[Show abstract][Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a major health issue for HIV-positive individuals, associated with increased morbidity and mortality. Development and implementation of a risk score model for CKD would allow comparison of the risks and benefits of adding potentially nephrotoxic antiretrovirals to a treatment regimen and would identify those at greatest risk of CKD. The aims of this study were to develop a simple, externally validated, and widely applicable long-term risk score model for CKD in HIV-positive individuals that can guide decision making in clinical practice.
A total of 17,954 HIV-positive individuals from the Data Collection on Adverse Events of Anti-HIV Drugs (D:A:D) study with ≥3 estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) values after 1 January 2004 were included. Baseline was defined as the first eGFR > 60 ml/min/1.73 m2 after 1 January 2004; individuals with exposure to tenofovir, atazanavir, atazanavir/ritonavir, lopinavir/ritonavir, other boosted protease inhibitors before baseline were excluded. CKD was defined as confirmed (>3 mo apart) eGFR ≤ 60 ml/min/1.73 m2. Poisson regression was used to develop a risk score, externally validated on two independent cohorts. In the D:A:D study, 641 individuals developed CKD during 103,185 person-years of follow-up (PYFU; incidence 6.2/1,000 PYFU, 95% CI 5.7-6.7; median follow-up 6.1 y, range 0.3-9.1 y). Older age, intravenous drug use, hepatitis C coinfection, lower baseline eGFR, female gender, lower CD4 count nadir, hypertension, diabetes, and cardiovascular disease (CVD) predicted CKD. The adjusted incidence rate ratios of these nine categorical variables were scaled and summed to create the risk score. The median risk score at baseline was -2 (interquartile range -4 to 2). There was a 1:393 chance of developing CKD in the next 5 y in the low risk group (risk score < 0, 33 events), rising to 1:47 and 1:6 in the medium (risk score 0-4, 103 events) and high risk groups (risk score ≥ 5, 505 events), respectively. Number needed to harm (NNTH) at 5 y when starting unboosted atazanavir or lopinavir/ritonavir among those with a low risk score was 1,702 (95% CI 1,166-3,367); NNTH was 202 (95% CI 159-278) and 21 (95% CI 19-23), respectively, for those with a medium and high risk score. NNTH was 739 (95% CI 506-1462), 88 (95% CI 69-121), and 9 (95% CI 8-10) for those with a low, medium, and high risk score, respectively, starting tenofovir, atazanavir/ritonavir, or another boosted protease inhibitor. The Royal Free Hospital Clinic Cohort included 2,548 individuals, of whom 94 individuals developed CKD (3.7%) during 18,376 PYFU (median follow-up 7.4 y, range 0.3-12.7 y). Of 2,013 individuals included from the SMART/ESPRIT control arms, 32 individuals developed CKD (1.6%) during 8,452 PYFU (median follow-up 4.1 y, range 0.6-8.1 y). External validation showed that the risk score predicted well in these cohorts. Limitations of this study included limited data on race and no information on proteinuria.
Both traditional and HIV-related risk factors were predictive of CKD. These factors were used to develop a risk score for CKD in HIV infection, externally validated, that has direct clinical relevance for patients and clinicians to weigh the benefits of certain antiretrovirals against the risk of CKD and to identify those at greatest risk of CKD.
PLoS Medicine 03/2015; 12(3):e1001809. DOI:10.1371/journal.pmed.1001809 · 14.43 Impact Factor
[Show abstract][Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: SUMMARY: The WHO MONICA Project is designed to measure the trends in mortality and morbidity from coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke, and to assess the extent to which they are related to changes in known risk factors in different populations in 27 countries. Risk-factor data are collected from population samples examined in at least two population surveys (one at the beginning of the study and the other at the end). The results of the baseline population surveys are presented. In populations studied, the proportion of smokers varied between 34-62% among men and 3-52% among women. The population median of systolic blood pressure varied between 121-146 mmHg in men. In women the figures were 118 mmHg and 141 mmHg respectively. In diastolic blood pressure, the variation of median was from 74 mmHg to over 91 mmHg among men and from 72-89 mmHg among women. The third major risk factor considered was total cholesterol, with the population median ranging between 4.1-6.4 mmol/l among men and 4.2-6.3 mmol/l among women. Caution is required when making cross-sectional comparisons between the risk-factor levels as the MONICA Project was not designed for this purpose. Nevertheless, these data demonstrate clearly the large variety of baseline risk-factor patterns in populations studied in the MONICA Project.
