Roly D Gosling

Imperial College London, London, ENG, United Kingdom

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Publications (18)191.63 Total impact

  • Article: Intermittent preventive treatment against malaria: an update.
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    ABSTRACT: Intermittent preventive treatment (IPT) against malaria is a malaria control strategy aimed at reducing the burden of malaria in certain high-risk groups, namely pregnant women and children. Three strategies - IPT in pregnancy (IPTp), infants (IPTi) and children (IPTc) - are reviewed here focusing on the mechanism of action, choice of drugs available, controversies and future research. Drugs for IPT need to be co-formulated, long acting, safe and preferably administered as a single dose. There is no obvious replacement for sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine, the most commonly utilized drug combination. All strategies face similar problems of rising drug resistance, falling malaria transmission and a policy shift from controlling disease to malaria elimination and eradication. IPT is an accepted form of malaria control, but to date only IPTp has been adopted as policy.
    Expert Review of Anticancer Therapy 05/2010; 8(5):589-606. · 3.28 Impact Factor
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    Article: Protective efficacy of intermittent preventive treatment of malaria in infants (IPTi) using sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine and parasite resistance.
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    ABSTRACT: Intermittent Preventive Treatment of malaria in infants using sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP-IPTi) is recommended by WHO for implementation in settings where resistance to SP is not high. Here we examine the relationship between the protective efficacy of SP-IPTi and measures of SP resistance. We analysed the relationship between protective efficacy reported in the 7 SP-IPTi trials and contemporaneous data from 6 in vivo efficacy studies using SP and 7 molecular studies reporting frequency of dhfr triple and dhps double mutations within 50 km of the trial sites. We found a borderline significant association between frequency of the dhfr triple mutation and protective efficacy to 12 months of age of SP-IPTi. This association is significantly biased due to differences between studies, namely number of doses of SP given and follow up times. However, fitting a simple probabilistic model to determine the relationship between the frequency of the dhfr triple, dhps double and dhfr/dhps quintuple mutations associated with resistance to SP and protective efficacy, we found a significant inverse relationship between the dhfr triple mutation frequency alone and the dhfr/dhps quintuple mutations and efficacy at 35 days post the 9 month dose and up to 12 months of age respectively. A significant relationship was found between the frequency of the dhfr triple mutation and SP-IPTi protective efficacy at 35 days post the 9 month dose. An association between the protective efficacy to 12 months of age and dhfr triple and dhfr/dhps quintuple mutations was found but should be viewed with caution due to bias. It was not possible to define a more definite relationship based on the data available from these trials.
    PLoS ONE 01/2010; 5(9):e12618. · 4.09 Impact Factor
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    Article: The cost-effectiveness of intermittent preventive treatment for malaria in infants in Sub-Saharan Africa.
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    ABSTRACT: Intermittent preventive treatment in infants (IPTi) has been shown to decrease clinical malaria by approximately 30% in the first year of life and is a promising malaria control strategy for Sub-Saharan Africa which can be delivered alongside the Expanded Programme on Immunisation (EPI). To date, there have been limited data on the cost-effectiveness of this strategy using sulfadoxine pyrimethamine (SP) and no published data on cost-effectiveness using other antimalarials. We analysed data from 5 countries in sub-Saharan Africa using a total of 5 different IPTi drug regimens; SP, mefloquine (MQ), 3 days of chlorproguanil-dapsone (CD), SP plus 3 days of artesunate (SP-AS3) and 3 days of amodiaquine-artesunate (AQ3-AS3).The cost per malaria episode averted and cost per Disability-Adjusted Life-Year (DALY) averted were modeled using both trial specific protective efficacy (PE) for all IPTi drugs and a pooled PE for IPTi with SP, malaria incidence, an estimated malaria case fatality rate of 1.57%, IPTi delivery costs and country specific provider and household malaria treatment costs. In sites where IPTi had a significant effect on reducing malaria, the cost per episode averted for IPTi-SP was very low, USD 1.36-4.03 based on trial specific data and USD 0.68-2.27 based on the pooled analysis. For IPTi using alternative antimalarials, the lowest cost per case averted was for AQ3-AS3 in western Kenya (USD 4.62) and the highest was for MQ in Korowge, Tanzania (USD 18.56). Where efficacious, based only on intervention costs, IPTi was shown to be cost effective in all the sites and highly cost-effective in all but one of the sites, ranging from USD 2.90 (Ifakara, Tanzania with SP) to USD 39.63 (Korogwe, Tanzania with MQ) per DALY averted. In addition, IPTi reduced health system costs and showed significant savings to households from malaria cases averted. A threshold analysis showed that there is room for the IPTi-efficacy to fall and still remain highly cost effective in all sites where IPTi had a statistically significant effect on clinical malaria. IPTi delivered alongside the EPI is a highly cost effective intervention against clinical malaria with a range of drugs in a range of malaria transmission settings. Where IPTi did not have a statistically significant impact on malaria, generally in low transmission sites, it was not cost effective.
