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ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND & AIMS: Understanding the causes of death in people with Barrett's esophagus (BE) could guide-evidence based practice in the follow up of these patients. METHODS: We identified individuals diagnosed with BE in the UK's Clinical Practice Research Datalink and linked their information with that from England's Hospital Episode Statistics database. Eligible patients (n=8448) were matched with individuals without BE for age, sex, and general practice (controls, n=155,212). Causes of death were obtained from the UK's Office of National Statistics. Cox proportional hazard regression, excluding data from the first year of follow up, was used to estimate hazard ratios and cumulative mortality. Absolute excess risks were calculated by subtracting cause-specific mortality values of controls from those of patients with BE. RESULTS: Compared with the control population, patients with BE had increased risks of death from neoplasms and respiratory and digestive causes, but not from circulatory disorders. The annual mortality from esophageal cancer among patients with BE was 0.14%; 4.5% of deaths among these patients resulted from this cancer, leading to cumulative 10-year risk of almost 2%. Nonetheless, the largest single cause of death among patients with BE is ischemic heart disease (5.6 per 1000 patients); 168 patients with BE died from this cause-nearly 4-fold the number that died from esophageal cancer. CONCLUSIONS: Among patients with BE, about 2% will die of esophageal cancer within 10 years. However, patients with BE died more frequently from other causes, such as ischemic heart disease. Evidence-based strategies are available to prevent this disease, and might be more cost effective for reducing mortality among patients with BE.
Gastroenterology 04/2013; · 11.68 Impact Factor
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ABSTRACT: Key points Antepartum, we found that established risk factors only had a modest effect on rates of VTE.Postpartum, we found that among other factors, women with stillbirth or pre-term birth had high rates of VTE.
Blood 04/2013; · 9.90 Impact Factor
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ABSTRACT: Urinary Tract Infections (UTIs) occur more frequently in patients with Primary Biliary Cirrhosis (PBC). Previous studies have compared UTI occurrence in PBC and general population controls, however, it remains unclear if UTI is a feature of all chronic liver diseases (CLD)s, or is specific to PBC, or if this is a cause or consequence of PBC.
We aimed to determine if UTIs are more common after a diagnosis of PBC compared to general population and CLD controls.
A cohort study was conducted using the General Practice Research Database. We selected all cases of PBC plus 10 age- and sex-matched general population controls, and an unmatched group with other CLDs. We formed a Cox-proportional hazard model of time to first UTI following diagnosis.
Two hundred and forty-eight (24.6%) of PBC cases had a UTI event compared with 2127 (21.1%) of matched and 2131 (11.7%) of the unmatched CLD controls. Comparing PBC with matched controls showed an approximately 30% increased risk of UTI [hazard ratio (HR) 1.33 confidence interval (CI) 1.17-1.52]. Adjusting for diabetes, smoking and previous UTI reduced this (HR 1.25 CI 1.09-1.42). The Hazard Ratio comparing PBC with unmatched CLD controls was 2.00 (CI 1.76-2.28), but this became non-significant when adjusting for age, sex, diabetes, smoking and previous UTI 0.98 (0.86-1.12).
There is increased risk of UTI in PBC patients compared to general population controls, but not compared to CLD controls suggesting that this association is not specific to PBC after diagnosis.
