Jan Lindström

University of Glasgow, Glasgow, Scotland, United Kingdom

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Publications (28)141.68 Total impact

  • [Show abstract] [Hide abstract]
    ABSTRACT: Using a threshold-triggering framework, we extend the Moran effect to also cover timing of life history events. With two varieties of the model we demonstrate emergence of synchrony in seasonal and annual timing that levels off against distance between sampling sites compared. In the first model we address within-season timing over years. The Finnish data on leafing of European aspen support the model predictions in al detail explored. In the second example the focus is on annual match of seed production in the Finnish Scotch pine and Norway spruce. The model predictions find their match with the data. We show that it is possible to extend Moran’s (1953) idea to encompass events not directly regulated by density-dependent feedback. It is perhaps not too surprising that phenological events can be synchronized in much the same way as population fluctuations. KeywordsLife history-Phenology-Spatial synchrony-The Moran effect-Threshold-triggering
    11/2009: pages 321-338;
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    Esa Ranta, Jan Lindström, Harto Lindén, Pekka Helle
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    ABSTRACT: Harvest data are commonly used as proxy for count data, especially in studies of long-term temporal and spatial patterns of population fluctuations. However, usually the concurrence of the conclusions based on different types of data is impossible to verify due to the lack of count data. Here, we use annual (1964–2004) harvest and population census data for capercaillie, black grouse and hazel grouse from 14 game management districts covering Finland, and demonstrate some mismatch in the information that these data sets provide. Overall, linear regressions of annual harvest against population count give a reasonable fit, but the slopes are less than 1 in every species. Harvest bags have been proportionally larger in north and eastern Finland than in southwestern Finland, with marked species-specific differences. Considering population variation, the CV% in the census data (30–50%) is consistently smaller than it is in the harvest data (60–70%). Most importantly, conclusions on the spatio-temporal patterns of the population dynamics are different if based on harvest rather than count data. In capercaillie, synchrony decreases faster with distance according to the harvest data, while in black grouse and hazel grouse the census data show the steeper decline. In addition, the autocorrelation coefficients in the census time series are higher in capercaillie and black grouse than in harvest data, but in hazel grouse the opposite is true. Finally, the parameter estimates for a second order autoregressive model using different data sets differ, and these differences are species-specific. Despite the fact that annual harvest is a positive and linear function of annual grouse population density, the pattern of population dynamics derived from the bag data is different from that shown by the census data. This result urges caution in using wildlife bag data as reliable indices of population dynamics.deceased August 2008.
    Oikos 09/2008; 117(10):1461 - 1468. · 3.33 Impact Factor
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    Oliver Krüger, Jan Lindström
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    ABSTRACT: Summary 1. The concept of site-dependent population regulation combines the ideas of Ideal Free Distribution-type of habitat settlement and density dependence in a vital rate mediated by habitat heterogeneity. The latter is also known as habitat heterogeneity hypothesis. Site-dependent population regulation hypothesis predicts that increasing population density should lead to inhabitation of increasingly poor territories and decreasing per capita population growth rate. An alternative mechanism for population regulation in a territorial breeding system is interference competition. However, this would be expected to cause a more even decrease in individual success with increasing density than site-dependent regulation. 2. We tested these ideas using long-term (1975-99) population data from a goshawk Accipiter gentilis population in Eastern Westphalia, Germany. 3. Goshawk territory occupancy patterns and reproduction parameters support predic- tions of site-dependent population regulation: territories that were occupied more often and earlier had a higher mean brood size. Fecundity did not decrease with increasing density in best territories. 4. Using time-series modelling, we also showed that the most parsimonious model explaining per capita population growth rate included annual mean habitat quality, weather during the chick rearing and autumn period and density as variables. This model explained 63% of the variation in per capita growth rate. The need for including habitat quality in the time-series model provides further support for the idea of site-dependent population regulation in goshawk.
