L. T. Molina

Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, MA, USA

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Publications (87)18.33 Total impact

  • Article: Determination of particulate lead during MILAGRO/MCMA-2006 using Aerosol Mass Spectrometry
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    ABSTRACT: We report the first measurements of particulate lead (Pb) from Aerodyne Aerosol Mass Spectrometers, which were deployed in and around Mexico City during the Megacity Initiative: Local and Global Research Observations (MILAGRO)/Mexico City Metropolitan Area 2006 (MCMA-2006) field campaigns. The high resolution mass spectrometer of one of the AMS instruments (HR-AMS) and the measured isotopic ratios unequivocally prove the detection of Pb in ambient particles. A substantial fraction of the lead evaporated slowly from the vaporizer of the instruments, which is indicative of species with low volatility at 600 °C. A model was developed in order to estimate the ambient particulate Pb entering the AMS from the signals in the "open" and the "closed" (or "background") mass spectrum modes of the AMS. The model suggests the presence of at least two lead fractions with ~25% of the Pb signal exhibiting rapid evaporation (1/e decay constant, τ3)2 particles, we estimated that the Pb ionization efficiency relative to nitrate (RIEPb) is 0.5. Comparison of time series of AMS Pb with other measurements carried out at T0 (using Proton Induced X-ray Emission (PIXE), Inductively-Coupled Plasma Mass Spectrometry (ICP-MS) and single-particle counts from an Aerosol Time-of-Fight Mass Spectrometer (ATOFMS)) shows similar levels (for PIXE and ICP-MS) and substantial correlation. During part of the campaign, sampling at T0 was alternated every 10 min with an Aerosol Concentrator, which enabled the detection of signals for PbCl+ and PbS+ ions. PbS+ displays the signature of a slowly evaporating species, while PbCl+ appears to arise only from fast evaporation, which is likely due to the higher vapor pressure of the compounds generating PbCl+. This is consistent with the evaporation model results. Levels of particulate Pb measured at T0 were similar to previous studies in Mexico City. Pb shows a diurnal cycle with a maximum in the early morning, which is typical of primary urban pollutants. Pb shows correlation with Zn, consistent with previous studies, while the sources of Pb appear to be at least partially disjoint from those of particulate chloride. Back trajectory analysis of the T0 Pb data suggests the presence of sources inside the urban area SSW and N of T0, with different chemical forms of Pb being associated with different source locations. High signals due to particulate lead were also detected in the PEMEX site; again, no correlation between Pb and chloride plumes was observed, suggesting mostly different sources for both species.
    Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions. 01/2010;
  • Article: Ozone predictabilities due to meteorological uncertainties in Mexico City basin using ensemble forecasts
    Bei N, Lei W, Zavala M, L. T. Molina
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    ABSTRACT: The purpose of the present study is to investigate the sensitivity of ozone concentration ([O3]) predictions in Mexico City to meteorological initial uncertainties and planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterization schemes using state-of-the-art meteorological and photochemical prediction models through ensemble forecasts. The simulated periods (3, 9, 15, and 29 March 2006), represent four typical meteorological episodes ("South-Venting", "O3-North", "O3-South" and "Convection-North", respectively) in the Mexico City basin during the MCMA-2006/MILAGRO campaign. Our results demonstrate that uncertainties in meteorological initial conditions have significant impacts on O3 predictions, including the peak time [O3], as well as the horizontal and vertical [O3] distributions, and temporal variations. The ensemble spread of the simulated peak [O3] averaged over the city's ambient monitoring sites can reach up to 10 ppb. The magnitude of the ensemble spreads varies with different PBL schemes and meteorological episodes. The uncertainties in O3 predictions caused by PBL schemes mainly come from their ability to represent the mixing layer height, but overall, these uncertainties are smaller than those from uncertainties in meteorological initial conditions.
    Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions. 01/2010;
  • Article: Investigation of the correlation between odd oxygen and secondary organic aerosol in Mexico City and Houston
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    ABSTRACT: Many recent models underpredict secondary organic aerosol (SOA) particulate matter (PM) concentrations in polluted regions, indicating serious deficiencies in the models' chemical mechanisms and/or missing SOA precursors. Since tropospheric photochemical ozone production is much better understood, we investigate the correlation of odd-oxygen ([Ox]≡[O3]+[NO2]) and the oxygenated component of organic aerosol (OOA), which is interpreted as a surrogate for SOA. OOA and Ox measured in Mexico City in 2006 and Houston in 2000 were well correlated in air masses where both species were formed on similar timescales (less than 8 h) and not well correlated when their formation timescales or location differed greatly. When correlated, the ratio of these two species ranged from 30 μg m−3 ppm−1 (STP) in Houston during time periods affected by large petrochemical plant emissions to as high as 160 μg m−3 ppm−1 in Mexico City, where typical values were near 120 μg m−3 ppm−1. On several days in Mexico City, the [OOA]/[Ox] ratio decreased by a factor of ~2 between 08:00 and 13:00 LT. This decrease is only partially attributable to evaporation of the least oxidized and most volatile components of OOA; differences in the diurnal emission trends and timescales for photochemical processing of SOA precursors compared to ozone precursors also likely contribute to the observed decrease. The extent of OOA oxidation increased with photochemical aging. Calculations of the ratio of the SOA formation rate to the Ox production rate using ambient VOC measurements and traditional laboratory SOA yields are lower than the observed [OOA]/[Ox] ratios by factors of 5 to 15, consistent with several other models' underestimates of SOA. Calculations of this ratio using emission factors for organic compounds from gasoline and diesel exhaust do not reproduce the observed ratio. Although not succesful in reproducing the atmospheric observations presented, modeling P(SOA)/P(Ox) can serve as a useful test of photochemical models using improved formulation mechanisms for SOA.
    Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions. 01/2010;
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    Article: An overview of the MILAGRO 2006 campaign: Mexico City emissions and their transport and transformation
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    ABSTRACT: MILAGRO (Megacity Initiative: Local And Global Research Observations) is an international collaborative project to examine the behavior and the export of atmospheric emissions from a megacity. The Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA) – one of the world's largest megacities and North America's most populous city – was selected as the case study to characterize the sources, concentrations, transport, and transformation processes of the pollutants emitted to the MCMA atmosphere and to evaluate the regional and global impacts of these emissions. The findings of this study are relevant to the evolution and impacts of pollution from many other megacities. The measurement phase consisted of a month-long series of carefully coordinated observations of the chemistry and physics of the atmosphere in and near Mexico City during March 2006, using a wide range of instruments at ground sites, on aircraft and satellites, and enlisting over 450 scientists from 150 institutions in 30 countries. Three ground supersites were set up to examine the evolution of the primary emitted gases and fine particles. Additional platforms in or near Mexico City included mobile vans containing scientific laboratories and mobile and stationary upward-looking lidars. Seven instrumented research aircraft provided information about the atmosphere over a large region and at various altitudes. Satellite-based instruments peered down into the atmosphere, providing even larger geographical coverage. The overall campaign was complemented by meteorological forecasting and numerical simulations, satellite observations and surface networks. Together, these research observations have provided the most comprehensive characterization of the MCMA's urban and regional atmospheric composition that will take years to analyze and evaluate fully. In this paper we review over 120 papers resulting from the MILAGRO/INTEX-B Campaign that have been published or submitted, as well as relevant papers from the earlier MCMA-2003 campaign, with the aim of providing a road map for the scientific community interested in understanding the emissions from a megacity such as the MCMA and their impacts on air quality and climate. This paper describes the measurements performed during MILAGRO and the results obtained on MCMA's atmospheric meteorology and dynamics, emissions of gases and fine particles, sources and concentrations of volatile organic compounds, urban and regional photochemistry, ambient particulate matter, aerosol radiative properties, urban plume characterization, and health studies. A summary of key findings from the field study is presented.
    Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions. 01/2010;
  • Article: Ozone response to emission changes: a modeling study during the MCMA-2006/MILAGRO Campaign
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    ABSTRACT: The sensitivity of ozone production to precursor emissions was investigated under five different meteorological conditions in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA) during the MCMA-2006/MILAGRO field campaign using the gridded photochemical model CAMx driven by observation-nudged WRF meteorology. Precursor emissions were constrained by the comprehensive data from the field campaign and the routine ambient air quality monitoring network. Simulated plume mixing and transport were examined by comparing with measurements from the G-1 aircraft during the campaign. The observed concentrations of ozone precursors and ozone were reasonably well reproduced by the model. The effects of reducing precursor emissions on urban ozone production were performed for three representative emission control scenarios. A 50% reduction in VOC emissions led to 7 to 22 ppb decrease in daily maximum ozone concentrations, while a 50% reduction in NOx emissions leads to 4 to 21 ppb increase, and 50% reductions in both NOx and VOC emission decrease the daily maximum ozone concentrations up to 10 ppb. These results along with a chemical indicator analysis using the chemical production ratios of H2O2 to HNO3 demonstrate that the MCMA urban core region is VOC-limited for all meteorological episodes, which is consistent with the results from MCMA-2003 field campaign; however the degree of the VOC-sensitivity is higher during MCMA-2006 due to lower VOCs, lower VOC reactivity and moderately higher NOx emissions. Ozone formation in the surrounding mountain/rural area is mostly NOx-limited, but can be VOC-limited, and the range of the NOx-limited or VOC-limited areas depends on meteorology.
    Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics. 01/2010;
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    Article: Mexico city aerosol analysis during MILAGRO using high resolution aerosol mass spectrometry at the urban supersite (T0) – Part 2: Analysis of the biomass burning contribution and the non-fossil carbon fraction
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    ABSTRACT: Submicron aerosol was analyzed during the MILAGRO field campaign in March 2006 at the T0 urban supersite in Mexico City with a High-Resolution Aerosol Mass Spectrometer (AMS) and complementary instrumentation. Positive Matrix Factorization (PMF) of high resolution AMS spectra identified a biomass burning organic aerosol (BBOA) component, which includes several large plumes that appear to be from forest fires within the region. Here, we show that the AMS BBOA concentration at T0 correlates with fire counts in the vicinity of Mexico City and that most of the BBOA variability is captured when the FLEXPART model is used for the dispersion of fire emissions as estimated from satellite fire counts. The resulting FLEXPART fire impact factor (FIF) correlates well with the observed BBOA, acetonitrile (CH3CN), levoglucosan, and potassium, indicating that wildfires in the region surrounding Mexico City are the dominant source of BBOA at T0 during MILAGRO. The impact of distant BB sources such as the Yucatan is small during this period. All fire tracers are correlated, with BBOA and levoglucosan showing little background, acetonitrile having a well-known tropospheric background of ~100–150 pptv, and PM2.5 potassium having a background of ~160 ng m−3 (two-thirds of its average concentration), which does not appear to be related to BB sources. We define two high fire periods based on satellite fire counts and FLEXPART-predicted FIFs. We then compare these periods with a low fire period when the impact of regional fires is about a factor of 5 smaller. Fire tracers are very elevated in the high fire periods whereas tracers of urban pollution do not change between these periods. Dust is also elevated during the high BB period but this appears to be coincidental due to the drier conditions and not driven by direct dust emission from the fires. The AMS oxygenated organic aerosol (OA) factor (OOA, mostly secondary OA or SOA) does not show an increase during the fire periods or a correlation with fire counts, FLEXPART-predicted FIFs or fire tracers, indicating that it is dominated by urban and/or regional sources and not by the fires near the MCMA. A new 14C aerosol dataset is presented. Both this new and a previously published dataset of 14C analysis suggest a similar BBOA contribution as the AMS and chemical mass balance (CMB), resulting in 13% higher non-fossil carbon during the high vs. low regional fire periods. The new dataset has ~15% more fossil carbon on average than the previously published one, and possible reasons for this discrepancy are discussed. During the low regional fire period, 38% of organic carbon (OC) and 28% total carbon (TC) are from non-fossil sources, suggesting the importance of urban and regional non-fossil carbon sources other than the fires, such as food cooking and regional biogenic SOA. The ambient BBOA/ΔCH3CN ratio is much higher in the afternoon when the wildfires are most intense than during the rest of the day. Also, there are large differences in the contributions of the different OA components to the surface concentrations vs. the integrated column amounts. Both facts may explain some apparent disagreements between BB impacts estimated from afternoon aircraft flights vs. those from 24-h ground measurements. We show that by properly accounting for the non-BB sources of K, all of the BB PM estimates from MILAGRO can be reconciled. Overall, the fires from the region near the MCMA are estimated to contribute 15–23% of the OA and 7–9% of the fine PM at T0 during MILAGRO, and 2–3% of the fine PM as an annual average. The 2006 MCMA emissions inventory contains a substantially lower impact of the forest fire emissions, although a fraction of these emissions occur just outside of the MCMA inventory area.
    Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics. 01/2010;
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    Article: Determination of particulate lead using aerosol mass spectrometry: MILAGRO/MCMA-2006 observations
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    ABSTRACT: We report the first measurements of particulate lead (Pb) from Aerodyne Aerosol Mass Spectrometers, which were deployed in and around Mexico City during the Megacity Initiative: Local and Global Research Observations (MILAGRO)/Mexico City Metropolitan Area 2006 (MCMA-2006) field campaigns. The high resolution mass spectrometer of one of the AMS instruments (HR-AMS) and the measured isotopic ratios unequivocally prove the detection of Pb in ambient particles. A substantial fraction of the lead evaporated slowly from the vaporizer of the instruments, which is indicative of species with low volatility at 600 °C. A model was developed in order to estimate the ambient particulate Pb entering the AMS from the signals in the "open" and the "closed" (or "background") mass spectrum modes of the AMS. The model suggests the presence of at least two lead fractions with ~25% of the Pb signal exhibiting rapid evaporation (1/e decay constant, τ3)2 particles, we estimated that the Pb ionization efficiency relative to nitrate (RIEPb) is 0.5. Comparison of time series of AMS Pb with other measurements carried out at the T0 supersite during MILAGRO (using Proton Induced X-ray Emission (PIXE), Inductively-Coupled Plasma Mass Spectrometry (ICP-MS) and single-particle counts from an Aerosol Time-of-Fight Mass Spectrometer (ATOFMS)) shows similar levels (for PIXE and ICP-MS) and substantial correlation. During part of the campaign, sampling at T0 was alternated every 10 min with an Aerosol Concentrator, which enabled the detection of signals for PbCl+ and PbS+ ions. PbS+ displays the signature of a slowly evaporating species, while PbCl+ appears to arise only from fast evaporation, which is likely due to the higher vapor pressure of the compounds generating PbCl+. This is consistent with the evaporation model results. Levels of particulate Pb measured at T0 were similar to previous studies in Mexico City. Pb shows a diurnal cycle with a maximum in the early morning, which is typical of primary urban pollutants. Pb shows correlation with Zn, consistent with previous studies, while the sources of Pb appear to be at least partially disjoint from those of particulate chloride. Back trajectory analysis of the T0 Pb data suggests the presence of sources inside the urban area SSW and N of T0, with different chemical forms of Pb being associated with different source locations. High signals due to particulate lead were also detected in the PEMEX site; again, no correlation between Pb and chloride plumes was observed, suggesting mostly different sources for both species.
    Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics. 01/2010;
  • Article: Ozone predictabilities due to meteorological uncertainties in the Mexico City basin using ensemble forecasts
    Bei N, Lei W, Zavala M, L. T. Molina
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    ABSTRACT: The purpose of the present study is to investigate the sensitivity of ozone (O3) predictions in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA) to meteorological initial uncertainties and planetary boundary layer (PBL) parameterization schemes using state-of-the-art meteorological and photochemical prediction models through ensemble forecasts. The simulated periods (3, 9, 15 and 29 March 2006) represent four typical meteorological episodes ("South-Venting", "O3-North", "O3-South" and "Convection-North", respectively) in the Mexico City basin during the MCMA-2006/MILAGRO campaign. Our results demonstrate that the uncertainties in meteorological initial conditions have significant impacts on O3 predictions, including peak time O3 concentrations ([O3]), horizontal and vertical O3 distributions, and temporal variations. The ensemble spread of the simulated peak [O3] averaged over the city's ambient monitoring sites can reach up to 10 ppb. The increasing uncertainties in meteorological fields during peak O3 period contribute to the largest unpredictability in O3 simulations, while the impacts of wind speeds and PBL height on [O3] are more straightforward and important. The magnitude of the ensemble spreads varies with different PBL schemes and meteorological episodes. The uncertainties in O3 predictions caused by PBL schemes mainly come from their ability to represent the mixing layer height; but overall, these uncertainties are smaller than those from the uncertainties in meteorological initial conditions.
    Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics. 01/2010;
  • Article: Oxidative capacity of the Mexico City atmosphere – Part 1: A radical source perspective
    Volkamer R, Sheehy P, L. T. Molina, M. J. Molina
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    ABSTRACT: A detailed analysis of OH, HO2 and RO2 radical sources is presented for the near field photochemical regime inside the Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA). During spring of 2003 (MCMA-2003 field campaign) an extensive set of measurements was collected to quantify time-resolved ROx (sum of OH, HO2, RO2) radical production rates from day- and nighttime radical sources. The Master Chemical Mechanism (MCMv3.1) was constrained by measurements of (1) concentration time-profiles of photosensitive radical precursors, i.e., nitrous acid (HONO), formaldehyde (HCHO), ozone (O3), glyoxal (CHOCHO), and other oxygenated volatile organic compounds (OVOCs); (2) respective photolysis-frequencies (J-values); (3) concentration time-profiles of alkanes, alkenes, and aromatic VOCs (103 compound are treated) and oxidants, i.e., OH- and NO3 radicals, O3; and (4) NO, NO2, meteorological and other parameters. The ROx production rate was calculated directly from these observations; the MCM was used to estimate further ROx production from unconstrained sources, and express overall ROx production as OH-equivalents (i.e., taking into account the propagation efficiencies of RO2 and HO2 radicals into OH radicals). Daytime radical production is found to be about 10–25 times higher than at night; it does not track the abundance of sunlight. 12-h average daytime contributions of individual sources are: Oxygenated VOC other than HCHO about 33%; HCHO and O3 photolysis each about 20%; O3/alkene reactions and HONO photolysis each about 12%, other sources 2* + water makes – if any – a very small contribution (~2%). The peak radical production of ~7.5 107 molec cm−3 s−1 is found already at 10:00 a.m., i.e., more than 2.5 h before solar noon. O3/alkene reactions are indirectly responsible for ~33% of these radicals. Our measurements and analysis comprise a database that enables testing of the representation of radical sources and radical chain reactions in photochemical models. Since the photochemical processing of pollutants in the MCMA is radical limited, our analysis identifies the drivers for ozone and SOA formation. We conclude that reductions in VOC emissions provide an efficient opportunity to reduce peak concentrations of these secondary pollutants, because (1) about 70% of radical production is linked to VOC precursors; (2) lowering the VOC/NOx ratio has the further benefit of reducing the radical re-cycling efficiency from radical chain reactions (chemical amplification of radical sources); (3) a positive feedback is identified: lowering the rate of radical production from organic precursors also reduces that from inorganic precursors, like ozone, as pollution export from the MCMA caps the amount of ozone that accumulates at a lower rate inside the MCMA. Continued VOC reductions will in the future result in decreasing peak concentrations of ozone and SOA in the MCMA.
    Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics. 01/2010;
  • Article: Aerosol plume transport and transformation in high spectral resolution lidar measurements and WRF-Flexpart simulations during the MILAGRO Field Campaign
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    ABSTRACT: The Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA) experiences high loadings of atmospheric aerosols from anthropogenic sources, biomass burning and wind-blown dust. This paper uses a combination of measurements and numerical simulations to identify different plumes affecting the basin and to characterize transformation inside the plumes. The airborne High Spectral Resolution Lidar measures extinction coefficients and extinction to backscatter ratio at 532 nm, and backscatter coefficients and depolarization ratios at 532 and 1064 nm. These can be used to identify aerosol types. The measurement curtains are compared with particle trajectory simulations using WRF-Flexpart for different source groups. The good correspondence between measurements and simulations suggests that the aerosol transport is sufficiently well characterized by the models to estimate aerosol types and ages. Plumes in the basin undergo complex transport, and are frequently mixed together. Urban aerosols are readily identifiable by their low depolarization ratios and high lidar ratios, and dust by the opposite properties. Fresh biomass burning plumes have very low depolarization ratios which increase rapidly with age. This rapid transformation is consistent with the presence of atmospheric tar balls in the fresh plumes.
    Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions. 01/2010;
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    Article: Simulations of organic aerosol concentrations in Mexico City using the WRF-CHEM model during the MCMA-2006/MILAGRO campaign
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    ABSTRACT: Organic aerosol concentrations are simulated using the WRF-CHEM model in Mexico City during the period from 24 to 29 March in association with the MILAGRO-2006 campaign. Two approaches are employed to predict the variation and spatial distribution of the organic aerosol concentrations: (1) a traditional 2-product secondary organic aerosol (SOA) model with non-volatile primary organic aerosols (POA); (2) a non-traditional SOA model including the volatility basis-set modeling method in which primary organic components are assumed to be semi-volatile and photochemically reactive and are distributed in logarithmically spaced volatility bins. The MCMA 2006 official emission inventory is used in simulations and the POA emissions are modified and distributed by volatility based on dilution experiments for the non-traditional SOA model. The model results are compared to the Aerosol Mass Spectrometry (AMS) observations analyzed using the Positive Matrix Factorization (PMF) technique at an urban background site (T0) and a suburban background site (T1) in Mexico City. The traditional SOA model frequently underestimates the observed POA concentrations during rush hours and overestimates the observations in the rest of the time in the city. The model also substantially underestimates the observed SOA concentrations, particularly during daytime, and only produces 21% and 25% of the observed SOA mass in the suburban and urban area, respectively. The non-traditional SOA model performs well in simulating the POA variation, but still overestimates during daytime in the urban area. The SOA simulations are significantly improved in the non-traditional SOA model compared to the traditional SOA model and the SOA production is increased by more than 100% in the city. However, the underestimation during daytime is still salient in the urban area and the non-traditional model also fails to reproduce the high level of SOA concentrations in the suburban area. In the non-traditional SOA model, the aging process of primary organic components considerably decreases the OH levels in simulations and further impacts the SOA formation. If the aging process in the non-traditional model does not have feedback on the OH in the gas-phase chemistry, the SOA production is enhanced by more than 10% compared to the simulations with the OH feedback during daytime, and the gap between the simulations and observations in the urban area is around 3 μg m−3 or 20% on average during late morning and early afternoon, within the uncertainty from the AMS measurements and PMF analysis. In addition, glyoxal and methylglyoxal can contribute up to approximately 10% of the observed SOA mass in the urban area and 4% in the suburban area. Including the non-OH feedback and the contribution of glyoxal and methylglyoxal, the non-traditional SOA model can explain up to 83% of the observed SOA in the urban area, and the underestimation during late morning and early afternoon is reduced to 0.9 μg m−3 or 6% on average. Considering the uncertainties from measurements, emissions, meteorological conditions, aging of SOA from anthropogenic VOCs, and contributions from background transport, the non-traditional SOA model is capable of closing the gap in SOA mass between measurements and models.
    Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions. 01/2010;
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    Article: Impacts of HONO sources on the photochemistry in Mexico City during the MCMA-2006/MILAGO Campaign
    Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 01/2010; 10:6551-6567.
  • Article: Modeled and observed ozone sensitivity to mobile-source emissions in Mexico City
    Zavala M, Lei W, M. J. Molina, L. T. Molina
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    ABSTRACT: The emission characteristics of mobile sources in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA) have changed significantly over the past few decades in response to emission control policies, advancements in vehicle technologies and improvements in fuel quality, among others. Along with these changes, concurrent non-linear changes in photochemical levels and criteria pollutants have been observed, providing a unique opportunity to understand the effects of perturbations of mobile emission levels on the photochemistry in the region using observational and modeling approaches. The observed historical trends of ozone (O3), carbon monoxide (CO) and nitrogen oxides (NOx) suggest that ozone production in the MCMA has changed from a low to a high VOC-sensitive regime over a period of 20 years. Comparison of the historical emission trends of CO, NOx and hydrocarbons derived from mobile-source emission studies in the MCMA from 1991 to 2006 with the trends of the concentrations of CO, NOx, and the CO/NOx ratio during peak traffic hours also indicates that fuel-based fleet average emission factors have significantly decreased for CO and VOCs during this period whereas NOx emission factors do not show any strong trend, effectively reducing the ambient VOC/NOx ratio. This study presents the results of model analyses on the sensitivity of the observed ozone levels to the estimated historical changes in its precursors. The model sensitivity analyses used a well-validated base case simulation of a high pollution episode in the MCMA with the mathematical Decoupled Direct Method (DDM) and the standard Brute Force Method (BFM) in the 3-D CAMx chemical transport model. The model reproduces adequately the observed historical trends and current photochemical levels. Comparison of the BFM and the DDM sensitivity techniques indicates that the model yields ozone values that increase linearly with NOx emission reductions and decrease linearly with VOC emission reductions only up to 30% from the base case. We further performed emissions perturbations from the gasoline fleet, diesel fleet, all mobile (gasoline plus diesel) and all emission sources (anthropogenic plus biogenic). The results suggest that although large ozone reductions obtained in the past were from changes in emissions from gasoline vehicles, currently significant benefits could be achieved with additional emission control policies directed to regulation of VOC emissions from diesel and area sources that are high emitters of alkenes, aromatics and aldehydes.
    Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics. 01/2009;
  • Article: In situ measurements of speciated atmospheric mercury and the identification of source regions in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area
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    ABSTRACT: In order to expand the currently limited understanding of atmospheric mercury source-receptor relationships in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area, real time measurements of atmospheric mercury were made at a downtown urban site, and a rural site on the outskirts of Mexico City, during March 2006. Numerous short-lived increases in particulate mercury (PHg) and reactive gaseous mercury (RGM) concentrations were observed at the urban site during the 17 day study, and less frequent increases in gaseous elemental mercury (GEM) concentrations were measured at both the urban and rural sites. The episodic increases observed were attributed to plume impacts from industrial point source emissions in and around Mexico City. Average concentrations and standard deviations measured during the study were as follows: i) urban site; PHg=187±300 pg m−3, RGM=62±64 pg m−3, GEM=7.2±4.8 ng m−3, and; ii) rural site; GEM=5.0±2.8 ng m−3. Several source regions of atmospheric mercury to the urban and rural sites were determined using Concentration Field Analysis, in which atmospheric mercury measurements were combined with back trajectory data to determine source regions. Only some source regions correlated to mercury emission sources listed in the Federal Pollutant Release and Transfer Register, leaving the rest unaccounted for. Contributions of anthropogenic mercury point sources in and around Mexico City to concentration averages measured at the urban site during the study were estimated to be: 93±3% of reactive mercury (PHg and RGM), and; 81±0.4% of GEM. Point source contributions to GEM measured at the rural site were 72±1%. GEM and reactive mercury (PHg+RGM) were not found to correlate with biomass burning at either of the measurement sites.
    Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics. 01/2009;
  • Article: Impact of primary formaldehyde on air pollution in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area
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    ABSTRACT: Formaldehyde (HCHO) is a radical source that plays an important role in urban atmospheric chemistry and ozone formation. The Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA) is characterized by high anthropogenic emissions of HCHO (primary HCHO), which together with photochemical production of HCHO from hydrocarbon oxidation (secondary HCHO), lead to high ambient HCHO levels. The CAMx chemical transport model was employed to evaluate the impact of primary HCHO on its ambient concentration, on the ROx radical budget, and on ozone (O3) formation in the MCMA. Important radical sources, including HCHO, HONO, and O3-olefin reactions, were constrained by measurements from routine observations of the local ambient air monitoring network and the MCMA-2003 field campaign. Primary HCHO was found not only to contribute significantly to the ambient HCHO concentration, but also to enhance the radical budget and O3 production in the urban atmosphere of the MCMA. Overall in the urban area, total daytime radical production is enhanced by up to 10% and peak O3 concentration by up to 8%; moreover primary HCHO tends to make O3 both production rates and ambient concentration peak half an hour earlier. While primary HCHO contributes predominantly to the ambient HCHO concentration between nighttime and morning rush hours, significant influence on the radical budget and O3 production starts early in the morning, peaks at mid-morning and is sustained until early afternoon.
    Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics. 01/2009;
  • Article: Evaluation of WRF mesoscale simulations and particle trajectory analysis for the MILAGRO field campaign
    B. de Foy, Zavala M, Bei N, L. T. Molina
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    ABSTRACT: Accurate numerical simulations of the complex wind flows in the Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA) can be an invaluable tool for interpreting the MILAGRO field campaign results. This paper uses three methods to evaluate numerical simulations of basin meteorology using the MM5 and WRF models: statistical comparisons with observations, "Concentration Field Analysis" (CFA) using measured air pollutant concentrations, and comparison of flow features using cluster analysis. CFA is shown to be a better indication of simulation quality than statistical metrics, and WRF simulations are shown to be an improvement on the MM5 ones. Comparisons with clusters identifies an under-representation of the drainage flows into the basin and an over-representation of wind shear in the boundary layer. Particle trajectories simulated with WRF-FLEXPART are then used to analyse the transport of the urban plume and show rapid venting and limited recirculation during MILAGRO. Lagrangian impacts were identified at the campaign supersites, and age spectra of the pollutants evaluated at those same sites. The evaluation presented in the paper show that mesoscale meteorological simulations are of sufficient accuracy to be useful for MILAGRO data analysis.
    Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions. 01/2009;
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    Article: Eddy covariance flux measurements of pollutant gases in urban Mexico City
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    ABSTRACT: Eddy covariance (EC) flux measurements of the atmosphere/surface exchange of gases over an urban area are a direct way to improve and evaluate emissions inventories, and, in turn, to better understand urban atmospheric chemistry and the role that cities play in regional and global chemical cycles. As part of the MCMA-2003 study, we demonstrated the feasibility of using eddy covariance techniques to measure fluxes of selected volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and CO2 from a residential district of Mexico City (Velasco et al., 2005a, b). During the MILAGRO/MCMA-2006 field campaign, a second flux measurement study was conducted in a different district of Mexico City to corroborate the 2003 flux measurements, to expand the number of species measured, and to obtain additional data for evaluation of the local emissions inventory. Fluxes of CO2 and olefins were measured by the conventional EC technique using an open path CO2 sensor and a Fast Isoprene Sensor calibrated with a propylene standard. In addition, fluxes of toluene, benzene, methanol and C2-benzenes were measured using a virtual disjunct EC method with a Proton Transfer Reaction Mass Spectrometer. The flux measurements were analyzed in terms of diurnal patterns and vehicular activity and were compared with the most recent gridded emissions inventory. In both studies, the results showed that the urban surface of Mexico City is a net source of CO2 and VOCs with significant contributions from vehicular traffic. Evaporative emissions from commercial and other anthropogenic activities were significant sources of toluene and methanol. The data show that the emissions inventory is in reasonable agreement with measured olefin and CO2 fluxes, while C2-benzenes and toluene emissions from evaporative sources are overestimated in the inventory. It appears that methanol emissions from mobile sources occur, but are not present in the mobile emissions inventory.
    Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions. 01/2009;
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    Article: Measurements of OH and HO<sub>2</sub> concentrations during the MCMA-2006 field campaign – Part 2: Model comparison and radical budget
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    ABSTRACT: Measurements of hydroxyl (OH) and hydroperoxy (HO<sub>2</sub>) radicals were made during the Mexico City Metropolitan Area (MCMA) field campaign as part of the MILAGRO (Megacity Initiative: Local and Global Research Observations) project during March 2006. These measurements provide a unique opportunity to test current models of atmospheric RO<sub>x</sub> (OH+HO<sub>2</sub>+RO<sub>2</sub>) photochemistry under polluted conditions. A zero-dimensional box model based on the Regional Atmospheric Chemical Mechanism (RACM) was constrained by 10-min averages of 24 J -values and the concentrations of 97 chemical species. Several issues related to the RO<sub>x</sub> chemistry under polluted conditions are highlighted in this study: (i) median concentrations of both OH and HO<sub>2</sub> were underpredicted during morning hours, suggesting a significant source of radicals is missing from current atmospheric models under polluted conditions, consistent with previous urban field campaigns. (ii) The predicted HO<sub>2</sub>/OH ratios were underestimated for NO mixing ratios higher than 5 ppb, also consistent with previous urban field campaigns. This suggests that under high NO<sub>x</sub> conditions, the HO<sub>2</sub> to OH propagation rate may be overestimated by the model or a process converting OH into HO<sub>2</sub> may be missing from the chemical mechanism. On a daily basis (08:40 a.m.–06:40 p.m.), an analysis of the radical budget indicates that HONO photolysis, HCHO photolysis, O<sub>3</sub>-alkene reactions and dicarbonyls photolysis are the main radical sources. O<sub>3</sub> photolysis contributes to less than 6% of the total radical production.
    Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics Discussions. 01/2009;
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    Article: Measurements of OH and HO2 concentrations during the MCMA-2006 field campaign: Part 1 – Deployment of the Indiana University laser-induced fluorescence instrument
    Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 01/2009; 9:1665-1685.
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    Article: Comparison of emission ratios from on-road sources using a mobile laboratory under various driving and operational sampling modes
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    ABSTRACT: Mobile sources produce a significant fraction of the total anthropogenic emissions burden in large cities and have harmful effects on air quality at multiple spatial scales. Mobile emissions are intrinsically difficult to estimate due to the large number of parameters affecting the emissions variability within and across vehicles types. The MCMA-2003 Campaign in Mexico City has showed the utility of using a mobile laboratory to sample and characterize specific classes of motor vehicles to better quantify their emissions characteristics as a function of their driving cycles. The technique clearly identifies "high emitter" vehicles via individual exhaust plumes, and also provides fleet average emission rates. We have applied this technique to Mexicali during the Border Ozone Reduction and Air Quality Improvement Program for the Mexicali-Imperial Valley in 2005. In this paper we analyze the variability of measured emission ratios for emitted NO<sub>x</sub>, CO, specific VOCs, NH<sub>3</sub>, and some primary fine particle components and properties obtained during the Border Ozone Reduction and Air Quality Improvement Program for the Mexicali-Imperial Valley in 2005 by deploying a mobile laboratory in roadside stationary sampling, chase and fleet average operational sampling modes. The measurements reflect various driving modes characteristic of the urban fleets. The observed variability for all measured gases and particle emission ratios is greater for the chase and roadside stationary sampling than for fleet average measurements. The fleet average sampling mode captured the effects of traffic conditions on the measured on-road emission ratios, allowing the use of fuel-based emission ratios to assess the validity of traditional "bottom-up" emissions inventories. Using the measured on-road emission ratios, we estimate CO and NO<sub>x</sub> mobile emissions of 175±62 and 10.4±1.3 metric tons/day, respectively, for the gasoline vehicle fleet in Mexicali. Comparisons with similar on-road emissions data from Mexico City indicated that fleet average NO emission ratios were around 20% higher in Mexicali than in Mexico City whereas HCHO and NH<sub>3</sub> emission ratios were higher by a factor of 2 in Mexico City than in Mexicali. Acetaldehyde emission ratios did not differ significantly whereas selected aromatics VOCs emissions were similar or smaller in Mexicali. On-road heavy-duty diesel truck (HDDT) nitrogen oxides emissions were measured near Austin, Texas, as well as in both Mexican cities, with NO<sub>y</sub> emission ratios in Austin < Mexico City < Mexicali.
    ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY AND PHYSICS 01/2009; 9:1-14. · 5.52 Impact Factor