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Menard Chihana,
Sian Floyd,
Anna Molesworth,
Amelia C Crampin,
Ndoliwe Kayuni,
Alison Price,
Basia Zaba,
Andreas Jahn, Hazzie Mvula,
Albert Dube,
Bagrey Ngwira,
Judith R Glynn,
Neil French
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ABSTRACT: Developing countries are undergoing demographic transition with a shift from high mortality caused by communicable diseases (CD) to lower mortality rates caused by non-communicable diseases (NCD). HIV/AIDS has disrupted this trend in sub-Saharan Africa. However, in recent years, HIV-associated mortality has been reduced with the introduction of widely available antiretroviral therapy (ART). Side effects of ART may lead to increased risk of cardiovascular diseases, raising the prospects of an accelerated transition towards NCD as the primary cause of death. We report population-based data to investigate changes in cause of death owing to NCD during the first 4 years after introduction of HIV treatment.
We analysed data from a demographic surveillance system in Karonga district, Malawi, from September 2004 to August 2009. ART was introduced in mid-2005. Clinician review of verbal autopsies conducted 2-6 weeks after a death was used to establish a single principal cause of death.
Over the entire period, there were 905 deaths, AIDS death rate fell from 505 to 160/100,000 person-years, and there was no evidence of an increase in NCD rates. The proportion of total deaths attributable to AIDS fell from 42% to 17% and from NCD increased from 37% to 49%.
Our findings show that 4 years after the introduction of ART into HIV care in Karonga district, all-cause mortality has fallen dramatically, with no evidence of an increase in deaths owing to NCD.
Tropical Medicine & International Health 08/2012; 17(8):e74-83. · 2.80 Impact Factor
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David Maman,
Judith R Glynn,
Amelia C Crampin,
Katharina Kranzer,
Jacqueline Saul,
Andreas Jahn,
Venance Mwinuka,
Msenga Hc Ngwira, Hazzie Mvula,
Fipson Munthali,
Nuala McGrath
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ABSTRACT: Antiretroviral (ART) scale-up in Malawi has been achieved on a large scale based mainly on clinical criteria. Simple markers of prognosis are useful, and we investigated the value of very early anthropometric changes in predicting mortality.
Adult patients who initiated ART in Karonga District, northern Malawi, between September 2005 and August 2006 were included in a prospective cohort study, and followed for up to one year. We used Cox regression to examine the association between anthropometric changes at 2 and 6 weeks and deaths within the first year. 573 patients were included, of whom 59% were women; the median age at initiation was 37 and 64% were in WHO stage 4. Both body mass index (BMI) and mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC) increased linearly with increased time on ART, and were closely correlated with each other. There were 118 deaths. After 2 weeks on ART, a BMI increase of <0.5 kg/m(2) (HR 2.47, 95%CI 1.24-4.94, p=0.005) or a MUAC increase of <0.5cm (HR 2.79, 95%CI 1.19-6.55, p=0.008) were strong predictors of death, and these associations were stronger after adjusting for baseline charactertistics. Similar results were found after 6 weeks on ART.
Very early anthropometric changes, after 2 and 6 weeks on ART, are strong predictors of survival, independent of baseline characteristics. This should help identify patients requiring more detailed assessment where facilities are limited. MUAC is particularly valuable, requiring the simplest equipment and being appropriate for patients who have problems standing.
The Open AIDS Journal 01/2012; 6:36-44.
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Maeve K Lalor,
Sian Floyd,
Patricia Gorak-Stolinska,
Anne Ben-Smith,
Rosemary E Weir,
Steven G Smith,
Melanie J Newport,
Rose Blitz, Hazzie Mvula,
Keith Branson,
Nuala McGrath,
Amelia C Crampin,
Paul E Fine,
Hazel M Dockrell
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ABSTRACT: BCG vaccination of infants is thought to provide good protection in all settings. This study investigated whether Malawian infants made weaker responses across a cytokine panel after BCG vaccination, compared with UK infants.
