[Show abstract][Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: Background The greatest potential to reduce the burden of stroke is by primary prevention of first-ever stroke, which constitutes three quarters of all stroke. In addition to population-wide prevention strategies (the ‘mass’ approach), the ‘high risk’ approach aims to identify individuals at risk of stroke and to modify their risk factors, and risk, accordingly. Current methods of assessing and modifying stroke risk are difficult to access and implement by the general population, amongst whom most future strokes will arise. To help reduce the burden of stroke on individuals and the population a new app, the Stroke RiskometerTM, has been developed. We aim to explore the validity of the app for predicting the risk of stroke compared with current best methods. Methods 752 stroke outcomes from a sample of 9501 individuals across three countries (New Zealand, Russia and the Netherlands) were utilized to investigate the performance of a novel stroke risk prediction tool algorithm (Stroke RiskometerTM) compared with two established stroke risk score prediction algorithms (Framingham Stroke Risk Score [FSRS] and QStroke). We calculated the receiver operating characteristics (ROC) curves and area under the ROC curve (AUROC) with 95% confidence intervals, Harrels C-statistic and D-statistics for measure of discrimination, R2 statistics to indicate level of variability accounted for by each prediction algorithm, the Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic for calibration, and the sensitivity and specificity of each algorithm. Results The Stroke RiskometerTM performed well against the FSRS five-year AUROC for both males (FSRS = 75·0% (95% CI 72·3%–77·6%), Stroke RiskometerTM = 74·0(95% CI 71·3%–76·7%) and females [FSRS = 70·3% (95% CI 67·9%–72·8%, Stroke RiskometerTM = 71·5% (95% CI 69·0%–73·9%)], and better than QStroke [males – 59·7% (95% CI 57·3%–62·0%) and comparable to females = 71·1% (95% CI 69·0%–73·1%)]. Discriminative ability of all algorithms was low (C-statistic ranging from 0·51–0·56, D-statistic ranging from 0·01–0·12). Hosmer-Lemeshow illustrated that all of the predicted risk scores were not well calibrated with the observed event data (P < 0·006). Conclusions The Stroke RiskometerTM is comparable in performance for stroke prediction with FSRS and QStroke. All three algorithms performed equally poorly in predicting stroke events. The Stroke RiskometerTM will be continually developed and validated to address the need to improve the current stroke risk scoring systems to more accurately predict stroke, particularly by identifying robust ethnic/race ethnicity group and country specific risk factors.
International Journal of Stroke 01/2015; · 4.03 Impact Factor
[Show abstract][Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: Body mass index (BMI) has been used to simplify cardiovascular risk prediction models by substituting total cholesterol and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol. In the elderly, the ability of BMI as a predictor of cardiovascular disease (CVD) declines. We aimed to find the most predictive anthropometric measure for CVD risk to construct a non-laboratory-based model and to compare it with the model including laboratory measurements.
The study included 2675 women and 1902 men aged 55-79 years from the prospective population-based Rotterdam Study. We used Cox proportional hazard regression analysis to evaluate the association of BMI, waist circumference, waist-to-hip ratio and a body shape index (ABSI) with CVD, including coronary heart disease and stroke. The performance of the laboratory-based and non-laboratory-based models was evaluated by studying the discrimination, calibration, correlation and risk agreement.
Among men, ABSI was the most informative measure associated with CVD, therefore ABSI was used to construct the non-laboratory-based model. Discrimination of the non-laboratory-based model was not different than laboratory-based model (c-statistic: 0.680-vs-0.683, p=0.71); both models were well calibrated (15.3% observed CVD risk vs 16.9% and 17.0% predicted CVD risks by the non-laboratory-based and laboratory-based models, respectively) and Spearman rank correlation and the agreement between non-laboratory-based and laboratory-based models were 0.89 and 91.7%, respectively. Among women, none of the anthropometric measures were independently associated with CVD.
Among middle-aged and elderly where the ability of BMI to predict CVD declines, the non-laboratory-based model, based on ABSI, could predict CVD risk as accurately as the laboratory-based model among men.
Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.
[Show abstract][Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: Objectives
Anxiety and depression frequently co-occur in the elderly and in patients with dementia. Prior research has shown that depression is related to the risk of dementia, but the effect of anxiety on dementia remains unclear. We studied whether anxiety symptoms and anxiety disorders are associated with the risk of dementia and cognition.
Design: prospective cohort study.
Setting: population-based Rotterdam Study.
2,708 non-demented participants who underwent the Hospital Anxiety and Depression Scale (HADS) (sample I, baseline 1993-1995) and 3,069 non-demented participants who underwent screening for anxiety disorders (sample II, baseline 2002-2004).
ments: In 1993-1995, anxiety symptoms were assessed using the HADS. In 2002-2004, anxiety disorders were assessed using the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, Fourth Edition. In both study samples, participants were continuously monitored for dementia until January 1, 2011. Cognition was tested in 2002-2004 and at a follow-up visit in 2009-2011 in sample II only.
In sample I, 358 persons developed dementia and in sample II, 248 persons developed dementia. We did not find an association with the risk of dementia for anxiety symptoms (hazard ratio (HR) 1.05, 95%-confidence interval (CI) 0.77; 1.43, Wald-statistic 0.08, p-value 0.77, degrees of freedom (df) 1) or for anxiety disorders (HR 0.92, 95%-CI 0.58; 1.45, Wald-statistic 0.14, p-value 0.71, df 1). We could demonstrate an association of anxiety disorders with poor cognition cross-sectionally, but this attenuated after additional adjustments.
Our findings do not offer evidence for an association between anxiety symptoms or anxiety disorders with the risk of dementia or with cognition. This suggests that anxiety is not a risk factor nor a prodrome of dementia in an elderly, community-dwelling population.
The American journal of geriatric psychiatry: official journal of the American Association for Geriatric Psychiatry 12/2014; · 3.35 Impact Factor
[Show abstract][Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: Cervical artery dissection (CeAD), a mural hematoma in a carotid or vertebral artery, is a major cause of ischemic stroke in young adults although relatively uncommon in the general population (incidence of 2.6/100,000 per year)1. Minor cervical traumas, infection, migraine and hypertension are putative risk factors1, 2, 3, and inverse associations with obesity and hypercholesterolemia are described3, 4. No confirmed genetic susceptibility factors have been identified using candidate gene approaches5. We performed genome-wide association studies (GWAS) in 1,393 CeAD cases and 14,416 controls. The rs9349379[G] allele (PHACTR1) was associated with lower CeAD risk (odds ratio (OR) = 0.75, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.69–0.82; P = 4.46 × 10−10), with confirmation in independent follow-up samples (659 CeAD cases and 2,648 controls; P = 3.91 × 10−3; combined P = 1.00 × 10−11). The rs9349379[G] allele was previously shown to be associated with lower risk of migraine and increased risk of myocardial infarction6, 7, 8, 9. Deciphering the mechanisms underlying this pleiotropy might provide important information on the biological underpinnings of these disabling conditions.
[Show abstract][Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: The variation between images obtained with different scanners or different imaging protocols presents a major challenge in automatic segmentation of biomedical images. This variation especially hampers the application of otherwise successful supervised-learning techniques which, in order to perform well, often require a large amount of labeled training data that is exactly representative of the target data. We therefore propose to use transfer learning for image segmentation. Transfer-learning techniques can cope with differences in distributions between training and target data, and therefore may improve performance over supervised learning for segmentation across scanners and scan protocols. We present four transfer classifiers that can train a classification scheme with only a small amount of representative training data, in addition to a larger amount of other training data with slightly different characteristics. The performance of the four transfer classifiers was compared to that of standard supervised classification on two MRI brain-segmentation tasks with multi-site data: white matter, gray matter, and CSF segmentation; and white-matter- /MS-lesion segmentation. The experiments showed that when there is only a small amount of representative training data available, transfer learning can greatly outperform common supervised-learning approaches, minimizing classification errors by up to 60%.