    PLoS ONE 01/2010; 5(6):e10313. · 4.09 Impact Factor
  • Article: Protective efficacy and safety of three antimalarial regimens for intermittent preventive treatment for malaria in infants: a randomised, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial.
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    ABSTRACT: Administration of sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine at times of vaccination-intermittent preventive treatment in infants (IPTi)-is a promising strategy to prevent malaria. However, rising resistance to this combination is a concern. We investigated a shortacting and longacting antimalarial drug as alternative regimens for IPTi. We undertook a double-blind, placebo-controlled trial of IPTi in an area of high resistance to sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine at sites of moderate (n=1280 infants enrolled) and low (n=1139) intensity of malaria transmission in Tanzania. Infants aged 8-16 weeks were randomly assigned in blocks of 16 to sulfadoxine (250 mg) plus pyrimethamine (12.5 mg; n=319 in moderate-transmission and 283 in low-transmission sites), chlorproguanil (15 mg) plus dapsone (18.75 mg; n=317 and 285), mefloquine (125 mg; n=320 and 284), or placebo (n=320 and 284), given at the second and third immunisations for diphtheria, pertussis, and tetanus, and for measles. Research team and child were masked to treatment. Recruitment was stopped early at the low-transmission site because of low malaria incidence. The primary endpoint was protective efficacy against all episodes of clinical malaria at 2-11 months of age. Analysis was by intention to treat. This study is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00158574. All randomly assigned infants were analysed. At the moderate-transmission site, mefloquine had a protective efficacy of 38.1% (95% CI 11.8-56.5, p=0.008) against clinical malaria in infants aged 2-11 months, but neither sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine (-6.7%, -45.9 to 22.0) nor chlorproguanil-dapsone (10.8%, -24.6 to 36.1) had a protective effect. No regimen had any protective efficacy against anaemia or hospital admission. Mefloquine caused vomiting in 141 of 1731 (8%) doses given on day 1 (odds ratio vs placebo 5.50, 95% CI 3.56-8.46). More infants died in the chlorproguanil-dapsone and mefloquine groups (18 and 15, respectively) than in the sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine or placebo groups (eight deaths per group; p=0.05 for difference between chlorproguanil-dapsone and placebo). IPTi with a longacting, efficacious drug such as mefloquine can reduce episodes of malaria in infants in a moderate-transmission setting. IPTi with sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine has no benefit in areas of very high resistance to this combination. The appropriateness of IPTi should be measured by the expected incidence of malaria and the efficacy, tolerability, and safety of the drug. IPTi Consortium and the Gates Malaria Partnership.
    The Lancet 09/2009; 374(9700):1521-32. · 38.28 Impact Factor
  • Article: RTS,S/AS01E vaccine against malaria.
    Roly D Gosling, Daniel Chandramohan
    New England Journal of Medicine 04/2009; 360(12):1253; author reply 1253-4. · 53.30 Impact Factor
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    Article: High resistance of Plasmodium falciparum to sulphadoxine/pyrimethamine in northern Tanzania and the emergence of dhps resistance mutation at Codon 581.
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    ABSTRACT: Sulphadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP) a widely used treatment for uncomplicated malaria and recommended for intermittent preventive treatment of malaria in pregnancy, is being investigated for intermittent preventive treatment of malaria in infants (IPTi). High levels of drug resistance to SP have been reported from north-eastern Tanzania associated with mutations in parasite genes. This study compared the in vivo efficacy of SP in symptomatic 6-59 month children with uncomplicated malaria and in asymptomatic 2-10 month old infants. An open label single arm (SP) standard 28 day in vivo WHO antimalarial efficacy protocol was used in 6 to 59 months old symptomatic children and a modified protocol used in 2 to 10 months old asymptomatic infants. Enrolment was stopped early (87 in the symptomatic and 25 in the asymptomatic studies) due to the high failure rate. Molecular markers were examined for recrudescence, re-infection and markers of drug resistance and a review of literature of studies looking for the 581G dhps mutation was carried out. In symptomatic children PCR-corrected early treatment failure was 38.8% (95% CI 26.8-50.8) and total failures by day 28 were 82.2% (95% CI 72.5-92.0). There was no significant difference in treatment failures between asymptomatic and symptomatic children. 96% of samples carried parasites with mutations at codons 51, 59 and 108 in the dhfr gene and 63% carried a double mutation at codons 437 and 540. 55% carried a third mutation with the addition of a mutation at codon 581 in the dhps gene. This triple: triple haplotype maybe associated with earlier treatment failure. In northern Tanzania SP is a failed drug for treatment and its utility for prophylaxis is doubtful. The study found a new combination of parasite mutations that maybe associated with increased and earlier failure. ClinicalTrials.gov NCT00361114.
