Jim Todd

National Institute for Medical Research (NIMR), Dar es Salaam, Dar es Salaam Region, Tanzania

Are you Jim Todd?

Claim your profile

Publications (46)231.57 Total impact

  • Article: Impact of antiretroviral therapy on adult HIV prevalence in a low-income rural setting in Uganda: a longitudinal population-based study.
    [show abstract] [hide abstract]
    ABSTRACT: OBJECTIVE:: To estimate the contribution to HIV prevalence of lives saved due to the introduction of antiretroviral therapy (ART) in rural Uganda in 2004. DESIGN:: Open population-based cohort study. METHODS:: An open general population cohort with annual demographic and HIV sero-status data is used to estimate annual HIV prevalence, HIV incidence and mortality from 2000-2010. We calculated standardized mortality rates among HIV-positive adults and the expected number of deaths in the cohort if ART had not been available during 2004-2010, based on the average mortality rate in the 4 years (2000-2003) before ART introduction. RESULTS:: During 2004-2010 the estimated prevalence increased by 29% from 6.9% to 8.9%. HIV incidence was 5.6 cases per 1,000 person-years in 2004, falling to 3.9 cases per 1,000 person-years in 2006 and slightly rising to 5.1 in 2010. There was an increase of 182 in the number of HIV-positive participants during that period, but a cumulative 228 lives were saved due to ART. Expected lives saved due to ART accounted for an increasing proportion of the estimated HIV prevalence from 4.0% in 2004 to 29.4% in 2010. CONCLUSIONS:: Expected lives saved due to ART largely accounted for the increased estimated HIV prevalence from 2004-2010. Since HIV prevalence survey results are important for planning, programming and policy, their interpretation requires consideration of the increasing impact of ART in decreasing mortality.
    JAIDS Journal of Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndromes 01/2013; · 4.43 Impact Factor
  • Article: The development and validation of dried blood spots for external quality assurance of syphilis serology.
    [show abstract] [hide abstract]
    ABSTRACT: Syphilis causes up to 1,500,000 congenital syphilis cases annually. These could be prevented if all pregnant women were screened, and those with syphilis treated with a single dose of penicillin before 28 weeks gestation. In recent years, rapid point-of-care tests have allowed greater access to syphilis screening, especially in rural or remote areas, but the lack of quality assurance of rapid testing has been a concern. We determined the feasibility of using dried blood spots (DBS) as specimens for quality assurance of syphilis serological assays. We developed DBS extraction protocols for use with Treponema pallidum particle agglutination assay (TPPA), Treponema pallidum haemagglutination assay (TPHA) and an enzyme immunoassay (EIA) and compared the results with those using matching plasma samples from the same patient. Since DBS samples showed poor performance with TPHA and EIA (TPHA sensitivity was 50.5% (95% confidence interval: 39.9-61.2%) and EIA specificity was 50.4% (95% CI: 43.7-57.1%), only the DBS TPPA was used in the final evaluation. DBS TPPA showed an sensitivity of 95.5% (95% CI: 91.3-98.0%) and a specificity of 99.0% (95% CI: 98.1-99.5%) compared to TPPA using plasma samples as a reference. DBS samples can be recommended for use with TPPA, and may be of value for external quality assurance of point-of-care syphilis testing.
    BMC Infectious Diseases 01/2013; 13:102. · 3.12 Impact Factor
  • Article: Effect of Genital Herpes on Cervicovaginal HIV Shedding in Women Co-Infected with HIV AND HSV-2 in Tanzania.