Liver international: official journal of the International Association for the Study of the Liver 03/2013; 33(3):384-8. · 3.82 Impact Factor
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ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Accurate population-based data are needed on the incidence of venous thromboembolism (VTE) in patients with different cancers in order to inform guidelines on which hospitalised and ambulatory cancer patients should receive VTE prophylaxis. METHODS: We conducted a cohort study using data from the Clinical Practice Research Datalink, linked to Hospital Episode Statistics, Cancer Registry data and Office for National Statistics cause of death data. We determined the incidence rates (cases per 1000 person-years) of VTE separately for 24 cancer sites. To determine relative risk, incidence rates were compared to frequency-matched controls (by age) with no record of cancer. FINDINGS: We identified 83,203 cancer patients and 577,207 controls. New cases of VTE were diagnosed in 3352 cancer patients, and 6353 controls. The absolute rate of VTE in all cancers was 13.9 per 1000 person-years (95% confidence interval [CI] 13.4-14.4), corresponding to an age, sex and calendar year adjusted hazard-ratio of 4.7 (CI 4.5-4.9) between cancer patients and the general population. Rates varied greatly by cancer site (range; 98 (CI 80-119) in pancreatic cancer to 3.1 (CI 1.5-6.5) in thyroid cancer), age (range; 16.9 for patients over 80years to 4.9 for those under 30years) and time from diagnosis (range; 75 in the first three months to 8.4, >1year after diagnosis). INTERPRETATION: VTE is strongly linked to cancer, but the annual rate varies greatly by cancer site, proximity to diagnosis and age. Prophylaxis guidelines should take account of cancer site and such intervention should also be targeted towards the three months following diagnosis.
European journal of cancer (Oxford, England: 1990) 11/2012; · 4.12 Impact Factor
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ABSTRACT: Although maternal perinatal mental illnesses commonly present to and are primarily treated in general practice, few population-based estimates of this burden exist, and the most affected socioeconomic groups of pregnant women remain unclear.
To provide estimates of maternal depression, anxiety and serious mental illness (SMI) in UK general practice and quantify impacts of socioeconomic deprivation.
Cross-sectional analysis of prospectively recorded general practice records from a UK-wide database.
A pregnancy ending in live birth was randomly selected for every woman of childbearing age, 1994-2009. Prevalence and diagnostic overlap of mental illnesses were calculated using a combination of medical diagnoses and psychotropic drug prescriptions. Socioeconomic deprivation was assessed using multivariate logistic regression, adjusting for calendar period and pregnancy history.
Among 116 457 women, 5.1% presented with antenatal depression and 13.3% with postnatal depression. Equivalent figures for anxiety were 2.6% and 3.7% and for SMI 1/1000 and 2/1000 women. Socioeconomic deprivation increased the risk of all mental illnesses, although this was more marked in older women. Those age 35-45 years in the most deprived group had 2.63 times the odds of antenatal depression (95% confidence interval [CI] = 2.22 to 3.13) compared with the least deprived; in women aged 15-25 years the increased odds associated with deprivation was more modest (odds ratio = 1.35, 95% CI = 1.07 to 1.70). Similar patterns were found for anxiety and SMI.
Strong socioeconomic inequalities in perinatal mental illness persist with increasing maternal age. Targeting detection and effective interventions to high-risk women may reduce inequity and avoid substantial psychiatric morbidity.
British Journal of General Practice 10/2012; 62(603):671-8. · 1.83 Impact Factor
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ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Data on celiac disease (CD) and the risk of lung cancer are contradictory, with several studies suggesting a protective effect of CD. We investigated the future risk of lung cancer in individuals with biopsy-verified CD. METHODS: In this cohort study we used biopsy reports from 28 Swedish pathology departments to identify adults with CD who had been diagnosed between 1969 and 2008 (Marsh 3: villous atrophy). Each patient with CD (n=18,365) was matched with up to five reference individuals (n=90,962) from the general population matched for age, sex, calendar year and county. Lung cancer events were identified through the Swedish Cancer Register. Using Cox regression, we then calculated hazard ratios (HRs) for lung cancer. RESULTS: During follow-up there were 109 cases of lung cancer in patients with CD, and 470 among reference individuals. This corresponded to a HR of 1.07 (95% CI=0.87-1.32). The absolute risk of future lung cancer in patients with CD was 57/100,000 person-years (excess risk=4/100,000 person-years). In the first year after CD diagnosis, the HR for lung cancer was 2.01 (95% CI=1.08-3.76), decreasing to a HR of 1.00 beyond the first year of follow-up (95% CI=0.80-1.25). There was no difference in men or women with CD, and age at CD onset did not influence the risk of lung cancer. CONCLUSION: In a Swedish setting, patients with CD were at a similar risk of lung cancer to reference individuals from the general population.
