M Arfan Ikram

Erasmus MC, Rotterdam, South Holland, Netherlands

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Publications (127)1165.31 Total impact

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    ABSTRACT: When studying the causal effect of drug use in observational data, marginal structural modeling (MSM) can be used to adjust for time-dependent confounders that are affected by previous treatment. The objective of this study was to compare traditional Cox proportional hazard models (with and without time-dependent covariates) with MSM to study causal effects of time-dependent drug use. The example of primary prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) with statins was examined using up to 17.7 years of follow-up from 4,654 participants of the observational prospective population-based Rotterdam Study. In the MSM model, the weight was based on measurements of established cardiovascular risk factors and co-morbidity. In general, we could not demonstrate important differences in results from the Cox models and MSM. Results from analysis on duration of statin use suggested that substantial residual confounding by indication was not accounted for during the period shortly after statin initiation. In conclusion, although on theoretical grounds MSM is an elegant technique, lack of data on the precise time-dependent confounders, such as indication of treatment or other considerations of the prescribing physician jeopardizes the calculation of valid weights. Confounding remains a hurdle in observational effectiveness research on preventive drugs with a multitude of prescription determinants.
    European Journal of Epidemiology 09/2014; · 5.12 Impact Factor
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    ABSTRACT: While both cardiac dysfunction and progressive loss of cognitive functioning are prominent features of an aging population, surprisingly few studies have addressed the link between heart and brain function. This is probably due to the monodisciplinary approach to these problems by cardiologists, neurologists, and geriatricians. Recent data indicate that autoregulation of cerebral flow cannot always protect the brain from hypoperfusion when cardiac output is reduced or atherosclerosis is prominent. This suggests a close link between cardiac function and large vessel atherosclerosis on the one hand and brain perfusion and cognitive functioning on the other. In a national research program, we will test the hypothesis that impaired hemodynamic status of both heart and brain is an important and potentially reversible cause of vascular cognitive impairment (VCI) offering promising opportunities for treatment. Using a multidisciplinary approach, we will address the following questions: 1) To what extent do hemodynamic changes contribute to VCI? 2) What are the mechanisms involved? 3) Does improvement of the hemodynamic status lead to improvement of cognitive dysfunction? To this end we will perform clinical studies in elderly patients with clinically manifest VCI, carotid occlusive disease, or heart failure and evaluate their cardiac and large vascular function, atherosclerotic load, and cerebral perfusion with a comprehensive magnetic resonance imaging protocol and thoroughly test their cognitive function. We will also analyze epidemiological data from the Rotterdam Study.
    Journal of Alzheimer's disease: JAD 09/2014; · 4.17 Impact Factor
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    ABSTRACT: Subclinical thyroid dysfunction has been associated with coronary heart disease, but the risk of stroke is unclear. Our aim is to combine the evidence on the association between subclinical thyroid dysfunction and the risk of stroke in prospective cohort studies. We searched Medline (OvidSP), Embase, Web-of-Science, Pubmed Publisher, Cochrane and Google Scholar from inception to November 2013 using a cohort filter, but without language restriction or other limitations. Reference lists of articles were searched. Two independent reviewers screened articles according to pre-specified criteria and selected prospective cohort studies with baseline thyroid function measurements and assessment of stroke outcomes. Data were derived using a standardized data extraction form. Quality was assessed according to previously defined quality indicators by two independent reviewers. We pooled the outcomes using a random-effects model. Of 2,274 articles screened, six cohort studies, including 11,309 participants with 665 stroke events, met the criteria. Four of six studies provided information on subclinical hyperthyroidism including a total of 6,029 participants and five on subclinical hypothyroidism (n = 10,118). The pooled hazard ratio (HR) was 1.08 (95 % CI 0.87-1.34) for subclinical hypothyroidism (I (2) of 0 %) and 1.17 (95 % CI 0.54-2.56) for subclinical hyperthyroidism (I (2) of 67 %) compared to euthyroidism. Subgroup analyses yielded similar results. Our systematic review provides no evidence supporting an increased risk for stroke associated with subclinical thyroid dysfunction. However, the available literature is insufficient and larger datasets are needed to perform extended analyses. Also, there were insufficient events to exclude clinically significant risk from subclinical hyperthyroidism, and more data are required for subgroup analyses.