    [show abstract] [hide abstract]
    ABSTRACT: To compare the presence and quantity of cervicovaginal HIV among HIV seropositive women with clinical herpes, subclinical HSV-2 infection and without HSV-2 infection respectively; to evaluate the association between cervicovaginal HIV and HSV shedding; and identify factors associated with quantity of cervicovaginal HIV. Four groups of HIV seropositive adult female barworkers were identified and examined at three-monthly intervals between October 2000 and March 2003 in Mbeya, Tanzania: (1) 57 women at 70 clinic visits with clinical genital herpes; (2) 39 of the same women at 46 clinic visits when asymptomatic; (3) 55 HSV-2 seropositive women at 60 clinic visits who were never observed with herpetic lesions; (4) 18 HSV-2 seronegative women at 45 clinic visits. Associations of genital HIV shedding with HIV plasma viral load (PVL), herpetic lesions, HSV shedding and other factors were examined. Prevalence of detectable genital HIV RNA varied from 73% in HSV-2 seronegative women to 94% in women with herpetic lesions (geometric means 1634 vs 3339 copies/ml, p = 0.03). In paired specimens from HSV-2 positive women, genital HIV viral shedding was similar during symptomatic and asymptomatic visits. On multivariate regression, genital HIV RNA (log10 copies/mL) was closely associated with HIV PVL (β = 0.51 per log10 copies/ml increase, 95%CI:0.41-0.60, p<0.001) and HSV shedding (β = 0.24 per log10 copies/ml increase, 95% CI:0.16-0.32, p<0.001) but not the presence of herpetic lesions (β = -0.10, 95%CI:-0.28-0.08, p = 0.27). HIV PVL and HSV shedding were more important determinants of genital HIV than the presence of herpetic lesions. These data support a role of HSV-2 infection in enhancing HIV transmissibility.
    PLoS ONE 01/2013; 8(3):e59037. · 4.09 Impact Factor
  • Article: Low Rates of Repeat HIV Testing Despite Increased Availability of Antiretroviral Therapy in Rural Tanzania: Findings from 2003-2010.
    [show abstract] [hide abstract]
    ABSTRACT: HIV counselling and testing (HCT) services can play an important role in HIV prevention by encouraging safe sexual behaviours and linking HIV-infected clients to antiretroviral therapy (ART). However, regular repeat testing by high-risk HIV-negative individuals is important for timely initiation of ART as part of the 'treatment as prevention' approach. To investigate HCT use during a round of HIV serological surveillance in northwest Tanzania in 2010, and to explore rates of repeat testing between 2003 and 2010. HCT services were provided during the fourth, fifth and sixth rounds of serological surveillance in 2003-2004 (Sero-4), 2006-2007 (Sero-5) and 2010 (Sero-6). HCT services have also been available at a government-run health centre and at other clinics in the study area since 2005. Questionnaires administered during sero-surveys collected information on socio-demographic characteristics, sexual behaviour and reported previous use of HCT services. The proportion of participants using HCT increased from 9.4% at Sero-4 to 16.6% at Sero-5 and 25.5% at Sero-6. Among participants attending all three sero-survey rounds (n = 2,010), the proportions using HCT twice or more were low, with 11.1% using the HCT service offered at sero-surveys twice or more, and 25.3% having tested twice or more if reported use of HCT outside of sero-surveys was taken into account. In multivariable analyses, individuals testing HIV-positive were less likely to repeat test than individuals testing HIV-negative (aOR 0.17, 95% CI 0.006-0.52). DISCUSSIONCONCLUSIONS: Although HCT service use increased over time, it was disappointing that the proportions ever testing and ever repeat-testing were not even larger, considering the increasing availability of HCT and ART in the study area. There was some evidence that HIV-negative people with higher risk sexual behaviours were most likely to repeat test, which was encouraging in terms of the potential to pick-up those at greatest risk of HIV-infection.
    PLoS ONE 01/2013; 8(4):e62212. · 4.09 Impact Factor
  • Article: Antiretroviral therapy in sub-Saharan Africa: evidence about need, uptake and impact from community-based cohort studies.
    Tropical Medicine & International Health 08/2012; 17(8):e1-2. · 2.80 Impact Factor
  • Article: Antiretroviral therapy uptake and coverage in four HIV community cohort studies in sub-Saharan Africa.
