[Show abstract][Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: SUMMARY Annual periodicities of reported chickenpox cases have been observed in several countries. Of these, Japan has reported a two-peaked, bimodal annual cycle of reported chickenpox cases. This study investigated the possible underlying association of the bimodal cycle observed in the surveillance data of reported chickenpox cases with the meteorological factors of temperature, relative humidity and rainfall. A time-series analysis consisting of the maximum entropy method spectral analysis and the least squares method was applied to the chickenpox data and meteorological data of 47 prefectures in Japan. In all of the power spectral densities for the 47 prefectures, the spectral lines were observed at the frequency positions corresponding to the 1-year and 6-month cycles. The optimum least squares fitting (LSF) curves calculated with the 1-year and 6-month cycles explained the underlying variation of the chickenpox data. The LSF curves reproduced the bimodal and unimodal cycles that were clearly observed in northern and southern Japan, respectively. The data suggest that the second peaks in the bimodal cycles in the reported chickenpox cases in Japan occurred at a temperature of approximately 8·5 °C.
Epidemiology and Infection 01/2015; 143(12):1-13. DOI:10.1017/S095026881400363X · 2.54 Impact Factor
[Show abstract][Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: SUMMARY We investigated the seasonality of tuberculosis (TB) in Wuhan, China, to evaluate the increased risk of disease transmission during each season and to develop an effective TB control strategy. We applied spectral analysis to the weekly prevalence data of sputum smear positive (SSP) and sputum smear negative (SSN) pulmonary TB reported from 2006 to 2010. Cases of both SSP and SSN feature 1·0- and 0·5-year periodic modes. The least squares method was used to fit curves to the two periodic modes for SSP and SSN data. The curves demonstrated dominant peaks in spring similar to cases reported previously for other locations. Notably for SSP, dominant peaks were also observed in summer. The spring peaks of SSP and SSN were explained in terms of poorly ventilated and humid rooms and vitamin D deficiency. For the summer peaks of SSP, summer influenza epidemics in Wuhan may contribute to the increase in TB prevalence.
Epidemiology and Infection 12/2013; 142(10):1-13. DOI:10.1017/S0950268813003142 · 2.54 Impact Factor
[Show abstract][Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: Prevalence and molecular characteristics of community-acquired methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (CA-MRSA) were studied in Hokkaido, the main northern island of Japan. Among the 1,015 S. aureus isolates derived from clinical specimens of outpatients collected in 2009, methicillin resistance gene mecA was detected in 189 isolates (18.6%). The most frequent staphylococcal cassette chromosome mec (SCCmec) type in MRSA was II (83.1%), followed by IV (6.9%) and V (3.2%). MRSA with type II-SCCmec showed multiple drug resistance and harbored various toxin and virulence factor genes except for Panton-Valentine leucocidin (PVL) gene. These isolates were mostly classified into sequence type 5 (ST5) (or other STs in CC5) and coagulase genotype II and were thus genetically similar to hospital-acquired MRSA, which have been predominating in Japan (New York/Japan clone). PVL gene was detected in three MRSA strains belonging to ST6 (two strains) and ST59 (one strain), having type IVa- and Vt-SCCmec, respectively, and also in two methicillin-susceptible S. aureus ST121 and ST188. The arcA gene within the arginine catabolic mobile element (ACME) was detected in the two PVL-negative ST5 MRSA strains, which had type IIa- or V-SCCmec. The PVL gene-positive ST6 and ST59 CA-MRSA strains were susceptible to more antimicrobials and had less virulence factor genes than the PVL-negative ST5 MRSA, including the ACME-arcA-positive strains. In the present study, ST6 was identified as a lineage of PVL-positive CA-MRSA, the ACME-arcA was first detected in ST5 MRSA with type V-SCCmec, and ST59 Taiwanese CA-MRSA strain was isolated in Hokkaido for the first time. These findings suggest a potential spread of these emerging CA-MRSA clones in Japan.
[Show abstract][Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: Measles is regarded as a disease that can be eliminated by vaccination; however, disease epidemics still occur in Wuhan, China. This study explored the effect of measles control programmes on the periodic structure of disease epidemics in Wuhan. The monthly reported measles incidence from 1953 to 2008 was divided into pre-vaccine range (1953-1965) and post-vaccine range (1966-2008). For the incidence in each range, spectral analysis was conducted and power spectral density (PSD) was obtained. In PSD for the pre-vaccine range, the most dominant spectral line was observed at a 2·0-year period, as in the case of Japan. It was confirmed that spectral lines of periodic modes longer than a 1-year cycle of the incidence rates behave in response to the introduction of measles control programmes. The investigation of periodic structures of measles epidemics will contribute to effective measles control programmes in Wuhan.