Lung cancer (Amsterdam, Netherlands) 09/2012; · 3.14 Impact Factor
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ABSTRACT: People with cancer are known to be at increased risk of venous thromboembolism (VTE), and this risk is believed to vary according to cancer type, stage of disease, and treatment modality. Our purpose was to summarise the existing literature to determine precisely and accurately the absolute risk of VTE in cancer patients, stratified by malignancy site and background risk of VTE.
We searched the Medline and Embase databases from 1 January 1966 to 14 July 2011 to identify cohort studies comprising people diagnosed with one of eight specified cancer types or where participants were judged to be representative of all people with cancer. For each included study, the number of patients who developed clinically apparent VTE, and the total person-years of follow-up were extracted. Incidence rates of VTE were pooled across studies using the generic inverse variance method. In total, data from 38 individual studies were included. Among average-risk patients, the overall risk of VTE was estimated to be 13 per 1,000 person-years (95% CI, 7 to 23), with the highest risk among patients with cancers of the pancreas, brain, and lung. Among patients judged to be at high risk (due to metastatic disease or receipt of high-risk treatments), the risk of VTE was 68 per 1,000 person-years (95% CI, 48 to 96), with the highest risk among patients with brain cancer (200 per 1,000 person-years; 95% CI, 162 to 247). Our results need to be considered in light of high levels of heterogeneity, which exist due to differences in study population, outcome definition, and average duration of follow-up between studies.
VTE occurs in greater than 1% of cancer patients each year, but this varies widely by cancer type and time since diagnosis. The absolute VTE risks obtained from this review can aid in clinical decision-making about which people with cancer should receive anticoagulant prophylaxis and at what times.
PLoS Medicine 07/2012; 9(7):e1001275. · 16.27 Impact Factor
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ABSTRACT: Women taking antidepressant or anti-anxiety medications during early pregnancy have high risks of non-live pregnancy outcomes, although the contribution of the underlying illnesses to these risks remains unclear. We examined the impacts of antenatal depression and anxiety and of commonly prescribed treatments on the risks of non-live pregnancy outcomes.
We identified all pregnancies and their outcome (live birth, perinatal death, miscarriage or termination) among women aged 15-45 years between 1990 and 2009 from a large primary care database in the United Kingdom. Women were grouped according to whether they had no history of depression and anxiety, a diagnosis of such illness prior to pregnancy, illness during pregnancy and illness during pregnancy with use of medication (stratified by medication type). Multinomial logistic regression models were used to compare risks of non-live outcomes among these groups, adjusting for major socio-demographic and lifestyle characteristics.
Among 512,574 pregnancies in 331,414 women, those with antenatal drug exposure showed the greatest increased risks for all non-live pregnancy outcomes, relative to those with no history of depression or anxiety, although women with prior (but not currently medicated) illness also showed modest increased risks. Compared with un-medicated antenatal morbidity, there was weak evidence of an excess risk in women taking tricyclic antidepressants, and stronger evidence for other medications.
Women with depression or anxiety have higher risks of miscarriage, perinatal death and decisions to terminate a pregnancy if prescribed psychotropic medication during early pregnancy than if not. Although underlying disease severity could also play a role, avoiding or reducing use of these drugs during early pregnancy may be advisable.
PLoS ONE 01/2012; 7(8):e43462. · 4.09 Impact Factor
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ABSTRACT: Injuries in childhood are largely preventable yet an estimated 2,400 children die every day because of injury and violence. Despite this, the factors that contribute to injury occurrence have not been quantified at the population scale using primary care data. We used The Health Improvement Network (THIN) database to identify risk factors for thermal injury, fractures and poisoning in pre-school children in order to inform the optimal delivery of preventative strategies.
We used a matched, nested case-control study design. Cases were children under 5 with a first medically recorded injury, comprising 3,649 thermal injury cases, 4,050 fracture cases and 2,193 poisoning cases, matched on general practice to 94,620 control children.