    Journal of Animal Ecology 07/2008; 70(2):173 - 181. · 4.84 Impact Factor
  • Esa Ranta, Veijo Kaitala, Mike Fowler, Jan Lindström
    08/2007: pages 89-110;
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    ABSTRACT: Temporal asymmetry in patterns of regional climate change may jeopardize the match between the proximate and ultimate cues of the timing of breeding. The consequences on short- and long-term population dynamics and trends as well as the underlying mechanisms are, however, often unknown. Using long-term data from Finland, we demonstrate that black grouse (Tetrao tetrix) have responded to spring warming by advancing both egg-laying and hatching. However, early summer (the time of hatching) has not advanced, and chicks have to face colder post-hatching conditions. Demonstrating that these conditions are critical to post-hatching survival, we show that chicks are increasingly suffering higher mortality because they hatch too early. Consequently, breeding success and population size has severely declined over the past four decades. Finally, we modelled the impact of this particular climate change scenario on population dynamics and show that the mismatch can further explain the observed collapse of cyclic fluctuations. Because the evolutionary response of grouse is lagging behind the novel selective pressures, seasonally asymmetric climate change is likely to constitute an important determinant of future short- and long-term changes in the dynamics of black grouse populations.
    Proceedings of the Royal Society B: Biological Sciences 09/2006; 273(1597):2009-16. · 5.68 Impact Factor
  • Esa Ranta, Veijo Kaitala, Jan Lindström
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    ABSTRACT: The records of Canadian lynx fur returns indicate rather regular self-repeating pattern with 9–11 yr cycles That the lynx populations over a vast geographical range fluctuate in synchrony appears to be well established The finding that the degree of synchrony levels off with increasing distance among provinces compared to increase again between the furthest–away provinces (O–shape) has largely escaped notice in previous analyses Moreover, the pattern of synchrony against distance varies depending on the period of time used m the analysis, sometimes there is O–shape, sometimes mere negative correlation, and sometimes no relationship whatsoever The entire rich pattern of lynx dynamics in space and time can be emulated by sets of local subpopulations acknowledging dispersal among populations This all suggest that local dynamics of populations cannot be fully understood unless the significance of spatial linkage of subpopulations via dispersal of individuals is acknowledged
    Ecography 06/2006; 20(5):454 - 460. · 5.12 Impact Factor
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    ABSTRACT: We studied the effects of ecological variables on the birth sex ratio of Soay sheep (Ovis aries) lambs on the island of Hirta, in the St Kilda archipelago, Scotland. Both individual- and population-level models were constructed. In the individual-based model, only population size was significantly associated with the sex of a lamb, with the probability of giving birth to a male lamb being positively associated with population size. However, this model explained a very small proportion of the variance in birth sex ratio. A multiple regression analysis of the annual population birth sex ratio also showed a slight increase in the proportion of males born in years following high autumn population density, but this result was not statistically significant. Population growth rate, Julian birthday, litter size, mother's age and weight, and the weather conditions during the gestation and neonatal period did not explain significant variation in the birth sex ratio.
    Behavioral Ecology and Sociobiology 11/2002; 53(1):25-30. · 2.75 Impact Factor
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    ABSTRACT: Summary 1. We performed an extensive statistical modelling study on the population fluctuations and population growth rates of 15 raptor species in the Kalahari desert in South Africa. 2. The correlation pattern between rainfall and population abundance changed sys- tematically with raptor body weight and diet type. The abundance of heavier raptors feeding on larger prey-items had lower correlations with rainfall than lighter raptors feeding on small prey-items. Whereas raptor species feeding on small prey-items were more affected by immediate rainfall, species feeding on large prey-items were more affected by rainfall in the previous year. 3. Population abundances were explained most parsimoniously by direct and delayed density dependence and rainfall during the current and previous breeding season. Inter- specific competition was never a predictor variable. Population abundances of species best described by rainfall fed on larger prey-items than population abundances of species best described by density dependence. 4. Population growth rates were always best described by direct density dependence. The strength of density dependence was positively correlated with reproduction rate, due mainly to Falconiform species having higher reproduction rates than Accipitrid species. 5. Shifting from the species to the guild level, we found that abundance and biomass shares of feeding guilds did not vary significantly over time, supporting the hypothesis of guild constancy.
