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Canadian Journal of Statistics 04/2009; 22(4):415 - 419. · 0.67 Impact Factor
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ABSTRACT: Recent studies suggest that persons with congestive heart failure (CHF) may be at higher risk for short-term effects of air pollution. This daily diary panel study in Montreal, Quebec, was carried out to determine whether oxygen saturation and pulse rate were associated with selected personal factors, weather conditions and air pollution.
Thirty-one subjects with CHF participated in this study in 2002 and 2003. Over a 2-month period, the investigators measured their oxygen saturation, pulse rate, weight and temperature each morning and recorded these and other data in a daily diary. Air pollution and weather conditions were obtained from fixed-site monitoring stations. The study made use of mixed regression models, adjusting for within-subject serial correlation and temporal trends, to determine the association between oxygen saturation and pulse rate and personal and environmental variables. Depending on the model, we accounted for the effects of a variety of personal variables (eg, body temperature, salt consumption) as well as nitrogen dioxide (NO2), ozone, maximum temperature and change in barometric pressure at 8:00 from the previous day.
In multivariable analyses, the study found that oxygen saturation was reduced when subjects reported that they were ill, consumed salt, or drank liquids on the previous day and had higher body temperatures on the concurrent day (only the latter was statistically significant). Relative humidity and decreased atmospheric pressure from the previous day were associated with oxygen saturation. In univariate analyses, there was negative associations with concentrations of fine particulates, ozone, and sulphur dioxide (SO2), but only SO2 was significant after adjustment for the effects of weather. For pulse rate, no associations were found for the personal variables and in univariate analyses the study found positive associations with NO(2), fine particulates (aerodynamic diameter of 2.5 microm or under, PM(2.5)), SO2, and maximum temperature, although only the latter two were significant after adjustment for environmental effects.
The findings from the present investigation suggest that personal and environmental conditions affect intermediate physiological parameters that may affect the health of CHF patients.
Occupational and environmental medicine 11/2008; 65(10):659-66. · 3.64 Impact Factor
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ABSTRACT: In this article, nonlinear regression models for correlated count data are examined. Correlation within clusters is modelled by a multivariate Gaussian mixing process on the log-expectation scale. The regression parameters and the variance-covariance parameters of the mixing process are estimated using quasi-likelihood methods. An example involving temporal trends in hospital admissions for respiratory disease is used to illustrate the methods proposed.
Environmetrics 11/2006; 3(2):211 - 222. · 1.06 Impact Factor
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Epidemiology 10/2006; 17(6):S254. · 5.57 Impact Factor
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ABSTRACT: While a number of studies suggest that air pollution is associated with allergic rhinitis in children, findings among adults have been equivocal. The aim of this study was to examine the relationship between outdoor air pollution and physician visits for allergic rhinitis among individuals>or=65 years of age in Toronto, Canada.
Physician visits were identified by using data from the Ontario provincial health insurance plan that is made available to all residents. Our analyses are based on 52,691 physician visits for allergic rhinitis among individuals>or=65 years of age in the Toronto metropolitan area between 1995 and 2000. Generalized linear models were used to regress daily counts of physician visits against daily measures of gaseous and particulate components of air pollution after controlling for seasonality, potential confounders (temperature, relative humidity, aeroallergens), overdispersion and serial correlation.
A large number of comparisons were undertaken, with most showing no statistically significant associations between daily levels of air pollution and the number of physician visits for rhinitis. In contrast, an interquartile increase in the 10-day average of ragweed particles increased the mean number of daily rhinitis consultations by 6.4% (95% CI=0.7-12.4%).
Our findings suggest that outdoor air pollution is a poor predictor of physician visits for allergic rhinitis among the elderly.
Allergy 06/2006; 61(6):750-8. · 6.27 Impact Factor
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ABSTRACT: To assess the short term association between air pollution and mortality in different zones of an industrial city. An intra-urban study design is used to test the hypothesis that socioeconomic characteristics modify the acute health effects of ambient air pollution exposure.
The City of Hamilton, Canada, was divided into five zones based on proximity to fixed site air pollution monitors. Within each zone, daily counts of non-trauma mortality and air pollution estimates were combined. Generalised linear models (GLMs) were used to test mortality associations with sulphur dioxide (SO(2)) and with particulate air pollution measured by the coefficient of haze (CoH).
