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Meteorologische Zeitschrift. 11(2002-3):151-160.
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M. I. Hegglin,
A. Gettelman,
P. Hoor,
R. Krichevsky,
G. L. Manney,
L. L. Pan,
S.-W. Son,
G. Stiller,
S. Tilmes,
K. A. Walker, [......],
G. Pitari,
D. A. Plummer,
J. A. Pyle,
E. Rozanov,
J. F. Scinocca,
K Shibata,
D. Smale, H. Teyssedre,
W Tian,
Y Yamashita
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ABSTRACT: A multimodel assessment of the performance of chemistry-climate models (CCMs) in the extratropical upper troposphere/lower stratosphere (UTLS) is conducted for the first time. Process-oriented diagnostics are used to validate dynamical and transport characteristics of 18 CCMs using meteorological analyses and aircraft and satellite observations. The main dynamical and chemical climatological characteristics of the extratropical UTLS are generally well represented by the models, despite the limited horizontal and vertical resolution. The seasonal cycle of lowermost stratospheric mass is realistic, however with a wide spread in its mean value. A tropopause inversion layer is present in most models, although the maximum in static stability is located too high above the tropopause and is somewhat too weak, as expected from limited model resolution. Similar comments apply to the extratropical tropopause transition layer. The seasonality in lower stratospheric chemical tracers is consistent with the seasonality in the Brewer-Dobson circulation. Both vertical and meridional tracer gradients are of similar strength to those found in observations. Models that perform less well tend to use a semi-Lagrangian transport scheme and/or have a very low resolution. Two models, and the multimodel mean, score consistently well on all diagnostics, while seven other models score well on all diagnostics except the seasonal cycle of water vapor. Only four of the models are consistently below average. The lack of tropospheric chemistry in most models limits their evaluation in the upper troposphere. Finally, the UTLS is relatively sparsely sampled by observations, limiting our ability to quantitatively evaluate many aspects of model performance.
Journal of Geophysical Research D: Atmospheres.
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S.-W. Son,
E. P. Gerber,
J. Perlwitz,
L. M. Polvani,
N. P. Gillett,
K.-H. Seo,
V. Eyring,
T. G. Shepherd,
D. Waugh,
H Akiyoshi, [......],
G. Pitari,
D. A. Plummer,
J. Pyle,
E. Rozanov,
J. F. Scinocca,
K Shibata,
D. Smale, H. Teyssedre,
W Tian,
Y Yamashita
Journal of Geophysical Research D: Atmospheres.
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L. D. Oman,
D. A. Plummer,
D. W. Waugh,
J. Austin,
J. F. Scinocca,
A. R. Douglass,
R. J. Salawitch,
T. Canty,
H Akiyoshi,
Slimane Bekki, [......],
G. Pitari,
J. Pyle,
E. Rozanov,
T. G. Shepherd,
K Shibata,
R. S. Stolarski, H. Teyssedre,
W Tian,
Y Yamashita,
J. R. Ziemke
Journal of Geophysical Research D: Atmospheres.
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A. Gettelman,
M. I. Hegglin,
S.-W. Son,
J. Kim,
M Fujiwara,
T. Birner,
S. Kremser,
M. Rex,
J. A. Anel,
H Akiyoshi, [......],
G. Pitari,
D. A. Plummer,
J. A. Pyle,
E. Rozanov,
J. Scinocca,
T. G. Shepherd,
K Shibata,
D. Smale, H. Teyssedre,
W Tian
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ABSTRACT: The performance of 18 coupled Chemistry Climate Models (CCMs) in the Tropical Tropopause Layer (TTL) is evaluated using qualitative and quantitative diagnostics. Trends in tropopause quantities in the tropics and the extratropical Upper Troposphere and Lower Stratosphere (UTLS) are analyzed. A quantitative grading methodology for evaluating CCMs is extended to include variability and used to develop four different grades for tropical tropopause temperature and pressure, water vapor and ozone. Four of the 18 models and the multi‐model mean meet quantitative and qualitative standards for reproducing key processes in the TTL. Several diagnostics are performed on a subset of the models analyzing the Tropopause Inversion Layer (TIL), Lagrangian cold point and TTL transit time. Historical decreases in tropical tropopause pressure and decreases in water vapor are simulated, lending confidence to future projections. The models simulate continued decreases in tropopause pressure in the 21st century, along with ∼1K increases per century in cold point tropopause temperature and 0.5–1 ppmv per century increases in water vapor above the tropical tropopause. TTL water vapor increases below the cold point. In two models, these trends are associated with 35% increases in TTL cloud fraction. These changes indicate significant perturbations to TTL processes, specifically to deep convective heating and humidity transport. Ozone in the extratropical lowermost stratosphere has significant and hemispheric asymmetric trends. O3 is projected to increase by nearly 30% due to ozone recovery in the Southern Hemisphere (SH) and due to enhancements in the stratospheric circulation. These UTLS ozone trends may have significant effects in the TTL and the troposphere.
Journal of Geophysical Research D: Atmospheres.