Diluted whole-blood samples were cultured with Mycobacterium tuberculosis purified protein derivative for 6 days from BCG-vaccinated infants 3 months (n = 40 Malawi, 28 UK) and 12 months (n = 34 Malawi, 26 UK) after vaccination, and also from UK unvaccinated infants (n = 9 at 3 months, n = 10 at 12 months). Forty-two cytokines were measured in supernatants using a multiplex bead array assay. Principal component analysis was used to summarize the overall patterns in cytokine responses.
We found differences in median responses in 27 of the 42 cytokines: 7 higher in the UK and 20 higher in Malawi. The cytokines with higher responses in the UK were all T helper 1 related. The cytokines with higher responses in Malawi included innate proinflammatory cytokines, regulatory cytokines, interleukin 17, T helper 2 cytokines, chemokines, and growth factors. Principal component analysis separated the BCG-vaccinated infants from Malawi from the UK vaccinated infants and from the unvaccinated infants.
Malawian infants make cytokine responses following BCG vaccination, but the cytokine profile is different from that in the UK. The different biosignatures following BCG vaccination in the 2 settings may indicate variability in the protective efficacy of infant BCG vaccination.
The Journal of Infectious Diseases 10/2011; 204(7):1075-85. · 6.41 Impact Factor
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Nuala McGrath,
Judith R Glynn,
Jacqueline Saul,
Katharina Kranzer,
Andreas Jahn,
Frank Mwaungulu,
Msenga H C Ngwira, Hazzie Mvula,
Fipson Munthali,
Venance Mwinuka,
Lorren Mwaungulu,
Paul E M Fine,
Amelia C Crampin
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ABSTRACT: Routine ART programme statistics generally only provide information about individuals who start treatment. We aimed to investigate the outcome of those who are eligible but do not start ART in the Malawi programme, factors associated with this dropout, and reasons for not starting treatment, in a prospective cohort study.
Individuals having a first screening visit at the ART clinic at Karonga District Hospital, northern Malawi, between September 2005 and July 2006 were interviewed. Study follow-up to identify treatment outcomes was conducted at the clinic and in the community. Logistic regression models were used to identify factors associated with dropout before ART initiation among participants identified as clinically eligible for ART.
88 participants eligible for ART at their first screening visit (out of 633, 13.9%) defaulted before starting ART. Participants with less education, difficulties in dressing, a more delayed ART initiation appointment, and mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC) < 22 cm were significantly less likely to have visited the clinic subsequently. Thirty-five (58%) of the 60 participants who defaulted and were tracked at home had died, 21 before their ART initiation appointment.
MUAC and reported difficulties in dressing may provide useful screening indicators to identify sicker ART-eligible individuals at high risk of dropping out of the programme who might benefit from being brought back quickly or admitted to hospital for observation. Individuals with less education may need adapted health information at screening. Deaths of ART-eligible individuals occurring prior to ART initiation are not included in routine programme statistics. Considering all those who are eligible for ART as a denominator for programme indicators would help to highlight this vulnerable group, in order to identify new opportunities for further improving ART programmes.
BMC Public Health 10/2010; 10:601. · 2.00 Impact Factor
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Nuala McGrath,
Judith Glynn,
Jacqueline Saul,
Katharina Kranzer,
Andreas Jahn,
Frank Mwaungulu,
Msenga Ngwira, Hazzie Mvula,
Fipson Munthali,
Venance Mwinuka,
Lorren Mwaungulu,
Paul Fine,
Amelia Crampin
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ABSTRACT: Abstract Background Routine ART programme statistics generally only provide information about individuals who start treatment. We aimed to investigate the outcome of those who are eligible but do not start ART in the Malawi programme, factors associated with this dropout, and reasons for not starting treatment, in a prospective cohort study. Methods Individuals having a first screening visit at the ART clinic at Karonga District Hospital, northern Malawi, between September 2005 and July 2006 were interviewed. Study follow-up to identify treatment outcomes was conducted at the clinic and in the community. Logistic regression models were used to identify factors associated with dropout before ART initiation among participants identified as clinically eligible for ART. Results 88 participants eligible for ART at their first screening visit (out of 633, 13.9%) defaulted before starting ART. Participants with less education, difficulties in dressing, a more delayed ART initiation appointment, and mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC) < 22 cm were significantly less likely to have visited the clinic subsequently. Thirty-five (58%) of the 60 participants who defaulted and were tracked at home had died, 21 before their ART initiation appointment. Conclusions MUAC and reported difficulties in dressing may provide useful screening indicators to identify sicker ART-eligible individuals at high risk of dropping out of the programme who might benefit from being brought back quickly or admitted to hospital for observation. Individuals with less education may need adapted health information at screening. Deaths of ART-eligible individuals occurring prior to ART initiation are not included in routine programme statistics. Considering all those who are eligible for ART as a denominator for programme indicators would help to highlight this vulnerable group, in order to identify new opportunities for further improving ART programmes.