    Journal of Animal Ecology 07/2002; 71(4):603 - 613. · 4.84 Impact Factor
  • Jan Lindström, Hanna Kokko
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    ABSTRACT: Cohort effects originate from environmental conditions, and can have long-term consequences for the cohort's performance. It has been proposed that cohort effects tend to increase population fluctuations. However, differences among individuals, which cohort effects introduce into a population, usually have stabilizing effects. There are thus two different predictions regarding the impact of cohort effects on population fluctuations. We argue that it is important to distinguish between environmental variability and its long-term effects on individual quality, and approach the question with a population model that can include or exclude such effects. We show that the influence of cohort effects depends on the inherent dynamics: cohort effects can have stabilizing effects if dynamics are inherently unstable. However, the most common outcome is destabilization whenever cohort effects act on top of inherently stable dynamics. Intriguingly, both alternatives are due to individual differences affecting the structure of density dependence in a similar way.
    Ecology Letters 04/2002; 5(3):338 - 344. · 17.95 Impact Factor
  • Tim Coulson, Jan Lindström, Peter Cotgreave
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    ABSTRACT: It is very difficult to quantitatively determine how the life history of a population of animals affects the population size, but this is important for conservation planning. In their Perspective, Coulson and colleagues discuss new work ( Sæther et al.) that uses comparative population dynamics to show that the different life histories of species result in predictable differences in population size fluctuations.
    Science 04/2002; 295(5562):2023-4. · 31.20 Impact Factor
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    ABSTRACT: Summary1. Density-dependent and climatic conditions experienced by individuals before and after birth differ considerably between cohorts. Such early environmental variability has the potential to create persistent fitness differences among cohorts. Here we test the hypothesis that conditions experienced by individuals in their early development will have long-term effects on their life history traits.2. We approached this by analysing and contrasting the effects of climate (the North Atlantic Oscillation, NAO) and population density at year of birth on cohort birth weight, birth date, litter size, age of maturity, survival and fecundity of Soay sheep, Ovies aries L., ewes in the population on the island of Hirta, St Kilda, Scotland.3. Significant intercohort variations were found in life history traits. Cohorts born after warm, wet and windy (high NAO) winters were lighter at birth, born earlier, less likely to have a twin and matured later than cohorts born following cold and dry (low NAO) winters. High population densities in the winter preceding birth also had a negative effect on birth weight, birth date and litter size, whereas high postnatal densities delayed age of first reproduction.4. High NAO winters preceding birth depressed juvenile survival but increased adult survival and fecundity. The negative influence of high NAO winters on juvenile survival is likely to be related to mothers’ compromised physical condition while the cohort is in utero, whereas the positive influence on adult survival and fecundity may relate to the improved postnatal forage conditions following high NAO winters. High pre- and postnatal population densities decreased juvenile (neonatal, yearling) and adult (2–4 years) survivorship but had no significant effect fecundity.
    Journal of Animal Ecology 12/2001; 70(5):721 - 729. · 4.84 Impact Factor
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    O Krüger, J Lindström, W Amos
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    ABSTRACT: Common buzzards (Buteo buteo) show a plumage polymorphism that appears to be maintained by heterozygote advantage and allows a maladaptive form of mate choice to persist. The light and dark morphs have a much lower fitness than the presumed heterozygous intermediate morph, but are replenished through Mendelian segregation in intermediate-intermediate pairs. Light and dark morphs could maximize their fitness by mating light with dark to produce all intermediate offspring, but instead choose partners of their own color, thereby producing broods of minimally fit homozygotes. Such maladaptive behavior argues forcefully against mate choice based on "good genes," and its persistence is best explained by heterozygote advantage maintaining the polymorphism coupled with nongenetic mate choice based on sexual imprinting. Modeling different patterns of mate choice shows that random mating and preference for own morph fit our data poorly, whereas preference for mother's morph yields a good fit.