MeSH Terms: Adult; Australia; Blood Pressure; Body Weight; China; Cholesterol/blood; Coronary Disease/etiology*; Data Interpretation, Statistical; Europe; Female; Humans; Male; Middle Aged; Population Surveillance*; Quality Control; Risk Factors; Smoking/statistics & numerical data; USSR; World Health Organization;
[Show abstract][Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: Thrombin potently activates platelets through the protease-activated receptor PAR-1. Vorapaxar is a novel antiplatelet agent that selectively inhibits the cellular actions of thrombin through antagonism of PAR-1.
We randomly assigned 26,449 patients who had a history of myocardial infarction, ischemic stroke, or peripheral arterial disease to receive vorapaxar (2.5 mg daily) or matching placebo and followed them for a median of 30 months. The primary efficacy end point was the composite of death from cardiovascular causes, myocardial infarction, or stroke. After 2 years, the data and safety monitoring board recommended discontinuation of the study treatment in patients with a history of stroke owing to the risk of intracranial hemorrhage.
At 3 years, the primary end point had occurred in 1028 patients (9.3%) in the vorapaxar group and in 1176 patients (10.5%) in the placebo group (hazard ratio for the vorapaxar group, 0.87; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.80 to 0.94; P<0.001). Cardiovascular death, myocardial infarction, stroke, or recurrent ischemia leading to revascularization occurred in 1259 patients (11.2%) in the vorapaxar group and 1417 patients (12.4%) in the placebo group (hazard ratio, 0.88; 95% CI, 0.82 to 0.95; P=0.001). Moderate or severe bleeding occurred in 4.2% of patients who received vorapaxar and 2.5% of those who received placebo (hazard ratio, 1.66; 95% CI, 1.43 to 1.93; P<0.001). There was an increase in the rate of intracranial hemorrhage in the vorapaxar group (1.0%, vs. 0.5% in the placebo group; P<0.001).
Inhibition of PAR-1 with vorapaxar reduced the risk of cardiovascular death or ischemic events in patients with stable atherosclerosis who were receiving standard therapy. However, it increased the risk of moderate or severe bleeding, including intracranial hemorrhage. (Funded by Merck; TRA 2P-TIMI 50 ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00526474.).
New England Journal of Medicine 03/2012; 366(15):1404-13. DOI:10.1056/NEJMoa1200933 · 55.87 Impact Factor
[Show abstract][Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: To test the relationship between job strain and the incidence of ischaemic heart disease (IHD) prospectively in the Danish working population.
In 1986, a clinical examination was undertaken of 659 men, all employed and without known IHD, together with a questionnaire-based evaluation of living conditions and psychosocial factors at work, including items identified in the job strain model. This study was part of the World Health Organization-initiated MONICA II study. In the job strain model, job strain is defined as the combination of high psychological demands and a low degree of control in the work situation. An objective classification of the components in the job strain model was made by imputation by utilizing the participants' job title and the principles guiding the payment of their salaries/wages. In addition, a questionnaire-based subjective classification was undertaken. All participants were followed until the end of 1999 with regard to hospitalization and death as a result of IHD. Stepwise analyses were made, adjusting for age, social class, social network and established behavioural and physiological coronary risk factors. Self-reported job strain was significantly associated with IHD independently of standard coronary risk factors. Of the two components in the job strain model only high demands contributed significantly to this result. The study did not support the job strain hypothesis when an imputed, objective classification of the components in the job strain model was applied. This is in accordance with the majority of other studies in this area. An unexpected finding was that the incidence of IHD was highest among employers and managers.
High psychological demands at work are a risk factor for IHD, a fact that should affect the primary and secondary prevention of IHD.
European Journal of Cardiovascular Prevention and Rehabilitation 07/2006; 13(3):414-20. DOI:10.1097/01.hjr.0000201512.05720.87 · 3.69 Impact Factor
[Show abstract][Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: To assess the development in frequency and clustering of hypertension, hypercholesterolaemia, high body mass index (BMI), physical inactivity and tobacco smoking in the period 1964-1992, and to evaluate any sex and age differences.
Five cross-sectional investigations on cardiovascular risk factors performed in 1964, 1978, 1982-1984, 1986-1987 and 1991-1992 comprising random samples in a suburban area of Copenhagen, Denmark. Physical activity during leisure time and smoking habits were assessed by self-administered questionnaire. Blood pressure, weight, height and serum total cholesterol were measured according to WHO standards.
