be willing to pay. Strategies replacing WLC with PDD provide more life-years but it is unclear whether they are worth the extra cost.Health technology assessment (Winchester, England). 01/2010; 14(4):1-331, iii-iv.
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ABSTRACT: Objectives: To assess the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of minimal incision approaches to total hip replacement (THR) for arthritis of the hip. Data sources: Major electronic databases were searched from 1966 to 2007. Relevant websites were also examined and experts in the field were consulted. Review methods: Studies of minimal (one or two) incision THR compared with standard THR were assessed for inclusion in the review of clinical effectiveness. A systematic review of economic evaluations comparing a minimal incision approach to standard THR was also performed and the estimates from the systematic review of clinical effectiveness were incorporated into an economic model. Utilities data were sourced to estimate quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs). Due to lack of data, no economic analysis was conducted for the two mini-incision surgical method. Results: Nine randomised controlled trials (RCTs), 17 non-randomised comparative studies, six case series and one registry were found to be useful for the comparison of single mini-incision THR with standard THR. One RCT compared two mini-incision THR with standard THR, and two RCTs, five non-randomised comparative studies and two case series compared two mini-incision with single mini-incision THR. The RCTs were of moderate quality. Most had fewer than 200 patients and had a follow-up period of less than 1 year. The single mini-incision THR may have some perioperative advantages, e.g. blood loss [weighted mean difference (WMD) –57.71 ml, p < 0.01] and shorter operative time, of uncertain practical significance. It may also offer a shorter recovery period and greater patient satisfaction. Evidence on long-term outcomes (especially revision) is too limited to be useful. Lack of data prevented subgroup analysis. With respect to the two-incision approach, data were suggestive of shorter recovery compared with single-incision THR, but conclusions must be treated with caution. The costs to the health service, per patient, of single mini-incision THR depend upon assumptions made, but are similar at 1 year (£7060 vs £7350 for standard THR). For a 40-year time horizon the costs were £11,618 for mini-incision and £11,899 for standard THR. Two existing economic evaluations were identified, but they added little, if any, value to the current evidence base owing to their limited quality. In the economic model, mini-incision THR was less costly and provided slightly more QALYs in both the 1- and 40-year analyses. The mean QALYs at 1 year were 0.677 for standard THR and 0.695 for mini-incision THR. At 40 years, the mean QALYs were 8.463 for standard THR and 8.480 for mini-incision. At 1 year the probabilistic sensitivity analyses indicate that mini-incision THR has a 95% probability of being cost-effective if society’s willingness to pay for a QALY were up to £50,000. This is reduced to approximately 55% for the 40-year analysis. The results were driven by the assumption of a 1-month earlier return to usual activities and a decreased hospital length of stay and operation duration following mini-incision THR. If mini-incision THR actually required more intensive use of resources it would become approximately £200 more expensive and would only be cost-effective (cost per QALY > £30,000) if recovery was 1.5 weeks faster. A threshold analysis around risk of revision showed, using the same cost per QALY threshold, mini-incision THR would have to have no more than a 7.5% increase in revisions compared with standard THR for it to be no longer considered cost-effective (one more revision for every 200 procedures performed). Further sensitivity analysis involved relaxing assumptions of equal long-term outcomes where possible. and broadly similar results to the base-case analysis were found in this and further sensitivity analyses. Conclusions: Compared with standard THR, minimal incision THR has small perioperative advantages in terms of blood loss and operation time. It may offer a shorter hospital stay and quicker recovery. It appears to have a similar procedure cost to standard THR, but evidence on its longer term performance is very limited. Further long-term follow-up data on costs and outcomes including analysis of subgroups of interest to the NHS would strengthen the current economic evaluation. The Health Services Research Unit and the Health Economics Research Unit are both core funded by the Chief Scientist Office of the Scottish Government Health Directorates. Peer reviewed Publisher PDFHealth technology assessment (Winchester, England) 07/2008; · 4.03 Impact Factor