    Evolution 07/2001; 55(6):1207-14. · 4.86 Impact Factor
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    Oliver Krüger, Jan Lindström, William Amos
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    ABSTRACT: — Common buzzards (Buteo buteo) show a plumage polymorphism that appears to be maintained by heterozygote advantage and allows a maladaptive form of mate choice to persist. The light and dark morphs have a much lower fitness than the presumed heterozygous intermediate morph, but are replenished through Mendelian segregation in intermediate-intermediate pairs. Light and dark morphs could maximize their fitness by mating light with dark to produce all intermediate offspring, but instead choose partners of their own color, thereby producing broods of minimally fit homozygotes. Such maladaptive behavior argues forcefully against mate choice based on “good genes,” and its persistence is best explained by heterozygote advantage maintaining the polymorphism coupled with nongenetic mate choice based on sexual imprinting. Modeling different patterns of mate choice shows that random mating and preference for own morph fit our data poorly, whereas preference for mother's morph yields a good fit.
    Evolution 05/2001; 55(6):1207 - 1214. · 4.86 Impact Factor
  • J Lindström, E Ranta, H Kokko, P Lundberg, V Kaitala
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    ABSTRACT: We shall examine the impact of Charles S. Elton's 1924 article on periodic fluctuations in animal populations on the development of modern population ecology. We argue that his impact has been substantial and that during the past 75 years of research on multi-annual periodic fluctuations in numbers of voles, lemmings, hares, lynx and game animals he has contributed much to the contemporary understanding of the causes and consequences of population regulation. Elton was convinced that the cause of the regular fluctuations was climatic variation. To support this conclusion, he examined long-term population data then available. Despite his firm belief in a climatic cause of the self-repeating periodic dynamics which many species display, Elton was insightful and far-sighted enough to outline many of the other hypotheses since put forward as an explanation for the enigmatic long-term dynamics of some animal populations. An interesting, but largely neglected aspect in Elton's paper is that it ends with speculation regarding the evolutionary consequences of periodic population fluctuations. The modern understanding of these issues will also be scrutinised here. In population ecology, Elton's 1924 paper has spawned a whole industry of research on populations displaying multi-annual periodicity. Despite the efforts of numerous research teams and individuals focusing on the origins of multi-annual population cycles, and despite the early availability of different explanatory hypotheses, we are still lacking rigorous tests of some of these hypotheses and, consequently, a consensus of the causes of periodic fluctuations in animal populations. Although Elton would have been happy to see so much effort spent on cyclic populations, we also argue that it is unfortunate if this focus on a special case of population dynamics should distract our attention from more general problems in population and community dynamics.
    Biological Reviews 03/2001; 76(1):129-58. · 10.26 Impact Factor
  • H Kokko, J Lindström, E Ranta
    Conservation of exploited species, 01/2001: pages 301-322; Cambridge University Press, Cambridge.
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    Oliver Krüger, Jan Lindström
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    ABSTRACT: We studied annual and lifetime reproductive success (LRS) of both sexes of common buzzard Buteo buteo in eastern Westphalia, Germany. We followed a bottom-up approach starting from individual breeding attempts, over lifetime reproductive success to derive population demography. Annual breeding performance and survival followed a quadratic relationship with breeding experience; individuals starting their breeding career were less likely to survive and breed successfully than birds of intermediate breeding experience. According to an analysis of selection gradients, both the opportunity and intensity of selection peaked in the early stages of the breeding career. The distribution of both LRS and another fitness measure, , was highly skewed, with ca 17% of adult birds producing 50% of fledglings in both sexes. Besides breeding life span and number of breeding attempts, habitat quality and plumage morph were significant predictors of LRS. There were strong differences in LRS and  between the plumage morphs in both sexes: intermediate pigmented buzzards were much more successful than either dark or light ones. There was no significant difference between buzzard cohorts either in LRS or , nor did these fitness measures differ between individuals starting their breeding career at different conditions of food availability. Based on individual life histories, we formed a transition matrix and analysed its properties to study the population as a whole. This analysis showed that the population growth rate was close to unity (0.906, bootstrapped 95% confidence limits: 0.834 and 0.962). Analysis of reproductive values and elasticities further emphasised colour morph differences: the contribution of intermediate individuals to population growth greatly exceeded that of dark or light individuals. Thus most phenomena on all levels from individual breeding attempts over lifetime reproductive success to population demography can be explained by the fitness differences between the colour morphs with the intermediate morph maintaining the current population renewal potential.