A total of 8644 persons aged 30, 40, 50 and 60 years participated with an equal number of men and women. Women had fewer risk factors than men and younger persons had fewer risk factors than older persons. In the period 1964-1992 there was a decreasing number of risk factors. The 50 year olds show a sex difference in the period 1982-1992, whereas there was no sex difference among the 60 year olds. Tobacco smoking was the most common risk factor. BMI > 27.5 has become more and more frequent throughout the period, especially in men. The BMI has conquered third place in all age groups. The association of BMI > 27.5 and sedentary leisure time physical activity has become the most frequent.
Clustering among risk factors decreased over time in both sexes. The association of elevated BMI and sedentary leisure time activity may contribute to the rising frequency of chronic disease such as diabetes mellitus and cardiovascular disease.
[Show abstract][Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: Background: It remains controversial whether exposure to combination antiretroviral treatment increases the risk of myocardial infarction. Methods: In this prospective observational study, we enrolled 23,468 patients from 11 previously established cohorts from December 1999 to April 2001 and collected follow-up data until February 2002. Data were collected on infection with the human immunodeficiency virus and on risk factors for and the incidence of myocardial infarction. Relative rates were calculated with Poisson regression models. Combination antiretroviral therapy was defined as any combination regimen of antiretroviral drugs that included a protease inhibitor or a nonnucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor. Results: Over a period of 36,199 person-years, 126 patients had a myocardial infarction. The incidence of myocardial infarction increased with longer exposure to combination antiretroviral therapy (adjusted relative rate per year of exposure, 1.26 [95 percent confidence interval, 1.12 to 1.41]; P<0.001). Other factors significantly associated with myocardial infarction were older age, current or former smoking, previous cardiovascular disease, and male sex, but not a family history of coronary heart disease. A higher total serum cholesterol level, a higher triglyceride level, and the presence of diabetes were also associated with an increased incidence of myocardial infarction. Conclusions: Combination antiretroviral therapy was independently associated with a 26 percent relative increase in the rate of myocardial infarction per year of exposure during the first four to six years of use. However, the absolute risk of myocardial infarction was low and must be balanced against the marked benefits from antiretroviral treatment.
New England Journal of Medicine 11/2003; 349(21):1993-2003. · 55.87 Impact Factor
[Show abstract][Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: Secular trends in AMI rates were analyzed in relation to physical activity levels. The population attributable risk of physical inactivity was calculated.
Participants were randomly selected subjects from a suburb of Copenhagen, Denmark, screened during the years 1964–1991. Occupational physical activity and in leisure time were assessed 1964, 1974, 1976, 1982, 1987 and 1991 by self-administered questionnaire along with smoking habits and alcohol consumption. Blood pressure, weight, height and serum lipids were measured according to WHO-standards.
Mortality data were obtained from death certificates, from hospital records or autopsies. Acute myocardial infarctions (AMI) 1964–1994 were included. 13.925 men and women aged 30, 40, 50 and 60 years, were drawn as random samples from a background population of 300.000 inhabitants. A cohort born in 1914 was examined in 1964 and 1974, a cohort born in 1936, was examined in 1976 and 1987; Monica (Monitoring trends and determinants in cardiovascular diseases) I cohort were examined in 1982 and 1987; MONICA II in 1986, and MONICA III in 1991.
Mean physical activity level at leisure adjusted for age and sex increased over time (P < 0001). 25% of the men were sedentary, and more women reported a sedentary lifestyle than men. The overall trend was from 1964 to 1992 a decline in physical activity at work (P < 0001) in both gender and all age groups.
The difference in AMI incidence rates between leisure time physical activity (LTPA) levels increased over time. No change was found in AMI rates comparing sedentary in different time periods. A remarkable decrease over time in the AMI incidence rate was found in physically active during leisure time. Population attributable risk (PAR) exceeded 40% in both genders in the late 1980s.
In conclusion the difference in AMI rates between LTPA subgroups has increased over time. The low AMI rates observed among the most physically active reveal a substantial potential for the prevention of AMI through physical activity. A population attributable risk of more than 40% for physical inactivity suggests a potential for primary prevention through increased physical activity.