    European Journal of Epidemiology 09/2014; · 5.12 Impact Factor
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    ABSTRACT: High levels of serum uric acid are associated with hypertension in observational studies. The aim of this study was to investigate the association of uric acid gene variants with blood pressure. We studied 5791 participants aged ≥55 years from the Rotterdam Study. Thirty gene variants identified for serum uric acid level were used to compile genetic risk score (GRS). We used linear regression models to investigate the association of the uric acid GRS with systolic and diastolic blood pressure in the whole study population and separately in participants with and without comorbidities and medication use. In the age- and sex-adjusted model, each SD increase in uric acid GRS was associated with 0.75 mm Hg lower systolic blood pressure (95% confidence interval, -1.31 to -0.19) and 0.42 mm Hg lower diastolic blood pressure (95% confidence interval, -0.72 to -0.13). The association did not attenuate after further adjustment for antihypertensive medication use and conventional cardiovascular risk factors. In subgroup analysis, the association of uric acid GRS with systolic blood pressure was significantly stronger in participants (n=885) on diuretic treatment (P for interaction, 0.007). In conclusion, we found that higher uric acid GRS is associated with lower systolic and diastolic blood pressure. Diuretics treatment may modify the association of uric acid genetic risk score and systolic blood pressure. Our study suggests that genome wide association study's findings can be associated with an intermediate factor or have a pleiotropic role and, therefore, should be applied for Mendelian Randomization with caution.
    Hypertension 09/2014; · 6.87 Impact Factor
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    ABSTRACT: arterial stiffening is a marker of vascular ageing and an independent risk factor for cardiovascular disease. A potential mechanism linking cardiovascular disease to chronic kidney disease might be the change in arterial elasticity. We aim to determine the association between renal function and arterial stiffness in older subjects.
    Age and Ageing 08/2014; · 3.82 Impact Factor
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    ABSTRACT: Objectives: To perform a genome-wide association study (GWAS) using the Immunochip array in 3,420 cases of ischemic stroke and 6,821 controls, followed by a meta-analysis with data from more than 14,000 additional ischemic stroke cases. Methods: Using the Immunochip, we genotyped 3,420 ischemic stroke cases and 6,821 controls. After imputation we meta-analyzed the results with imputed GWAS data from 3,548 cases and 5,972 controls recruited from the ischemic stroke WTCCC2 study, and with summary statistics from a further 8,480 cases and 56,032 controls in the METASTROKE consortium. A final in silico "look-up" of 2 single nucleotide polymorphisms in 2,522 cases and 1,899 controls was performed. Associations were also examined in 1,088 cases with intracerebral hemorrhage and 1,102 controls.
    Neurology 08/2014; 83(8):678-685. · 8.25 Impact Factor
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    ABSTRACT: We conducted a meta-analysis of Parkinson's disease genome-wide association studies using a common set of 7,893,274 variants across 13,708 cases and 95,282 controls. Twenty-six loci were identified as having genome-wide significant association; these and 6 additional previously reported loci were then tested in an independent set of 5,353 cases and 5,551 controls. Of the 32 tested SNPs, 24 replicated, including 6 newly identified loci. Conditional analyses within loci showed that four loci, including GBA, GAK-DGKQ, SNCA and the HLA region, contain a secondary independent risk variant. In total, we identified and replicated 28 independent risk variants for Parkinson's disease across 24 loci. Although the effect of each individual locus was small, risk profile analysis showed substantial cumulative risk in a comparison of the highest and lowest quintiles of genetic risk (odds ratio (OR) = 3.31, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 2.55-4.30; P = 2 × 10(-16)). We also show six risk loci associated with proximal gene expression or DNA methylation.
    Nature genetics. 07/2014;
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    ABSTRACT: Brain changes on magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) reflect accumulating pathology and have clinically disabling consequences, such as dementia. However, little is known on the relation of these MRI-markers with daily functioning in non-demented individuals. We investigated whether structural and microstructural brain changes associate with impairment in activities of daily living in a community-dwelling population.
