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ABSTRACT: Pakistan and Afghanistan are two of the three remaining countries yet to interrupt wild-type poliovirus transmission. The increasing incidence of poliomyelitis in these countries during 2010-11 led the Executive Board of WHO in January, 2012, to declare polio eradication a "programmatic emergency for global public health". We aimed to establish why incidence is rising in these countries despite programme innovations including the introduction of new vaccines.
We did a matched case-control analysis based on a database of 46,977 children aged 0-14 years with onset of acute flaccid paralysis between Jan 1, 2001, and Dec 31, 2011. The vaccination history of children with poliomyelitis was compared with that of children with acute flaccid paralysis due to other causes to estimate the clinical effectiveness of oral poliovirus vaccines (OPVs) in Afghanistan and Pakistan by conditional logistic regression. We estimated vaccine coverage and serotype-specific vaccine-induced population immunity in children aged 0-2 years and assessed their association with the incidence of poliomyelitis over time in seven regions of Afghanistan and Pakistan.
Between Jan 1, 2001, and Dec 31, 2011, there were 883 cases of serotype 1 poliomyelitis (710 in Pakistan and 173 in Afghanistan) and 272 cases of poliomyelitis serotype 3 (216 in Pakistan and 56 in Afghanistan). The estimated clinical effectiveness of a dose of trivalent OPV against serotype 1 poliomyelitis was 12·5% (95% CI 5·6-18·8) compared with 34·5% (16·1-48·9) for monovalent OPV (p=0·007) and 23·4% (10·4-34·6) for bivalent OPV (p=0·067). Bivalent OPV was non-inferior compared with monovalent OPV (p=0·21). Vaccination coverage decreased during 2006-11 in the Federally Administered Tribal Areas (FATA), Balochistan, and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa in Pakistan and in southern Afghanistan. Although partially mitigated by the use of more effective vaccines, these decreases in coverage resulted in lower vaccine-induced population immunity to poliovirus serotype 1 in FATA and Balochistan and associated increases in the incidence of poliomyelitis.
The effectiveness of bivalent OPV is comparable with monovalent OPV and can therefore be used in eradicating serotype 1 poliomyelitis whilst minimising the risks of serotype 3 outbreaks. However, decreases in vaccination coverage in parts of Pakistan and southern Afghanistan have severely limited the effect of this vaccine.
Poliovirus Research subcommittee of WHO, Royal Society, and Medical Research Council.
The Lancet 07/2012; 380(9840):491-8. · 38.28 Impact Factor
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ABSTRACT: The eradication of wild-type polioviruses in areas with efficient fecal-oral transmission relies on intestinal mucosal immunity induced by oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV). Mucosal immunity is thought to wane over time but the rate of loss of protection has not been examined.
We examined the degree and duration of intestinal mucosal immunity in India by measuring the prevalence of vaccine poliovirus in stool samples collected 4-28 days after a "challenge" dose of OPV among 47 574 children with acute flaccid paralysis reported during 2005-2009.
Previous vaccination with OPV was protective against excretion of vaccine poliovirus after challenge, but the odds of excretion increased significantly with the time since the child was last exposed to an immunization activity (odds ratio, 1.39 [95% confidence interval .99-1.97], 2.04 [1.28-3.25], and 1.31 [1.00-1.70] comparing ≥6 months with 1 month ago for serotypes 1, 2, and 3, respectively). Vaccine administered during the high season for enterovirus infections (April-September) was significantly less likely to result in excretion, especially in northern states (odds ratio, 0.57 [95% confidence interval, .50-.65], 0.58 [.41-.81], and 0.48 [.40-.57] for serotypes 1, 2, and 3).
Infection with OPV (vaccine "take") is highly seasonal in India and results in intestinal mucosal immunity that appears to wane significantly within a year of vaccination.
