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ABSTRACT: Virological residual activity (VRA) denotes the degree of HIV RNA suppression achieved by antiretroviral therapy in the presence of resistant virus. This concept is particularly important in resource-limited settings, where rapid switching after detection of virological failure may not be feasible. Using data from the NORA trial, we estimated VRA for two regimens-zidovudine-lamivudine-abacavir (ZDV-3TC-ABC) and zidovudine-lamivudine-nevirapine (ZDV-3TC-NVP)-and related this to the phenotypic drug sensitivity of the component drugs in the two regimens. Plasma samples at weeks 0, 48, and 96 were retrospectively assayed for HIV-1 RNA, and genotypic/phenotypic resistance testing was performed if HIV-1 RNA exceeded 1,000 copies/ml. Virological residual activity (VRA) was defined as the difference between log(10)(HIV RNA) at week 48 or 96 and week 0 and related to 50% inhibitory concentration (IC(50)) relative to wild-type virus for ZDV and ABC (fold change [FC]). Twenty-seven samples in the ZDV-3TC-NVP group and 56 in the ZDV-3TC-ABC group contributed to the analysis. Mean VRA was significantly higher in the ZDV-3TC-ABC group than in the ZDV-3TC-NVP at week 48 (1.62 versus 0.90) and week 96 (1.29 versus 0.78). There was a weak and nonsignificant relationship between VRA and ZDV FC, with VRA decreasing by 0.1 log(10) copies/ml per 2-fold increase in ZDV. The association with ABC FC was much stronger, with a marked reduction in VRA occurring at ABC FC values greater than approximately 2. This information should be considered in future treatment guidelines relevant to resource-poor settings.
Antimicrobial Agents and Chemotherapy 07/2011; 55(10):4575-80. · 4.84 Impact Factor
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ABSTRACT: OBJECTIVES To estimate the risk of death and examine the predictors of death and virological/immunological response, following diagnosis of multidrug-resistant (MDR) HIV-1 in a UK multicentre cohort of HIV-infected individuals. METHODS Five hundred and seventy-two patients were identified with MDR HIV-1 between 1997 and 2004. Factors associated with survival and virological/immunological response 24-48 weeks after MDR diagnosis were determined by the Poisson and linear regression, respectively. RESULTS Patient characteristics: 86% males; median age 39 years; median CD4 and viral load (VL) at MDR diagnosis 230 cells/mm3 and 4.2 log10 copies/mL; median number of antiretroviral drugs previously exposed to 8. Sixty patients died over a median follow-up of 31 months (IQR: 17-50), giving an estimated mortality rate of 3.7 deaths per 100 person-years (95% CI 2.9-4.7) following MDR diagnosis. In adjusted analysis, higher CD4 count, lower VL, more recent calendar year, lower number of antiretroviral drugs previously exposed to and greater age at MDR diagnosis were associated with an increased chance of survival. There was some evidence of a better virological response at 24-48 weeks after MDR diagnosis in patients who changed regimen compared with patients who did not change regimen. CONCLUSIONS The risk of death following MDR diagnosis may be at least 3-fold the risk observed overall in HIV-infected individuals. Changing antiretroviral therapy following emergence of MDR HIV-1 may be associated with improved short-term virological response.
Journal of Antimicrobial Chemotherapy 04/2008; 61(3):705-13. · 5.07 Impact Factor
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ABSTRACT: To assess the clinical utility of phenotypic resistance testing in addition to genotypic resistance testing among HIV-1-infected patients experiencing virologic failure and with limited therapeutic options.
Multicenter randomized trial.
Patients were eligible if a decision had been made to switch antiretroviral therapy, the most recent HIV-1 RNA plasma viral load (VL) exceeded 2000 copies/mL, and the clinician was unable to select a potent regimen of 3 or more drugs without access to a resistance test. Subjects were randomized to genotypic resistance testing alone (G arm) or to genotypic plus phenotypic testing (G + P arm). Patients had access to resistance testing at any time during follow-up (minimum of 1 year) according to the original allocation. The primary end point was change in plasma VL from baseline at 12 months.
Three hundred eleven patients were recruited between February 2000 and July 2001. At baseline, mean VL and CD4 count were 4.23 log10 copies/mL and 275 cells/mm, respectively, and subjects had previous exposure to a mean of 7.7 antiretroviral drugs. There was no appreciable difference between the study arms in the drug regimens prescribed after randomization. Mean reduction in VL load at 12 months was similar in the 2 arms (G: 1.37 log10 reduction, G + P: 1.28 log10 reduction; P = 0.77), as was the proportion of subjects with VL <50 copies/mL (G: 35%, G + P: 27%).