    The American journal of medicine. 07/2014;
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    ABSTRACT: To investigate the prevalence of frailty in a Dutch elderly population and to identify adverse health outcomes associated with the frailty phenotype independent of the comorbidities. Cross-sectional and longitudinal analyses within the Rotterdam Study (the Netherlands), a prospective population-based cohort study in persons aged ≥55 years. Frailty was defined as meeting three or more of five established criteria for frailty, evaluating nutritional status, physical activity, mobility, grip strength and exhaustion. Intermediate frailty was defined as meeting one or two frailty criteria. Comorbidities were objectively measured. Health outcomes were assessed by means of questionnaires, physical examinations and continuous follow-up through general practitioners and municipal health authorities for mortality. Of 2,833 participants (median age 74.0 years, inter quartile range 9) with sufficiently evaluated frailty criteria, 163 (5.8 %) participants were frail and 1,454 (51.3 %) intermediate frail. Frail elderly were more likely to be older and female, to have an impaired quality of life and to have fallen or to have been hospitalized. 108 (72.0 %) frail participants had ≥2 comorbidities, compared to 777 (54.4 %) intermediate frail and 522 (44.8 %) non-frail participants. Adjusted for age, sex and comorbidities, frail elderly had a significantly increased risk of dying within 3 years (HR 3.4; 95 % CI 1.9-6.4), compared to the non-frail elderly. This study in a general Dutch population of community-dwelling elderly able to perform the frailty tests, demonstrates that frailty is common and that frail elderly are at increased risk of death independent of comorbidities.
    European Journal of Epidemiology 06/2014; · 5.12 Impact Factor
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    ABSTRACT: Serotonin reuptake inhibiting antidepressants decrease platelet aggregation. This may cause an increased risk of intracerebral hemorrhage. However, the risk of subclinical microbleeds, which are highly prevalent in middle-aged and elderly people, is unknown. We studied whether serotonin reuptake inhibiting antidepressants increase the frequency of cerebral microbleeds and secondarily whether they lower the presence of ischemic vascular damage.
    05/2014;
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    ABSTRACT: Mild cognitive impairment (MCI) marks a transitional stage between healthy aging and dementia, but the understanding of MCI in the general population remains limited. We investigated determinants, MRI-correlates, and prognosis of MCI within the population-based Rotterdam Study. Firstly, we studied age, APOE-ε4 carriership, waist circumference, hypertension, diabetes mellitus, total and HDL-cholesterol levels, smoking, and stroke as potential determinants of MCI. Determinants were assessed cross-sectionally at baseline (2002-2005) and up to 7 years prior to baseline (1997-2001). Secondly, we compared volumetric, microstructural, and focal MRI-correlates in persons with and without MCI. Thirdly, we followed participants for incident dementia and mortality until 2012. Out of 4,198 participants, 417 had MCI, of whom 163 amnestic and 254 non-amnestic MCI. At baseline, older age, APOE-ε4 carriership, lower total cholesterol levels, and stroke were associated with MCI. Additionally, lower HDL-cholesterol levels and smoking were related to MCI when assessed 7 years prior to baseline. Persons with MCI, particularly those with non-amnestic MCI, had larger white matter lesion volumes, worse microstructural integrity of normal-appearing white matter, and a higher prevalence of lacunes, compared to cognitively healthy participants. MCI was associated with an increased risk of dementia (hazard ratio (HR) 3.98, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.97;5.33), Alzheimer's disease (HR 4.03, 95% CI 2.92;5.56), and mortality (HR 1.54, 95% CI 1.28;1.85). In conclusion, we found that several vascular risk factors and MRI-correlates of cerebrovascular disease were related to MCI in the general population. Participants with MCI had an increased risk of dementia, including Alzheimer's disease, and mortality.