Scandinavian Journal of Medicine and Science in Sports 09/2003; 13(4):224-30. DOI:10.1034/j.1600-0838.2003.00310.x · 2.90 Impact Factor
[Show abstract][Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: The incidence rate of a first myocardial infarction declined 3-5% annually in the Danish WHO MONICA population in the period from 1982 to 1991. The aim of this study was to investigate whether levels of the most commonly considered biological traits associated with cardiovascular risk have changed in the Danish MONICA population during this period.
Data from 6,695 men and women of 30, 40, 50 and 60 years of age, examined in the Danish WHO MONICA surveys in 1982-1984, 1986-1987, and 1991-1992, were analysed to estimate temporal trends in body height and weight, blood pressure, and serum total, HDL, and LDL cholesterol, and triglyceride.
Body height increased by 0.1% per year and the body mass index by 0.4% per year in women. The diastolic blood pressure increased 0.4% per year in women and 0.6% per year in 60-year-old men. HDL cholesterol declined 0.4% per year. Body mass indices in men, diastolic blood pressures in men < 60 years of age, systolic blood pressures, total and LDL cholesterol and triglyceride did not change.
The levels of biological risk factors in the Danish WHO MONICA study population did not show trends during the 1980s that contribute to explain the declining incidence of myocardial infarction in the population.
[Show abstract][Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: Objectives. This report analyzes cigarette smoking over 10 years in populations in the World Health Organization (WHO) MONICA Project (to monitor trends and determinants of cardiovascular disease).
Methods. Over 300 000 randomly selected subjects aged 25 to 64 years participated in surveys conducted in geographically defined populations.
Results. For men, smoking prevalence decreased by more than 5% in 16 of the 36 study populations, remained static in most others, but increased in Beijing. Where prevalence decreased, this was largely due to higher proportions of never smokers in the younger age groups rather than to smokers quitting. Among women, smoking prevalence increased by more than 5% in 6 populations and decreased by more than 5% in 9 populations. For women, smoking tended to increase in populations with low prevalence and decrease in populations with higher prevalence; for men, the reverse pattern was observed.
Conclusions. These data illustrate the evolution of the smoking epidemic in populations and provide the basis for targeted public health interventions to support the WHO priority for tobacco control.
American Journal of Public Health 02/2001; 91(2):206–212. · 4.55 Impact Factor
[Show abstract][Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: Data from 6695 men and women of ages 30, 40, 50, and 60 years, examined in the Danish WHO MONICA surveys in 1982-84, in 1986-87, and in 1991-92, were analyzed to estimate secular trends in body height and weight, blood pressure, and serum total, HDL-, and LDL-cholesterol, and triglyceride. Body height increased 0.1% per year, and body mass index increased 0.4% per year in women. Diastolic blood pressure increased 0.4% per year in women and 0.6% per year in 60-year-old men. HDL cholesterol declined 0.4% per year. Body mass indices in men, diastolic blood pressures in men <60 years of age, systolic blood pressures, total- and LDL cholesterol and triglyceride did not change. The levels of biological risk factors in the Danish WHO MONICA study population did not show trends during the 1980s that help explain the declining incidence of myocardial infarction in the population.
[Show abstract][Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: To study the importance of inflammation and fibrinolysis for evolution of ischaemic heart disease in a cohort of initially healthy subjects.
Nested case-control study. Follow-up periods 7-15 years.
Included in the study were 133 cases with coronary heart disease and 258 controls.
Subjects with ischaemic heart disease identified in 1991 by the Danish National Hospital Register. Protein concentration of C-reactive protein (CRP) and tissue-type plasminogen activator (t-PA) were measured with ELISA methods in stored serum samples.
CRP and t-PA concentrations were both significantly higher in cases than in controls (P < 0.001 and P < 0. 001). This difference between cases and controls for CRP and t-PA was present in both men (CRP: P = 0.022; t-PA: P = 0.001) and women (CRP: P = 0.013; t-PA: P = 0.005) and it was present in both the 7-9 years follow-up cohort (CRP: P = 0.014; t-PA: P = 0.001) and the 15 years follow-up cohort (CRP: P = 0.027; t-PA: P = 0.012). The best predictor of CRP was t-PA, whilst the best predictor of t-PA was triglycerides. In a logistic regression analysis model, t-PA still came out as independent predictor of coronary heart disease, whilst such a significance disappeared for CRP. With the use of ROC curves we determined that AUC for t-PA was 0.62, and for CRP 0.59, indicating that none of these two analytes has a high prognostic power in predicting future coronary events in an initially healthy population.