[Show abstract][Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: Background. Several psychosocial risk factors for complicated grief have been described. However, the association of complicated grief with cognitive and biological risk factors is unclear. The present study examined whether complicated grief and normal grief are related to cognitive performance or structural brain volumes in a large population-based study. Method. The present research comprised cross-sectional analyses embedded in the Rotterdam Study. The study included 5501 non-demented persons. Participants were classified as experiencing no grief (n = 4731), normal grief (n = 615) or complicated grief (n = 155) as assessed with the Inventory of Complicated Grief. All persons underwent cognitive testing (Mini-Mental State Examination, Letter-Digit Substitution Test, Stroop Test, Word Fluency Task, word learning test - immediate and delayed recall), and magnetic resonance imaging to measure general brain parameters (white matter, gray matter), and white matter lesions. Total brain volume was defined as the sum of gray matter plus normal white matter and white matter lesion volume. Persons with depressive disorders were excluded and analyses were adjusted for depressive symptoms. Results. Compared with no-grief participants, participants with complicated grief had lower scores for the Letter-Digit Substitution Test [Z-score -0.16 v. 0.04, 95% confidence interval (CI) -0.36 to -0.04, p = 0.01] and Word Fluency Task (Z-score -0.15 v. 0.03, 95% CI -0.35 to -0.02, p = 0.02) and smaller total volumes of brain matter (933.53 ml v. 952.42 ml, 95% CI -37.6 to -0.10, p = 0.04). Conclusions. Participants with complicated grief performed poorly in cognitive tests and had a smaller total brain volume. Although the effect sizes were small, these findings suggest that there may be a neurological correlate of complicated grief, but not of normal grief, in the general population.
[Show abstract][Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: It remains undetermined whether the use of coumarin anticoagulants associates with cerebral microbleeds in the general population. We investigated whether (1) coumarin use relates to higher prevalence and incidence of microbleeds, (2) microbleeds are more frequent in people with higher maximum international normalized ratios (INRs), and (3) among coumarin users, variability in INR associates with microbleed presence.
[Show abstract][Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: We examined whether consumption of total dairy and dairy subgroups was related to incident stroke and coronary heart disease (CHD) in a general older Dutch population.
[Show abstract][Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: Coffee, a major dietary source of caffeine, is among the most widely consumed beverages in the world and has received considerable attention regarding health risks and benefits. We conducted a genome-wide (GW) meta-analysis of predominately regular-type coffee consumption (cups per day) among up to 91 462 coffee consumers of European ancestry with top single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) followed-up in ~30 062 and 7964 coffee consumers of European and African-American ancestry, respectively. Studies from both stages were combined in a trans-ethnic meta-analysis. Confirmed loci were examined for putative functional and biological relevance. Eight loci, including six novel loci, met GW significance (log10Bayes factor (BF)>5.64) with per-allele effect sizes of 0.03-0.14 cups per day. Six are located in or near genes potentially involved in pharmacokinetics (ABCG2, AHR, POR and CYP1A2) and pharmacodynamics (BDNF and SLC6A4) of caffeine. Two map to GCKR and MLXIPL genes related to metabolic traits but lacking known roles in coffee consumption. Enhancer and promoter histone marks populate the regions of many confirmed loci and several potential regulatory SNPs are highly correlated with the lead SNP of each. SNP alleles near GCKR, MLXIPL, BDNF and CYP1A2 that were associated with higher coffee consumption have previously been associated with smoking initiation, higher adiposity and fasting insulin and glucose but lower blood pressure and favorable lipid, inflammatory and liver enzyme profiles (P<5 × 10(-8)).Our genetic findings among European and African-American adults reinforce the role of caffeine in mediating habitual coffee consumption and may point to molecular mechanisms underlying inter-individual variability in pharmacological and health effects of coffee.Molecular Psychiatry advance online publication, 7 October 2014; doi:10.1038/mp.2014.107.