Younger maternal age and higher birth order increased the odds of all injuries. Children's age of highest injury risk varied by injury type; compared with children under 1 year, thermal injuries were highest in those age 1-2 (OR = 2.43, 95%CI 2.23-2.65), poisonings in those age 2-3 (OR = 7.32, 95%CI 6.26-8.58) and fractures in those age 3-5 (OR = N 3.80, 95%CI 3.42-4.23). Increasing deprivation was an important modifiable risk factor for poisonings and thermal injuries (tests for trend p ≤ 0.001) as were hazardous/harmful alcohol consumption by a household adult (OR = 1.73, 95%CI 1.26-2.38 and OR = 1.39, 95%CI 1.07-1.81 respectively) and maternal diagnosis of depression (OR = 1.45, 95%CI 1.24-1.70 and OR = 1.16, 95%CI 1.02-1.32 respectively). Fracture was not associated with these factors, however, not living in single-adult household reduced the odds of fracture (OR = 0.88, 95%CI 0.82-0.95).
Maternal depression, hazardous/harmful adult alcohol consumption and socioeconomic deprivation represent important modifiable risk factors for thermal injury and poisoning but not fractures in preschool children. Since these risk factors can be ascertained from routine primary care records, pre-school children's frequent visits to primary care present an opportunity to reduce injury risk by implementing effective preventative interventions from existing national guidelines.
PLoS ONE 01/2012; 7(4):e35193. · 4.09 Impact Factor
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ABSTRACT: Knowledge of the absolute and relative risk of venous thromboembolism (VTE) in and around pregnancy would be crucial in identifying when to commence and cease thromboprophylaxis in women who would benefit from such intervention. We addressed this hypothesis using a large prospective primary care database from the United Kingdom, containing details on 972683 women aged 15-44years between 1987 and 2004. Risks of a first VTE during antepartum, postpartum and outside of pregnancy were compared using Poisson regression. The rate of VTE during the third trimester antepartum was six times higher than time outside pregnancy [Incidence Rate Ratio (IRR)=6·1; 95% confidence interval, 4·7-7·9]. In contrast, both the first (IRR=1·6) and second (IRR=2·1) trimesters conferred little increase in risk. The first 6weeks postpartum was associated with a 22-fold increase in risk, with the peak occurring in the first 3weeks. Increased age was found to be associated with VTE during postpartum and outside of pregnancy, but not during antepartum. Our findings of a notably raised risk of VTE persisting for 3 weeks postpartum and of a raised antepartum risk constrained to the third trimester have implications for modifying the current recommendations for VTE prophylaxis in pregnancy and the puerperium.
British Journal of Haematology 12/2011; 156(3):366-73. · 4.94 Impact Factor
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ABSTRACT: Women with celiac disease (CD) may be at decreased risk of female hormone-related cancers given the observed reduction in breast cancer seen in some cohorts. Using biopsy data from all 28 pathology departments in Sweden, we identified 17,852 women with CD who were diagnosed between 1969 and 2007. We used Cox regression model to estimate their risk of breast, endometrial and ovarian cancer and then compared them with 88,400 age- and sex-matched controls. The results indicate that individuals with CD were at a lower risk for all three outcomes: breast cancer (hazard ratio, HR = 0.85; 95% CI = 0.72-1.01), endometrial cancer (HR = 0.60; 95% CI =0.41-0.86) and ovarian cancer (HR = 0.89; 95% CI =0.59-1.34). This inverse relationship was strengthened when we excluded the first year of follow-up beyond CD diagnosis (breast: HR = 0.82; 95% CI =0.68-0.99; endometrial: HR = 0.58; 0.39-0.87; ovarian cancer: HR = 0.72; 0.45-1.15). In conclusion, CD seems to be inversely related not only to breast cancer but also to endometrial and ovarian cancer. Potential explanations include shared risk factors and early menopause.
International Journal of Cancer 09/2011; 131(3):E244-50. · 5.44 Impact Factor
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ABSTRACT: Laboratory findings demonstrate anticancer effects of angiotensin converting enzyme (ACE) inhibitors, including anti-angiogenic activity and inhibition of liver cancer growth in rodent models. Small studies in humans indicate potential for therapeutic anticancer effects and warrant further larger studies.