    Journal of Alzheimer's disease: JAD 05/2014; · 4.17 Impact Factor
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    ABSTRACT: Background: Insulin-like growth factor-I (IGF-I) is a pleiotropic hormone. Several studies have related IGF-I levels to dementia, but evidence remains inconclusive. IGF-I receptor stimulating activity is a more direct measure of biologically available IGF-I than total IGF-I levels. Objective: To investigate whether IGF-I receptor stimulating activity is associated with prevalent and incident dementia. Methods: IGF-I receptor stimulating activity was measured using an IGF-I kinase receptor activation assay in 1,014 persons from the Rotterdam Study. Dementia was assessed at baseline (1997-1999) and continuously during follow-up until September 2011. Associations of IGF-I receptor stimulating activity with prevalent dementia were investigated using logistic regression and with incident dementia using Cox proportional hazards models. All models were adjusted for age and gender, and additionally for hypertension, glucose, waist circumference, APOE-ε4 carrier status, total cholesterol, and HDL-cholesterol. Results: Thirty participants had prevalent dementia and during 8,589 person-years of follow-up, 135 persons developed incident dementia. A higher level of IGF-I receptor stimulating activity was associated with a higher prevalence of dementia (fully adjusted odds ratio 1.47; 95%CI 1.10-1.97) and with higher risk of incident dementia (fully adjusted hazard ratio 1.15; 95%CI 1.00-1.33). Similar associations were found for Alzheimer's disease and in persons without diabetes mellitus. Conclusions: Higher levels of IGF-I receptor stimulating activity are associated with a higher prevalence and with a higher incidence of dementia. These results suggest that IGF-I increases in response to neuropathological changes in dementia and could reflect a state of IGF-I resistance in dementia.
    Journal of Alzheimer's disease: JAD 05/2014; · 4.17 Impact Factor
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    ABSTRACT: Metabolic syndrome (MetS) has become a health and financial burden worldwide. The MetS definition captures clustering of risk factors that predict higher risk for diabetes mellitus and cardiovascular disease. Our study hypothesis is that additional to genes influencing individual MetS risk factors, genetic variants exist that influence MetS and inflammatory markers forming a predisposing MetS genetic network. To test this hypothesis a staged approach was undertaken. (a) We analyzed 17 metabolic and inflammatory traits in more than 85,500 participants from 14 large epidemiological studies within the Cross Consortia Pleiotropy Group. Individuals classified with MetS (NCEP definition), versus those without, showed on average significantly different levels for most inflammatory markers studied. (b) Paired average correlations between 8 metabolic traits and 9 inflammatory markers from the same studies as above, estimated with two methods, and factor analyses on large simulated data, helped in identifying 8 combinations of traits for follow-up in meta-analyses, out of 130,305 possible combinations between metabolic traits and inflammatory markers studied. (c) We performed correlated meta-analyses for 8 metabolic traits and 6 inflammatory markers by using existing GWAS published genetic summary results, with about 2.5 million SNPs from twelve predominantly largest GWAS consortia. These analyses yielded 130 unique SNPs/genes with pleiotropic associations (a SNP/gene associating at least one metabolic trait and one inflammatory marker). Of them twenty-five variants (seven loci newly reported) are proposed as MetS candidates. They map to genes MACF1, KIAA0754, GCKR, GRB14, COBLL1, LOC646736-IRS1, SLC39A8, NELFE, SKIV2L, STK19, TFAP2B, BAZ1B, BCL7B, TBL2, MLXIPL, LPL, TRIB1, ATXN2, HECTD4, PTPN11, ZNF664, PDXDC1, FTO, MC4R and TOMM40. Based on large data evidence, we conclude that inflammation is a feature of MetS and several gene variants show pleiotropic genetic associations across phenotypes and might explain a part of MetS correlated genetic architecture. These findings warrant further functional investigation.