The study did not demonstrate added value of phenotypic resistance testing in conjunction with genotypic resistance testing in patients with limited therapeutic options.
JAIDS Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndromes 04/2005; 38(5):553-9. · 4.43 Impact Factor
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D M Gibb,
T Duong,
P A Tookey,
M Sharland,
G Tudor-Williams,
V Novelli,
K Butler,
A Riordan,
L Farrelly,
J Masters,
C S Peckham, D T Dunn
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ABSTRACT: To describe changes in demographic factors, disease progression, hospital admissions, and use of antiretroviral therapy in children with HIV.
Active surveillance through the national study of HIV in pregnancy and childhood (NSHPC) and additional data from a subset of children in the collaborative HIV paediatric study (CHIPS).
United Kingdom and Ireland.
944 children with perinatally acquired HIV-1 under clinical care.
Changes over time in progression to AIDS and death, hospital admission rates, and use of antiretroviral therapy.
944 children with perinatally acquired HIV were reported in the United Kingdom and Ireland by October 2002; 628 (67%) were black African, 205 (22%) were aged > or = 10 years at last follow up, 193 (20%) are known to have died. The proportion of children presenting who were born abroad increased from 20% in 1994-5 to 60% during 2000-2. Mortality was stable before 1997 at 9.3 per 100 child years at risk but fell to 2.0 in 2001-2 (trend P < 0.001). Progression to AIDS also declined (P < 0.001). From 1997 onwards the proportion of children on three or four drug antiretroviral therapy increased. Hospital admission rates declined by 80%, but with more children in follow up the absolute number of admissions fell by only 26%.
In children with HIV infection, mortality, AIDS, and hospital admission rates have declined substantially since the introduction of three or four drug antiretroviral therapy in 1997. As infected children in the United Kingdom and Ireland are living longer, there is an increasing need to address their medical, social, and psychological needs as they enter adolescence and adult life.
BMJ (Clinical research ed.). 12/2003; 327(7422):1019.
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ABSTRACT: The aim of prenatal serological screening for toxoplasmosis is to identify and treat maternal infection as soon as possible in order to prevent transmission of the parasite to the fetus. However, despite widespread provision of prenatal toxoplasma screening across Europe, the effectiveness of prenatal treatment is uncertain. The study aimed to determine the effect of the timing and type of prenatal treatment on mother to child transmission of Toxoplasma gondii.
A cohort of 554 infected pregnant women were identified in Lyon, France between 1987 and 1995 and their children were followed to determine congenital infection status. We determined the effect of prenatal treatment on transmission by examining the effect of the delay between maternal seroconversion and start of treatment. We also compared the effect of the type of treatment and no treatment on the risk of mother to child transmission. Analyses were adjusted for gestation at maternal seroconversion.
Compared to treatment within 4 weeks from seroconversion, the adjusted odds ratios (OR) for mother to child transmission after a treatment delay of 4-7 weeks was 1.29 (95% CI : 0.61, 2.73) and after more than 8 weeks, 1.44 (95% CI : 0.60, 3.31). The adjusted OR associated with spiramycin alone compared with pyrimethamine-sulfadiazine treatment was 0.91 (95% CI : 0.45, 1.84) and the OR for no treatment compared with pyrimethamine-sulfadiazine treatment was 1.06 (95% CI : 0.37, 3.03).
The authors hypothesize that the absence of an effect of prenatal treatment is due to transmission before the start of treatment.
International Journal of Epidemiology 01/2002; 30(6):1303-8. · 6.41 Impact Factor
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ABSTRACT: Hydrocephalus, intracranial calcification and retinochoroiditis are the most common manifestations of tissue damage due to congenital toxoplasmosis, but the effect of prenatal treatment on these outcomes is unclear. We aimed to determine the effect of prenatal treatment for toxoplasmosis on the risk of intracranial and ocular lesions in congenitally infected children at 3 years of age.
A cohort of mothers identified during pregnancy with toxoplasma infection and their 181 liveborn children with confirmed congenital toxoplasmosis was retrospectively analysed to determine the presence of intracranial and ocular lesions. As few women are not treated, we compared the effects of the treatment potency (pyrimethamine-sulfadiazine versus spiramycin or no treatment), and the timing of treatment, on the risks of intracranial lesions, time to detection of ocular lesions, and detection of any lesions (intracranial or ocular) by 3 years of age. Analyses took account of the gestation at maternal seroconversion.