Increased mortality was associated with air pollution exposure in a citywide model and in intra-urban zones with lower socioeconomic characteristics. Low educational attainment and high manufacturing employment in the zones significantly and positively modified the acute mortality effects of air pollution exposure.
Three possible explanations are proposed for the observed effect modification by education and manufacturing: (1) those in manufacturing receive higher workplace exposures that combine with ambient exposures to produce larger health effects; (2) persons with lower education are less mobile and experience less exposure measurement error, which reduces bias toward the null; or (3) manufacturing and education proxy for many social variables representing material deprivation, and poor material conditions increase susceptibility to health risks from air pollution.
Journal of Epidemiology & Community Health 02/2004; 58(1):31-40. · 3.19 Impact Factor
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ABSTRACT: Assess associations between short-term exposure to gaseous pollutants and asthma hospitalisation among boys and girls 6 to12 years of age.
A bi-directional case-crossover analysis was used. Conditional logistic regression models were fitted to the data for boys and girls separately. Exposures averaged over periods ranging from one to seven days were used to assess the effects of gaseous pollutants on asthma hospitalisation. Estimated relative risks for asthma hospitalisation were calculated for an incremental exposure corresponding to the interquartile range in pollutant levels, adjusted for daily weather conditions and concomitant exposure to particulate matter.
Toronto, Ontario, Canada.
A total of 7319 asthma hospitalisations for children 6 to 12 years of age (4629 for boys and 2690 for girls) in Toronto between 1981 and 1993.
A significant acute effect of carbon monoxide on asthma hospitalisation was found in boys, and sulphur dioxide showed significant effects of prolonged exposure in girls. Nitrogen dioxide was positively associated with asthma admissions in both sexes. The lag time for certain gaseous pollutant effects seemed to be shorter in boys (around two to three days for carbon monoxide and nitrogen dioxide), as compared with girls (about six to seven days for sulphur dioxide and nitrogen dioxide). The effects of gaseous pollutants on asthma hospitalisation remained after adjustment of particulate matter. The data showed no association between ozone and asthma hospitalisation in children.
The study showed positive relations between gaseous pollutants (carbon monoxide, sulphur dioxide, and nitrogen dioxide) at comparatively low levels and asthma hospitalisation in children, using bi-directional case-crossover analyses. Though, the effects of certain specific gaseous pollutants were found to vary in boys and girls.
Journal of Epidemiology & Community Health 02/2003; 57(1):50-5. · 3.19 Impact Factor
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ABSTRACT: The authors investigated the association between daily variations in ozone and cause-specific mortality. Fixed-site air pollution monitors in Montreal, Quebec, provided daily mean levels of ozone, particles, and other gaseous pollutants. Information on the date and underlying cause of death was obtained for residents of Montreal who died in the city between 1984 and 1993. The authors regressed the logarithm of daily counts of cause-specific mortality on mean levels of ozone, after accounting for seasonal and subseasonal fluctuations in the mortality time series, non-Poisson dispersion, and weather variables. The effect of ozone on mortality was generally higher in the warm season and among persons aged 65 years or over. For an increase in the 3-day running mean concentration of ozone of 21.3 microg/m(3), the percentage of increase in daily deaths in the warm season was the following: nonaccidental deaths, 3.3% (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.7, 5.0); cancer, 3.9% (95% CI: 1.0, 6.91); cardiovascular diseases, 2.5% (95% CI: 0.2, 5.0); and respiratory diseases, 6.6% (95% CI: 1.8, 11.8). These results were independent of the effects of other pollutants and were consistent with a log-linear response function.