    PLoS ONE 02/2009; 4(2):e4569. · 4.09 Impact Factor
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    Article: Loss of population levels of immunity to malaria as a result of exposure-reducing interventions: consequences for interpretation of disease trends.
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    ABSTRACT: The persistence of malaria as an endemic infection and one of the major causes of childhood death in most parts of Africa has lead to a radical new call for a global effort towards eradication. With the deployment of a highly effective vaccine still some years away, there has been an increased focus on interventions which reduce exposure to infection in the individual and -by reducing onward transmission-at the population level. The development of appropriate monitoring of these interventions requires an understanding of the timescales of their effect. Using a mathematical model for malaria transmission which incorporates the acquisition and loss of both clinical and parasite immunity, we explore the impact of the trade-off between reduction in exposure and decreased development of immunity on the dynamics of disease following a transmission-reducing intervention such as insecticide-treated nets. Our model predicts that initially rapid reductions in clinical disease incidence will be observed as transmission is reduced in a highly immune population. However, these benefits in the first 5-10 years after the intervention may be offset by a greater burden of disease decades later as immunity at the population level is gradually lost. The negative impact of having fewer immune individuals in the population can be counterbalanced either by the implementation of highly-effective transmission-reducing interventions (such as the combined use of insecticide-treated nets and insecticide residual sprays) for an indefinite period or the concurrent use of a pre-erythrocytic stage vaccine or prophylactic therapy in children to protect those at risk from disease as immunity is lost in the population. Effective interventions will result in rapid decreases in clinical disease across all transmission settings while population-level immunity is maintained but may subsequently result in increases in clinical disease many years later as population-level immunity is lost. A dynamic, evolving intervention programme will therefore be necessary to secure substantial, stable reductions in malaria transmission.
    PLoS ONE 01/2009; 4(2):e4383. · 4.09 Impact Factor
  • Article: Effective malaria control: better burden estimates needed.
    The Lancet 04/2008; 371(9614):724. · 38.28 Impact Factor
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    Article: Can changes in malaria transmission intensity explain prolonged protection and contribute to high protective efficacy of intermittent preventive treatment for malaria in infants?
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    ABSTRACT: Intermittent preventive (or presumptive) treatment of infants (IPTi), the administration of a curative anti-malarial dose to infants whether or not they are known to be infected, is being considered as a new strategy for malaria control. Five of the six trials using sulphadoxine-pyrimethamine (SP) for IPTi showed protective efficacies (PEs) against clinical malaria ranging from 20.1 - 33.3% whilst one, the Ifakara study, showed a protective efficacy of 58.6%. The possible mechanisms that could explain the differences in the reported PE of IPTi were examined by comparing output from a mathematical model to data from the six published IPTi trials. Under stable transmission, the PE of IPTi predicted by the model was comparable with the observed PEs in all but the Ifakara study (ratio of the mean predicted PE to that observed was 1.02, range 0.39 - 1.59). When a reduction in the incidence of infection during the study was included in the model, the predicted PE of IPTi increased and extended into the second year of life, as observed in the Ifakara study. A decrease in malaria transmission during the study period may explain part of the difference in observed PEs of IPTi between sites and the extended period of protection into the second year of life observed in the Ifakara study. This finding of continued benefit of interventions in settings of decreasing transmission may explain why rebound of clinical malaria was absent in the large scale trials of insecticide-treated bed nets.
    Malaria Journal 02/2008; 7:54. · 3.19 Impact Factor
  • Article: Tackling malaria today: Beware resurgence of malaria where incidence has fallen.
    Roly D Gosling, Daniel Chandramohan
    BMJ (Clinical research ed.). 02/2008; 337:a1592.
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    Article: Intermittent preventive therapy for malaria: progress and future directions.
