Publications (12)46.29 Total impact
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Article: Cost-effectiveness of medical interventions to prevent cardiovascular disease in a sub-Saharan African country--the case of Tanzania.
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ABSTRACT: There is a high and rising prevalence of cardiovascular risk in sub-Saharan Africa, a development typical for countries in epidemiological transition. Contrary to recommendations in treatment guidelines, medical interventions to prevent cardiovascular disease are implemented only on a limited scale in these settings. There is a widespread concern that such treatment is not cost-effective compared to alternative health interventions. The main objectives of this article are therefore to calculate costs-, effects and cost-effectiveness of fourteen medical interventions of primary prevention of cardiovascular disease in Tanzania, including Acetylsalicylic acid, a diuretic drug (Hydrochlorothiazide), a beta-blocker (Atenolol), a calcium channel blocker (Nifedepine), a statin (Lovastatin) and various combinations of these. Effect sizes were derived from systematic reviews or meta-analyses, and calculated as Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs). Data on drug costs were calibrated to a Tanzanian setting. Other recurrent and capital costs were derived from previous studies and reviewed by local experts. Expected lifetime costs and health outcomes were calculated using a life-cycle model. Probabilistic cost-effectiveness analysis was performed using Monte Carlo simulation, and results presented as cost-effectiveness acceptability curves and frontiers. The potential impacts of uncertainty in value laden single parameters were explored in one-way sensitivity analyses. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratios for the fourteen interventions and four different levels of risk (totally 56 alternative interventions) ranged from about USD 85 per DALY to about USD 4589 per DALY saved. Hydrochlorothiazide as monotherapy is the drug yielding the most favorable cost-effectiveness ratio, although not significantly lower than when it is combined in duo-therapy with Aspirin or a beta-blocker, in triple-therapy with Aspirin and a beta-blocker, or than Aspirin given as mono-therapy. Preventive cardiology is not cost-effective for any patient group in this setting until willingness to pay exceeds USD 85 per DALY. At this level of willingness to pay, the optimal intervention is Hydrochlorothiazide to patients with very high cardiovascular risk. As willingness to pay for health increase further, it becomes optimal to provide this treatment also to patients with lower cardiovascular risk, and to substitute to more sophisticated interventions.Cost Effectiveness and Resource Allocation 02/2007; 5:3. · 0.87 Impact Factor -
Article: Estimating cause-specific mortality from community- and facility-based data sources in the United Republic of Tanzania: options and implications for mortality burden estimates.
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ABSTRACT: To compare mortality burden estimates based on direct measurement of levels and causes in communities with indirect estimates based on combining health facility cause-specific mortality structures with community measurement of mortality levels. Data from sentinel vital registration (SVR) with verbal autopsy (VA) were used to determine the cause-specific mortality burden at the community level in two areas of the United Republic of Tanzania. Proportional cause-specific mortality structures from health facilities were applied to counts of deaths obtained by SVR to produce modelled estimates. The burden was expressed in years of life lost. A total of 2884 deaths were recorded from health facilities and 2167 recorded from SVR/VAs. In the perinatal and neonatal age group cause-specific mortality rates were dominated by perinatal conditions and stillbirths in both the community and the facility data. The modelled estimates for chronic causes were very similar to those from SVR/VA. Acute febrile illnesses were coded more specifically in the facility data than in the VA. Injuries were more prevalent in the SVR/VA data than in that from the facilities. In this setting, improved International classification of diseases and health related problems, tenth revision (ICD-10) coding practices and applying facility-based cause structures to counts of deaths from communities, derived from SVR, appears to produce reasonable estimates of the cause-specific mortality burden in those aged 5 years and older determined directly from VA. For the perinatal and neonatal age group, VA appears to be required. Use of this approach in a nationally representative sample of facilities may produce reliable national estimates of the cause-specific mortality burden for leading causes of death in adults.Bulletin of the World Health Organisation 01/2007; 84(12):940-8. · 4.64 Impact Factor -
Article: Cost-effectiveness of medical interventions to prevent cardiovascular disease in a sub-Saharan African country – the case of Tanzania