American Journal of Epidemiology 12/2001; 154(9):817-26. · 5.22 Impact Factor
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R Vincent,
P Kumarathasan,
P Goegan,
S G Bjarnason,
J Guénette,
D Bérubé,
I Y Adamson,
S Desjardins, R T Burnett,
F J Miller,
B Battistini
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ABSTRACT: Wistar rats were exposed for 4 hours by nose-only inhalation to clean air, resuspended Ottawa ambient particles (EHC-93*, 48 mg/m3), the water-leached particles (EHC-93L, 49 mg/m3), diesel soot (5 mg/m3), or carbon black (5 mg/m3). Continuous data for physiologic endpoints (heart rate, blood pressure, body temperature, animal's activity) were captured by telemetry before and after exposure. Blood was sampled from jugular cannulas 1 to 3 days before exposure and at 2 and 24 hours after exposure, and by heart puncture on termination at 32 hours (histology group) or 48 hours (telemetry group) after exposure. Lung injury was assessed by 3H-thymidine autoradiography after the rats were killed. We measured endothelins (plasma ET-1, big ET-1, ET-2, ET-3) to assess the vasopressor components; nitric oxide (NO)-related metabolites (blood nitrate, nitrite, nitrosyl compounds, and plasma 3-nitrotyrosine) to assess the vasodilator components; and catecholamines (epinephrine, norepinephrine, L-DOPA, dopamine) and oxidative stressors (m- and o-tyrosine) for additional insight into possible stress components. Lung cell labeling was uniformly low in all treatment groups, which indicates an absence of acute lung injury. Inhalation of EHC-93 caused statistically significant elevations (P < 0.05) of blood pressure on day 2 after exposure, plasma ET-1 at 32 hours after exposure, and ET-3 at 2, 32, and 48 hours after exposure. In contrast, the modified EHC-93L particles, from which soluble components had been extracted, did not affect blood pressure. The EHC-93L particles caused early elevation (P < 0.05) of the plasma levels of ET-1, ET-2, and ET-3 at 2 hours after exposure, but the endothelins returned to basal levels 32 hours after exposure. Exposure to diesel soot, but not carbon black, caused an elevation (P < 0.05) of plasma ET-3 at 36 hours after exposure; blood pressure was not affected by diesel soot. Our results indicate that inhalation of the urban particles EHC-93 can affect blood levels of ET-1 and ET-3 and cause a vasopressor response in Wistar rats without causing acute lung injury. Furthermore, the potency of the particles to influence hemodynamic changes appears to be modified by removing polar organic compounds and soluble elements. Because the pathophysiologic significance of elevated endothelins has been clinically established in humans, our observations suggest a novel mechanism by which inhaled particles may cause cardiovascular effects. These findings in rats contribute to the weight of evidence in favor of a biologically plausible epidemiologic association between ambient particulate matter and cardiovascular morbidity and mortality in human populations.
Research report (Health Effects Institute) 11/2001;
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M S Goldberg, R T Burnett,
J C Bailar,
R Tamblyn,
P Ernst,
K Flegel,
J Brook,
Y Bonvalot,
R Singh,
M F Valois,
R Vincent
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ABSTRACT: This study was undertaken to identify subgroups of the population susceptible to the effects of ambient air particles. Fixed-site air pollution monitors in Montreal, Quebec, Canada, provided daily mean levels of various measures of particulates and gaseous pollutants. Total sulfates were also measured daily (1986-1993) at a monitoring station 150 km southeast of the city (Sutton, Quebec, Canada). We used coefficient of haze (COH), extinction coefficient, and Sutton sulfates to predict fine particles and sulfates from a fine particles model for days that were missing. We used the universal Quebec medicare system to obtain billings and prescriptions for each Montreal resident who died in the city from 1984 to 1993. These data were then used to define cardiovascular and respiratory conditions that subjects had before death. Using standard Poisson regression time-series analyses, we estimated the association between daily nonaccidental mortality and daily concentrations of particles in the ambient air among persons with cardiovascular and respiratory conditions diagnosed before death. We found no persuasive evidence that daily mortality increased when ambient air particles were elevated for subgroups of persons with chronic upper respiratory diseases, airways disease, cerebrovascular diseases, acute coronary artery disease, and hypertension. However, we found that daily mortality increased linearly as concentrations of particles increased for persons who had acute lower respiratory diseases, chronic coronary artery diseases (especially in the elderly), and congestive heart failure. For this latter set of conditions, the mean percent increase in daily mortality (MPC) for an increase in the COH across its interquartile range (18.5 COH units per 327.8 linear meters), averaged over the day of death and the 2 preceding days, was MPC = 5.09% [95% confidence interval (CI) 2.47-7.79%], MPC = 2.62 (95% CI 0.53-4.75%), and MPC = 4.99 (95% CI 2.44-7.60%), respectively. Adjustments for gaseous pollutants generally attenuated these associations, although the general pattern of increased daily mortality remained. In addition, there appeared to be a stronger association in the summer season. The positive associations found for persons who had acute lower respiratory diseases and congestive heart failure are consistent with some prevailing hypotheses and may also be consistent with recent toxicologic data implicating endothelins. Further epidemiologic studies are required to confirm these findings.