    [show abstract] [hide abstract]
    ABSTRACT: To compare socio-demographic patterns in access to antiretroviral therapy (ART) across four community HIV cohort studies in Africa. Data on voluntary counselling and testing and ART use among HIV-infected persons were analysed from Karonga (Malawi), Kisesa (Tanzania), Masaka (Uganda) and Manicaland (Zimbabwe), where free ART provision started between 2004 and 2007. ART coverage was compared across sites by calculating the proportion on ART among those estimated to need treatment, by age, sex and educational attainment. Logistic regression was used to identify socio-demographic characteristics associated with undergoing eligibility screening at an ART clinic within 2 years of being diagnosed with HIV, for three sites with information on diagnosis and screening dates. Among adults known to be HIV-infected from serological surveys, the proportion who knew their HIV status was 93% in Karonga, 37% in Kisesa, 46% in Masaka and 25% in Manicaland. Estimated ART coverage was highest in Masaka (68%) and lowest in Kisesa (2%). The proportion of HIV-diagnosed persons who were screened for ART eligibility within 2 years of diagnosis ranged from 14% in Kisesa to 84% in Masaka, with the probability of screening uptake increasing with age at diagnosis in all sites. Higher HIV testing rates among HIV-infected persons in the community do not necessarily correspond with higher uptake of ART, nor more equitable treatment coverage among those in need of treatment. In all sites, young adults tend to be disadvantaged in terms of accessing and initiating ART, even after accounting for their less urgent need.
    Tropical Medicine & International Health 08/2012; 17(8):e38-48. · 2.80 Impact Factor
  • Article: The impact of antiretroviral therapy on adult mortality in rural Tanzania.
    [show abstract] [hide abstract]
    ABSTRACT: To describe the impact of antiretroviral therapy (ART) on mortality rates among adults participating in an HIV community cohort study in north-west Tanzania. Serological and demographic surveillance rounds have been undertaken in a population of approximately 30,000 people since 1994. Free HIV care including ART has been available since 2005. Event history analysis was used to compare mortality rates among HIV-negative and HIV-positive adults in the 5-year period before and after the introduction of ART. Crude and adjusted hazard ratios were calculated using exponential regression models. Interaction between time period and HIV status was assessed to investigate whether there was a non-linear relationship between these two variables. Male and female mortality patterns varied over the pre- and post-ART period. In women, the crude death rate fell for both HIV negatives and HIV positives hazard rate ratio (HRR = 0.71; 95%CI 0.51-0.99 and HRR = 0.68; 95%CI: 0.46-0.99, respectively). For men, the mortality among the HIV negatives increased (HRR = 1.47; 95%CI: 1.06-2.03) while the decline in mortality among the HIV positives (HRR = 0.77; 95%CI 0.52-1.13) was not statistically significant. The largest decrease in HIV-positive mortality over the two periods was among the 30- to 44-year-old age group for women and among the 45- to 59-year-old age group for men. There has been a modest effect on mortality in the study population following the introduction of free ART 5 years ago. Improving access to treatment and placing greater focus on retaining individuals on treatment are essential if the full potential of treatment for reducing HIV-related mortality is to be realised.
    Tropical Medicine & International Health 08/2012; 17(8):e58-65. · 2.80 Impact Factor
  • Article: Using age-specific mortality of HIV infected persons to predict anti-retroviral treatment need: a comparative analysis of data from five African population-based cohort studies.
    [show abstract] [hide abstract]
    ABSTRACT: To present a simple method for estimating population-level anti-retroviral therapy (ART) need that does not rely on knowledge of past HIV incidence. A new approach to estimating ART need is developed based on calculating age-specific proportions of HIV-infected adults expected to die within a fixed number of years in the absence of treatment. Mortality data for HIV-infected adults in the pre-treatment era from five African HIV cohort studies were combined to construct a life table, starting at age 15, smoothed with a Weibull model. Assuming that ART should be made available to anyone expected to die within 3 years, conditional 3-year survival probabilities were computed to represent proportions needing ART. The build-up of ART need in a successful programme continuously recruiting infected adults into treatment as they age to within 3 years of expected death was represented by annually extending the conditional survival range. The Weibull model: survival probability in the infected state from age 15 = exp(-0.0073 × (age - 15)(1.69)) fitted the pooled age-specific mortality data very closely. Initial treatment need for infected persons increased rapidly with age, from 15% at age 20-24 to 32% at age 40-44 and 42% at age 60-64. Overall need in the treatment of naïve population was 24%, doubling within 5 years in a programme continually recruiting patients entering the high-risk period for dying. A reasonable projection of treatment need in an ART naive population can be made based on the age and gender profile of HIV-infected people.
    Tropical Medicine & International Health 08/2012; 17(8):e3-14. · 2.80 Impact Factor
  • Article: The effect of antiretroviral therapy provision on all-cause, AIDS and non-AIDS mortality at the population level--a comparative analysis of data from four settings in Southern and East Africa.