We conclude that moderate increases in serum concentrations of CRP and t-PA are present for up to 15 years before the presence of clinical overt coronary heart disease; that a low-grade inflammation is determined by other risk factors and that t-PA is an independent risk factor for evolution of coronary heart disease.
Journal of Internal Medicine 03/2000; 247(2):205-12. DOI:10.1046/j.1365-2796.2000.00604.x · 6.06 Impact Factor
[Show abstract][Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: Studies of time trends in smoking prevalence provide a better understanding of the determinants of smoking. The present study analyses changes over time in the prevalence of smoking and heavy smoking in relation to sex, age, and education.
Data on smoking behaviour were collected by questionnaire in random samples of the general population in the area of Copenhagen. The database used included 71,842 measurements of smoking behaviour for 32,156 subjects aged 30 years or more, who had been examined at intervals between 1964 and 1994. In bi- and multivariate analyses the effects of sex, age, education, time period, and study group on the prevalence of smoking and of heavy smoking were assessed.
Smoking was least prevalent in women, in the oldest age group (more than 70 years), and among those with 8 years or more of school education. During the study period (from 1964/74 to 1990/94), the prevalence of smoking decreased from 72% to 54% in men and from 52% to 46% in women. In both men and women this decrease was smallest in the least educated (less than 8 years of school education). Heavy smoking was also least prevalent in women, in the oldest age group, and among the well educated. During the study period, the unadjusted prevalence of heavy smoking decreased from 52% to 38% in men, while it increased from 17% to 21% in women. The multivariate analysis showed that the time trend for heavy smoking only depended on sex, while educational attainment and age had no impact on the trend.
During the last 30 years the prevalence of smoking has decreased in Denmark. The decrease has been smallest in women, and among the least educated, and the increasing trend in the prevalence of heavy smoking in women is a cause for concern.
Scandinavian journal of social medicine 01/1999; 26(4):293-8.
[Show abstract][Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: Background: Studies of time trends in smoking prevalence provide a better understanding of the determinants of smoking. The present study analyses changes over time in the prevalence of smoking and heavy smoking in relation to sex, age, and education.
Scandinavian Journal of Public Health 10/1998; 26(4):293-298. DOI:10.1177/14034948980260041101 · 1.83 Impact Factor
[Show abstract][Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: Hypertension is an essential risk factor for development of cardiovascular diseases. Prospective studies show a reduction in risk of myocardial infarction with reduction of blood pressure. In Denmark there was a decrease in ischaemic heart disease mortality during the period (1968-1992) with around 34% in 30-65 year old men and 30% in women.
To assess the changes in casual blood pressure between 1964 and 1991 in seven cross-sectional population studies.
Centre of Preventive Medicine, University of Copenhagen, DK-2600 Glostrup.
10359 subjects, equal numbers of men and women, age exactly 30, 40, 50 and 60 years drawn as random samples from a background population of 300000 inhabitants and surveyed in 1964-1974 and five cross-sectional studies 1976, 1978, 1982-1984, 1986-1987 and 1991.
Blood pressure was measured according to WHO criteria by one technician in each survey. Alcohol consumption and physical activity were measured by a self-administered questionnaire. The weight and height were measured by standardized methods. Data on mortality from ischaemic heart disease were obtained from death certificates recorded by the National Board of Health.
Blood pressure increased with increasing age in both genders and was significantly higher in men than in women. Median blood pressure in 50 year old men in 1964 was 135/85 mmHg and in 1991 it was 123/79, whereas in women in 1964 it was 140/85, against 119/74 in 1991. The prevalence of hypertensives among 30 and 40 year olds declined throughout the period. The performance of blood pressure measurements, technical variation, examination programme, seasonal variation and inter-observer variation were potential bias sources and influenced blood pressure levels, but cannot be shown to be responsible for the declining trend in blood pressure and hypertension. Women became a little more physical active in leisure time and men less active. Women consumed less alcohol than men, but the amounts slightly increased by the end of the period. Body mass index >25 was seen less frequently in women than in men and this increased in men over the period. Sale of antihypertensive drugs increased in Denmark over the 1964-1991 period. There seems to be good agreement between the changes in blood pressure in the population and the decline in mortality from stroke and coronary heart disease in Denmark, which is influenced by other risk factors as well.
Blood pressure distributions have shifted towards lower values in 1964-1991. Prevalence of hypertension declined up to 1983. Risk factor changes as well as treatment for hypertension contribute to this.
