[show abstract][hide abstract] ABSTRACT: An increasing number of people on antiretroviral therapy (ART) in sub-Saharan Africa has led to declines in HIV related morbidity and mortality. However, virologic failure (VF) and acquired drug resistance (ADR) may negatively affect these gains. This study describes the prevalence and correlates of HIV-1 VF and ADR among first-line ART experienced adults at a rural HIV clinic in Coastal Kenya.
HIV-infected adults on first-line ART for >=6 months were cross-sectionally recruited between November 2008 and March 2011. The primary outcome was VF, defined as a one-off plasma viral load of >=400 copies/ml. The secondary outcome was ADR, defined as the presence of resistance associated mutations. Logistic regression and Fishers exact test were used to describe correlates of VF and ADR respectively.
Of the 232 eligible participants on ART over a median duration of 13.9 months, 57 (24.6% [95% CI: 19.2 - 30.6]) had VF. Fifty-five viraemic samples were successfully amplified and sequenced. Of these, 29 (52.7% [95% CI: 38.8 - 66.3]) had at least one ADR, with 25 samples having dual-class resistance mutations. The most prevalent ADR mutations were the M184V (n = 24), K103N/S (n = 14) and Y181C/Y/I/V (n = 8). Twenty-six of the 55 successfully amplified viraemic samples (47.3%) did not have any detectable resistance mutation. Younger age (15-34 vs. >=35 years: adjusted odd ratios [95% CI], p-value: 0.3 [0.1-0.6], p = 0.002) and unsatisfactory adherence (<95% vs. >=95%: 3.0 [1.5-6.5], p = 0.003) were strong correlates of VF. Younger age, unsatisfactory adherence and high viral load were also strong correlates of ADR.
High levels of VF and ADR were observed in younger patients and those with unsatisfactory adherence. Youth-friendly ART initiatives and strengthened adherence support should be prioritized in this Coastal Kenyan setting. To prevent unnecessary/premature switches, targeted HIV drug resistance testing for patients with confirmed VF should be considered.
AIDS Research and Therapy 01/2014; 11(1):9. · 2.54 Impact Factor
[show abstract][hide abstract] ABSTRACT: Background We performed a molecular phylogenetic study on HIV-1 polymerase sequences of men who have sex with men (MSM) and heterosexual patient samples in Kenya to characterize any observed HIV-1 transmission networks. Methods HIV-1 polymerase sequences were obtained from samples in Nairobi and coastal Kenya from 84 MSM, 226 other men and 364 women from 2005 to 2010. Using Bayesian phylogenetics, we tested whether sequences clustered by sexual orientation and geographic location. In addition, we used trait diffusion analyses to identify significant epidemiological links and to quantify the number of transmissions between risk groups. Finally, we compared 84 MSM sequences with all HIV-1 sequences available online at Genbank. Results Significant clustering of sequences from MSM at both coastal Kenya and Nairobi was found, with evidence of HIV-1 transmission between both locations. Although a transmission pair between a coastal MSM and woman was confirmed, no significant HIV-1 transmission was evident between MSM and the comparison population for the predominant subtype A (60%). However, a weak but significant link was evident when studying all subtypes together. Genbank comparison did not reveal other important transmission links. Conclusion Our data suggests infrequent intermingling of MSM and heterosexual HIV-1 epidemics in Kenya.