    [show abstract] [hide abstract]
    ABSTRACT: To provide a broad and up-to-date picture of the effect of antiretroviral therapy (ART) provision on population-level mortality in Southern and East Africa. Data on all-cause, AIDS and non-AIDS mortality among 15-59 year olds were analysed from demographic surveillance sites (DSS) in Karonga (Malawi), Kisesa (Tanzania), Masaka (Uganda) and the Africa Centre (South Africa), using Poisson regression. Trends over time from up to 5 years prior to ART roll-out, to 4-6 years afterwards, are presented, overall and by age and sex. For Masaka and Kisesa, trends are analysed separately for HIV-negative and HIV-positive individuals. For Karonga and the Africa Centre, trends in AIDS and non-AIDS mortality are analysed using verbal autopsy data. For all-cause mortality, overall rate ratios (RRs) comparing the period 2-6 years following ART roll-out with the pre-ART period were 0.58 (5.9 vs. 10.2 deaths per 1000 person-years) in Karonga, 0.79 (7.2 vs. 9.1 deaths per 1000 person-years) in Kisesa, 0.61 (6.7 compared with 11.0 deaths per 1000 person-years) in Masaka and 0.79 (14.8 compared with 18.6 deaths per 1000 person-years) in the Africa Centre DSS. The mortality decline was seen only in HIV-positive individuals/AIDS mortality, with no decline in HIV-negative individuals/non-AIDS mortality. Less difference was seen in Kisesa where ART uptake was lower. Falls in all-cause mortality are consistent with ART uptake. The largest falls occurred where ART provision has been decentralised or available locally, suggesting that this is important.
    Tropical Medicine & International Health 08/2012; 17(8):e84-93. · 2.80 Impact Factor
  • Article: Trends in the uptake of voluntary counselling and testing for HIV in rural Tanzania in the context of the scale up of antiretroviral therapy.
    [show abstract] [hide abstract]
    ABSTRACT: To describe trends in voluntary counselling and testing (VCT) use and to assess whether high-risk and infected individuals are receiving counselling and learning their HIV status in rural Tanzania. During two rounds of linked serological surveys (2003-2004 and 2006-2007) with anonymous HIV testing among adults, VCT was offered to all participants. The crude and adjusted odds ratios for completing VCT in each survey were calculated to compare uptake by demographic, behavioural and clinical characteristics, stratified by sex. Repeat testing patterns were also investigated. The proportion of participants completing VCT increased from 10% in 2003-2004 to 17% in 2006-2007, and among HIV-infected persons from 14% to 25%. A higher proportion of men than women completed VCT in both rounds, but the difference declined over time. Socio-demographic and behavioural factors associated with VCT completion were similar across rounds, including higher adjusted odds of VCT with increasing numbers of sexual partners in the past 12 months. The proportion having ever-completed VCT reached 26% among 2006-2007 attendees, with repeat testing rates highest among those aged 35-44 years. Among 3923 participants attending both rounds, VCT completion in 2006-2007 was 17% among 3702 who were HIV negative in both rounds, 19% among 124 who were HIV infected in both rounds and 22% among 96 who seroconverted between rounds. VCT services are attracting HIV-infected and high-risk individuals. However, 2 years after the introduction of antiretroviral therapy, the overall uptake remains low. Intensive mobilisation efforts are needed to achieve regular and universal VCT use.
    Tropical Medicine & International Health 08/2012; 17(8):e15-25. · 2.80 Impact Factor
  • Source
    Article: Evaluation of knowledge levels amongst village AIDS committees after undergoing HIV educational sessions: results from a pilot study in rural Tanzania.