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ABSTRACT: Abstract Background There is a high and rising prevalence of cardiovascular risk in sub-Saharan Africa, a development typical for countries in epidemiological transition. Contrary to recommendations in treatment guidelines, medical interventions to prevent cardiovascular disease are implemented only on a limited scale in these settings. There is a widespread concern that such treatment is not cost-effective compared to alternative health interventions. The main objectives of this article are therefore to calculate costs-, effects and cost-effectiveness of fourteen medical interventions of primary prevention of cardiovascular disease in Tanzania, including Acetylsalicylic acid, a diuretic drug (Hydrochlorothiazide), a β-blocker (Atenolol), a calcium channel blocker (Nifedepine), a statin (Lovastatin) and various combinations of these. Methods Effect sizes were derived from systematic reviews or meta-analyses, and calculated as Disability Adjusted Life Years (DALYs). Data on drug costs were calibrated to a Tanzanian setting. Other recurrent and capital costs were derived from previous studies and reviewed by local experts. Expected lifetime costs and health outcomes were calculated using a life-cycle model. Probabilistic cost-effectiveness analysis was performed using Monte Carlo simulation, and results presented as cost-effectiveness acceptability curves and frontiers. The potential impacts of uncertainty in value laden single parameters were explored in one-way sensitivity analyses. Results The incremental cost-effectiveness ratios for the fourteen interventions and four different levels of risk (totally 56 alternative interventions) ranged from about USD 85 per DALY to about USD 4589 per DALY saved. Hydrochlorothiazide as monotherapy is the drug yielding the most favorable cost-effectiveness ratio, although not significantly lower than when it is combined in duo-therapy with Aspirin or a β-blocker, in triple-therapy with Aspirin and a β-blocker, or than Aspirin given as mono-therapy. Conclusion Preventive cardiology is not cost-effective for any patient group in this setting until willingness to pay exceeds USD 85 per DALY. At this level of willingness to pay, the optimal intervention is Hydrochlorothiazide to patients with very high cardiovascular risk. As willingness to pay for health increase further, it becomes optimal to provide this treatment also to patients with lower cardiovascular risk, and to substitute to more sophisticated interventions.Cost Effectiveness and Resource Allocation. 01/2007; -
Article: Core verbal autopsy procedures with comparative validation results from two countries.
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ABSTRACT: Cause-specific mortality statistics remain scarce for the majority of low-income countries, where the highest disease burdens are experienced. Neither facility-based information systems nor vital registration provide adequate or representative data. The expansion of sample vital registration with verbal autopsy procedures represents the most promising interim solution for this problem. The development and validation of core verbal autopsy forms and suitable coding and tabulation procedures are an essential first step to extending the benefits of this method. Core forms for peri- and neonatal, child, and adult deaths were developed and revised over 12 y through a project of the Tanzanian Ministry of Health and were applied to over 50,000 deaths. The contents of the core forms draw upon and are generally comparable with previously proposed verbal autopsy procedures. The core forms and coding procedures based on the International Statistical Classification of Diseases (ICD) were further adapted for use in China. These forms, the ICD tabulation list, the summary validation protocol, and the summary validation results from Tanzania and China are presented here. The procedures are capable of providing reasonable mortality estimates as adjudged against stated performance criteria for several common causes of death in two countries with radically different cause structures of mortality. However, the specific causes for which the procedures perform well varied between the two settings because of differences in the underlying prevalence of the main causes of death. These differences serve to emphasize the need to undertake validation studies of verbal autopsy procedures when they are applied in new epidemiological settings.PLoS Medicine 09/2006; 3(8):e268. · 16.27 Impact Factor -
Article: Validity of verbal autopsy procedures for determining cause of death in Tanzania.
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ABSTRACT: To validate verbal autopsy (VA) procedures for use in sample vital registration. Verbal autopsy is an important method for deriving cause-specific mortality estimates where disease burdens are greatest and routine cause-specific mortality data do not exist. Verbal autopsies and medical records (MR) were collected for 3123 deaths in the perinatal/neonatal period, post-neonatal <5 age group, and for ages of 5 years and over in Tanzania. Causes of death were assigned by physician panels using the International Classification of Disease, revision 10. Validity was measured by: cause-specific mortality fractions (CSMF); sensitivity; specificity and positive predictive value. Medical record diagnoses were scored for degree of uncertainty, and sensitivity and specificity adjusted. Criteria for evaluating VA performance in generating true proportional mortality were applied. Verbal autopsy produced accurate CSMFs for nine causes in different age groups: birth asphyxia; intrauterine complications; pneumonia; HIV/AIDS; malaria (adults); tuberculosis; cerebrovascular diseases; injuries and direct maternal causes. Results for 20 other causes approached the threshold for good performance. Verbal autopsy reliably estimated CSMFs for diseases of public health importance in all age groups. Further validation is needed to assess reasons for lack of positive results for some conditions.Tropical Medicine & International Health 06/2006; 11(5):681-96. · 2.80 Impact Factor -
Article: Perceived susceptibility to and perceived causes of road traffic injuries in an urban and rural area of Tanzania.