AIDS research and human retroviruses 08/2013; · 2.18 Impact Factor
[show abstract][hide abstract] ABSTRACT: Background. Influenza data gaps in sub-Saharan Africa include incidence, case fatality, seasonal patterns, and associations with prevalent disorders. Methods. Nasopharyngeal samples from children aged <12 years who were admitted to Kilifi District Hospital during 2007-2010 with severe or very severe pneumonia and resided in the local demographic surveillance system were screened for influenza A, B, and C viruses by molecular methods. Outpatient children provided comparative data. Results. Of 2002 admissions, influenza A virus infection was diagnosed in 3.5% (71), influenza B virus infection, in 0.9% (19); and influenza C virus infection, in 0.8% (11 of 1404 tested). Four patients with influenza died. Among outpatients, 13 of 331 (3.9%) with acute respiratory infection and 1 of 196 without acute respiratory infection were influenza positive. The annual incidence of severe or very severe pneumonia, of influenza (any type), and of influenza A, was 1321, 60, and 43 cases per 100 000 <5 years of age, respectively. Peak occurrence was in quarters 3-4 each year, and approximately 50% of cases involved infants: temporal association with bacteremia was absent. Hypoxia was more frequent among pneumonia cases involving influenza (odds ratio, 1.78; 95% confidence interval, 1.04-1.96). Influenza A virus subtypes were seasonal H3N2 (57%), seasonal H1N1 (12%), and 2009 pandemic H1N1 (7%). Conclusions. The burden of influenza was small during 2007-2010 in this pediatric hospital in Kenya. Influenza A virus subtype H3N2 predominated, and 2009 pandemic influenza A virus subtype H1N1 had little impact.
The Journal of Infectious Diseases 12/2012; 206 Suppl 1:S61-7. · 5.85 Impact Factor
[show abstract][hide abstract] ABSTRACT: To determine the predictive value for death before 12 months of age of mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC) and weight-for-length Z score (WFLz).
A retrospective cohort analysis of infants living in Keneba, in rural Gambia, was conducted. Anthropometric measures were obtained from demographic surveillance system records for infants registered between February 1974 and July 2008 who had had MUAC and WFLz recorded at 6-14 weeks of age and vital status recorded at least once more. Hazard ratios (HRs), population attributable fractions and areas under receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were estimated to assess the predictive value for death in infancy of MUAC and WFLz.
Of 2876 infants included in the analysis, 40 died before the age of 12 months. The HR for death in this group versus in well-nourished infants was 5.8 (95% confidence interval, CI: 1.6-21) for a WFLz < -3. HRs for MUACs below the thresholds of 115 mm, 110 mm and 105 mm were 4.5 (95% CI: 1.4-15), 9.5 (95% CI: 2.6-35) and 23 (95% CI: 4.2-122), respectively. The attributable fractions for a MUAC < 130 mm and a WFLz < 0 were 51% and 13%, respectively. The areas under the ROC curve for death in infancy were 0.55 (95% CI: 0.46 to 0.64) for WFLz and 0.64 (95% CI: 0.55 to 0.73) for MUAC.
Among infants aged 6 to 14 weeks, unadjusted MUAC showed good performance in identifying infants at increased risk of death.
Bulletin of the World Health Organisation 12/2012; 90(12):887-94. · 5.25 Impact Factor
[show abstract][hide abstract] ABSTRACT: Reducing childhood mortality in resource-poor regions depends on effective interventions to decrease neonatal mortality from severe infection, which contributes up to a half of all neonatal deaths. There are key differences in resource-poor, compared to resource-rich, countries in terms of diagnosis, supportive care and treatment. In resource-poor settings, diagnosis is based on identifying clinical syndromes from international guidelines; microbiological investigations are restricted to a few research facilities. Low levels of staffing and equipment limit the provision of basic supportive care, and most facilities cannot provide respiratory support. Empiric antibiotic treatment guidelines are based on few aetiological and antimicrobial susceptibility data. Research on improving health care systems to provide effective supportive care, and implementation of simple pragmatic interventions, such as low-cost respiratory support, are essential, together with improved surveillance to monitor emerging drug resistance and treatment failures. Reductions in mortality will also be achieved through prevention of infection; including emerging vaccination and anti-sepsis strategies.