    [show abstract] [hide abstract]
    ABSTRACT: Village AIDS committees (VAC) were formed by the Tanzanian government in 2003 to provide HIV education to their communities. However, their potential has not been realised due to their limited knowledge and misconceptions surrounding HIV, which could be addressed through training of VAC members. In an attempt to increase HIV knowledge levels and address common misconceptions amongst the VACs, an HIV curriculum was delivered to members in rural north western Tanzania. An evaluation of HIV knowledge was conducted prior to and post-delivery of HIV training sessions, within members of three VACs in Kisesa ward. Quantitative surveys were used with several open-ended questions to identify local misconceptions and evaluate HIV knowledge levels. Short educational training sessions covering HIV transmission, prevention and treatment were conducted, with each VAC using quizzes, role-plays and participatory learning and action tools. Post-training surveys occurred up to seven days after the final training session. Before the training, "good" HIV knowledge was higher amongst men than women (p = 0.041), and among those with previous HIV education (p = 0.002). The trade-centre had a faster turn-over of VAC members, and proximity to the trade-centre was associated with a shorter time on the committee.Training improved HIV knowledge levels with more members achieving a "good" score in the post-training survey compared with the baseline survey (p = < 0.001). The training programme was popular, with 100% of participants requesting further HIV training in the future and 51.7% requesting training at three-monthly intervals. In this setting, a series of HIV training sessions for VACs demonstrated encouraging results, with increased HIV knowledge levels following short educational sessions. Further work is required to assess the success of VAC members in disseminating this HIV education to their communities, as well as up-scaling this pilot study to other regions in Tanzania with different misconceptions.
    BMC International Health and Human Rights 12/2011; 11:14. · 1.44 Impact Factor
  • Article: HIV-1 seroprevalence and risk factors for HIV infection among first-time psychiatric admissions in Uganda.
    [show abstract] [hide abstract]
    ABSTRACT: This study investigated HIV seroprevalence and it's correlates among patients with first-time psychiatric admissions to two national referral hospitals in urban Kampala, Uganda. A structured standardised evaluation was used to assess patients for: Diagnostic and Statistical Manual IV psychiatric diagnosis, socio-demographics, sexual behaviour and HIV status (for those HIV-positive, CDC classification and CD4 cell counts). The HIV-1 seroprevalence was 18.4% (95% CI, 13.8-23.0%). Factors that were independently associated with HIV-1 seropositivity were female gender and older age (41+years) and after adjusting for sex and age group, the nature of the current episode (highest among those with first episode of mental illness) and psychiatric diagnoses (highest in the organic affective disorders and delirium, lowest in those with bipolar affective disorder and psychotic syndromes). These results demonstrate that the prevalence of HIV is high among patients with severe mental illness in Africa and that HIV/AIDS adds to the burden of mental illness in high HIV prevalence countries in sub-Saharan Africa. Both HIV care programmes and psychiatric care clinics should be made aware of the frequent association of HIV infection and mental illness, and adopt important diagnostic and care elements of these complementary disciplines in the training and the day-to-day work of clinicians, nurses and counsellors.
    AIDS Care 02/2011; 23(2):171-8. · 1.60 Impact Factor
  • Article: Impact of the MEMA kwa Vijana adolescent sexual and reproductive health interventions on use of health services by young people in rural Mwanza, Tanzania: results of a cluster randomized trial.
    [show abstract] [hide abstract]
    ABSTRACT: To assess the impact of an adolescent sexual health intervention on the use of health services by young people in Tanzania. Twenty communities, including 39 health facilities, were randomly allocated to the intervention or comparison arm. Health workers from the intervention arm were trained in the provision of youth-friendly health services, as part of a package of interventions. Independent process evaluations were conducted in health facilities, and simulated patients visited clinics using sexual and reproductive health problem scenarios. The impact on health facility attendances were assessed in 1998 (baseline) and 1999-2001. Reported sexually transmitted infection (STI) symptoms and use of health services were evaluated in young people in the trial cohort. The mean monthly attendance for STI symptoms per health facility, per month was .5 for young males and 1.0 for young females at baseline. Attendance by young males was greater in the intervention communities in 1999-2000 after adjustment for baseline differences (p = .005), and this difference increased over time (p-trend = .022). The mean difference in attendance was however relatively modest, at 1.1 per month in 2001 after adjustment for baseline (95% CI: .5, 1.7). There was weaker evidence of an intervention effect on attendance by young women (p = .087). Few condoms were distributed, although a greater number were distributed in intervention facilities (p = .008). Generally, intervention health workers tended to be less judgmental and provided more comprehensive information. Training staff to provide more youth-friendly health services can increase the utilization of health services for suspected STIs by young people, especially among young men.