[Show abstract][Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: Observations that migraine increases risk of cardiovascular disease and ischemic brain changes may suggest sustained vascular differences between migraineurs and controls. In a population-based setting, we compared cerebral blood flow between migraineurs in the attack-free period and controls.
Cephalalgia : an international journal of headache. 10/2014;
[Show abstract][Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: Background
Gait is increasingly considered an important indicator of health. Yet, little is known on the relation of gait with established health indicators, e.g. daily functioning. Although gait differs by sex, it is unknown whether different gait domains provide different health indicators in men or women. We investigated how gait associates with basic and instrumental activities of daily living (BADL and IADL) in community-dwelling persons.
In 2500 participants of the population-based Rotterdam Study (aged ≥50yrs), gait was assessed by electronic walkway and summarised into seven independent gait domains: Pace, Rhythm, Phases, Tandem, Turning, Variability, Base of Support, which were averaged into Global Gait. We assessed BADL with the disability index of the Stanford Health Assessment Questionnaire and IADL with the Instrumental Activities of Daily Living scale. BADL and IADL were analysed as continuous scores, and dichotomised: with impairment defined as moderate to very severe disability.
In men, Global Gait, Pace, and Rhythm associated with BADL in linear analyses. In contrast, all domains except Base of Support associated with BADL or IADL in women. Associations of Global Gait and Phases with BADL were significantly stronger in women (p-interaction < 0.05). Similarly, associations of Global Gait, Rhythm, and Phases with IADL were stronger in women (p-interaction < 0.05). For dichotomised analyses, higher Global Gait, Pace, and Rhythm associated with less BADL-impairment in men, while Global Gait associated with less BADL and IADL-impairment in women.
In men, Pace and Rhythm may suffice as health indicators, while women may require comprehensive gait assessment to better estimate their health status.
[Show abstract][Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: -Dimethylarginines (DMA) interfere with nitric oxide (NO) formation by inhibiting NO synthase (asymmetric dimethylarginine, ADMA) and L-arginine uptake into the cell (ADMA and symmetric dimethylarginine, SDMA). In prospective clinical studies ADMA has been characterized as a cardiovascular risk marker whereas SDMA is a novel marker for renal function and associated with all-cause mortality after ischemic stroke. The aim of the current study was to characterise the environmental and genetic contributions to inter-individual variability of these biomarkers.
[Show abstract][Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: The aim of our study is to investigate whether single-nucleotide dystrophin gene (DMD) variants associate with variability in cognitive functions in healthy populations. The study included 1240 participants from the Erasmus Rucphen family (ERF) study and 1464 individuals from the Rotterdam Study (RS). The participants whose exomes were sequenced and who were assessed for various cognitive traits were included in the analysis. To determine the association between DMD variants and cognitive ability, linear (mixed) modeling with adjustment for age, sex and education was used. Moreover, Sequence Kernel Association Test (SKAT) was used to test the overall association of the rare genetic variants present in the DMD with cognitive traits. Although no DMD variant surpassed the prespecified significance threshold (P<1 × 10(-4)), rs147546024:A>G showed strong association (β=1.786, P-value=2.56 × 10(-4)) with block-design test in the ERF study, while another variant rs1800273:G>A showed suggestive association (β=-0.465, P-value=0.002) with Mini-Mental State Examination test in the RS. Both variants are highly conserved, although rs147546024:A>G is an intronic variant, whereas rs1800273:G>A is a missense variant in the DMD which has a predicted damaging effect on the protein. Further gene-based analysis of DMD revealed suggestive association (P-values=0.087 and 0.074) with general cognitive ability in both cohorts. In conclusion, both single variant and gene-based analyses suggest the existence of variants in the DMD which may affect cognitive functioning in the general populations.European Journal of Human Genetics advance online publication, 17 September 2014; doi:10.1038/ejhg.2014.183.