Early human development 09/2012; · 2.12 Impact Factor
[show abstract][hide abstract] ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Co-infection with HIV and helminths is common in sub-Saharan Africa and findings from previous studies have suggested that anthelmintic treatment might delay immunosuppression in people with HIV. We aimed to assess the efficacy of empiric deworming of adults with HIV in delaying HIV disease progression. METHODS: In this non-blinded randomised trial, we enrolled adults (aged ≥18 years) with HIV who did not meet criteria for the initiation of antiretroviral treatment from three sites in Kenya. Using a computer-generated sequence, we randomly assigned (1:1) eligible participants to either empiric albendazole every 3 months plus praziquantel annually (treatment group) or to standard care (control group). Participants were followed up for 24 months. We measured CD4 cell counts every 6 months and plasma HIV RNA annually. The primary endpoints were a CD4 count of less than 350 cells per μL and a composite endpoint consisting of the first occurrence of a CD4 count of less than 350 cells per μL, first reported use of antiretroviral treatment, and non-traumatic deaths. We compared these measures by use of Cox proportional hazards regression and Kaplan-Meier survival analyses. Primary analysis was done by intention to treat. The trial was registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT0050722. FINDINGS: Between Feb 6, 2008, and June 21, 2011, we enrolled and followed-up 948 participants; 469 were allocated to the treatment group and 479 to the control group. All participants were provided with co-trimoxazole prophylaxis. Median baseline CD4 cell counts and HIV RNA concentrations did not differ between groups. We recorded no statistically significant difference between the treatment and control groups in the number of people reaching a CD4 count of fewer than 350 cells per μL (41·6 events per 100 person-years vs 46·2 events per 100 person-years; hazard ratio 0·89, 95% CI 0·75-1·06, p=0·2) or the composite endpoint (44·0 events per 100 person-years vs 49·8 events per 100 person-years; 0·88, 0·74-1·04, p=0·1). Serious adverse events, none of which thought to be treatment-related, occurred at a similar frequency in both groups. INTERPRETATION: Our findings do not suggest an effect of empiric deworming in the delaying of HIV disease progression in adults with HIV in an area where helminth infection is common. Alternative approaches are needed to delay HIV disease progression in areas where co-infections are common. FUNDING: Presidents Emergency Fund for AIDS Relief and the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.
The Lancet Infectious Diseases 09/2012; · 19.97 Impact Factor
[show abstract][hide abstract] ABSTRACT: Abstract Low levels of HIV-1 transmitted drug resistance (TDR) have previously been reported from many parts of sub-Saharan Africa (sSA). However, recent data, mostly from urban settings, suggest an increase in the prevalence of HIV-1 TDR. Our objective was to determine the prevalence of TDR mutations among HIV-1-infected, antiretroviral (ARV)-naive adults enrolling for care in a rural HIV clinic in Kenya. Two cross-sectional studies were carried out between July 2008 and June 2010. Plasma samples from ARV-naive adults (>15 years old) at the time of registering for care after HIV diagnosis and before starting ARVs were used. A portion of the pol subgenomic region of the virus containing the protease and part of the reverse transcriptase genes was amplified and sequenced. TDR mutations were identified and interpreted using the Stanford HIV drug resistance database and the WHO list for surveillance of drug resistance strains. Overall, samples from 182 ARV-naive adults [mean age (95% CI): 34.9 (33.3-36.4) years] were successfully amplified and sequenced. Two TDR mutations to nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors [n=1 (T215D)] and protease inhibitors [n=1 (M46L)] were identified, giving an overall TDR prevalence of 1.1% (95% CI: 0.1-3.9). Despite reports of an increase in the prevalence of HIV-1 TDR in some urban settings in sSA, we report a prevalence of HIV-1 TDR of less than 5% at a rural HIV clinic in coastal Kenya. Continued broader surveillance is needed to monitor the extent of TDR in sSA.
AIDS research and human retroviruses 08/2012; · 2.18 Impact Factor
[show abstract][hide abstract] ABSTRACT: Pneumonia is the leading cause of childhood mortality worldwide. The World Health Organization recommends presumptive treatment based on clinical syndromes. Recent studies raise concerns over the frequency of treatment failure in Africa.
We applied a definition of treatment failure to data prospectively collected from children who were 2-59 months of age with severe, or very severe, pneumonia admitted to Kilifi District Hospital, Kenya, from May 2007 through May 2008 and treated using World Health Organization guidelines. The primary outcome was treatment failure at 48 hours.