There was no evidence for an effect of pyrimethamine-sulfadiazine on intracranial, ocular or any lesions by 3 years: odds ratio (OR) for any lesions 0.89 (95% CI : 0.41, 1.88). There was no evidence of an effect of delayed treatment on ocular lesions (hazard ratio = 0.69, 95% CI : 0.28, 1.68) or any lesions by 3 years of age (OR = 0.44, 95% CI : 0.16, 1.19).
Our study failed to detect a beneficial effect of early or more potent anti toxoplasma treatment on the risks of intracranial or ocular lesions in children with congenital toxoplasmosis. However, larger, prospective studies, which determine the effect of prenatal treatment on long-term developmental outcomes are required to justify changes in clinical practice.
International Journal of Epidemiology 01/2002; 30(6):1309-13. · 6.41 Impact Factor
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ABSTRACT: The diagnosis of hepatitis C virus (HCV) infection in children born to HCV-infected women is based on serologic assays and HCV RNA measurement by PCR. Interpretation of the results of these tests is hampered by uncertainty about the age distribution of loss of maternal antibody and the sensitivity and specificity of PCR at different ages. On the basis of findings from a recent vertical transmission study, we estimated the posttest probability of a child's being infected or uninfected under several test result scenarios. These estimates may assist clinicians in assessing the likelihood of infection in an individual child and in using the currently available assays cost effectively.
The Pediatric Infectious Disease Journal 08/2001; 20(7):715-6. · 3.58 Impact Factor
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AIDS 08/2001; 15(10):1327-8. · 6.24 Impact Factor
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ABSTRACT: Little information is available about the timing of mother-to-child transmission of hepatitis C virus (HCV), and no interventions to decrease transmission rates have been identified. We examined the effect of risk factors, including mode of delivery, on the vertical transmission rate.
Data from HCV-infected women and their infants from three hospitals in Ireland and from a British Paediatric Surveillance Unit study of infants born to HCV-infected mothers were used to estimate the vertical transmission rate and risk factors for transmission. We used a probabilistic model using methods that simultaneously estimated the time to HCV-antibody loss in uninfected infants and the diagnostic accuracy of PCR tests for HCV RNA.
441 mother-child pairs from the UK (227) and Ireland (214) were included. 50% of uninfected children became HCV-antibody negative by 8 months and 95% by 13 months. The estimated specificity of PCR for HCV RNA was 97% (95% CI 96-99) and was unrelated to age; sensitivity was only 22% (7-46) in the first month but rose sharply to 97% (85-100) thereafter. The vertical transmission rate was 6.7% (4.1-10.2) overall, and 3.8 times higher in HIV coinfected (n=22) than in HIV-negative women after adjustment for other factors (p=0.06). No effect of breastfeeding on transmission was observed, although only 59 women breastfed. However, delivery by elective caesarean section before membrane rupture was associated with a lower transmission risk than vaginal or emergency caesarean-section delivery (odds ratio 0 [0-0.87], p=0.04, after adjustment for other factors).
The low sensitivity of HCV RNA soon after birth and the finding of a lower transmission rate after delivery by elective caesarean section suggest that HCV transmission occurs predominantly around the time of delivery. If the findings on elective caesarean section are confirmed in other studies, the case for antenatal HCV testing should be reconsidered.
The Lancet 10/2000; 356(9233):904-7. · 38.28 Impact Factor
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D T Dunn,
R J Simonds,
M Bulterys,
L A Kalish,
J Moye,
A de Maria,
C Kind,
C Rudin,
E Denamur,
A Krivine,
C Loveday,
M L Newell
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ABSTRACT: To determine whether mode of delivery or the use of maternal or neonatal antiretroviral prophylaxis influence the age when HIV-1 can first be detected in infected infants, particularly the probability of detection at birth.
In a collaboration between four multicentre studies, data on 422 HIV-1 infected infants who were assessed by HIV-1 DNA PCR or cell culture before 14 days of age were analysed. Weibull mixture models were used to estimate the cumulative proportion of infants with detectable levels of HIV-1 according to use of maternal/neonatal antiretroviral therapy (mainly zidovudine monotherapy) and mode of delivery.