The Journal of Infectious Diseases 03/2012; 205(10):1554-61. · 6.41 Impact Factor
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Concepción F Estívariz,
Hamid Jafari,
Roland W Sutter,
T Jacob John,
Vibhor Jain,
Ashutosh Agarwal,
Harish Verma,
Mark A Pallansch,
Ajit P Singh,
Sherine Guirguis,
Jitendra Awale,
Anthony Burton,
Sunil Bahl,
Arani Chatterjee, R Bruce Aylward
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ABSTRACT: The continued presence of polio in northern India poses challenges to the interruption of wild poliovirus transmission and the management of poliovirus risks in the post-eradication era. We aimed to assess the current immunity profile after routine doses of trivalent oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) and numerous supplemental doses of type-1 monovalent OPV (mOPV1), and compared the effect of five vaccine formulations and dosages on residual immunity gaps.
We did a community-based, randomised controlled trial of healthy infants aged 6-9 months at ten sites in Moradabad, India. Serum neutralising antibody was measured before infants were randomly assigned to a study group and given standard-potency or higher-potency mOPV1, intradermal fractional-dose inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV, GlaxoSmithKline), or intramuscular full-dose IPV from two different manufacturers (GlaxoSmithKline or Panacea). Follow-up sera were taken at days 7 and 28. Our primary endpoint was an increase of more than four times in antibody titres. We did analyses by per-protocol in children with a blood sample available before, and 28 days after, receiving study vaccine (or who completed study procedures). This trial is registered with Current Controlled Trials, number ISRCTN90744784.
Of 1002 children enrolled, 869 (87%) completed study procedures (ie, blood sample available at day 0 and day 28). At baseline, 862 (99%), 625 (72%), and 418 (48%) had detectable antibodies to poliovirus types 1, 2, and 3, respectively. In children who were type-1 seropositive, an increase of more than four times in antibody titre was detected 28 days after they were given standard-potency mOPV1 (5/13 [38%]), higher-potency mOPV1 (6/21 [29%]), intradermal IPV (9/16 [56%]), GlaxoSmithKline intramuscular IPV (19/22 [86%]), and Panacea intramuscular IPV (11/13 [85%]). In those who were type-2 seronegative, 42 (100%) of 42 seroconverted after GlaxoSmithKline intramuscular IPV, and 24 (59%) of 41 after intradermal IPV (p<0·0001). 87 (90%) of 97 infants who were type-3 seronegative seroconverted after intramuscular IPV, and 21 (36%) of 49 after intradermal IPV (p<0·0001).
Supplemental mOPV1 resulted in almost total seroprevalence against poliovirus type 1, which is consistent with recent absence of poliomyelitis cases; whereas seroprevalence against types 2 and 3 was expected for routine vaccination histories. The immunogenicity of IPV produced in India (Panacea) was similar to that of an internationally manufactured IPV (GSK). Intradermal IPV was less immunogenic.
The Lancet Infectious Diseases 11/2011; 12(2):128-35. · 17.39 Impact Factor
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ABSTRACT: Outbreaks of poliomyelitis in African countries that were previously free of wild-type poliovirus cost the Global Polio Eradication Initiative US$850 million during 2003-2009, and have limited the ability of the program to focus on endemic countries. A quantitative understanding of the factors that predict the distribution and timing of outbreaks will enable their prevention and facilitate the completion of global eradication.
Children with poliomyelitis in Africa from 1 January 2003 to 31 December 2010 were identified through routine surveillance of cases of acute flaccid paralysis, and separate outbreaks associated with importation of wild-type poliovirus were defined using the genetic relatedness of these viruses in the VP1/2A region. Potential explanatory variables were examined for their association with the number, size, and duration of poliomyelitis outbreaks in 6-mo periods using multivariable regression analysis. The predictive ability of 6-mo-ahead forecasts of poliomyelitis outbreaks in each country based on the regression model was assessed. A total of 142 genetically distinct outbreaks of poliomyelitis were recorded in 25 African countries, resulting in 1-228 cases (median of two cases). The estimated number of people arriving from infected countries and <5-y childhood mortality were independently associated with the number of outbreaks. Immunisation coverage based on the reported vaccination history of children with non-polio acute flaccid paralysis was associated with the duration and size of each outbreak, as well as the number of outbreaks. Six-month-ahead forecasts of the number of outbreaks in a country or region changed over time and had a predictive ability of 82%.