International Journal of Epidemiology 09/1998; 27(4):614-22. · 9.18 Impact Factor
[Show abstract][Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: The objective of the present study was to examine the possible associations between low molecular weight (LMW) apolipoprotein(a) (apo(a)) isoforms (F,B,S1,S2) and coronary heart disease (CHD). We conducted a nested case-control (prospective) study of five cohorts of white men: The 1936 cohort (baseline 1976, n = 548) and four cohorts from MONICA I born in 1923 (n = 463), 1933 (n = 491), 1943 (n = 504) and 1953 (n = 448) studied at baseline in 1983. At follow up in 1991, 52 subjects had developed a first myocardial infarction and 22 had been hospitalized with angina pectoris. Plasma samples obtained at baseline were stored frozen until 1993-94, when case samples (n = 74) were analyzed together with samples from matched (disease free) controls (n = 190). In a statistical model (conditional logistic regression) including all age groups, cholesterol (or apo B) level (P < 0.01), systolic blood pressure (P = 0.05) and smoking (P = 0.02) predicted CHD. In the statistical model Lp(a) interacted significantly with age (OR = 5.7; 95% CI: 1.4-23.6; P = 0.016), and high Lp(a) (over 45 mg/dl) was associated with significantly increased risk in subjects under 60 years (OR = 3.82; 95% CI: 1.47-9.96), but not in older men (OR = 0.67; 95% CI: 0.235-1.89). Therefore, we studied the impact of Lp(a)/apo(a) and other variables in subjects who had been under 60 years when they became cases. Among the younger subjects the presence of LMW apo(a) isoforms significantly predicted the development of CHD (OR = 3.83; 95% CI: 1.18-12.4). The increased risk pertained to high Lp(a) (above versus below 45 mg/dl: OR = 3.68; 95% CI: 1.03-13.10), and to Lp(a) concentrations when entered into the model as a continuous variable (P = 0.04). Cholesterol or apo B (P < 0.01), smoking (P = 0.02), systolic blood pressure (P = 0.05) and low alcohol consumption (under nine drinks/week) (P = 0.04) were also significant predictors of CHD. We conclude that LMW apo(a) isoforms are significantly associated with increased risk of CHD in men under 60 years.
[Show abstract][Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: Mortality rates in Denmark from ischaemic heart diseases (IHD), other heart diseases and sudden death of unknown cause are presented for the period 1968-1992. In all age groups, mortality from IHD is higher at the beginning of the period than at the end. For other heart disease, the plot of the mortality rate is U-shaped for the age groups 65-84 and > or = 85, whereas for the age group 30-64 it first decreases and is then constant. There are an increasing number of deaths from symptomatic heart disease. For the group of unknown cause, the rates are increasing for all sex and age groups The relationship between deaths from IHD and death from unknown cause varies with period, age, sex and region. For women in Copenhagen in the age group 30-64, the mortality rate from unknown cause is higher than the rate for IHD at the end of period. Vital statistics must therefore be used cautiously in analysing trends for IHD, and even the validity of temporal changes within a country must be questioned.
Ugeskrift for laeger 10/1996; 158(37):5161-5. DOI:10.1016/0895-4356(94)00158-M
[Show abstract][Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: The simulation model "Prevent" estimates the effect on mortality of changes of exposures to risk factors taking the multifactorial nature of the associations between risk factors and diseases, time dimensions, and demography into account. The objective of the study is to compare the actual development of ischaemic heart disease mortality in Danmark from 1982 to 1991 with the estimated mortality based on the development of four risk factors. The sources of data used in the study are national population data and mortality rates and prevalences of risk factors from population surveys (Glostrup Population Studies). Relative risk estimates are those implemented in the Dutch version of Prevent based on international literature. The risk factors are: tobacco smoking, hypertension, cholesterol, and alcohol consumption. Results are given for ages below 65 years. The pronounced decline in mortality of ischaemic heart disease in Denmark cannot be foreseen by the model based on the development of the associated risk factors. However, the combined trend of risk factors for the last 10 to 15 years is only modest and does not indicate the dramatic decline in mortality. Prevent is too simple to make a satisfactory forecast of mortality, which however, is not the main purpose of the model. By comparing the development of a reference and an intervention population the effects of unknown factors are to some extent eliminated and the model may therefore give a good impression of the benefits of preventive interventions.