Epidemiology and Infection 02/2011; 139(2):257-64. DOI:10.1017/S0950268810001056 · 2.54 Impact Factor
[Show abstract][Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: Much effort has been expended on interpreting the mechanism of influenza epidemics, so as to better predict them. In addition to the obvious annual cycle of influenza epidemics, longer-term incidence patterns are present. These so-called interepidemic periods have long been a focus of epidemiology. However, there has been less investigation of the interepidemic period of influenza epidemics. In the present study, we used spectral analysis of influenza morbidity records to indentify the interepidemic period of influenza epidemics in Japan.
We used time series data of the monthly incidence of influenza in Japan from January 1948 through December 1998. To evaluate the incidence data, we conducted maximum entropy method (MEM) spectral analysis, which is useful in investigating the periodicities of shorter time series, such as that of the incidence data used in the present study. We also conducted a segment time series analysis and obtained a 3-dimensional spectral array.
Based on the results of power spectral density (PSD) obtained from MEM spectral analysis, we identified 3 periodic modes as the interepidemic periods of the incidence data. Segment time series analysis revealed that the amount of amplitude of the interepidemic periods increased during the occurrence of influenza pandemics and decreased when vaccine programs were introduced.
The findings suggest that the temporal behavior of the interepidemic periods of influenza epidemics is correlated with the magnitude of cross-reactive immune responses.
Journal of Epidemiology 11/2010; 21(1):21-9. DOI:10.2188/jea.JE20090162 · 3.02 Impact Factor
[Show abstract][Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: Sumi A, Hemilä H, Mise K, Kobayashi N. Predicting the incidence of human campylobacteriosis in Finland with time series analysis. APMIS 2009; 117: 614–22.
Human campylobacteriosis is a common bacterial cause of gastrointestinal infections. In this study, we tested whether spectral analysis based on the maximum entropy method (MEM) is useful in predicting the incidence of campylobacteriosis in five provinces in Finland, which has been accumulating good quality incidence data under the surveillance program for water- and food-borne infections. On the basis of the spectral analysis, we identified the periodic modes explaining the underlying variations of the incidence data in the years 2000–2005. The optimum least squares fitting (LSF) curve calculated by using the periodic modes reproduced the underlying variation of the incidence data. We extrapolated the LSF curve to the years 2006 and 2007 and predicted the incidence of campylobacteriosis. Our study suggests that MEM spectral analysis allows us to model temporal variations of the disease incidence with multiple periodic modes much more effectively than using the Fourier model, which has been previously used for modeling seasonally varying incidence data.
[Show abstract][Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: We examined the usefulness of spectral analysis for investigating quantitatively the spatial pattern of pathologic tissue. To interpret the results obtained from real tissue, we constructed a two-dimensional spatial model of the tissue. Spectral analysis was applied to the spatial series data, which were obtained from the real tissue and model. From the results of spectral analysis, spatial patterns of the tissue and model were characterized quantitatively in reference to the frequencies and powers of the spectral peaks in power spectral densities (PSDs). The results for the model were essentially consistent with those for the tissue. It was concluded that the model was capable of adequately explaining the spatial pattern of the tissue. It is anticipated that spectral analysis will become a useful tool for characterizing the spatial pattern of the tissue quantitatively, resulting in an automated first screening of pathological specimens.
Japanese Journal of Applied Physics 01/2009; 48(1). DOI:10.1143/JJAP.48.017001 · 1.13 Impact Factor
[Show abstract][Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: Staphylocoagulase (SC) is a major phenotypic determinant of Staphylococcus aureus. Serotype of SC (coagulase type) is used as an epidemiological marker and 10 types (I-X) have been discriminated so far. To clarify genetic diversity of SC within a single and among different serotype(s), we determined approximately 1500 bp-nucleotide sequences of SC gene encoding D1, D2, and central regions (N-terminal half and central regions of SC; SC(NC)) for a total of 33 S. aureus strains comprising two to three strains from individual coagulase types (I-VIII, X) and 10 strains which were not determined as previously known SC serotypes (ND-strains). Amino acid sequence identities of SC(NC) among strains with a single coagulase type of II, III, IV, V, VI and X were extremely high (more than 99%), whereas lower identity (56-87%) was observed among different types. In contrast, within a single coagulase type of I, VII, or VIII, sequence divergence was found (lowest identity; 82%). SC(NC) sequences from the ND-strains were discriminated into two genetic groups with an identity of 71% to each other (tentatively assigned to genotypes [XI] and [XII]), and exhibited less than 86% sequence identities to those of most known coagulase types. All the types [XI] and [XII] strains were methicillin susceptible and belonged to different sequence types from those of coagulase types I-X strains reported so far by multilocus sequence typing. These findings indicated genetic heterogeneity of SC in coagulase types I, VII, and VIII strains, and the presence of two novel SC genotypes related to antigenicity of SC serotypes.