HIV-1 was detected in 162 infants (38%) when they were first tested, at a median age of 2 days. At birth, it was estimated that 36% [95% confidence interval (CI), 31-41%] of infants have levels of virus that can be detected by DNA PCR or cell culture. This percentage was not associated with either mode of delivery (35% for vaginal delivery versus 40% for cesarean section delivery; P = 0.4) or the use of maternal or neonatal antiretroviral prophylaxis. Among infants with undetectable levels of HIV-1 at birth, the median time to viral detectability was estimated to be 14.8 days (95% CI, 12.9-16.8 days). This time was increased by 15% (95% CI, -11 to 48%; P = 0.3) among infants who were exposed to antiretroviral therapy postnatally compared with infants who were not exposed. No effect was observed for mode of delivery.
The outcome of an early virological test for HIV-1 is thought to be related directly to the timing of transmission and cesarean section delivery primarily reduces the risk of intrapartum transmission. The absence of an association between mode of delivery and viral detectability at birth was therefore unexpected. There was no evidence that foetal or neonatal exposure to prophylactic zidovudine delays substantially the diagnosis of infection, although this cannot be inferred for combination antiretroviral therapy.
AIDS 08/2000; 14(10):1421-8. · 6.24 Impact Factor
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ABSTRACT: To determine the odds ratio and population attributable fraction associated with food and environmental risk factors for acute toxoplasmosis in pregnancy.
Case-control study.
Six large European cities.
Pregnant women with acute infection (cases) detected by seroconversion or positive for anti-Toxoplasma gondii IgM were compared with pregnant women seronegative for toxoplasma (controls).
Odds ratios for acute infection adjusted for confounding variables; the population attributable fraction for risk factors.
Risk factors most strongly predictive of acute infection in pregnant women were eating undercooked lamb, beef, or game, contact with soil, and travel outside Europe and the United States and Canada. Contact with cats was not a risk factor. Between 30% and 63% of infections in different centres were attributed to consumption of undercooked or cured meat products and 6% to 17% to soil contact.
Inadequately cooked or cured meat is the main risk factor for infection with toxoplasma in all centres. Preventive strategies should aim to reduce prevalence of infection in meat, improve labelling of meat according to farming and processing methods, and improve the quality and consistency of health information given to pregnant women.
BMJ 08/2000; 321(7254):142-7. · 14.09 Impact Factor
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ABSTRACT: Objective: To determine the odds ratio and population attributable fraction associated with food and environmental risk factors for acute toxoplasmosis in pregnancy.Design: Case-control study.Setting: Six large European cities.Participants: Pregnant women with acute infection (cases) detected by seroconversion or positive for anti-Toxoplasma gondii IgM were compared with pregnant women seronegative for toxoplasma (controls).Main outcome measures: Odds ratios for acute infection adjusted for confounding variables; the population attributable fraction for risk factors.Results: Risk factors most strongly predictive of acute infection in pregnant women were eating undercooked lamb, beef, or game, contact with soil, and travel outside Europe and the United States and Canada. Contact with cats was not a risk factor. Between 30% and 63% of infections in different centres were attributed to consumption of undercooked or cured meat products and 6% to 17% to soil contact.Conclusions: Inadequately cooked or cured meat is the main risk factor for infection with toxoplasma in all centres. Preventive strategies should aim to reduce prevalence of infection in meat, improve labelling of meat according to farming and processing methods, and improve the quality and consistency of health information given to pregnant women.
BMJ. 07/2000; 321(7254):142 - 147.
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ABSTRACT: Ocular disease is the commonest disabling consequence of toxoplasma infection. Incidence and lifetime risk of ocular symptoms were determined by ascertaining affected patients in a population-based, active reporting study involving ophthalmologists serving a population of 7.4 million. Eighty-seven symptomatic episodes were attributed to toxoplasma infection. Bilateral visual acuity of 6/12 or less was found in seven episodes (8%) and was likely to have been transient in most cases. Black people born in West Africa had a 100-fold higher incidence of symptoms than white people born in Britain. Only two patients reported symptoms before 10 years of age. The estimated lifetime risk of symptoms in British born individuals (52% of all episodes) was 18/100000 (95% confidence interval: 10.8-25.2). The low risk and mild symptoms in an unscreened British population indicate limited potential benefits of prenatal or postnatal screening. The late age at presentation suggests a mixed aetiology of postnatally acquired and congenital infection for which primary prevention may be appropriate, particularly among West Africans.