Outbreaks of poliomyelitis resulted primarily from continued transmission in Nigeria and the poor immunisation status of populations in neighbouring countries. From 1 January 2010 to 30 June 2011, reduced transmission in Nigeria and increased incidence in reinfected countries in west and central Africa have changed the geographical risk of polio outbreaks, and will require careful immunisation planning to limit onward spread. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary.
PLoS Medicine 10/2011; 8(10):e1001109. · 16.27 Impact Factor
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Roland W Sutter,
T Jacob John,
Hemant Jain,
Sharad Agarkhedkar,
Padmasani Venkat Ramanan,
Harish Verma,
Jagadish Deshpande,
Ajit Pal Singh,
Meghana Sreevatsava,
Pradeep Malankar,
Anthony Burton,
Arani Chatterjee,
Hamid Jafari, R Bruce Aylward
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ABSTRACT: Poliovirus types 1 and 3 co-circulate in poliomyelitis-endemic countries. We aimed to assess the immunogenicity of a novel bivalent types 1 and 3 oral poliovirus vaccine (bOPV).
We did a randomised, double-blind, controlled trial to assess the superiority of monovalent type 2 OPV (mOPV2), mOPV3, or bOPV over trivalent OPV (tOPV), and the non-inferiority of bivalent vaccine compared with mOPV1 and mOPV3. The study was done at three centres in India between Aug 6, 2008, and Dec 26, 2008. Random allocation was done by permuted blocks of ten. The primary outcome was seroconversion after one monovalent or bivalent vaccine dose compared with a dose of trivalent vaccine at birth. The secondary endpoints were seroconversion after two vaccine doses compared with after two trivalent vaccine doses and cumulative two-dose seroconversion. Parents or guardians and study investigators were masked to treatment allocation. Because of multiple comparisons, we defined p≤0·01 as statistically significant. This trial is registered with Current Controlled Trials, ISRCTN 64725429.
900 newborn babies were randomly assigned to one of five vaccine groups (about 180 patients per group); of these 70 (8%) discontinued, leaving 830 (92%) for analysis. After the first dose, seroconversion to poliovirus type 1 was 20% for both mOPV1 (33 of 168) and bOPV (32 of 159) compared with 15% for tOPV (25 of 168; p>0·01), to poliovirus type 2 was 21% (35 of 170) for mOPV2 compared with 25% (42 of 168) for tOPV (p>0·01), and to poliovirus type 3 was 12% (20 of 165) for mOPV3 and 7% (11 of 159) for bOPV compared with 4% (7 of 168) for tOPV (mOPV3 vs tOPV p=0·01; bOPV vs tOPV; p>0·01). Cumulative two-dose seroconversion to poliovirus type 1 was 90% (151 of 168) for mOPV1 and 86% (136 of 159) for bOPV compared with 63% (106 of 168) for tOPV (p<0·0001), to poliovirus type 2 was 90% (153 of 170) for mOPV2 compared with 91% (153 of 168) for tOPV (p>0·01), and to poliovirus type 3 was 84% (138 of 165) for mOPV3 and 74% (117 of 159) for bOPV compared with 52% (87 of 168) for tOPV (p<0·0001). The vaccines were well tolerated. 19 serious adverse events occurred, including one death; however, these events were not attributed to the trial interventions.
The findings show the superiority of bOPV compared with tOPV, and the non-inferiority of bOPV compared with mOPV1 and mOPV3.
GAVI Alliance, World Health Organization, and Panacea Biotec.