    Journal of Adolescent Health 11/2010; 47(5):512-22. · 3.33 Impact Factor
  • Article: Nutritional status of children living in a community with high HIV prevalence in rural Uganda: a cross-sectional population-based survey.
    [show abstract] [hide abstract]
    ABSTRACT: To assess the nutritional status of children in a rural community with high HIV prevalence in rural Uganda and to examine the impact of HIV infection at the individual and population level. Methods Cross-sectional population-based survey of children aged 0-12 in a cohort comprising the residents of 25 neighbouring villages in rural southwest Uganda. Anthropometric indicators of nutritional status (height for age, weight for age and weight for height) were assessed in relation to children's HIV serostatus, maternal HIV serostatus and maternal vital status. Children with a Z score of <-2 were defined as undernourished, with a Z score <-2 for weight for age defining underweight, for height for age defining stunting and for weight for height defining wasting. Of 5951 children surveyed, 91% underwent anthropometric measurement: 30% were underweight, 42% stunted and 10% wasted. HIV seroprevalence among children aged 2-12 was 0.7%. The prevalence of underweight was significantly higher in HIV-positive than in HIV-negative children (52%vs. 30%), as was the prevalence of stunting (68%vs. 42%), but there was no significant difference in the prevalence of wasting (4%vs. 9%). There were no significant differences in the prevalences of indicators of undernutrition in children classified by maternal HIV and vital status. Chronic childhood undernutrition is common in this rural community. HIV infection had a direct effect in worsening children's nutritional status, but no indirect effect in terms of maternal HIV infection or maternal death. The population-level impact of childhood HIV infection on nutritional status is limited on account of the low HIV prevalence in children. The response to undernutrition in children in Africa requires action on many fronts: not only delivering community-wide HIV and nutritional interventions but also addressing the many interacting factors that contributed to childhood undernutrition before the HIV era and still do so now.
    Tropical Medicine & International Health 02/2010; 15(4):414-22. · 2.80 Impact Factor
  • Source
    Article: "Driving the devil away": qualitative insights into miraculous cures for AIDS in a rural Tanzanian ward.
    [show abstract] [hide abstract]
    ABSTRACT: The role of religious beliefs in the prevention of HIV and attitudes towards the infected has received considerable attention. However, little research has been conducted on Faith Leaders' (FLs) perceptions of antiretroviral therapy (ART) in the developing world. This study investigated FLs' attitudes towards different HIV treatment options (traditional, medical and spiritual) available in a rural Tanzanian ward. Qualitative interviews were conducted with 25 FLs purposively selected to account for all the denominations present in the area. Data was organised into themes using the software package NVIVO-7. The field work guidelines were tailored as new topics emerged and additional codes progressively added to the coding frame. Traditional healers (THs) and FLs were often reported as antagonists but duality prevailed and many FLs simultaneously believed in traditional healing. Inter-denomination mobility was high and guided by pragmatism.Praying for the sick was a common practice and over one third of respondents said that prayer could cure HIV. Being HIV-positive was often seen as "a punishment from God" and a consequence of sin. As sinning could result from "the work of Satan", forgiveness was possible, and a "reconciliation with God" deemed as essential for a favourable remission of the disease. Several FLs believed that "evil spirits" inflicted through witchcraft could cause the disease and claimed that they could cast "demons" away.While prayers could potentially cure HIV "completely", ART use was generally not discouraged because God had "only a part to play". The perceived potential superiority of spiritual options could however lead some users to interrupt treatment. The roll-out of ART is taking place in a context in which the new drugs are competing with a diversity of existing options. As long as the complementarities of prayers and ART are not clearly and explicitly stated by FLs, spiritual options may be interpreted as a superior alternative and contribute to hampering adherence to ART. In contexts where ambivalent attitudes towards the new drugs prevail, enhancing FLs understanding of ART's strengths and pitfalls is an essential step to engage them as active partners in ART scale-up programs.
    BMC Public Health 01/2010; 10:427. · 2.00 Impact Factor
  • Source
    Article: Mortality in HIV infection is independently predicted by host iron status and SLC11A1 and HP genotypes, with new evidence of a gene-nutrient interaction.