Of 568 children, median age 11 months, 165 (29%) had very severe pneumonia, 30 (5.3%) a positive HIV test and 62 (11%) severe malnutrition. One hundred eleven (20%; 95% confidence interval: 17-23%) children failed treatment at 48 hours and 34 (6.0%) died; 22 (65%) deaths occurred before 48 hours. Of 353 children with severe pneumonia, without HIV or severe malnutrition, 42 (12%) failed to respond at 48 hours, 15 (4.3%) failed at 5 days and 1 child (0.3%) died. Among 215 children with either severe pneumonia complicated by HIV or severe malnutrition, or very severe pneumonia, 69 (32%) failed to treatment at 48 hours, 47 (22%) failed at 5 days and 33 (16%) died. Treatment failure at 48 hours was associated with shock, bacteremia, very severe pneumonia, oxygen saturation in hemoglobin <95%, severe malnutrition, HIV and age <1 year in multivariable models.
In this setting, few children with uncomplicated severe pneumonia fail treatment or die under current guidelines. Deaths mainly occurred early and may be reduced by improving prevention, prehospital care and treatment of sepsis.
[show abstract][hide abstract] ABSTRACT: Objective To assess the inter-observer variability and accuracy of Mid Upper Arm Circumference (MUAC) and weight-for-length Z score (WFLz) among infants aged <6 months performed by community health workers (CHWs) in Kilifi District, Kenya. Methods A cross-sectional repeatability study estimated inter-observer variation and accuracy of measurements initially undertaken by an expert anthropometrist, nurses and public health technicians. Then, after training, 18 CHWs (three at each of six sites) repeatedly measured MUAC, weight and length of infants aged <6 months. Intra-class correlations (ICCs) and the Pitman's statistic were calculated. Results Among CHWs, ICCs pooled across the six sites (924 infants) were 0.96 (95% CI 0.95-0.96) for MUAC and 0.71 (95% CI 0.68-0.74) for WFLz. MUAC measures by CHWs differed little from their trainers: the mean difference in MUAC was 0.65 mm (95% CI 0.023-1.07), with no significant difference in variance (P = 0.075). Conclusion Mid Upper Arm Circumference is more reliably measured by CHWs than WFLz among infants aged <6 months. Further work is needed to define cut-off values based on MUAC's ability to predict mortality among younger infants.
Tropical Medicine & International Health 02/2012; 17(5):622-9. · 2.94 Impact Factor
[show abstract][hide abstract] ABSTRACT: Severe acute malnutrition (SAM) accounts for two million deaths worldwide annually. In those hospitalised with SAM, concomitant infections and diarrhoea are frequent complications resulting in adverse outcome. We examined the clinical and laboratory features on admission and outcome of children with SAM and diarrhoea at a Kenyan district hospital.
A 4-year prospective descriptive study involving 1,206 children aged 6 months to 12 years, hospitalized with SAM and managed in accordance with WHO guidelines. Data on clinical features, haematological, biochemical and microbiological findings for children with diarrhoea (≥ 3 watery stools/day) were systematically collected and analyzed to identify risk factors associated with poor outcome.
At admission 592 children (49%) had diarrhoea of which 122 (21%) died compared to 72/614 (12%) deaths in those without diarrhoea at admission (Χ(2) = 17.6 p<0.001). A further 187 (16%) children developed diarrhoea after 48 hours of admission and 33 died (18%). Any diarrhoea during admission resulted in a significantly higher mortality 161/852 (19%) than those uncomplicated by diarrhoea 33/351 (9%) (Χ(2) = 16.6 p<0.001). Features associated with a fatal outcome in children presenting with diarrhoea included bacteraemia, hyponatraemia, low mid-upper arm circumference <10 cm, hypoxia, hypokalaemia and oedema. Bacteraemia had the highest risk of death (adjusted OR 6.1; 95% C.I 2.3, 16.3 p<0.001); and complicated 24 (20%) of fatalities. Positive HIV antibody status was more frequent in cases with diarrhoea at admission (23%) than those without (15%, Χ(2) = 12.0 p = 0.001) but did not increase the risk of death in diarrhoea cases.
Children with SAM complicated by diarrhoea had a higher risk of death than those who did not have diarrhoea during their hospital stay. Further operational and clinical research is needed to reduce mortality in children with SAM in the given setting.
PLoS ONE 01/2012; 7(6):e38321. · 3.73 Impact Factor
[show abstract][hide abstract] ABSTRACT: To determine the rate and predictors of early loss to follow-up (LTFU) for recently diagnosed HIV-infected, antiretroviral therapy (ART)-ineligible adults in rural Kenya.