The Lancet 10/2010; 376(9753):1682-8. · 38.28 Impact Factor
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ABSTRACT: The global polio eradication initiative (GPEI), which started in 1988, represents the single largest, internationally coordinated public health project to date. Completion remains within reach, with type 2 wild polioviruses apparently eradicated since 1999 and fewer than 2000 annual paralytic poliomyelitis cases of wild types 1 and 3 reported since then. This economic analysis of the GPEI reflects the status of the program as of February 2010, including full consideration of post-eradication policies. For the GPEI intervention, we consider the actual pre-eradication experience to date followed by two distinct potential future post-eradication vaccination policies. We estimate GPEI costs based on actual and projected expenditures and poliomyelitis incidence using reported numbers corrected for underreporting and model projections. For the comparator, which assumes only routine vaccination for polio historically and into the future (i.e., no GPEI), we estimate poliomyelitis incidence using a dynamic infection transmission model and costs based on numbers of vaccinated children. Cost-effectiveness ratios for the GPEI vs. only routine vaccination qualify as highly cost-effective based on standard criteria. We estimate incremental net benefits of the GPEI between 1988 and 2035 of approximately 40-50 billion dollars (2008 US dollars; 1988 net present values). Despite the high costs of achieving eradication in low-income countries, low-income countries account for approximately 85% of the total net benefits generated by the GPEI in the base case analysis. The total economic costs saved per prevented paralytic poliomyelitis case drive the incremental net benefits, which become positive even if we estimate the loss in productivity as a result of disability as below the recommended value of one year in average per-capita gross national income per disability-adjusted life year saved. Sensitivity analysis suggests that the finding of positive net benefits of the GPEI remains robust over a wide range of assumptions, and that consideration of the additional net benefits of externalities that occurred during polio campaigns to date, such as the mortality reduction associated with delivery of Vitamin A supplements, significantly increases the net benefits. This study finds a strong economic justification for the GPEI despite the rising costs of the initiative.
Vaccine 10/2010; 29(2):334-43. · 3.77 Impact Factor
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Helen E Jenkins, R Bruce Aylward,
Alex Gasasira,
Christl A Donnelly,
Michael Mwanza,
Jukka Corander,
Sandra Garnier,
Claire Chauvin,
Emmanuel Abanida,
Muhammad Ali Pate,
Festus Adu,
Marycelin Baba,
Nicholas C Grassly
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ABSTRACT: The largest recorded outbreak of a circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus (cVDPV), detected in Nigeria, provides a unique opportunity to analyze the pathogenicity of the virus, the clinical severity of the disease, and the effectiveness of control measures for cVDPVs as compared with wild-type poliovirus (WPV).
We identified cases of acute flaccid paralysis associated with fecal excretion of type 2 cVDPV, type 1 WPV, or type 3 WPV reported in Nigeria through routine surveillance from January 1, 2005, through June 30, 2009. The clinical characteristics of these cases, the clinical attack rates for each virus, and the effectiveness of oral polio vaccines in preventing paralysis from each virus were compared.
No significant differences were found in the clinical severity of paralysis among the 278 cases of type 2 cVDPV, the 2323 cases of type 1 WPV, and the 1059 cases of type 3 WPV. The estimated average annual clinical attack rates of type 1 WPV, type 2 cVDPV, and type 3 WPV per 100,000 susceptible children under 5 years of age were 6.8 (95% confidence interval [CI], 5.9 to 7.7), 2.7 (95% CI, 1.9 to 3.6), and 4.0 (95% CI, 3.4 to 4.7), respectively. The estimated effectiveness of trivalent oral polio vaccine against paralysis from type 2 cVDPV was 38% (95% CI, 15 to 54%) per dose, which was substantially higher than that against paralysis from type 1 WPV (13%; 95% CI, 8 to 18%), or type 3 WPV (20%; 95% CI, 12 to 26%). The more frequent use of serotype 1 and serotype 3 monovalent oral polio vaccines has resulted in improvements in vaccine-induced population immunity against these serotypes and in declines in immunity to type 2 cVDPV.