European journal of human genetics: EJHG 09/2014; · 3.56 Impact Factor
[Show abstract][Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: When studying the causal effect of drug use in observational data, marginal structural modeling (MSM) can be used to adjust for time-dependent confounders that are affected by previous treatment. The objective of this study was to compare traditional Cox proportional hazard models (with and without time-dependent covariates) with MSM to study causal effects of time-dependent drug use. The example of primary prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) with statins was examined using up to 17.7 years of follow-up from 4,654 participants of the observational prospective population-based Rotterdam Study. In the MSM model, the weight was based on measurements of established cardiovascular risk factors and co-morbidity. In general, we could not demonstrate important differences in results from the Cox models and MSM. Results from analysis on duration of statin use suggested that substantial residual confounding by indication was not accounted for during the period shortly after statin initiation. In conclusion, although on theoretical grounds MSM is an elegant technique, lack of data on the precise time-dependent confounders, such as indication of treatment or other considerations of the prescribing physician jeopardizes the calculation of valid weights. Confounding remains a hurdle in observational effectiveness research on preventive drugs with a multitude of prescription determinants.
European Journal of Epidemiology 09/2014; · 5.12 Impact Factor
[Show abstract][Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: While both cardiac dysfunction and progressive loss of cognitive functioning are prominent features of an aging population, surprisingly few studies have addressed the link between heart and brain function. This is probably due to the monodisciplinary approach to these problems by cardiologists, neurologists, and geriatricians. Recent data indicate that autoregulation of cerebral flow cannot always protect the brain from hypoperfusion when cardiac output is reduced or atherosclerosis is prominent. This suggests a close link between cardiac function and large vessel atherosclerosis on the one hand and brain perfusion and cognitive functioning on the other. In a national research program, we will test the hypothesis that impaired hemodynamic status of both heart and brain is an important and potentially reversible cause of vascular cognitive impairment (VCI) offering promising opportunities for treatment. Using a multidisciplinary approach, we will address the following questions: 1) To what extent do hemodynamic changes contribute to VCI? 2) What are the mechanisms involved? 3) Does improvement of the hemodynamic status lead to improvement of cognitive dysfunction? To this end we will perform clinical studies in elderly patients with clinically manifest VCI, carotid occlusive disease, or heart failure and evaluate their cardiac and large vascular function, atherosclerotic load, and cerebral perfusion with a comprehensive magnetic resonance imaging protocol and thoroughly test their cognitive function. We will also analyze epidemiological data from the Rotterdam Study.
Journal of Alzheimer's disease: JAD 09/2014; · 4.17 Impact Factor
[Show abstract][Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: Subclinical thyroid dysfunction has been associated with coronary heart disease, but the risk of stroke is unclear. Our aim is to combine the evidence on the association between subclinical thyroid dysfunction and the risk of stroke in prospective cohort studies. We searched Medline (OvidSP), Embase, Web-of-Science, Pubmed Publisher, Cochrane and Google Scholar from inception to November 2013 using a cohort filter, but without language restriction or other limitations. Reference lists of articles were searched. Two independent reviewers screened articles according to pre-specified criteria and selected prospective cohort studies with baseline thyroid function measurements and assessment of stroke outcomes. Data were derived using a standardized data extraction form. Quality was assessed according to previously defined quality indicators by two independent reviewers. We pooled the outcomes using a random-effects model. Of 2,274 articles screened, six cohort studies, including 11,309 participants with 665 stroke events, met the criteria. Four of six studies provided information on subclinical hyperthyroidism including a total of 6,029 participants and five on subclinical hypothyroidism (n = 10,118). The pooled hazard ratio (HR) was 1.08 (95 % CI 0.87-1.34) for subclinical hypothyroidism (I (2) of 0 %) and 1.17 (95 % CI 0.54-2.56) for subclinical hyperthyroidism (I (2) of 67 %) compared to euthyroidism. Subgroup analyses yielded similar results. Our systematic review provides no evidence supporting an increased risk for stroke associated with subclinical thyroid dysfunction. However, the available literature is insufficient and larger datasets are needed to perform extended analyses. Also, there were insufficient events to exclude clinically significant risk from subclinical hyperthyroidism, and more data are required for subgroup analyses.
European Journal of Epidemiology 09/2014; · 5.12 Impact Factor