    [show abstract] [hide abstract]
    ABSTRACT: Iron-related genes and iron status may independently contribute to variable HIV outcomes. The nature of the biologically plausible gene-nutrient interaction remains unknown. The objectives were to investigate whether iron-related genotypes and clinically abnormal iron status independently predict mortality in HIV and whether a gene-nutrient interaction exists. Baseline plasma, DNA, and clinical data were obtained from 1362 HIV-seropositive Gambian adults followed for 11.5 y to ascertain all-cause mortality. Iron status was estimated on the basis of plasma iron, soluble transferrin receptor (sTfR), ferritin, transferrin, transferrin index, and log(sTfR/ferritin). One haptoglobin (HP) and 5 SLC11A1 (NRAMP1) polymorphisms were genotyped. SLC11A1-SLC3 and CAAA polymorphisms were the best independent genetic predictors of mortality [adjusted mortality rate ratio (95% CI)]: SLC3:G/C = 0.59 (95% CI: 0.45, 0.85), CAAA:del/ins = 1.51 (95% CI: 1.10, 2.07). In an adjusted model that included all polymorphisms, SLC1:199/199, SLC1:other/other, SLC6a:A/A, and CAAA:del/ins were associated with significantly greater mortality, whereas Hp 2-1 and SLC3:G/C were protective. In unadjusted analyses, all biomarker concentrations were significantly associated with mortality. In an extension of previous findings, both low and elevated iron states were associated with mortality, but the nature of the risk was variable, with linear, inversely linear, and U-shaped associations depending on the biomarker. Mortality was significantly lower in HIV-2 than in HIV-1 infection in the presence of abnormal (low or elevated) iron status. A gene-iron interaction was detected (likelihood-ratio test P = 0.018); however, subject numbers restricted category-specific interpretation. Iron-related genes, iron status, and their interaction predict mortality in HIV. These findings illustrate the complexity and uncertainty surrounding best practice for managing abnormal iron status and anemia during HIV infection and in regions with a high risk of infection.
    American Journal of Clinical Nutrition 08/2009; 90(1):225-33. · 6.67 Impact Factor
  • Source
    Article: Sexual behaviour change in countries with generalised HIV epidemics? Evidence from population-based cohort studies in sub-Saharan Africa.
    Sexually transmitted infections 05/2009; 85 Suppl 1:i1-2. · 2.18 Impact Factor
  • Article: Reduced morbidity and mortality in the first year after initiating highly active anti-retroviral therapy (HAART) among Ugandan adults.
    [show abstract] [hide abstract]
    ABSTRACT: To evaluate the effect of highly active anti-retroviral therapy (HAART) and cotrimoxazole prophylaxis on morbidity after HAART eligibility. Between 1999 and 2006, we collected morbidity data from a community-based cohort of HAART-eligible patients, comparing patients initiating HAART and those non-HAART. Patients aged 15 years or older visited the clinic every 6 months and when ill. Baseline data on patients' characteristics, WHO stage, haemoglobin and CD4+ T-cell counts, along with follow-up data on morbidity (new, recurrent and drug-related), were collected for the first year after initiating HAART or becoming HAART-eligible. We estimated the overall effect of HAART on morbidity; adjusted for the effect of cotrimoxazole prophylaxis by Mantel-Haenszel methods. A negative binomial regression model was used to assess rate ratios (RR) after adjustment for other confounders, including cotrimoxazole. A total of 219 HAART patients (median age 37 years; 73% women; 82% using cotrimoxazole prophylaxis, median haemoglobin 11.7 g/dl and median CD4+ 131 cells/microl) experienced 94 events in 127 person-years. 616 non-HAART patients (median age 33 years; 70% women; 26% using cotrimoxazole prophylaxis, median haemoglobin 11.2 g/dl and median CD4+ 130 cells/microl) experienced 862 events in 474 person-years. The overall morbidity during the first year of HAART was 80% lower than among non-HAART patients (adjusted RR = 0.20, 95% CI: 0.12-0.34). Cotrimoxazole prophylaxis also reduced morbidity (adjusted RR = 0.65, 95% CI: 0.45-0.94). These results confirm the reduction in morbidity due to HAART, and the additional protection of cotrimoxazole prophylaxis.