A case-control study using the General Practice Research Database examined whether prior ACE inhibitor usage was associated with a reduction in incidence of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).
Two hundred twenty-four HCC cases were identified, each matched to up to 10 controls by age, sex, and general practice. The data show that HCC is associated with a small, nonsignificant increase in prior use of ACE inhibitors (OR = 1.16, CI = 0.67-2.00). ACE inhibitor use was 7.1% (of 224) in cases and 5.9% (of 2,313) in controls. No significant effects were found when investigating the effect of dose and exposure duration.
We found no clear protective effect of ever or long term use of ACE inhibitors against the development of HCC. Our study suggests that it is unlikely that this class of drugs will be a clinically useful cancer chemoprevention therapy.
Cancer Causes and Control 09/2011; 22(12):1743-7. · 2.88 Impact Factor
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ABSTRACT: Primary Biliary Cirrhosis is known to be associated with Urinary Tract Infections (UTIs), but whether these precede or follow the liver disease is unclear. We have therefore attempted to determine whether UTIs are more common in people with Primary Biliary Cirrhosis (PBC) prior to their diagnosis.
We conducted a case control study in the General Practice Research Database. All cases of PBC first recorded at least one year after entry to the dataset were selected along with up to 10 controls matched for age, sex. A second unmatched control group who had Chronic Liver Diseases but not PBC were chosen. The main exposures studied were the occurrence of Urinary tract infections and pyelonephritis at least one or at least five years before diagnosis. We also performed an analysis restricted to those younger than 55 at diagnosis, as we hypothesized the relationship to be stronger in the younger age group.
PBC is associated with UTI prior to diagnosis, OR 1.50 (CI 1.26-1.78), which was similar 5 years prior to diagnosis and after adjusting for smoking. The strongest relationships were observed in pyelonephritis exposures five years before diagnosis in cases under 55 years: adjusted odds ratios were 2.60 (1.02-6.63) in comparison with matched general population controls and adjusted odds ratios were OR 2.45 (1.02-5.59) in the comparison with chronic liver disease controls.
We found that the association between urosepsis and PBC is specific to this disease and precedes the diagnosis of PBC in a manner not previously observed in human data. This is consistent with a causal relationship.
BMC Gastroenterology 08/2011; 11:95. · 2.42 Impact Factor
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ABSTRACT: Inequalities in health are well recognized in cardiovascular disease and cancer, but in comparison, we have minimal understanding for upper gastrointestinal bleeding. Since furthering our understanding of such inequality signposts preventable disease, we investigated in detail the association between upper gastrointestinal bleeding and socioeconomic status.
Population-based cohort study.
All English National Health Service hospitals.
English adult population, 1 January 2001 to 31 December 2007. EXPOSURE MEASURES: Deprivation scores defined according to quintiles of neighbourhood areas ranked by the Indices of Multiple Deprivation for England 2007.
Rates of all adult admissions coded with a primary diagnosis of upper gastrointestinal bleed were analysed by deprivation quintile and adjusted for age, sex, region and year using Poisson regression.
The annual hospitalization rate for non-variceal haemorrhage was 84.6 per 100,000 population (95% CI 83.5 to 84.1; n=237,145), and for variceal haemorrhage, it was 2.83 per 100,000 population (95% CI 2.87 to 2.99; n=8291). There was a twofold increase in the hospitalization rate ratio for non-variceal haemorrhage from the most deprived areas compared to the least deprived (2.00, 95% CI 1.98 to 2.03). The ratio for variceal haemorrhage was even more pronounced (2.49, 95% CI 2.32 to 2.67). Inequality increased over the study period (non-variceal p<0.0001, variceal p=0.0068), and adjusting for age and sex increased the disparity between deprived and affluent areas. Case fatality did not have a similar socioeconomic gradient.
Both variceal and non-variceal haemorrhage hospitalization rates increased with deprivation, and there was a similar gradient in all areas of the country and in all age bands. The existence of such a steep gradient suggests that there are opportunities to reduce hospitalizations down to the low rates seen in the most affluent, and thus, there is the potential to prevent almost 10,000 admissions and over 1000 deaths a year.