Epidemiology and Infection 11/1999; 123(2):283-9. · 2.84 Impact Factor
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D T Dunn
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ABSTRACT: Estimation of the risk of vertical transmission of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) has been complicated by the lack of a reliable diagnostic test for paediatric HIV infection.
A literature search was conducted to identify all statistical methods that have been used to estimate HIV vertical transmission risk. Although the focus of this article is the analysis of birth cohort studies, ad hoc studies are also reviewed.
The standard method for estimating HIV vertical transmission risk is biased and inefficient. Various alternative analytical approaches have been proposed but all involve simplifying assumptions and some are difficult to implement. However, early diagnosis/exclusion of infection is now possible because of improvements in polymerase chain reaction technology and complex estimation methods should no longer be required. The best way to analyse studies conducted in breastfeeding populations is still unclear and deserves attention in view of the many intervention studies being planned or conducted in developing countries.
International Journal of Epidemiology 01/1999; 27(6):1064-7. · 6.41 Impact Factor
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ABSTRACT: To examine the implications of variation in maternal infectivity on the timing of mother-to-child HIV transmission through breastfeeding.
A mathematical model of mother-to-child HIV transmission was developed that incorporates two main features: (i) the fetus/child potentially experiences a series of exposures (in utero, intrapartum, and via breastmilk) to HIV; and (ii) variation in maternal infectivity. The model was estimated from different sources of epidemiological data: a retrospective cohort study of children born to HIV-1-infected women in Sao Paulo State, Brazil, the International Registry of HIV-Exposed Twins, and the AIDS Clinical Trials Group 076 trial, which assessed the effectiveness of zidovudine in preventing mother-to-child HIV transmission.
Variation in maternal infectivity results in higher average risk of breastfeeding-related transmission in the early stages of breastfeeding than in the late stages, even in the absence of a direct relationship between transmission risk and the age of the child. However, the available data were unable to resolve the quantitative importance of this mechanism.
Our model has helped identify a previously unrecognized determinant of the timing of breastfeeding-related HIV transmission, which may have adverse implications for the effectiveness of certain interventions to reduce mother-to-child HIV transmission such as maternal antiretroviral therapy in breastfeeding populations and the early cessation of breastfeeding.
AIDS 12/1998; 12(16):2211-6. · 6.24 Impact Factor
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ABSTRACT: Although vertical transmission of HIV-1 can occur through breast-feeding, little is known about the effect of colostrum, duration of breast-feeding, mixing feeding, and nipple pathology. We used retrospective cohort data to examine the association between breast-feeding-related factors and transmission of HIV-1 from mother to child in São Paulo State, Brazil. Information on maternal and postnatal factors was collected by medical record review and interview. Infection status was determined for 434 children by anti-HIV-1 tests performed beyond 18 months of age or diagnosis of AIDS at any age. Among 168 breast-fed children, the risk of transmission of HIV-1 was 21%, compared with 13% (p = .01) among 264 children artificially fed. Breast-feeding was independently and significantly associated with mother-to-child transmission of HIV-1 after controlling for stage of maternal HIV-1 disease (odds ratio [OR] = 2.2; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.3-3.8). A trend was shown toward an increased risk of transmission with longer duration of breast-feeding, a history of bleeding nipples, and introduction of other liquid food before weaning, but these associations were not statistically significant. History of colostrum intake or cracked nipples without bleeding were not associated with transmission. Most of the women who breast-fed were unaware of their HIV-1 infection status at the time of delivery. Avoidance of mixed feeding and withholding of breast-feeding in the presence of bleeding nipples should be considered in further research as strategies to reduce postnatal transmission of HIV-1 in settings in which safe and sustainable alternatives for breast-feeding are not yet available.
Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndromes and Human Retrovirology 11/1998; 19(2):189-94.
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ABSTRACT: Information on vaccinations and vaccine-preventable infections collected in a prospective study of children born to human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected mothers was analysed for reports of adverse reactions and to estimate the clinical efficacy of vaccines. No vaccinated, HIV-infected child developed measles (56 child-years' follow-up), mumps (33), rubella (33) or pertussis (239), and only one adverse reaction - to Bacillus Calmette-Guerin (BCG) - was reported. These findings provide limited evidence of the safety and efficacy of routine vaccination of HIV-infected children.
Acta Paediatrica 05/1998; 87(4):458-9. · 2.07 Impact Factor
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ABSTRACT: To evaluate the effect of maternal, obstetric, neonatal and post-natal factors on the risk of vertical transmission of HIV-1.
Multicentre retrospective cohort study.