    Oikos 01/2001; 93(2). · 3.33 Impact Factor
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    ABSTRACT: Inequalities in reproductive success or resource acquisition are fundamental to evolution and population ecology. There is, however, no unique way to measure inequality. We review 21 measures used to quantify it and clarify the conceptual difference between inequality and skewness. In two very different families of distributions, all indices except three give higher values for more unequal distributions of resources, although some of them are poor at distinguishing between similar inequality values. When applied correctly by testing against a null hypothesis of no inequality among individuals, most indices can therefore be used to detect deviations from randomness, but with varying ease as most lack statistical tables and rely on resampling techniques instead. As an example to test the performance of the 21 indices, we used each index to analyze 71 data sets of unequal mating success in leks. In pairwise comparisons, 24% of the indices fail to show a positive intercorrelation. This reflects differences in how indices incorporate variation in the number of competitors and mean acquisition of the resource. All indices are sensitive to these aspects if inequality is measured in data arising from different distributions. These results illustrate the general conclusion that a unique "best" solution is not available; each measure presents its own definition of inequality. The choice of an inequality index requires specifying the null expectations and interpreting deviating values in relation to the biological question being addressed. This means, for example, considering individual male mating success in the context of lekking or relating the mass distribution of individual plants to alternative hypotheses about competition in plant population ecology. When sample sizes vary, testing robustness by using several measures is advisable.
    The American Naturalist 10/1999; 154(3):358-382. · 4.55 Impact Factor
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    Jan Lindström
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    ABSTRACT: Conditions experienced during early development affect survival and reproductive performance in many bird and mammal species. Factors affecting early development can therefore have an important influence both on the optimization of life histories and on population dynamics. The understanding of these evolutionary and dynamic consequences is just starting to emerge.
    Trends in Ecology & Evolution 10/1999; · 15.39 Impact Factor
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    ABSTRACT: The evolution of leks (aggregations of males displaying to females) cannot be explained solely by an increasing average gain in matings for each male as group size increases. This is because the mating skew, that is, the inequality among males in mating success, is often high and may vary with lek size. Here, we show that the common observation that matings become more evenly divided as lek size increases is also insufficient to explain by itself the benefits of aggregating. The benefits to individual males are highly sensitive to the exact relationship between mating skew and lek size, and very similar relationships can lead to opposite predictions concerning individual benefits. With data on published mating success for 18 species (71 leks), we show that different species have very similar skew versus lek size relationships. With current sample sizes, however, there is insufficient statistical power to distinguish between completely different alternatives concerning individual optima of males. Copyright 1998 The Association for the Study of Animal Behaviour
    Animal Behaviour 10/1998; 56(3):755-612. · 3.07 Impact Factor
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    Hanna Kokko, Jan Lindström
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    ABSTRACT: Birth-pulse populations are often characterized with discrete-time models, that use a single function to relate the post-breeding population size to the post-breeding size of the previous year. Recently, models of seasonal density dependence have been constructed that emphasize interactions during shorter time periods also. Here, we study two very simple forms of density-dependent mortality, that lead to Ricker and Beverton-Holt type population dynamics when viewed over the whole year. We explore the consequences of harvest timing to equilibrium population sizes under such density dependence. Whether or not individual mortality compensates for the harvested quota, the timing of harvesting has a strong impact on the sustainability of a harvesting quota. Further, we show that careless discretization of a continuous mortality scheme may seriously underestimate the reduction in population size caused by hunting and overestimate the sustainable yield. We also introduce the concept of the demographic value of an individual, which reflects the expected contribution to population size over time in the presence of density dependence. Finally, we discuss the possibility of calculating demographic values as means of optimizing harvest strategies. Here, a Pareto optimal harvest strategy will minimize the loss of demographic value from the population for a given yield.
    Ecological Modelling 07/1998; 110(3):293–304. · 2.07 Impact Factor

Publication Stats

1k Citations
141.68 Total Impact Points

Institutions

  • 2002–2009
    • University of Glasgow
      Glasgow, Scotland, United Kingdom
  • 1998–2008
    • University of Cambridge
      • Department of Zoology
      Cambridge, ENG, United Kingdom
  • 2001
    • University of Jyväskylä
      • Department of Biological and Environmental Science
      Jyväskylä, Western Finland, Finland