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    ABSTRACT: This review summarizes recent evidence regarding the efficacy of intermittent preventive treatment with focus on infancy (IPTi) and the rationale behind such a control strategy. Pooled safety and efficacy analyses of all six trials of IPTi with sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine conducted between 1999 and 2007 have demonstrated a 30% protective efficacy against clinical malaria, a 24% protective efficacy against all-cause hospital admissions, a 37% protective efficacy against malaria-related hospital admissions, and a 15% protective efficacy against anemia, all in the first year of life. Rebound in malaria following discontinuation of the intervention has not been noted in pooled analyses of the IPTi trials. Given the efficacy, excellent safety and tolerability of the intervention and the fact that it is inexpensive and easily deliverable if linked to the Expanded Programme on Immunization, IPTi-sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine appears to add a valuable tool to the malaria-control armamentarium in endemic areas of Africa. Routine monitoring of sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine efficacy will be required to guide future IPTi programme implementation. Variations of IPTi that target older children may be required for areas of Africa with highly seasonal malaria transmission.
    Current Opinion in Infectious Diseases 01/2008; 20(6):613-20. · 4.93 Impact Factor
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    Article: Presumptive treatment of fever cases as malaria: help or hindrance for malaria control?
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    ABSTRACT: Malaria incidence has been reported to be falling in several countries in sub-Saharan Africa in recent years. This fall appears to have started before the widespread introduction of insecticide-treated nets. In the new era of calls to eliminate and eradicate malaria in sub-Saharan Africa, exploring possible causes for this fall seem pertinent. The authors explore an argument that presumptive treatment of fever cases as malaria may have played a role in reducing transmission of malaria by the prophylactic effect of antimalarials and their widespread use. This strategy, which is already in practise is termed Opportunistic Presumptive Treatment (OPT). Further comparison of epidemiological indicators between areas with OPT and more targeted treatment is required. If data suggest a benefit of OPT, combining long acting antimalarials that have an anti-gametocyticidal activity component plus using high levels of vector control measures may reduce transmission, prevent resistant strains spreading and be easily implemented. OPT is practised widely by presumptive treatment of fever in health facilities and home management of fever. Improving diagnosis using rapid diagnostic tests and thus reducing the number of doses of antimalarials given may have counter intuitive effects on transmission in the context of elimination of malaria in high to moderate transmission settings.
    Malaria Journal 01/2008; 7:132. · 3.19 Impact Factor
  • Article: Beware resurgence of malaria where incidence has fallen
    Roly D Gosling, Daniel Chandramohan
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    ABSTRACT: Lines et al are concerned that the strategy of “shrinking the map” to eliminate malaria will lead to inequitable allocation of resources, development of resistance to insecticides and drugs, and inefficient combination of interventions.1 But the sustained malaria control strategy that they suggest as an alterative to elimination …
    BMJ. 12/2007; 337.
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    Article: Single-dose sulfadoxine-pyrimethamine in intermittent preventive treatment of malaria.
    The Journal of Infectious Diseases 07/2006; 193(11):1609-10; author reply 1610-1. · 6.41 Impact Factor
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    Article: Over-diagnosis of malaria is not a lost cause.
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    ABSTRACT: Recent studies have highlighted the over-diagnosis of malaria in clinical settings in Africa. This study assessed the impact of a training programme implemented as part of an intervention trial on diagnostic behaviour of clinicians in a rural district hospital in a low-moderate malaria transmission setting. From the beginning of 2005, a randomized controlled trial (RCT) of intermittent preventive treatment for malaria in infants (IPTi) has been conducted at the study hospital. As part of the RCT, the study team offered laboratory quality assurance, and supervision and training of paediatric ward staff using information on malaria epidemiology in the community. Data on clinical and blood slide confirmed cases of malaria from 2001 to 2005 were extracted from the hospital records. The proportion of blood slides positive for malaria parasites had decreased from 21% in 2001 to 7% in 2005 (p < .01). The proportion of outpatient and inpatient cases diagnosed as malaria ranged between 34% and 28% from 2001 to 2004 and this decreased substantially to 17% after the introduction of the package of training and support in 2005 (p < .01). There was no clear trend in the ratio of blood slide examined versus total diagnosis of malaria. It may be possible to change the diagnostic behaviour of clinicians by rigorous training using local malaria epidemiology data and supportive supervision.
    Malaria Journal 02/2006; 5:120. · 3.19 Impact Factor
  • Article: Early bactericidal activity of a moxifloxacin and isoniazid combination in smear-positive pulmonary tuberculosis.