The attack rate and severity of disease associated with the recent cVDPV identified in Nigeria are similar to those associated with WPV. International planning for the management of the risk of WPV, both before and after eradication, must include scenarios in which equally virulent and pathogenic cVDPVs could emerge.
New England Journal of Medicine 06/2010; 362(25):2360-9. · 53.30 Impact Factor
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ABSTRACT: Mucosal immunity induced by oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) is imperfect and potentially allows immunized individuals to participate in asymptomatic wild-type poliovirus transmission in settings with efficient fecal-oral transmission of infection.
We examined the extent of asymptomatic wild-type poliovirus transmission in India by measuring the prevalence of virus in stool samples obtained from 14,005 healthy children who were in contact with 2761 individuals with suspected poliomyelitis reported during the period 2003-2008.
Wild-type poliovirus serotypes 1 and 3 were isolated from the stool samples of 103 (0.74%) and 104 (0.74%) healthy contacts, respectively. Among contacts of individuals with laboratory-confirmed poliomyelitis, 27 (12.7%) of 213 and 29 (13.9%) of 209 had serotypes 1 and 3, respectively, isolated from their stool samples. The odds ratio of excreting serotype 1 wild-type poliovirus was 0.13 (95% confidence interval, 0.02-0.87) among healthy children reporting 6 doses of OPV, compared with children reporting 0-2 doses. However, two-thirds of healthy children who excreted this virus reported >or=6 doses, and the prevalence of this virus did not decrease with age over the sampled range.
Although OPV is protective against infection with poliovirus, the majority of healthy contacts who excreted wild-type poliovirus were well vaccinated. This is consistent with a potential role for OPV-vaccinated children in continued wild-type poliovirus transmission and requires further study.
The Journal of Infectious Diseases 03/2010; 201(10):1535-43. · 6.41 Impact Factor
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ABSTRACT: Persistent wild-poliovirus transmission, particularly in India, has raised questions about the degree of mucosal immunity induced by oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) in tropical countries.
Excretion of vaccine poliovirus after challenge with OPV was measured in stool samples collected from children identified by the acute flaccid paralysis surveillance program in India during 2005-2007. The effectiveness of trivalent and monovalent OPV against excretion of each poliovirus type was estimated.
Vaccine poliovirus was isolated from 4994 (5.2%) of 96,641 children with 2 stool samples. The relative odds of excreting challenge poliovirus among children with 5 reported previous doses of trivalent OPV compared with 0 previous doses was 0.24 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.12-0.45), 0.08 (95% CI, 0.04-0.14), and 0.40 (95% CI, 0.19-0.85) for serotypes 1, 2, and 3, respectively, but the relative odds increased to 0.62 (95% CI, 0.44-0.88), 0.44 (95% CI, 0.20-0.99), and 0.66 (95% CI, 0.41-1.06), respectively, in the northern states of Uttar Pradesh and Bihar. In these 2 states, the relative odds of excretion of serotype 1 was 0.32 (95% CI, 0.26-0.41) after 5 doses of type 1 monovalent OPV.
The mucosal immunity induced by OPV in India varies by location, serotype, and vaccine formulation. These findings have implications for global eradication and the potential role played by inactivated vaccine in this setting.
The Journal of Infectious Diseases 10/2009; 200(5):794-801. · 6.41 Impact Factor
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ABSTRACT: The number of cases of paralytic poliomyelitis has declined in Nigeria since the introduction of newly licensed monovalent oral poliovirus vaccines and new techniques of vaccine delivery. Understanding the relative contribution of these vaccines and the improved coverage to the decline in incident cases is essential for future planning.
We estimated the field efficacies of monovalent type 1 oral poliovirus vaccine and trivalent oral poliovirus vaccine, using the reported number of doses received by people with poliomyelitis and by matched controls as identified in Nigeria's national surveillance database, in which 27,379 cases of acute flaccid paralysis were recorded between 2001 and 2007. Our estimates of vaccine coverage and vaccine-induced immunity were based on the number of doses received by children listed in the database who had paralysis that was not caused by poliovirus.