Environmental Health Perspectives 09/2001; 109 Suppl 4:487-94. · 7.04 Impact Factor
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ABSTRACT: This study was undertaken to determine whether variations in concentrations of particles in the ambient air of Montreal, Quebec, during the period 1984 to 1993, were associated with daily variations in nonaccidental mortality. Fixed-site air pollution monitors in Montreal provided daily mean levels of various measures of particulates and gaseous pollutants. Total sulfates were also measured daily (1986-1993) at a monitoring station 150 km southeast of the city (Sutton, Quebec). We estimated associations for PM(2.5), PM(10), total suspended particles, coefficient of haze (COH), extinction coefficient, and sulfates. We used coefficient of haze, extinction coefficient, and Sutton sulfates to predict fine particles and sulfates for days that were missing. To estimate the associations between nonaccidental mortality and ambient air particles, we regressed the logarithm of daily counts of nonaccidental mortality on the daily mean levels for the above measures of particulates, after accounting for seasonal and subseasonal fluctuations in the mortality time series, non-Poisson dispersion, weather variables, and gaseous pollutants. There were 140,939 residents of Montreal who died during the study period. We found evidence of associations between daily nonaccidental deaths and most measures of particulate air pollution. For example, the mean percentage increase (MPC) for an increase of total suspended particles of 28.57 microg/m(3) (interquartile range, IQ), evaluated at lag 0 days, was 1.86% (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.00-3.76%), and for an increase of coefficient of haze (IQ=18.5 COH units per 327.8 linear m) the MPC was 1.44% (95% CI: 0.75-2.14%). These results are similar to findings from other studies (the mean percentage increase in nonaccidental deaths for a 100 microg/m(3) increase in daily total suspended particles was 6.7%). We also found increases for fine particles and for inhalable particles, but the confidence intervals included unity. All measures of sulfates showed increased daily mortality; e.g., the MPC for sulfates from fine particles (IQ=3.51 microg/m(3)) was 1.86% (95% CI: 0.40-3.35%). We generally found higher excesses in daily mortality for persons 65 years of age and for exposures averaged across lags 0, 1, and 2 days. The slope of the association between daily mortality and ambient air particles in Montreal, which has lower levels of pollution than most major urban centers, is similar to that reported in most other industrialized cities. This study therefore provides further evidence that the association is linear and that any threshold effect, should it exist, would be found at lower levels of air pollution than those found in Montreal.
Environmental Research 06/2001; 86(1):12-25. · 3.40 Impact Factor
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ABSTRACT: This study was undertaken to determine whether variations in concentrations of particulates in the ambient air of Montreal, Quebec, during the period 1984 to 1993, were associated with daily variations in cause-specific daily mortality. Fixed-site air pollution monitors in Montreal provided daily mean levels of various measures of particles and gaseous pollutants. Total sulfate was also measured daily (1986-1993) at a monitoring station 150 km southeast of the city (Sutton, Quebec). We used coefficient of haze (COH), extinction coefficient, and sulfate from the Sutton station to predict fine particles and sulfate from fine particles for days that were missing. We estimated associations between cause-specific mortality and PM(2.5), PM(10), predicted fine particles and fine sulfate particles, total suspended particles, coefficient of haze, extinction coefficient, and total sulfate measured at the Sutton station. We selected a set of underlying causes of death, as recorded on the death certificates, as the endpoint and then regressed the logarithm of daily counts of cause-specific mortality on the daily mean levels for the above measures of particulates, after accounting for seasonal and subseasonal fluctuations in the mortality time series, non-Poisson