    Molecular Genetics and Metabolism 05/2014; · 2.83 Impact Factor
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    ABSTRACT: To develop and validate 10-year cumulative incidence functions of intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) and ischemic stroke (IS). We used data on 27,493 participants from 3 population-based cohort studies: the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities Study, median age 54 years, 45% male, median follow-up 20.7 years; the Rotterdam Study, median age 68 years, 38% male, median follow-up 14.3 years; and the Cardiovascular Health Study, median age 71 years, 41% male, median follow-up 12.8 years. Among these participants, 325 ICH events, 2,559 IS events, and 9,909 nonstroke deaths occurred. We developed 10-year cumulative incidence functions for ICH and IS using stratified Cox regression and competing risks analysis. Basic models including only established nonlaboratory risk factors were extended with diastolic blood pressure, total cholesterol/high-density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio, body mass index, waist-to-hip ratio, and glomerular filtration rate. The cumulative incidence functions' performances were cross-validated in each cohort separately by Harrell C-statistic and calibration plots. High total cholesterol/high-density lipoprotein cholesterol ratio decreased the ICH rates but increased IS rates (p for difference across stroke types <0.001). For both the ICH and IS models, C statistics increased more by model extension in the Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities and Cardiovascular Health Study cohorts. Improvements in C statistics were reproduced by cross-validation. Models were well calibrated in all cohorts. Correlations between 10-year ICH and IS risks were moderate in each cohort. We developed and cross-validated cumulative incidence functions for separate prediction of 10-year ICH and IS risk. These functions can be useful to further specify an individual's stroke risk.
    Neurology 04/2014; · 8.25 Impact Factor
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    ABSTRACT: Stroke prevention requires effective treatment of its causes. Many etiological factors for stroke have been identified, but the potential gain of effective intervention on these factors in terms of numbers of actually prevented strokes remains unclear because of the lack of data from cohort studies. We assessed the impact of currently known potentially modifiable etiological factors on the occurrence of stroke. This population-based cohort study was based on 6,844 participants of the Rotterdam Study who were aged ≥55 y and free from stroke at baseline (1990-1993). We computed population attributable risks (PARs) for individual risk factors and for risk factors in combination to estimate the proportion of strokes that could theoretically be prevented by the elimination of etiological factors from the population. The mean age at baseline was 69.4 y (standard deviation 6.3 y). During follow-up (mean follow-up 12.9 y, standard deviation 6.3 y), 1,020 strokes occurred. The age- and sex-adjusted combined PAR of prehypertension/hypertension, smoking, diabetes mellitus, atrial fibrillation, coronary disease, and overweight/obesity was 0.51 (95% CI 0.41-0.62) for any stroke; hypertension and smoking were the most important etiological factors. C-reactive protein, fruit and vegetable consumption, and carotid intima-media thickness in combination raised the total PAR by 0.06. The PAR was 0.55 (95% CI 0.41-0.68) for ischemic stroke and 0.70 (95% CI 0.45-0.87) for hemorrhagic stroke. The main limitations of our study are that our study population comprises almost exclusively Caucasians who live in a middle and high income area, and that risk factor awareness is higher in a study cohort than in the general population. About half of all strokes are attributable to established causal and modifiable factors. This finding encourages not only intervention on established etiological factors, but also further study of less well established factors. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.
    PLoS Medicine 04/2014; 11(4):e1001634. · 15.25 Impact Factor
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    ABSTRACT: IMPORTANCE The 2013 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association (ACC/AHA) guidelines introduced a prediction model and lowered the threshold for treatment with statins to a 7.5% 10-year hard atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk. Implications of the new guideline's threshold and model have not been addressed in non-US populations or compared with previous guidelines. OBJECTIVE To determine population-wide implications of the ACC/AHA, the Adult Treatment Panel III (ATP-III), and the European Society of Cardiology (ESC) guidelines using a cohort of Dutch individuals aged 55 years or older. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS We included 4854 Rotterdam Study participants recruited in 1997-2001. We calculated 10-year risks for "hard" ASCVD events (including fatal and nonfatal coronary heart disease [CHD] and stroke) (ACC/AHA), hard CHD events (fatal and nonfatal myocardial infarction, CHD mortality) (ATP-III), and atherosclerotic CVD mortality (ESC). MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Events were assessed until January 1, 2012. Per guideline, we calculated proportions of individuals for whom statins would be recommended and determined calibration and discrimination of risk models. RESULTS The mean age was 65.5 (SD, 5.2) years. Statins would be recommended for 96.4% (95% CI, 95.4%-97.1%; n = 1825) of men and 65.8% (95% CI, 63.8%-67.7%; n = 1523) of women by the ACC/AHA, 52.0% (95% CI, 49.8%-54.3%; n = 985) of men and 35.5% (95% CI, 33.5%-37.5%; n = 821) of women by the ATP-III, and 66.1% (95% CI, 64.0%-68.3%; n = 1253) of men and 39.1% (95% CI, 37.1%-41.2%; n = 906) of women by ESC guidelines. With the ACC/AHA model, average predicted risk vs observed cumulative incidence of hard ASCVD events was 21.5% (95% CI, 20.9%-22.1%) vs 12.7% (95% CI, 11.1%-14.5%) for men (192 events) and 11.6% (95% CI, 11.2%-12.0%) vs 7.9% (95% CI, 6.7%-9.2%) for women (151 events). Similar overestimation occurred with the ATP-III model (98 events in men and 62 events in women) and ESC model (50 events in men and 37 events in women). The C statistic was 0.67 (95% CI, 0.63-0.71) in men and 0.68 (95% CI, 0.64-0.73) in women for hard ASCVD (ACC/AHA), 0.67 (95% CI, 0.62-0.72) in men and 0.69 (95% CI, 0.63-0.75) in women for hard CHD (ATP-III), and 0.76 (95% CI, 0.70-0.82) in men and 0.77 (95% CI, 0.71-0.83) in women for CVD mortality (ESC). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE In this European population aged 55 years or older, proportions of individuals eligible for statins differed substantially among the guidelines. The ACC/AHA guideline would recommend statins for nearly all men and two-thirds of women, proportions exceeding those with the ATP-III or ESC guidelines. All 3 risk models provided poor calibration and moderate to good discrimination. Improving risk predictions and setting appropriate population-wide thresholds are necessary to facilitate better clinical decision making.
    JAMA The Journal of the American Medical Association 03/2014; · 29.98 Impact Factor
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    ABSTRACT: Carotid intima-media thickness (CIMT) is a marker of cardiovascular risk. It is unclear whether measurement of mean common CIMT improves 10-year risk prediction of first-time myocardial infarction or stroke in individuals with elevated blood pressure. We performed an analysis among individuals with elevated blood pressure (ie, a systolic blood pressure ≥140 mm Hg and a diastolic blood pressure ≥ 90 mm Hg) in USE-IMT, a large ongoing individual participant data meta-analysis. We refitted the risk factors of the Framingham Risk Score on asymptomatic individuals (baseline model) and expanded this model with mean common CIMT (CIMT model) measurements. From both models, 10-year risks to develop a myocardial infarction or stroke were estimated. In individuals with elevated blood pressure, we compared discrimination and calibration of the 2 models and calculated the net reclassification improvement (NRI). We included 17 254 individuals with elevated blood pressure from 16 studies. During a median follow-up of 9.9 years, 2014 first-time myocardial infarctions or strokes occurred. The C-statistics of the baseline and CIMT models were similar (0.73). NRI with the addition of mean common CIMT was small and not significant (1.4%; 95% confidence intervals, -1.1 to 3.7). In those at intermediate risk (n=5008, 10-year absolute risk of 10% to 20%), the NRI was 5.6% (95% confidence intervals, 1.6-10.4). There is no added value of measurement of mean common CIMT in individuals with elevated blood pressure for improving cardiovascular risk prediction. For those at intermediate risk, the addition of mean common CIMT to an existing cardiovascular risk score is small but statistically significant.
    Hypertension 03/2014; · 6.87 Impact Factor
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    ABSTRACT: IMPORTANCE Intracranial atherosclerosis represents a relatively unexplored, but potentially important, cause of stroke in a white population. OBJECTIVE To investigate the relationship between intracranial carotid artery calcification (ICAC) as a marker of intracranial atherosclerosis and the risk of stroke in whites. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS A population-based cohort study in the general community with 6 years of follow-up was conducted (the Rotterdam Study). Between 2003 and 2006, a random sample of 2323 stroke-free persons (mean age, 69.5 years) underwent computed tomography scanning to quantify ICAC volume. All participants were continuously monitored for the occurrence of stroke until January 1, 2012. EXPOSURE Atherosclerotic calcification in the intracranial internal carotid arteries. MAIN OUTCOME AND MEASURE Incident stroke. RESULTS During 14 055 person-years of follow-up, 91 participants had a stroke, of which 74 were ischemic. Larger ICAC volume was related to a higher risk of stroke, independent of cardiovascular risk factors, ultrasound carotid plaque score, and calcification in other vessels (fully adjusted hazard ratio per an increase of 1 SD in ICAC volume, 1.43 [95% CI, 1.04-1.96]). Intracranial carotid artery calcification contributed to 75% of all strokes; for aortic arch and extracranial carotid artery calcification this incidence was only 45% and 25%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE Our findings establish intracranial atherosclerosis as a major risk factor for stroke in the general white population and suggest that its contribution to the proportion of all strokes may be greater than that of large-artery atherosclerosis in more proximally located vessel beds.