Microbiology and Immunology 08/2008; 52(7):334-48. DOI:10.1111/j.1348-0421.2008.00045.x · 1.24 Impact Factor
[Show abstract][Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: The human group B rotavirus is a causative agent of severe adult diarrhea. In this study, we analyzed the NSP4 structure of a group B rotavirus strain, CAL-1, and determined whether enterotoxin activity was present in CAL-1 NSP4. CAL-1 NSP4 was comprised of 219 amino acids which was longer than group A and C rotavirus NSP4, and the primary structures of their sequences differed considerably. However, CAL-1 NSP4 had an enterotoxin-like sequence (residues 106-127) that was only 27% identical to the enterotoxin region of NSP4 of KUN (a group A rotavirus strain) at residues 114-135. Interestingly, both of the synthetic peptides, one (residues 99-128) containing the enterotoxin-like sequence and the other (residues 191-219) containing 29 C-terminal amino acids of CAL-1 NSP4, induced diarrhea in 5.5-day-old mice, but not in 17.5-day-old mice, when administered parenterally. Thus, rotavirus "enterotoxin" sequences could be considerably divergent.
Archives of Virology 02/2006; 151(1):173-82. DOI:10.1007/s00705-005-0616-8 · 2.39 Impact Factor
[Show abstract][Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: Group B rotaviruses detected in Bangladesh in 2000 and 2001 were analyzed genetically to clarify relatedness to human group B rotaviruses reported previously in China and India, and to animal group B rotaviruses. VP7 gene sequences of the Bangladeshi group B rotaviruses (Bang373, Bang544, Bang334, and Bang402) were almost identical to each other and also showed high sequence identity to the Indian strain CAL-1 (98%) and Chinese strain adult diarrhea rotavirus (ADRV) (92%), while identities to bovine and murine viruses were considerably low (60-63%). Other genes of Bang373 and Bang544 encoding VP2, VP4, VP6, and NSP1 through NSP5 also showed much higher sequence identities to those of CAL-1 (97.7-99.4%) than to those of ADRV (89.9-93.9%). Characterization of nucleotide substitutions among Bang373, CAL-1, and ADRV suggested that all the gene segments might have evolved neutrally at similar mutation rates, while some of the gene segments (e.g., VP2 gene) were suggested to be more conserved than others. In conclusion, group B rotaviruses detected in Bangladesh represented by Bang373 and the Indian virus CAL-1 were considered as virtually identical viruses which are distinct genetically from ADRV, and it was suggested that Bang373 (CAL-1)-like group B rotavirus (Bengali strains) might be distributed primarily in an area around the Bay of Bengal.
Journal of Medical Virology 01/2004; 72(1):149-55. DOI:10.1002/jmv.10546 · 2.35 Impact Factor
[Show abstract][Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: The VP7 and VP4 genes of two human group A rotavirus strains Mc323 and Mc345 with unique serologic and genomic properties, and isolated in Chiang Mai, Thailand, in 1989 [Urasawa et al. (1992) Journal of Infectious Diseases 166:227-234] were further characterized. The nucleotide and deduced amino acid sequences of the VP7 genes allowed the classification of both strains as serotype G9. The VP4 genes of both strains are 2,359 nucleotides in length and encode a protein of 775 amino acids like in most human rotaviruses. A comparison of the VP4 amino acid sequence of strain Mc323 with those of strain Mc345 and 24 human and animal rotaviruses representing 20 distinct VP4 genotypes reported to date showed that VP4 of Mc323 and Mc345 belong to genotype 19 previously reported for porcine rotavirus [Burke et al. (1994) Journal of General Virology 75:2205-2212]. To investigate the serological type (P serotype) of these VP4s, six reassortant viruses each containing a distinct VP4 gene characteristic of human rotaviruses and the VP7 gene of porcine rotavirus strain Gottfried (G4) were prepared, and antisera to these reassortants produced in rabbits. In neutralization tests, the P serotype of Mc323 was clearly differentiated from the five major P serotypes reported previously for human rotaviruses, suggesting that Mc323 and Mc345 represent a new human rotavirus P serotype tentatively called P11.
Journal of Medical Virology 02/2000; 60(1):63-9. DOI:10.1002/(SICI)1096-9071(200001)60:13.3.CO;2-W · 2.35 Impact Factor
[Show abstract][Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: The VP7 and VP4 genome segments of human rotavirus strain Mc35 (Urasawa et al., J. Infect. Dis. 166, 227-234, 1992) were investigated. Analysis of its VP7 nucleotide and amino acid sequences confirmed that it belongs to G (or VP7) serotype 10; however, the nucleotide sequence homologies between Mc35 and the four G10 bovine strains examined were lower than those among the four G10 bovine strains. The VP4 nucleotide and amino acid sequences of Mc35 were distinct (66.1-68.8% nucleotide and 64.9-70.0% amino acid homologies) from those of previously reported human and animal rotavirus strains representing different P (or VP4) types except for the strain K8 VP4, which was designated as type 3 of human rotavirus VP4 by Gorziglia et al. (Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA., 87, 7155-7159, 1990). The VP4s of the K8 and Mc35 strains showed a relatively high degree of homology (77.6% nucleotide and 86.0% amino acid sequence homologies) and were presumed to represent subtypes of type 3 human rotavirus VP4 (type 3A (K8 VP4) and type 3B (Mc35 VP4)).