BMC Public Health. 01/2010;
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Maeve K Lalor,
Anne Ben-Smith,
Patricia Gorak-Stolinska,
Rosemary E Weir,
Sian Floyd,
Rose Blitz, Hazzie Mvula,
Melanie J Newport,
Keith Branson,
Nuala McGrath,
Amelia C Crampin,
Paul E M Fine,
Hazel M Dockrell
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ABSTRACT: Bacille Calmette-Guérin (BCG) vaccination induces a marked increase in the interferon (IFN)-gamma response to Mycobacterium tuberculosis purified protein derivative (Mtb PPD) in UK adolescents, but not in Malawian adolescents. We hypothesized that Mtb PPD-induced IFN-gamma after BCG vaccination would be similar in infants from these 2 countries. Infants were vaccinated with BCG during the first 3-13 weeks of life. Three months after BCG vaccination, 51 (100%) of 51 UK infants had an IFN-gamma response to Mtb PPD, compared to 41 (53%) of 78 of Malawian infants, in whom responses varied according to their season of birth. We conclude that population differences in immune responses after BCG vaccination are observed among infants, as well as among young adults.
The Journal of Infectious Diseases 04/2009; 199(6):795-800. · 6.41 Impact Factor
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Anne Ben-Smith,
Patricia Gorak-Stolinska,
Sian Floyd,
Rosemary E Weir,
Maeve K Lalor, Hazzie Mvula,
Amelia C Crampin,
Diana Wallace,
Peter Cl Beverley,
Paul Em Fine,
Hazel M Dockrell
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ABSTRACT: Differences in degree of environmental exposure to antigens in early life have been hypothesized to lead to differences in immune status in individuals from different populations, which may have implications for immune responses in later years.
Venous blood from HIV-negative adolescents and blood from the umbilical cords of babies, born to HIV-negative women, post-delivery was collected and analysed using flow cytometry. T cell phenotype was determined from peripheral blood lymphocytes and cytomegalovirus (CMV) seropositivity was assessed by ELISA in adolescents.
HIV-negative Malawian adolescents were shown to have a lower percentage of naïve T cells (CD45RO-CD62Lhi CD11alo), a higher proportion of memory T cells and a higher percentage of CD28- memory (CD28-CD45RO+) T cells compared to age-matched UK adolescents. Malawian adolescents also had a lower percentage of central memory (CD45RA-CCR7+) T cells and a higher percentage of stable memory (CD45RA+CCR7-) T cells than UK adolescents. All of the adolescents tested in Malawi were seropositive for CMV (59/59), compared to 21/58 (36%) of UK adolescents. CMV seropositivity in the UK was associated with a reduced percentage of naïve T cells and an increased percentage of CD28- memory T cells in the periphery. No differences in the proportions of naïve and memory T cell populations were observed in cord blood samples from the two sites.
It is likely that these differences between Malawian and UK adolescents reflect a greater natural exposure to various infections, including CMV, in the African environment and may imply differences in the ability of these populations to induce and maintain immunological memory to vaccines and natural infections.
BMC Infectious Diseases 11/2008; 8:139. · 3.12 Impact Factor
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Andreas Jahn,
Sian Floyd,
Amelia C Crampin,
Frank Mwaungulu, Hazzie Mvula,
Fipson Munthali,
Nuala McGrath,
Johnbosco Mwafilaso,
Venance Mwinuka,
Bernard Mangongo,
Paul E M Fine,
Basia Zaba,
Judith R Glynn
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ABSTRACT: Malawi, which has about 80,000 deaths from AIDS every year, made free antiretroviral therapy available to more than 80 000 patients between 2004 and 2006. We aimed to investigate mortality in a population before and after the introduction of free antiretroviral therapy, and therefore to assess the effects of such programmes on survival at the population level.