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    ABSTRACT: In vitro and animal studies have shown that moxifloxacin-containing combinations may improve the bactericidal efficacy of antituberculosis regimens. We measured the decline in the sputum viable count of 13 patients who were given a combination of moxifloxacin 400 mg daily and isoniazid 300 mg daily. The time required to reduce the viable count by 50% (vt50) was 0.38 days (95% CI -0.03-0.78 days, SEM 0.13) and the mean early bactericidal activity (EBA) was 0.60 log10 cfu/day (95% CI 0.23-0.97, SEM 0.14). This compares with the vt50 calculated for isoniazid and moxifloxacin alone in the same population of 0.48 and 0.88 days, respectively. The EBA values for isoniazid and moxifloxacin alone were 0.77 and 0.53 log10 cfu/day, respectively. The combination of moxifloxacin and isoniazid is not antagonistic, but the combination does not significantly enhance bactericidal activity above that of isoniazid alone.
    Journal of Antimicrobial Chemotherapy 01/2006; 56(6):1169-71. · 5.07 Impact Factor
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    Article: The bactericidal activity of moxifloxacin in patients with pulmonary tuberculosis.
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    ABSTRACT: Patients in whom acid-fast bacilli smear-positive pulmonary tuberculosis was newly diagnosed were randomized to receive 400 mg moxifloxacin, 300 mg isonaizid, or 600 mg rifampin daily for 5 days. Sixteen-hour overnight sputa collections were made for the 2 days before and for 5 days of monotherapy. Bactericidal activity was estimated by the time taken to kill 50% of viable bacilli (vt50) and the fall in sputum viable count during the first 2 days designated as the early bactericidal activity (EBA). The mean vt50 of moxifloxacin was 0.88 days (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.43-1.33 days) and the mean EBA was 0.53 (95% CI 0.28-0.79). For the isoniazid group, the mean vt50 was 0.46 days (95% CI, 0.31-0.61 days) and the mean EBA was 0.77 (95% CI, 0.54-1.00). For rifampin, the mean vt50 was 0.71 days (95% CI, 0.48-0.95 days) and the mean EBA was 0.28 (95% CI, 0.15-0.41). Using the EBA method, isoniazid was significantly more active than rifampin (p < 0.01) but not moxifloxacin. Using the vt50 method, isoniazid was more active than both rifampin and moxifloxacin (p = 0.03). Moxifloxacin has an activity similar to rifampin in human subjects with pulmonary tuberculosis, suggesting that it should undergo further assessment as part of a short course regimen for the treatment of drug-susceptible tuberculosis.
    American Journal of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine 12/2003; 168(11):1342-5. · 11.08 Impact Factor
  • Article: A multicentre comparison of a novel surrogate marker for determining the specific potency of anti-tuberculosis drugs.
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    ABSTRACT: A model for evaluating the potency of a new anti-tuberculosis drug or a drug combination, based on a decline in the number of viable tubercle bacilli in patient's sputum during 5 days mono-therapy has been reported. One popular measure is based on the analysis of the decline in bacterial counts during the first 48 h of therapy and has been called early bactericidal activity (EBA). Such analyses could detect EBA for only a few drugs and were subject to variations in results obtained in different sites. To address these problems we applied a reiterative exponential decay model to evaluate the data on bacterial counts during 5 days of mono-therapy. The validity of this approach was tested using data from three previously published studies. For patients treated with isoniazid 300 mg daily, the values for the time taken to reduce the viable count by 50% (vt50) measured in days were, from a Kenyan study 0.58 days S.E.M. 0.18, from a Tanzanian study 0.41 days S.E.M. 0.04, and from a United States study 0.55 days s.e.m. 0.12. These differences were not statistically significant (P = 0.77 Kruskal-Wallis non-parametric ANOVA). Mean values of vt50 for all of the major anti-tuberculosis agents showed that there was an overlapping spectrum of activity from isoniazid 300 mg (vt50 0.58 days) to para-amino-salicylic acid (vt50 2.9 days) The variation between column means was greater than could be expected by chance (P = 0.0002 Kruskal-Wallis non-parametric ANOVA). From this, we conclude that the reiterative exponential decay model permits comparison between the data obtained in different centres and would allow the activity of a new drug to be compared with that of the currently available agents.
    Journal of Antimicrobial Chemotherapy 10/2003; 52(3):473-6. · 5.07 Impact Factor

Institutions

  • 2010
    • Imperial College London
      • Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology
      London, ENG, United Kingdom
  • 2007–2010
    • London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
      • Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health
      London, ENG, United Kingdom
  • 2009
    • National Institute for Medical Research (NIMR)
      Dar es Salaam, Dar es Salaam Region, Tanzania
  • 2006
    • Kilimanjaro Christian Medical College
      Moshi, Kilimanjaro Region, Tanzania
  • 2003
    • University College London
      London, ENG, United Kingdom