dispersion, weather variables, and gaseous pollutants. We found positive and statistically significant associations between the daily measures of ambient particle mass and sulfate mass and the deaths from respiratory diseases and diabetes. The mean percentage change in daily mortality (MPC), evaluated at the interquartile range for pollutants averaged over the day of death and the preceding 2 days, for deaths from respiratory diseases was MPC(COH)=6.90% (95% CI: 3.69-10.21%), MPC(Predicted PM2.5)= 9.03% (95% CI: 5.83- 12.33%), and MPC(Sutton sulfate)=4.64% (95% CI: 2.46-6.86%). For diabetes, the corresponding estimates were MPC(COH)=7.50% (95% CI: 1.96-13.34%), MPC(Predicted PM2.5)=7.59% (95% CI: 2.36-13.09%), and MPC(Sutton sulfate)=4.48% (95% CI: 1.08-7.99%). Among individuals older than 65 years at time of death, we found consistent associations across our metrics of particles for neoplasms and coronary artery diseases. Associations with sulfate mass were also found among elderly persons who died of cardiovascular diseases and of lung cancer. These associations were consistent with linear relationships. The associations found for respiratory diseases and for cardiovascular diseases, especially in the elderly, are in line with some of the current hypotheses regarding mechanisms by which ambient particles may increase daily mortality. The positive associations found for cancer and for diabetes may be understood through a general hypothesis proposed by Frank and Tankersley, who suggested that persons in failing health may be at higher risk for external insults through the failure of regulating physiological set points. The association with diabetes may be interpreted in light of recent toxicological findings that inhalation of urban particles in animals increases blood pressure and plasmatic levels of endothelins that enhance vasoconstriction and alter electrophysiology. Further research to confirm these findings and to determine whether they are causal is warranted.
Environmental Research 06/2001; 86(1):26-36. · 3.40 Impact Factor
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ABSTRACT: To clarify the health effects of ozone exposure in young children, the authors studied the association between air pollution and hospital admissions for acute respiratory problems in children less than 2 years of age during the 15-year period from 1980 to 1994 in Toronto, Canada. The daily time series of admissions was adjusted for the influences of day of the week, season, and weather. A 35% (95% confidence interval: 19%, 52%) increase in the daily hospitalization rate for respiratory problems was associated with a 5-day moving average of the daily 1-hour maximum ozone concentration of 45 parts per billion, the May-August average value. The ozone effect persisted after adjustment for other ambient air pollutants or weather variables. Ozone was not associated with hospital admissions during the September-April period. Ambient ozone levels in the summertime should be considered a risk factor for respiratory problems in children less than 2 years of age.
American Journal of Epidemiology 04/2001; 153(5):444-52. · 5.22 Impact Factor
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ABSTRACT: The impact of ambient aeroallergens on morbidity from childhood asthma is largely unknown. To address this issue, we studied the association between daily emergency department visits for asthma to a children's hospital, and daily concentrations of both pollen grains and fungal spores during a 5-yr period between 1993 and 1997. Air pollution and meteorological data accounted for in the analyses included ozone, nitrogen dioxide, sulfur dioxide, sulfates, temperature, barometric pressure, and relative humidity. The daily number of asthma visits ranged from 0 to 36 per day with an average of 7.5. Fungal spores, but not pollen grains, were associated with visits (p < 0.05). The percentage increase associated with each group, independent of the others, was 1.9% (SE 0.9) for deuteromycetes, 4.1% (1.6) for basidiomycetes, 2.8% (1.0) for ascomycetes, and 8.8% for these spores combined. In summary, fungal spores account for a significant proportion of the asthma exacerbations in children that prompt an emergency department visit.