Prospective cohort study. Clients registering for HIV care between July 2008 and August 2009 were followed up for 6 months. Baseline data were used to assess predictors of pre-ART LTFU (not returning for care within 2 months of a scheduled appointment), LTFU before the second visit and LTFU after the second visit. Logistic regression was used to determine factors associated with LTFU before the second visit, while Cox regression was used to assess predictors of time to LTFU and LTFU after the second visit.
Of 530 eligible clients, 178 (33.6%) were LTFU from pre-ART care (11.1/100 person-months). Of these, 96 (53.9%) were LTFU before the second visit. Distance (>5 km vs. <1 km: adjusted hazard ratio 2.6 [1.9-3.7], P < 0.01) and marital status (married vs. single: 0.5 [0.3-0.6], P < 0.01) independently predicted pre-ART LTFU. Distance and marital status were independently associated with LTFU before the second visit, while distance, education status and seasonality showed weak evidence of predicting LTFU after the second visit. HIV disease severity did not predict pre-ART LTFU.
A third of recently diagnosed HIV-infected, ART-ineligible clients were LTFU within 6 months of registration. Predictors of LTFU among ART-ineligible clients are different from those among clients on ART. These findings warrant consideration of an enhanced pre-ART care package aimed at improving retention and timely ART initiation.
Tropical Medicine & International Health 01/2012; 17(1):82-93. · 2.94 Impact Factor
[show abstract][hide abstract] ABSTRACT: To determine the diagnostic value of visible severe wasting in identifying severe acute malnutrition at two public hospitals in Kenya.
This was a cross-sectional study of children aged 6 to 59.9 months admitted to one rural and one urban hospital. On admission, mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC), weight and height were measured and the presence of visible severe wasting was assessed. The diagnostic performance of visible severe wasting was evaluated against anthropometric criteria.
Of 11,166 children admitted, 563 (5%) had kwashiorkor and 1406 (12.5%) were severely wasted (MUAC < 11.5 cm). The combined sensitivity and specificity of visible severe wasting at the two hospitals, as assessed against a MUAC < 11.5 cm, were 54% (95% confidence interval, CI: 51-56) and 96% (95% CI: 96-97), respectively; at one hospital, its sensitivity and specificity against a weight-for-height z-score below -3 were 44.7% (95% CI: 42-48) and 96.5% (95% CI: 96-97), respectively. Severely wasted children who were correctly identified by visible severe wasting were consistently older, more severely wasted, more often having kwashiorkor, more often positive to the human immunodeficiency virus, ill for a longer period and at greater risk of death. Visible severe wasting had lower sensitivity for determining the risk of death than the anthropometric measures. There was no evidence to support measuring both MUAC and weight-for-height z-score.
Visible severe wasting failed to detect approximately half of the children admitted to hospital with severe acute malnutrition diagnosed anthropometrically. Routine screening by MUAC is quick, simple and inexpensive and should be part of the standard assessment of all paediatric hospital admissions in the study setting.
Bulletin of the World Health Organisation 12/2011; 89(12):900-6. · 5.25 Impact Factor
[show abstract][hide abstract] ABSTRACT: In sub-Saharan Africa, community-acquired bacteraemia is an important cause of illness and death in children. Our aim was to establish the magnitude and causes of hospital-acquired (nosocomial) bacteraemia in African children.
We reviewed prospectively collected surveillance data of 33,188 admissions to Kilifi District Hospital, Kenya, between April 16, 2002, and Sept 30, 2009. We defined bacteraemia as nosocomial if it occurred 48 h or more after admission. We estimated the per-admission risk, daily rate, effect on mortality, and microbial cause of nosocomial bacteraemia and analysed risk factors by multivariable Cox regression. The effect on morbidity was measured as the increase in hospital stay by comparison with time-matched patients without bacteraemia.