    Tropical Medicine & International Health 04/2009; 14(5):556-63. · 2.80 Impact Factor
  • Source
    Article: Duration from seroconversion to eligibility for antiretroviral therapy and from ART eligibility to death in adult HIV-infected patients from low and middle-income countries: collaborative analysis of prospective studies.
    [show abstract] [hide abstract]
    ABSTRACT: Estimation of the number of people in need of antiretroviral therapy (ART) in resource-limited settings requires information on the time from seroconversion to ART eligibility and from ART eligibility to death. To estimate duration from seroconversion to different ART eligibility criteria and from ART eligibility to death in HIV-infected adults in low-income and middle-income countries. Participants with documented seroconversion from five cohorts (two cohorts from Uganda, two from Thailand and one from Côte d'Ivoire) were analysed. We used Weibull survival models and Bayesian simulation methods to model true (unobserved) first time of treatment eligibility. We set a consistency constraint so that the mean duration from seroconversion to death was equal to the mean from seroconversion to ART eligibility plus the mean from eligibility to death. We analysed data from 2072 participants, 16 157 person-years of follow-up and 794 deaths. For the criterion CD4 T-lymphocyte count <200 cells x10(6)/l, the median duration from seroconversion to ART eligibility was 6.1 years (95% credibility interval 3.3-10.4) for all studies and 7.6 years (95% credibility interval 3.4-15.2) for all but the Thai cohorts. Corresponding estimates for the time from CD4 T-lymphocyte count <200 cells x10(6)/l to death were 2.1 years (0.7-4.8) and 2.7 years (0.8-8.4). When including all cohorts, the mean time from serconversion to CD4 T-lymphocyte count <200 cells x10(6)/l and from CD4 T-lymphocyte count <200 cells x10(6)/l to death represented 66% (38-87%) and 34% (13-62%), respectively of the total survival time. The duration of different ART eligibility criteria to death was longer than the estimates used in previous calculations of the number of people needing ART. However, uncertainty in estimates was considerable and heterogeneity across cohorts important.
    Sexually transmitted infections 08/2008; 84 Suppl 1:i31-i36. · 2.18 Impact Factor
  • Article: Circumcision among adolescent boys in rural northwestern Tanzania.
    [show abstract] [hide abstract]
    ABSTRACT: Male circumcision reduces risk of HIV among heterosexual men by about 60%. Modelling the impact of circumcision on HIV transmission, and planning service expansion, relies on self-reported circumcision status. We investigated the validity of self-reported status. Survey and in-depth interview (IDI) data from adolescents enrolled in a community randomized sexual health intervention trial in rural Mwanza, Tanzania were analysed. The 5354 male school attenders (median age 15.5 years) were recruited in 1998 and followed for 3 years. At baseline, circumcision prevalence was 13.7% by self-report and 11.8% by clinical examination, rising to 17.3% by clinical examination at final survey. Only 61.5% of Muslim males were circumcised at the final survey. Of 506 participants who reported being circumcised at baseline, only 78.9% reported this at interim. Similarly, only 84.2% of participants clinically assessed as circumcised at baseline were also assessed as circumcised at interim. At both baseline and interim surveys, about 80% of participants who reported being circumcised were also found to be so at clinical examination. There was a high tolerance and respect for circumcision among male IDI respondents, with widespread belief that it was beneficial for penile hygiene and disease prevention. The majority of female IDI respondents said that they did not know what male circumcision was. Attitudes to male circumcision were positive in this population despite its low prevalence. There were substantial inconsistencies in both self-reported and clinically assessed circumcision status. Methods are needed to improve self-report and training of clinicians in this setting.
    Tropical Medicine & International Health 07/2008; 13(8):1054-61. · 2.80 Impact Factor

Institutions

  • 2012
    • National Institute for Medical Research (NIMR)
      Dar es Salaam, Dar es Salaam Region, Tanzania
  • 2001–2012
    • London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
      • Faculty of Epidemiology and Population Health
      London, ENG, United Kingdom
    • Economic and Social Research Foundation, Tanzania
      Dar es Salaam, Dar es Salaam Region, Tanzania
  • 2009
    • Imperial College London
      • Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology
      London, ENG, United Kingdom
  • 2008
    • University College London
      London, ENG, United Kingdom
  • 2007
    • Medical Research Council / Uganda Virus Research Institute
      Entebbe, Wakiso District, Uganda