American Journal of Respiratory and Critical Care Medicine 12/2000; 162(6):2087-90. · 11.08 Impact Factor
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ABSTRACT: This study was undertaken in order to shed light on which groups of the general population may be susceptible to the effects of ambient particles. The objectives of the study were (1) to determine whether concentrations of particles in the ambient air of Montreal, Quebec, were associated with daily all-cause and cause-specific mortality in the period 1984 to 1993, and (2) to determine whether groups of the population had higher than average risks of death from exposure to particles. From the network of fixed-site air pollution monitors in Montreal we obtained daily mean levels of various measures of particles, gaseous pollutants, and weather variables measured at Dorval International Airport. We also used measurements of sulfate from an acid rain monitoring station 150 km southeast of the city (Sutton, Quebec). We estimated associations for particulate matter (PM) with an aerodynamic diameter of 10 microns or smaller (PM10), or 2.5 microns or smaller (PM2.5), total suspended particles (TSP), coefficient of haze (COH), an extinction coefficient, and sulfate. Because substantial data for fine particles were missing, we developed a regression model to predict PM2.5 and to predict sulfate from PM2.5. In the main body of the report, we present results for COH, predicted PM2.5, and sulfate. Detailed results for all pollutants are included in Appendices H through O, which are available on request from Health Effects Institute and from the HEI web site at www.healtheffects.org. To address the first objective, we made use of the underlying causes of death among all 140,939 residents of Montreal who died between 1984 and 1993. We regressed the logarithm of daily counts of cause-specific mortality on the daily mean levels for a variety of measures of particles, accounting for seasonal and subseasonal fluctuations in the mortality time series, overdispersion, and weather factors. To address the second objective, we developed algorithms to define conditions that subjects had prior to death, with the focus on cardiopulmonary diseases. These algorithms were based on information retained on the databases of the universal Quebec Health Insurance Plan (QHIP). The databases include records of all procedures (e.g., type of surgery), physician visits, and consultations carried out by all physicians in Quebec. For persons > or = 65 years and for all recipients of social assistance the prescription database contains records of all pharmaceuticals dispensed (type of medication, dose, quantity). For each group of conditions defined, we used the same statistical model that was used in the analyses of all nonaccidental causes of death. In the analyses of cause-specific mortality, we found evidence of associations for all nonaccidental causes of death and specific causes of death--cancer, coronary artery disease, respiratory diseases, and diabetes--that were consistent across most metrics of ambient air particle concentrations, evaluated as the 3-day mean of particle concentrations measured on the day of death (lag 0) and on each of the two days before death (lag 1, lag 2). Associations for all cardiovascular diseases combined were found only with sulfate. As well, we generally found increased daily mortality for persons 65 years of age and over. The results for all nonaccidental causes of death are similar to findings from other studies; the mean percent increase in mortality for a 100 micrograms/m3 increase in daily TSP at lag 0 was 6.7%. In the analyses of the groups defined from the QHIP data, there was little evidence of associations with air pollutants among persons who before death were classified as having acute or chronic upper respiratory diseases, airways diseases, hypertension, acute coronary artery diseases, and cerebrovascular diseases. On the other hand, we found consistent increases across most types of ambient particles for persons who had cancer, acute lower respiratory diseases, any form of cardiovascular disease, chronic coronary artery diseases, and congestive heart failure. As well, we found an association for individuals who did not have any cardiovascular disease, lower respiratory diseases, and cancer. This latter group consisted of persons who had no interactions with the health care system one year before death (12%) and individuals with a wide variety of potentially fatal diseases (52%), including neurological conditions (12%), diabetes (8%), cardiac dysrhythmias (8%), dementia (6%), organic psychotic disorders (6%), and anemias (4%). As statistical power was reduced in the analyses presented above, differences between groups (e.g., < 65 and > or = 65 year age groups) were not usually statistically significant. The association with diabetes has not been reported previously, and this needs to be replicated in other studies. (ABSTRACT TRUNCATED)
Research report (Health Effects Institute) 11/2000;