The estimated efficacies per dose of monovalent type 1 oral poliovirus vaccine and trivalent oral poliovirus vaccine against type 1 paralytic poliomyelitis were 67% (95% confidence interval [CI], 39 to 82) and 16% (95% CI, 10 to 21), respectively, and the estimated efficacy per dose of trivalent oral poliovirus vaccine against type 3 paralytic poliomyelitis was 18% (95% CI, 9 to 26). In the northwestern region of Nigeria, which reported the majority of cases during the study period, coverage with at least one dose of vaccine increased from 59 to 78%. Between 2005 and 2007, vaccine-induced immunity levels among children under the age of 5 years more than doubled, to 56%.
The higher efficacy of monovalent type 1 oral poliovirus vaccine (four times as effective as trivalent oral poliovirus vaccine) and the moderate gains in coverage dramatically increased vaccine-induced immunity against serotype 1 in northern Nigeria. Further increases in coverage in Nigerian states with infected populations are required to achieve the levels of vaccine-induced immunity associated with the sustained elimination achieved in other parts of the country.
New England Journal of Medicine 11/2008; 359(16):1666-74. · 53.30 Impact Factor
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Kimberly M Thompson,
Radboud J Duintjer Tebbens,
Mark A Pallansch,
Olen M Kew,
Roland W Sutter, R Bruce Aylward,
Margaret Watkins,
Howard E Gary,
James Alexander,
Hamid Jafari,
Stephen L Cochi
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ABSTRACT: We assessed the costs, risks, and benefits of possible future major policy decisions on vaccination, surveillance, response plans, and containment following global eradication of wild polioviruses.
We developed a decision analytic model to estimate the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios and net benefits of risk management options for polio for the 20-year period and stratified the world according to income level to capture important variability between nations.
For low-, lower-middle-, and upper-middle-income groups currently using oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV), we found that after successful eradication of wild polioviruses, OPV cessation would save both costs and lives when compared with continued use of OPV without supplemental immunization activities. We found cost-effectiveness ratios for switching from OPV to inactivated poliovirus vaccine to be higher (i.e., less desirable) than other health investment opportunities, depending on the actual inactivated poliovirus vaccine costs and assumptions about whether supplemental immunization activities with OPV would continue.
Eradication promises billions of dollars of net benefits, although global health policy leaders face difficult choices about future policies. Until successful eradication and coordination of posteradication policies, health authorities should continue routine polio vaccination and supplemental immunization activities.
American Journal of Public Health 08/2008; 98(7):1322-30. · 3.93 Impact Factor
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Radboud J Duintjer Tebbens,
Mark A Pallansch,
Olen M Kew,
Roland W Sutter, R Bruce Aylward,
Margaret Watkins,
Howard Gary,
James Alexander,
Hamid Jafari,
Stephen L Cochi,
Kimberly M Thompson
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ABSTRACT: Decision analytic modeling of polio risk management policies after eradication may help inform decisionmakers about the quantitative tradeoffs implied by various options. Given the significant dynamic complexity and uncertainty involving posteradication decisions, this article aims to clarify the structure of a decision analytic model developed to help characterize the risks, costs, and benefits of various options for polio risk management after eradication of wild polioviruses and analyze the implications of different sources of uncertainty. We provide an influence diagram of the model with a description of each component, explore the impact of different assumptions about model inputs, and present probability distributions of model outputs. The results show that choices made about surveillance, response, and containment for different income groups and immunization policies play a major role in the expected final costs and polio cases. While the overall policy implications of the model remain robust to the variations of assumptions and input uncertainty we considered, the analyses suggest the need for policymakers to carefully consider tradeoffs and for further studies to address the most important knowledge gaps.
Risk Analysis 08/2008; 28(4):855-76. · 2.37 Impact Factor
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ABSTRACT: A high-potency monovalent oral type 1 poliovirus vaccine (mOPV1) was developed in 2005 to tackle persistent poliovirus transmission in the last remaining infected countries. Our aim was to assess the efficacy of this vaccine in India.