Obstetric and paediatric clinics in four cities in Sao Paulo State, Brazil.
Child's HIV-1 infection status.
Data were collected by standardized record abstraction and interview on 553 children born to women identified as HIV-1-infected before or at delivery. Paediatric infection was determined by immunoglobulin G anti-HIV-1 tests at age 18 months or by AIDS diagnosis at any age. Multivariate logistic regression was used to assess the effect of potential risk factors on vertical transmission of HIV-1.
HIV-1 infection status was determined for 434 children (follow-up rate of 78%); 69 were classified as HIV-1-infected [transmission risk, 16%; 95% confidence interval (CI), 13-20%]. In multivariate analysis, advanced maternal HIV-1 disease [odds ratio (OR), 4.5; 95% CI, 2.1-9.5], ever breastfed (OR, 2.2; 95% CI, 1.2-4.2), child's negative Rhesus blood group (OR, 2.5; 95% CI, 1.2-5.5), third trimester amniocentesis (OR, 4.1; 95% CI, 1.2-13.5) and black racial group (OR, 0.3; 95% CI, 0.1-0.9) were independently and significantly associated with mother-to-child transmission of HIV-1. Transmission was increased marginally with prematurity, more than 10 lifetime sexual partners and prolonged duration of membrane rupture. No association was found between child's HIV-1 infection and mode of delivery or serological evidence of syphilis during pregnancy.
These findings support the importance of severity of maternal HIV-1 disease in the risk of vertical transmission of HIV-1, indicate measures to reduce transmission by avoiding amniocentesis and breastfeeding and suggest that race and Rhesus blood type may be markers for genetic susceptibility to infection.
AIDS 03/1998; 12(5):513-20. · 6.24 Impact Factor
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S O'Shea,
M L Newell, D T Dunn,
M C Garcia-Rodriguez,
I Bates,
J Mullen,
T Rostron,
K Corbett,
S Aiyer,
K Butler,
R Smith,
J E Banatvala
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ABSTRACT: HIV load and CD4 cell numbers were measured among 95 HIV infected women during pregnancy in order to determine their value as prognostic markers for transmission of virus from mother to infant. Among the 94 live births, 13 children were infected with HIV, 69 were uninfected and 12 were of unknown infection status. HIV RNA levels, as measured by nucleic acid sequence based amplification, were significantly higher (P < 0.001) in women who transmitted virus than among those who did not transmit and maternal viral load was a stronger predictor of transmission than CD4 cell number. The predicted rate of transmission relative to maternal HIV RNA was 2% at 1,000 copies, 11% at 10,000 copies and 40% at 100,000 copies/ml. Little variation in viral load occurred during pregnancy and there was an association between viral load and prematurity, the mean gestation at delivery decreasing by 1.3 weeks for every 10-fold increase in maternal HIV RNA (P = 0.007). This study demonstrates that a high level of maternal HIV RNA is a risk factor for transmission of virus to the infant and maternal viral load is of more value as a prognostic marker for transmission risk than CD4 cell number. High viral load is also associated with premature delivery. Maternal viral load is therefore a useful marker on which to base management decisions during pregnancy.
Journal of Medical Virology 02/1998; 54(2):113-7. · 2.82 Impact Factor
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ABSTRACT: Based on 392 infected children enrolled in two European prospective studies of infants born to HIV-infected women, with similar standard protocols, HIV disease progression in the first 6 years of life is described, using the 1994 CDC paediatric HIV classification. Most children had developed minor (A) or moderately severe (B) illness in the first 4 years of life, although usually it was transient in nature. Progression to U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) group C disease or HIV-related death is an estimated 20% (95% confidence interval 16-24%) during the first year of life, and 4.7% (3.3-6.5%) per year thereafter, giving a cumulative incidence of 36% (30-43%) by 6 years. The mortality rate at 6 years is 26% (20-32%). Two thirds of the children alive at 6 years had only minor symptoms, and one third had a CD4+ cell distribution of > 25% despite previous clinical manifestations and a transient period of moderate immune deficiency. Differences in zidovudine monotherapy between the two cohorts were not associated with the mortality rate. However, the risk of severe bacterial infections was lower in the French cohort, in which the use of antibacterial prophylaxis was more common. The early, severe form of HIV disease affects approximately 20% of infants, and after 6 years 75% of infected children are still alive. This has important implications for health-care planning.
Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndromes and Human Retrovirology 05/1997; 14(5):442-50.