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ABSTRACT: Indices of atmospheric particulate matter (PM) have been reported to be associated with daily mortality and morbidity in a large number of recent time-series studies. However, the question remains as to which components of PM are responsible for the reported associations. Multiple PM components rarely are measured simultaneously. To investigate PM effects on mortality and morbidity, we used the multiple PM components measured in Windsor, Ontario, at a site only a few miles from downtown Detroit, Michigan. This study focused primarily on two study periods in which multiple PM components were measured in Windsor: 1985 to 1990, when levels of total suspended particles (TSP), sulfate from TSP (TSP-SO4(2-)), PM less than 10 microns in diameter (PM10), and nonthoracic TSP (TSP-PM10) were measured throughout the year; and 1992 to 1994, when data on PM10, PM2.5 (PM less than 2.5 microns in diameter), PM10-2.5 (PM10 minus PM2.5), particle acidity (H+), and artifact-free sulfates (SO4(2-)) were available for mostly summer months. Mortality data were analyzed for the 1985 to 1990 study period, and data on both mortality and hospital admissions of elderly patients were analyzed for the 1992 through 1994 period. Poisson regressions were used to estimate the effects of these PM components and gaseous criteria pollutants on mortality (nonaccidental, circulatory, respiratory, and nonaccidental without circulatory and respiratory) and on hospital admissions of elderly patients (for pneumonia, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease [COPD], ischemic heart disease, dysrhythmias, heart failure, and stroke), adjusting for temperature and humidity, trends and seasonal cycles, and day of the week. Both PM10 and TSP were associated significantly with respiratory mortality for the 1985 to 1990 period, with similar relative risk (RR) estimates for PM10 (RR = 1.123; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.0361-1.218) and TSP (RR = 1.109; 95% CI 1.028-1.197), per 5th to 95th percentile increment. The effect-size estimates for TSP-SO4(2-) and TSP-PM10 were smaller and less significant. In two-pollutant models, simultaneous inclusion of gaseous pollutants with PM10 or TSP reduced PM coefficients by 0 to 34%. The effect-size estimates for total mortality, circulatory mortality, and total minus circulatory and respiratory mortality were less than those for respiratory mortality. Ozone (O3) and nitrogen dioxide (NO2) also were associated significantly with total and circulatory mortality, but a simultaneous consideration of these pollutants with PM10 reduced PM10 coefficients only slightly, or even increased them. In these results, pollution coefficients often were positive at multiple lag days (0-day through 3-day lags were examined), but for PM indices, 1-day lag coefficients were most significant. However, when all combinations of multiple-day average exposures were examined, for cases in which multiple lag days were positive, the choice of single-day or multiple-day average exposure did not appreciably change the estimated effect sizes. An examination of temporal correlation showed that the order of spatial uniformity as expressed by the median site-to-site correlation was O3 (0.83), PM10 (0.78), TSP (0.71), NO2 (0.70), carbon monoxide (CO) (0.50), and sulfur dioxide (SO2) (0.49), which suggests less exposure error for O3 and PM10 than for the other measured pollutants. Thus, these results suggest that spatially homogeneous pollution indices show higher associations with measured health outcomes.
Research report (Health Effects Institute) 09/2000;
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ABSTRACT: A component of particulate matter (PM) air pollution that may provide one biologically plausible pathway for the observed PM air pollution-health effect associations is aerosol acidity (H(+)). An increasing number of observational studies have demonstrated associations between H(+) and increased adverse health effects in the United States and abroad. Although studies have shown significant H(+) associations with increased morbidity in the United States, similar associations have yet to be shown with daily mortality. We considered a 2.5-year record of daily H(+) and sulfate measurements (May 1988-October 1990) collected in the Buffalo, New York, region in a time-series analysis of respiratory, circulatory, and total daily mortality and hospital admissions. Other copollutants considered included particulate matter [less than/equal to] 10 microm in aerodynamic diameter, coefficient of haze, ozone, carbon monoxide, sulfur dioxide, and nitrogen dioxide. Various modeling techniques were applied to control for confounding of effect estimates due to seasonality, weather, and day-of-week effects. We found multiple significant pollutant-health effect associations--most strongly between SO(4)(2-) and respiratory hospital admissions (as indicated by its t-statistic). Additionally, H(+) and SO(4)(2-) demonstrated the most coherent associations with both respiratory hospital admissions [H(+): relative risk (RR) = 1. 31; 95% confidence interval (CI), 1.14-1.51; and SO(4)(2-): RR = 1. 18, CI, 1.09-1.28] and respiratory mortality (H(+): RR = 1.55, CI, 1. 09-2.20; and SO(4)(2-): RR = 1.24, CI, 1.01-1.52). Thus, acidic sulfate aerosols represent a component of PM air pollution that may contribute to the previously noted adverse effects of PM mass on human health, and the associations demonstrated in this study support the need for further investigations into the potential health effects of acidic aerosols.