The overall risk of nosocomial bacteraemia during this period was 5·9/1000 admissions (95% CI 5·2-6·9) but we recorded an underlying rise in risk of 27% per year. The incidence was 1·0/1000 days in hospital (0·87-1·14), which is about 40 times higher than that of community-acquired bacteraemia in the same region. Mortality in patients with nosocomial bacteraemia was 53%, compared with 24% in community-acquired bacteraemia and 6% in patients without bacteraemia. In survivors, nosocomial bacteraemia lengthened hospital stay by 10·1 days (3·0-17·2). Klebsiella pneumoniae, Escherichia coli, Staphylococcus aureus, Acinetobacter spp, group D streptococci, and Pseudomonas aeruginosa accounted for three-quarters of nosocomial infections. Nosocomial bacteraemia was significantly associated with severe malnutrition (hazard ratio 2·52, 95% CI 1·79-3·57) and blood transfusion in children without severe anaemia (4·99; 3·39-7·37).
Our findings show that although nosocomial bacteraemia is rare, it has serious effects on morbidity and mortality, and the microbiological causes are distinct from those of community-acquired bacteraemia. Nosocomial infections are largely unrecognised or undocumented as a health risk in low-income countries, but they are likely to become public health priorities as awareness of their occurrence increases and as other prominent childhood diseases are progressively controlled.
The Lancet 11/2011; 378(9808):2021-7. · 39.06 Impact Factor
[show abstract][hide abstract] ABSTRACT: The global burden of disease attributable to seasonal influenza virus in children is unknown. We aimed to estimate the global incidence of and mortality from lower respiratory infections associated with influenza in children younger than 5 years.
We estimated the incidence of influenza episodes, influenza-associated acute lower respiratory infections (ALRI), and influenza-associated severe ALRI in children younger than 5 years, stratified by age, with data from a systematic review of studies published between Jan 1, 1995, and Oct 31, 2010, and 16 unpublished population-based studies. We applied these incidence estimates to global population estimates for 2008 to calculate estimates for that year. We estimated possible bounds for influenza-associated ALRI mortality by combining incidence estimates with case fatality ratios from hospital-based reports and identifying studies with population-based data for influenza seasonality and monthly ALRI mortality.
We identified 43 suitable studies, with data for around 8 million children. We estimated that, in 2008, 90 million (95% CI 49-162 million) new cases of influenza (data from nine studies), 20 million (13-32 million) cases of influenza-associated ALRI (13% of all cases of paediatric ALRI; data from six studies), and 1 million (1-2 million) cases of influenza-associated severe ALRI (7% of cases of all severe paediatric ALRI; data from 39 studies) occurred worldwide in children younger than 5 years. We estimated there were 28,000-111,500 deaths in children younger than 5 years attributable to influenza-associated ALRI in 2008, with 99% of these deaths occurring in developing countries. Incidence and mortality varied substantially from year to year in any one setting.
Influenza is a common pathogen identified in children with ALRI and results in a substantial burden on health services worldwide. Sufficient data to precisely estimate the role of influenza in childhood mortality from ALRI are not available.
WHO; Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
The Lancet 11/2011; 378(9807):1917-30. · 39.06 Impact Factor
[show abstract][hide abstract] ABSTRACT: Meningitis is notoriously difficult to diagnose in infancy because its clinical features are non-specific. World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines suggest several indicative signs, based on limited data. We aimed to identify indicators of bacterial meningitis in young infants in Kenya, and compared their performance to the WHO guidelines. We also examined the feasibility of developing a scoring system for meningitis.
We studied all admissions aged < 60 days to Kilifi District Hospital, 2001 through 2005. We evaluated clinical indicators against microbiological findings using likelihood ratios. We prospectively validated our findings 2006 through 2007.
We studied 2,411 and 1,512 young infants during the derivation and validation periods respectively. During derivation, 31/1,031 (3.0%) neonates aged < 7 days and 67/1,380 (4.8%) young infants aged 7-59 days (p < 0.001) had meningitis. 90% of cases could be diagnosed macroscopically (turbidity) or by microscopic leukocyte counting. Independent indicators of meningitis were: fever, convulsions, irritability, bulging fontanel and temperature ≥ 39°C. Areas under the receiver operating characteristic curve in the validation period were 0.62 [95%CI: 0.49-0.75] age < 7 days and 0.76 [95%CI: 0.68-0.85] thereafter (P = 0.07), and using the WHO signs, 0.50 [95%CI 0.35-0.65] age < 7 days and 0.82 [95%CI: 0.75-0.89] thereafter (P = 0.0001). The number needed to LP to identify one case was 21 [95%CI: 15-35] for our signs, and 28 [95%CI: 18-61] for WHO signs. With a scoring system, a cut-off of ≥ 1 sign offered the best compromise on sensitivity and specificity.