Gut 07/2011; 61(4):514-20. · 10.11 Impact Factor
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ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Earlier studies on stroke in celiac disease (CD) have been underpowered, but a recent study suggested that childhood CD is associated with a 10-fold increased risk of death from stroke, although it was based on small numbers. We examined the risk of stroke in patients with biopsy-verified CD. METHODS: We collected biopsy data from all 28 pathology departments in Sweden and identified 28,676 individuals with CD diagnosed between 1969 and 2007 (Marsh 3: villous atrophy). In the main analyses, we used Cox regression to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) for stroke in patients with CD compared with HRs for stroke in 141,806 sex- and age-matched controls. RESULTS: During follow-up, there were 785 first-stroke diagnoses in patients with CD and 2937 in reference individuals. Patients with CD were at increased risk of stroke (HR 1.10; 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.01-1.19). HRs were similar for ischemic stroke and brain hemorrhage and were not affected by adjustment for type 1 diabetes, rheumatoid arthritis, use of medication against hypertension, or dyslipidemia. The absolute risk of stroke in patients with CD was 267 per 100,000 person-years (excess risk 24/100,000). The highest risk estimates occurred in the first year, with virtually no increased risk after more than 5 years of follow-up after CD diagnosis. The HR for stroke in childhood CD was 1.10 (95% CI 0.37-3.22). CONCLUSIONS: Patients with CD are at only a small increased risk of stroke, which persists only for a brief period after diagnosis. CD does not seem to be a major risk factor for stroke.
Journal of stroke and cerebrovascular diseases: the official journal of National Stroke Association 07/2011;
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ABSTRACT: Inflammatory markers are established risk factors for atrial fibrillation (AF), but the role of autoimmune diseases is unknown. The aim of the study was to examine the association between coeliac disease (CD) and AF in a large cohort of patients with biopsy-verified CD.
We identified 28,637 patients with CD through biopsy reports (defined as Marsh 3: villous atrophy) from all pathology departments (n = 28) in Sweden. Biopsies had been performed between 1969 and 2008. Age- and sex-matched reference individuals (n = 141,731) were identified from the Swedish Total Population Register. Data on AF were obtained from the Swedish Hospital Discharge Register, the Hospital Outpatient Register, and the Cause of Death Register. Hazard ratios (HRs) for AF were estimated using Cox regression. In the CD cohort, 941 individuals developed AF (vs. 2918 reference individuals) during a median follow-up of 9 years. The corresponding adjusted HR for AF was 1.34 (95% CI = 1.24-1.44). The absolute risk of AF in CD was 321 of 100,000 person-years, with an excess risk of 81 of 100,000. A prior AF diagnosis was also associated with an increased risk of subsequent CD (odds ratio = 1.45, 95% CI = 1.31-1.62).
Atrial fibrillation is more common both before and after CD diagnosis in patients with CD though the excess risk is small. Potential explanations for the increased risk of AF in CD include chronic inflammation and shared risk factors, but ascertainment bias may also have contributed.
Coeliac disease affects 1-2% of the Western population. Our results indicate that patients with coeliac disease, verified by intestinal biopsy, are at increased risk of atrial fibrillation. This observation is consistent with previous findings that elevation of inflammatory markers predicts atrial fibrillation. Additional studies are needed to clarify the mechanistic link between atrial fibrillation and autoimmune diseases such as coeliac disease.
European Heart Journal 06/2011; 32(19):2430-7. · 10.48 Impact Factor
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ABSTRACT: To determine the risk of developing complicated colonic diverticular disease (CCDD) with prior episodes of acute diverticulitis and determine the mortality of the spectrum of CCDD.
Population-based cohort study.
Computerised records from the General Practice Research Database linked to Hospital Episode Statistics data from the UK.
Patients and controls registered in the General Practice Research Database from 1990 to 2007.
Mortality was calculated and Cox regression modelling used to provide adjusted HRs and 95% CI. Logistic regression was used to model the effect of prior acute diverticulitis on the development of complications.