Environmental Health Perspectives 03/2000; 108(2):125-33. · 7.04 Impact Factor
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ABSTRACT: Although some consensus has emerged among the scientific and regulatory communities that the urban ambient atmospheric mix of combustion related pollutants is a determinant of population health, the relative toxicity of the chemical and physical components of this complex mixture remains unclear. Daily mortality rates and concurrent data on size-fractionated particulate mass and gaseous pollutants were obtained in eight of Canada's largest cities from 1986 to 1996 inclusive in order to examine the relative toxicity of the components of the mixture of ambient air pollutants to which Canadians are exposed. Positive and statistically significant associations were observed between daily variations in both gas- and particulate-phase pollution and daily fluctuations in mortality rates. The association between air pollution and mortality could not be explained by temporal variation in either mortality rates or weather factors. Fine particulate mass (less than 2.5 microns in average aerometric diameter) was a stronger predictor of mortality than coarse mass (between 2.5 and 10 microns). Size-fractionated particulate mass explained 28% of the total health effect of the mixture, with the remaining effects accounted for by the gases. Forty-seven elemental concentrations were obtained for the fine and coarse fraction using nondestructive x-ray fluorescence techniques. Sulfate concentrations were obtained by ion chromatography. Sulfate ion, iron, nickel, and zinc from the fine fraction were most strongly associated with mortality. The total effect of these four components was greater than that for fine mass alone, suggesting that the characteristics of the complex chemical mixture in the fine fraction may be a better predictor of mortality than mass alone. However, the variation in the effects of the constituents of the fine fraction between cities was greater than the variation in the mass effect, implying that there are additional toxic components of fine particulate matter not examined in this study whose concentrations and effects vary between locations. One of these components, carbon, represents half the mass of fine particulate matter. We recommend that measurements of elemental and organic carbon be undertaken in Canadian urban environments to examine their potential effects on human health.
Inhalation Toxicology 02/2000; 12 Suppl 4:15-39. · 1.92 Impact Factor
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ABSTRACT: The association between daily fluctuations in ambient particulate matter and daily variations in nonaccidental mortality have been extensively investigated. Although it is now widely recognized that such an association exists, the form of the concentration-response model is still in question. Linear, no threshold and linear threshold models have been most commonly examined. In this paper we considered methods to detect and estimate threshold concentrations using time series data of daily mortality rates and air pollution concentrations. Because exposure is measured with error, we also considered the influence of measurement error in distinguishing between these two completing model specifications. The methods were illustrated on a 15-year daily time series of nonaccidental mortality and particulate air pollution data in Toronto, Canada. Nonparametric smoothed representations of the association between mortality and air pollution were adequate to graphically distinguish between these two forms. Weighted nonlinear regression methods for relative risk models were adequate to give nearly unbiased estimates of threshold concentrations even under conditions of extreme exposure measurement error. The uncertainty in the threshold estimates increased with the degree of exposure error. Regression models incorporating threshold concentrations could be clearly distinguished from linear relative risk models in the presence of exposure measurement error. The assumption of a linear model given that a threshold model was the correct form usually resulted in overestimates in the number of averted premature deaths, except for low threshold concentrations and large measurement error.
Risk Analysis 07/1999; 19(3):487-96. · 2.37 Impact Factor
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ABSTRACT: The role of ambient levels of carbon monoxide (CO) in the exacerbation of heart problems in individuals with both cardiac and other diseases was examined by comparing daily variations in CO levels and daily fluctuations in nonaccidental mortality in metropolitan Toronto for the 15-year period 1980-1994. After adjusting the mortality time series for day-of-the-week effects, nonparametic smoothed functions of day of study and weather variables, statistically significant positive associations were observed between daily fluctuations in mortality and ambient levels of carbon monoxide, nitrogen dioxide, sulfur dioxide, coefficient of haze, total suspended particulate matter, sulfates, and estimated PM2.5 and PM10. However, the effects of this complex mixture of air pollutants could be almost completely explained by the levels of CO and total suspended particulates (TSP). Of the 40 daily nonaccidental deaths in metropolitan Toronto, 4.7% (95% confidence interval of 3.4%-6.1%) could be attributable to CO while TSP contributed an additional 1.0% (95% confidence interval of 0.2-1.9%), based on changes in CO and TSP equivalent to their average concentrations. Statistically significant positive associations were observed between CO and mortality in all seasons, age, and disease groupings examined. Carbon monoxide should be considered as a potential public health risk to urban populations at current ambient exposure levels.
Journal of the Air & Waste Management Association (1995) 09/1998; 48(8):689-700. · 1.52 Impact Factor