We estimated the efficacy of mOPV1 used in supplementary immunisation activities from 2076 matched case-control pairs of confirmed cases of poliomyelitis caused by type 1 wild poliovirus and cases of non-polio acute flaccid paralysis in India. The effect of the introduction of mOPV1 on population immunity was calculated on the basis of estimates of vaccination coverage from data for non-polio acute flaccid paralysis.
In areas of persistent poliovirus transmission in Uttar Pradesh, the protective efficacy of mOPV1 was estimated to be 30% (95% CI 19-41) per dose against type 1 paralytic disease, compared with 11% (7-14) for the trivalent oral vaccine. 76-82% of children aged 0-23 months were estimated to be protected by vaccination against type 1 poliovirus at the end of 2006, compared with 59% at the end of 2004, before the introduction of mOPV1.
Under conditions where the efficacy of live-attenuated oral poliovirus vaccines is compromised by a high prevalence of diarrhoea and other infections, a dose of high-potency mOPV1 is almost three times more effective against type 1 poliomyelitis disease than is trivalent vaccine. Achieving high coverage with this new vaccine in areas of persistent poliovirus transmission should substantially improve the probability of rapidly eliminating transmission of the disease.
The Lancet 05/2007; 369(9570):1356-62. · 38.28 Impact Factor
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ABSTRACT: Inherent in the decision to launch the Global Polio Eradication Initiative in 1988 was the expectation for many people that immunization against poliomyelitis would eventually simply stop, as had been the case with smallpox following its eradication in 1977. However, the strategies for managing the risks associated with a "polio-free" world must be continuously refined to reflect new developments, particularly in our understanding of the live polioviruses in the oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) and in the international approach to managing potential biohazards. The most important of these developments has been the confirmation in 2000 that vaccine-derived polioviruses (VDPVs) can circulate and cause polio outbreaks, making the use of OPV after interruption of wild poliovirus transmission incompatible with a polio-free world. A comprehensive strategy has been developed to minimize the risks associated with eventual OPV cessation, centered on appropriate long-term biocontainment of poliovirus stocks (whether for vaccine production, diagnosis, or research), the controlled reintroduction of any live poliovirus vaccine (i.e., from an OPV stockpile), and appropriate use of the inactivated poliovirus vaccine (IPV). Although some aspects of this risk management strategy are still debated, there is wide agreement that no strategy would entirely eliminate the potential risks to a polio-free world. The current strategy for risk management in a polio-free world will continue to evolve with better characterization of these risks and the development of more effective approaches both to reduce those risks and to limit their consequences should they occur.
Risk Analysis 01/2007; 26(6):1441-8. · 2.37 Impact Factor
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Kimberly M Thompson,
Radboud J Duintjer Tebbens,
Mark A Pallansch,
Olen M Kew,
Roland W Sutter, R Bruce Aylward,
Margaret Watkins,
Howard Gary,
James P Alexander,
Linda Venczel,
Denise Johnson,
Victor M Cáceres,
Nalinee Sangrujee,
Hamid Jafari,
Stephen L Cochi
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ABSTRACT: The success of the Global Polio Eradication Initiative promises to bring large benefits, including sustained improvements in quality of life (i.e., cases of paralytic disease and deaths avoided) and costs saved from cessation of vaccination. Obtaining and maintaining these benefits requires that policymakers manage the transition from the current massive use of oral poliovirus vaccine (OPV) to a world without OPV and free of the risks of potential future reintroductions of live polioviruses. This article describes the analytical journey that began in 2001 with a retrospective case study on polio risk management and led to development of dynamic integrated risk, economic, and decision analysis tools to inform global policies for managing the risks of polio. This analytical journey has provided several key insights and lessons learned that will be useful to future analysts involved in similar complex decision-making processes.