2950 patients (1872 (63.5%) female) had a diagnosis of CCDD (8739 controls). A total of 1042 (35.3%) patients died compared with 2062 (23.6%) controls. Most excess deaths occurred in the first year after the complication. Patients with a perforation/abscess had a 4.5-fold increase in 1-year mortality (HR 4.55, 95% CI 3.74 to 5.52) compared with the general population, whereas those with a fistula or stricture had a 2.5-fold increase in mortality (fistula HR 2.60, 95% CI 1.47 to 4.62; stricture HR 2.41, 95% CI 1.86 to 3.11). Although most patients (2133 (72.3%)) had suffered no prior episodes of acute diverticulitis, increasing episodes of acute diverticulitis were associated with an increased risk of developing a fistula (two or more prior episodes, OR 1.54 95%, CI 1.08 to 2.19), but there was no clear relationship with stricture or perforation/abscess.
Although most patients have experienced no prior episodes of acute diverticulitis, fistula formation is preceded by bouts of inflammation. Excess 1-year mortality across the spectrum of CCDD compared with the general population is substantial.
Gut 05/2011; 61(1):95-100. · 10.11 Impact Factor
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ABSTRACT: Mortality due to cirrhosis has tripled over the last 30 years in the UK. However, we lack adequate, contemporary, population-based estimates of the excess mortality patients who are at risk compared with the general population.
To determine the overall survival in patients with cirrhosis compared with the general population taking into account the effects of severity and aetiology of disease and comorbidity.
In a cohort study, we identified 4537 people with cirrhosis and a control cohort of 44 403 patients, matched by age, sex and general practice from the UK General Practice Research Database between June 1987 and April 2002.
Patients with compensated cirrhosis had a nearly five-fold [hazard ratio (HR) 4.7, 95% confidence interval (CI) 4.4-5.0] increased risk of death, while those with decompensated cirrhosis had a near 10-fold (HR 9.7, 95% CI 8.9-10.6) increased risk compared with the general population. Alcoholic cirrhosis conferred a worse prognosis than non-alcohol-related cirrhosis both in the first year following diagnosis and subsequently.
Having a diagnosis of cirrhosis confers a substantial increased mortality risk compared with the general population, even for those with compensated disease, with 5-year survival between that seen for breast and colorectal cancer.
Liver international: official journal of the International Association for the Study of the Liver 04/2011; 32(1):79-84. · 3.82 Impact Factor
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ABSTRACT: It is unclear whether mortality from upper gastrointestinal hemorrhage is changing: any differences observed might result from changes in age or comorbidity of patient populations. We estimated trends in 28-day mortality in England following hospital admission for gastrointestinal hemorrhage.
We used a case-control study design to analyze data from all adults administered to a National Health Service hospital, for upper gastrointestinal hemorrhage, from 1999 to 2007 (n=516,153). Cases were deaths within 28 days of admission (n=74,992), and controls were survivors to 28 days. The 28-day mortality was derived from the linked national death register. A logistic regression model was used to adjust trends in nonvariceal and variceal hemorrhage mortality for age, sex, and comorbidities and to investigate potential interactions.
During the study period, the unadjusted, overall, 28-day mortality following nonvariceal hemorrhage was reduced from 14.7% to 13.1% (unadjusted odds ratio, 0.87; 95% confidence interval: 0.84-0.90). The mortality following variceal hemorrhage was reduced from 24.6% to 20.9% (unadjusted odds ratio, 0.8; 95% confidence interval: 0.69-0.95). Adjustments for age and comorbidity partly accounted for the observed trends in mortality. Different mortality trends were identified for different age groups following nonvariceal hemorrhage.
The 28-day mortality in England following both nonvariceal and variceal upper gastrointestinal hemorrhage decreased from 1999 to 2007, and the reduction had been partly obscured by changes in patient age and comorbidities. Our findings indicate that the overall management of bleeding has improved within the first 4 weeks of admission.
Gastroenterology 03/2011; 141(1):62-70. · 11.68 Impact Factor
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BMJ (Clinical research ed.). 01/2011; 343:d4115.