Simple clinical signs at admission identify two thirds of meningitis cases in neonates and young infants. Lumbar puncture is essential to diagnosis and avoidance of unnecessary treatment, and is worthwhile without CSF biochemistry or bacterial culture. The signs of Meningitis suggested by the WHO perform poorly in the first week of life. A scoring system for meningitis in this age group is not helpful.
[show abstract][hide abstract] ABSTRACT: To explore excess paediatric mortality after discharge from Kilifi District Hospital, Kenya, and its duration and risk factors.
Hospital and demographic data were used to describe post-discharge mortality and survival probability in children aged < 15 years, by age group and clinical syndrome. Cox regression models were developed to identify risk factors.
In 2004-2008, approximately 111,000 children were followed for 555,000 person-years. We analysed 14,971 discharges and 535 deaths occurring within 365 days of discharge. Mortality was higher in the post-discharge cohort than in the community cohort (age-adjusted rate ratio, RR: 7.7; 95% confidence interval, CI: 6.6-8.9) and declined little over time. An increased post-discharge mortality hazard was found in children aged < 5 years with the following: weight-for-age Z score < -4 (hazard ratio, HR: 6.5); weight-for-age Z score > -4 but < -3 (HR: 3.4); hypoxia (HR: 2.3); bacteraemia (HR: 1.8); hepatomegaly (HR: 2.3); jaundice (HR: 1.8); hospital stay > 13 days (HR: 1.8). Older age was protective (reference < 1 month): 6-23 months, HR: 0.8; 2-4 years, HR: 0.6. Children with at least one risk factor accounted for 545 (33%) of the 1655 annual discharges and for 39 (47%) of the 83 discharge-associated deaths.
Hospital admission selects vulnerable children with a sustained increased risk of dying. The risk factors identified provide an empiric basis for effective outpatient follow-up.
Bulletin of the World Health Organisation 10/2011; 89(10):725-32, 732A. · 5.25 Impact Factor
[show abstract][hide abstract] ABSTRACT: Dehydration and malnutrition commonly occur together among ill children in developing countries. Dehydration (change in total body water) is known to alter weight. Although muscle tissue has high water content, it is not known whether mid-upper arm circumference (MUAC) may be altered by changes in tissue hydration. We aimed to determine whether rehydration alters MUAC, MUAC Z score (MUACz), weight-for-length Z-score (WFLz) and classification of nutritional status among hospitalised Kenyan children admitted with signs of dehydration. STUDY PROCEDURE: We enrolled children aged from 3 months to 5 years admitted to a rural Kenyan district hospital with clinical signs compatible with dehydration, and without kwashiorkor. Anthropometric measurements were taken at admission and repeated after 48 hours of treatment, which included rehydration by WHO protocols. Changes in weight observed during this period were considered to be due to changes in hydration status.
Among 325 children (median age 11 months) the median weight gain (rehydration) after 48 hours was 0.21 kg, (an increase of 2.9% of admission body weight). Each 1% change in weight was associated with a 0.40 mm (95% CI: 0.30 to 0.44 mm, p < 0.001) change in MUAC, 0.035z (95% CI: 0.027 to 0.043z, P < 0.001) change in MUACz score and 0.115z (95% CI: 0.114 to 0.116 z, p < 0.001) change in WFLz. Among children aged 6 months or more with signs of dehydration at admission who were classified as having severe acute malnutrition (SAM) at admission by WFLz <-3 or MUAC <115 mm, 21% and 19% of children respectively were above these cut offs after 48 hours.
MUAC is less affected by dehydration than WFLz and is therefore more suitable for nutritional assessment of ill children. However, both WFLz and MUAC misclassify SAM among dehydrated children. Nutritional status should be re-evaluated following rehydration, and management adjusted accordingly.