    JAMA neurology. 02/2014;
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    ABSTRACT: Genome-wide association studies have revealed multiple common variants associated with known risk factors for ischemic stroke (IS). However, their aggregate effect on risk is uncertain. We aimed to generate a multilocus genetic risk score (GRS) for IS based on genome-wide association studies data from clinical-based samples and to establish its external validity in prospective population-based cohorts. Three thousand five hundred forty-eight clinic-based IS cases and 6399 controls from the Wellcome Trust Case Control Consortium 2 were used for derivation of the GRS. Subjects from the METASTROKE consortium served as a replication sample. The validation sample consisted of 22 751 participants from the Cohorts for Heart and Aging Research in Genomic Epidemiology consortium. We selected variants that had reached genome-wide significance in previous association studies on established risk factors for IS. A combined GRS for atrial fibrillation, coronary artery disease, hypertension, and systolic blood pressure significantly associated with IS both in the case-control samples and in the prospective population-based studies. Subjects in the top quintile of the combined GRS had >2-fold increased risk of IS compared with subjects in the lowest quintile. Addition of the combined GRS to a simple model based on sex significantly improved the prediction of IS in the combined clinic-based samples but not in the population-based studies, and there was no significant improvement in net reclassification. A multilocus GRS based on common variants for established cardiovascular risk factors was significantly associated with IS both in clinic-based samples and in the general population. However, the improvement in clinical risk prediction was found to be small.
    Stroke 02/2014; 45(2):394-402. · 6.16 Impact Factor
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    ABSTRACT: Beyond the Framingham Stroke Risk Score, prediction of future stroke may improve with a genetic risk score (GRS) based on single-nucleotide polymorphisms associated with stroke and its risk factors. The study includes 4 population-based cohorts with 2047 first incident strokes from 22 720 initially stroke-free European origin participants aged ≥55 years, who were followed for up to 20 years. GRSs were constructed with 324 single-nucleotide polymorphisms implicated in stroke and 9 risk factors. The association of the GRS to first incident stroke was tested using Cox regression; the GRS predictive properties were assessed with area under the curve statistics comparing the GRS with age and sex, Framingham Stroke Risk Score models, and reclassification statistics. These analyses were performed per cohort and in a meta-analysis of pooled data. Replication was sought in a case-control study of ischemic stroke. In the meta-analysis, adding the GRS to the Framingham Stroke Risk Score, age and sex model resulted in a significant improvement in discrimination (all stroke: Δjoint area under the curve=0.016, P=2.3×10(-6); ischemic stroke: Δjoint area under the curve=0.021, P=3.7×10(-7)), although the overall area under the curve remained low. In all the studies, there was a highly significantly improved net reclassification index (P<10(-4)). The single-nucleotide polymorphisms associated with stroke and its risk factors result only in a small improvement in prediction of future stroke compared with the classical epidemiological risk factors for stroke.
    Stroke 01/2014; · 6.16 Impact Factor

Publication Stats

3k Citations
1,165.31 Total Impact Points

Institutions

  • 2007–2014
    • Erasmus MC
      • • Department of Epidemiology
      • • Research Group for Public Health
      • • Department of Radiology
      Rotterdam, South Holland, Netherlands
  • 2013
    • Delft University of Technology
      Delft, South Holland, Netherlands
    • Medical University of Graz
      • Institute of Molecular Biology and Biochemistry
      Gratz, Styria, Austria
  • 2011–2012
    • Erasmus Universiteit Rotterdam
      • Department of Epidemiology
      Rotterdam, South Holland, Netherlands
  • 2010
    • University of Massachusetts Boston
      Boston, Massachusetts, United States