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ABSTRACT: The aim of the study was to investigate social and behavioral correlates of perceived vulnerability to traffic injuries in an urban and rural setting in Tanzania. In 2002, a sample of 494 adults aged 15 years and above participated in household interviews in Dar es Salaam (urban) and Hai District (rural). The study was part of a population-based survey that collected self-report data on non-fatal injuries. In Dar es Salaam 75 and 82% of males and females, respectively, perceived it as likely that they would experience a traffic injury in general. The corresponding figures in Hai were 63 and 64%. Men rated their road traffic vulnerability similarly to women (OR=0.8, 95% CI 0.5-1.3). Factors associated with high perceived vulnerability as a pedestrian or being injured by a bicycle were amount of road safety information received from health workers and friends, having caused a car to swerve and having crossed a road while talking. Respondents perceived driver recklessness and driver drunkenness as the leading causes of traffic injuries in both areas. Differences were found between the urban and rural setting with respect to perceived risk for traffic injury. The implications of these findings in the context of traffic injury prevention are discussed.Accident Analysis & Prevention 02/2006; 38(1):54-62. · 1.87 Impact Factor -
Chapter: Causes of Death
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ABSTRACT: Consistent estimates of cause-specific mortality are essential for understanding the overall epidemiological profile of disease in a population. The principal data source for these estimates is civil registration systems. Adequately functioning systems that produce statistics on causes of death on a regular basis exist in only about one-third of all countries of the world (Lopez et al. 2002). In Sub-Saharan Africa, very little information has been available on cause-specific mortality, let alone data from civil registration systems, as described in the previous edition of this book (Feachem and Jamison 1991). Estimates at that time were derived largely from independent disease-specific epidemiological studies and were not examined within the context of an overall demographic "envelope" of mortality, as is required to ensure that claims about causes of death are not exaggerated. Over the past decade, much progress has been made in the collection of mortality statistics from a wide array of sources. These include data from previously existing sources that were uncovered during a systematic search, as well as data from new data collection ventures that were established to fill these data gaps. Although we are still a long way from having satisfactory empirical data that can be directly used to derive national and regional cause-specific mortality estimates, the expansion in available data suggests that estimates of causes of death can now be made with somewhat greater confidence. The absence of complete vital registration data in virtually all countries of the region nonetheless means that we need to rely on epidemiological research and demographic surveillance to generate model-based estimates of deaths by cause. Such an estimation process is complex and involves two stages. First, a demographic estimate of overall mortality by age and sex is required. Second, a cause-specific mortality structure is fitted to this estimate. Many assumptions are required, and an attempt has been made here to delineate these clearly, so that they can be kept in mind when interpreting the results.01/2006; , ISBN: 0821363972 -
Article: Sample registration of vital events with verbal autopsy: a renewed commitment to measuring and monitoring vital statistics.
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ABSTRACT: Registration of births, recording deaths by age, sex and cause, and calculating mortality levels and differentials are fundamental to evidence-based health policy, monitoring and evaluation. Yet few of the countries with the greatest need for these data have functioning systems to produce them despite legislation providing for the establishment and maintenance of vital registration. Sample vital registration (SVR), when applied in conjunction with validated verbal autopsy procedures and implemented in a nationally representative sample of population clusters represents an affordable, cost-effective, and sustainable short- and medium-term solution to this problem. SVR complements other information sources by producing age-, sex-, and cause-specific mortality data that are more complete and continuous than those currently available. The tools and methods employed in an SVR system, however, are imperfect and require rigorous validation and continuous quality assurance; sampling strategies for SVR are also still evolving. Nonetheless, interest in establishing SVR is rapidly growing in Africa and Asia. Better systems for reporting and recording data on vital events will be sustainable only if developed hand-in-hand with existing health information strategies at the national and district levels; governance structures; and agendas for social research and development monitoring. If the global community wishes to have mortality measurements 5 or 10 years hence, the foundation stones of SVR must be laid today.Bulletin of the World Health Organisation 09/2005; 83(8):611-7. · 4.64 Impact Factor -
Article: Cost and results of information systems for health and poverty indicators in the United Republic of Tanzania.
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ABSTRACT: To examine the costs of complementary information generation activities in a resource-constrained setting and compare the costs and outputs of information subsystems that generate the statistics on poverty, health and survival required for monitoring, evaluation and reporting on health programmes in the United Republic of Tanzania. Nine systems used by four government agencies or ministries were assessed. Costs were calculated from budgets and expenditure data made available by information system managers. System coverage, quality assurance and information production were reviewed using questionnaires and interviews. Information production was characterized in terms of 38 key sociodemographic indicators required for national programme monitoring. In 2002-03 approximately US$ 0.53 was spent per Tanzanian citizen on the nine information subsystems that generated information on 37 of the 38 selected indicators. The census and reporting system for routine health service statistics had the largest participating populations and highest total costs. Nationally representative household surveys and demographic surveillance systems (which are not based on nationally representative samples) produced more than half the indicators and used the most rigorous quality assurance. Five systems produced fewer than 13 indicators and had comparatively high costs per participant. Policy-makers and programme planners should be aware of the many trade-offs with respect to system costs, coverage, production, representativeness and quality control when making investment choices for monitoring and evaluation. In future, formal cost-effectiveness studies of complementary information systems would help guide investments in the monitoring, evaluation and planning needed to demonstrate the impact of poverty-reduction and health programmes.Bulletin of the World Health Organisation 09/2005; 83(8):569-77. · 4.64 Impact Factor -
Article: Injury morbidity in an urban and a rural area in Tanzania: an epidemiological survey.