We used a demographic surveillance system to measure mortality in a population of 32,000 in northern Malawi, from August, 2002, when free antiretroviral therapy was not available in the study district, until February, 2006, 8 months after a clinic opened. Causes of death were established through verbal autopsies (retrospective interviews). Patients who registered for antiretroviral therapy at the clinic were identified and linked to the population under surveillance. Trends in mortality were analysed by age, sex, cause of death, and zone of residence.
Before antiretroviral therapy became available in June, 2005, mortality in adults (aged 15-59 years) was 9.8 deaths for 1000 person-years of observation (95% CI 8.9-10.9). The probability of dying between the ages of 15 and 60 years was 43% (39-49) for men and 43% (38-47) for women; 229 of 352 deaths (65.1%) were attributed to AIDS. 8 months after the clinic that provided antiretroviral therapy opened, 107 adults from the study population had accessed treatment, out of an estimated 334 in need of treatment. Overall mortality in adults had decreased by 10% from 10.2 to 8.7 deaths for 1000 person-years of observation (adjusted rate ratio 0.90, 95% CI 0.70-1.14). Mortality was reduced by 35% (adjusted rate ratio 0.65, 0.46-0.92) in adults near the main road, where mortality before antiretroviral therapy was highest (from 13.2 to 8.5 deaths per 1000 person-years of observation before and after antiretroviral therapy). Mortality in adults aged 60 years or older did not change.
Our findings of a reduction in mortality in adults aged between 15 and 59 years, with no change in those older than 60 years, suggests that deaths from AIDS were averted by the rapid scale-up of free antiretroviral therapy in rural Malawi, which led to a decline in adult mortality that was detectable at the population level.
The Lancet 06/2008; 371(9624):1603-11. · 38.28 Impact Factor
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Marc-André Prost,
Andreas Jahn,
Sian Floyd, Hazzie Mvula,
Eleneus Mwaiyeghele,
Venance Mwinuka,
Thomas Mhango,
Amelia C Crampin,
Nuala McGrath,
Paul E M Fine,
Judith R Glynn
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ABSTRACT: The World Health Organization (WHO) released new Child Growth Standards in 2006 to replace the current National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) growth reference. We assessed how switching from the NCHS to the newly released WHO Growth Standards affects the estimated prevalence of wasting, underweight and stunting, and the pattern of risk factors identified.
Data were drawn from a village-informant driven Demographic Surveillance System in Northern Malawi. Children (n = 1328) were visited twice at 0-4 months and 11-15 months. Data were collected on the demographic and socio-economic environment of the child, health history, maternal and child anthropometry and child feeding practices. Weight-for-length, weight-for-age and length-for-age were derived in z-scores using the two growth references. In early infancy, prevalence estimates were 2.9, 6.1, and 8.5 fold higher for stunting, underweight, and wasting respectively using the WHO standards compared to NCHS reference (p<0.001 for all). At one year, prevalence estimates for wasting and stunting did not differ significantly according to reference used, but the prevalence of underweight was half that with the NCHS reference (p<0.001). Patterns of risk factors were similar with the two growth references for all outcomes at one year although the strength of association was higher with WHO standards.
Differences in prevalence estimates differed in magnitude but not direction from previous studies. The scale of these differences depends on the population's nutritional status thus it should not be assumed a priori. The increase in estimated prevalence of wasting in early infancy has implications for feeding programs targeting lactating mothers and ante-natal multiple micronutrients supplementation to tackle small birth size. Risk factors identified using WHO standards remain comparable with findings based on the NCHS reference in similar settings. Further research should aim to identify whether the young infants additionally diagnosed as malnourished by this new standard are more appropriate targets for interventions than those identified with the NCHS reference.
PLoS ONE 01/2008; 3(7):e2684. · 4.09 Impact Factor