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ABSTRACT: Injuries are becoming a major health problem in developing countries. Few population based studies have been carried out in African countries. We examined the pattern of nonfatal injuries and associated risk factors in an urban and rural setting of Tanzania. A population-based household survey was conducted in 2002. Participants were selected by cluster sampling. A total of 8,188 urban and 7,035 rural residents of all ages participated in the survey. All injuries reported among all household members in the year preceding the interview and resulting in one or more days of restricted activity were included in the analysis. A total of 206 (2.5%) and 303 (4.3%) persons reported to have been injured in the urban and rural area respectively. Although the overall incidence was higher in the rural area, the incidence of major injuries (> or = 30 disability days) was similar in both areas. Males were at a higher risk of having an injury than females. Rural residents were more likely to experience injuries due to falls (OR = 1.6; 95% CI = 1.1 - 2.3) and cuts (OR = 4.3; 95% CI = 3.0 - 6.2) but had a lower risk of transport injuries. The most common causes of injury in the urban area were transport injuries and falls. In the rural area, cuts and stabs, of which two thirds were related to agriculture, formed the most common cause. Age was an important risk factor for certain types of injuries. Poverty levels were not significantly associated with experiencing a nonfatal injury. The patterns of injury differ in urban and rural areas partly as a reflection of livelihoods and infrastructure. Rural residents are at a higher overall injury risk than urban residents. This may be important in the development of injury prevention strategies.BMC Public Health 01/2005; 5:11. · 2.00 Impact Factor -
Article: Is it time to reassess the categorization of disease burdens in low-income countries?
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ABSTRACT: The classification of disease burdens is an important topic that receives little attention or debate. One common classification scheme, the broad cause grouping, is based on etiology and health transition theory and is mainly concerned with distinguishing communicable from noncommunicable diseases. This may be of limited utility to policymakers and planners. We propose a broad care needs framework to complement the broad cause grouping. This alternative scheme may be of equal or greater value to planners. We apply these schemes to disability-adjusted life year estimates for 2000 and to mortality data from Tanzania. The results suggest that a broad care needs approach could shift the priorities of health planners and policymakers and deserves further evaluation.American Journal of Public Health 04/2004; 94(3):384-8. · 3.93 Impact Factor -
Article: Community-based monitoring of safe motherhood in the United Republic of Tanzania.
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ABSTRACT: To examine the progress made towards the Safe Motherhood Initiative goals in three areas of the United Republic of Tanzania during the 1990s. Maternal mortality in the United Republic of Tanzania was monitored by sentinel demographic surveillance of more than 77,000 women of reproductive age, and by prospective monitoring of mortality in the following locations; an urban site; a wealthier rural district; and a poor rural district. The observation period for the rural districts was 1992-99 and 1993-99 for the urban site. During the period of observation, the proportion of deaths of women of reproductive age (15-49 years) due to maternal causes (PMDF) compared with all causes was between 0.063 and 0.095. Maternal mortality ratios (MMRatios) were 591-1099 and maternal mortality rates (MMRates; maternal deaths per 100,000 women aged 15-49 years) were 43.1-123.0. MMRatios in surveillance areas were substantially higher than estimates from official, facility-based statistics. In all areas, the MMRates in 1999 were substantially lower than at the start of surveillance (1992 for rural districts, 1993 for the urban area), although trends during the period were statistically significant at the 90% level only in the urban site. At the community level, an additional year of education for household heads was associated with a 62% lower maternal death rate, after controlling for community-level variables such as the proportion of home births and occupational class. Educational level was a major predictor of declining MMRates. Even though rates may be decreasing, they remained high in the study areas. The use of sentinel registration areas may be a cost-effective and accurate way for developing countries to monitor mortality indicators and causes, including for maternal mortality.Bulletin of the World Health Organisation 02/2003; 81(2):87-94. · 4.64 Impact Factor
Top co-authors
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2005–2007
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University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill
Chapel Hill, NC, USA
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2006
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American University Washington D.C.
Washington, D. C., DC, USA
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