Risk Analysis 01/2007; 26(6):1571-80. · 2.37 Impact Factor
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ABSTRACT: After the global eradication of wild polioviruses, the risk of paralytic poliomyelitis from polioviruses will still exist and require active management. Possible reintroductions of poliovirus that can spread rapidly in unprotected populations present challenges to policymakers. For example, at least one outbreak will likely occur due to circulation of a neurovirulent vaccine-derived poliovirus after discontinuation of oral poliovirus vaccine and also could possibly result from the escape of poliovirus from a laboratory or vaccine production facility or from an intentional act. In addition, continued vaccination with oral poliovirus vaccines would result in the continued occurrence of vaccine-associated paralytic poliomyelitis. The likelihood and impacts of reintroductions in the form of poliomyelitis outbreaks depend on the policy decisions and on the size and characteristics of the vulnerable population, which change over time. A plan for managing these risks must begin with an attempt to characterize and quantify them as a function of time. This article attempts to comprehensively characterize the risks, synthesize the existing data available for modeling them, and present quantitative risk estimates that can provide a starting point for informing policy decisions.
Risk Analysis 01/2007; 26(6):1471-505. · 2.37 Impact Factor
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ABSTRACT: The feasibility of global polio eradication is being questioned as a result of continued transmission in a few localities that act as sources for outbreaks elsewhere. Perhaps the greatest challenge is in India, where transmission has persisted in Uttar Pradesh and Bihar despite high coverage with multiple doses of vaccine. We estimate key parameters governing the seasonal epidemics in these areas and show that high population density and poor sanitation cause persistence by not only facilitating transmission of poliovirus but also severely compromising the efficacy of the trivalent vaccine. We analyze strategies to counteract this and show that switching to monovalent vaccine may finally interrupt virus transmission.
Science 12/2006; 314(5802):1150-3. · 31.20 Impact Factor
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ABSTRACT: Since the launch of the Global Polio Eradication Initiative (GPEI) in 1988, knowledge as to the nature of circulating polioviruses and the challenges to their interruption has increased tremendously, particularly during the period 2000-2005. By January 2006, however, the systematic application of the standard polio eradication strategies, combined with recent refinements, had reduced the number of countries with ongoing transmission of indigenous wild polioviruses to just four (Nigeria, India, Pakistan, and Afghanistan), the lowest ever in history. In addition, only 8 of the 22 areas that had been re-infected by wild poliovirus in 2003-2005 still required large-scale 'mop-up' activities and circulating vaccine-derived poliovirus (cVDPV) outbreaks were being readily addressed. This progress, despite new challenges late in the GPEI, was greatly facilitated by a range of solutions that included two new monovalent oral polio vaccines (mOPVs), new and robust international standards for polio outbreak response, and renewed political commitment across the remaining infected countries.
Biologicals 07/2006; 34(2):133-9. · 1.70 Impact Factor
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ABSTRACT: Once the eradication of wild poliovirus has been confirmed, the public health benefits of routine immunization with OPV will no longer outweigh the burden of disease either due to paralysis caused by OPV (vaccine associated paralytic polio), or by outbreaks caused by circulating vaccine-derived polioviruses. The eventual cessation of OPV use in routine immunization programmes worldwide will become necessary to assure a lasting eradication of polio. As the world moves towards polio eradication and its certification, preparations are therefore being intensified for OPV cessation, and the risk management framework for safe OPV cessation is being put in place. The framework includes bio-containment of all known poliovirus and potentially infected substances, development of an international stockpile of oral polio vaccine, ensuring a mechanism for continued global surveillance and response for polio after eradication has been certified, and national policies if countries decide to continue vaccinating with inactivated polio vaccine (IPV). It is ironic that the vaccine on which the world has depended for polio eradication will itself become a risk to eradication once the transmission of wild poliovirus has been interrupted. Final preparations for the eventual global and simultaneous cessation of OPV will require the same level of international cooperation and coordination that has brought the world to the verge of polio eradication.
Biologicals 07/2006; 34(2):75-9. · 1.70 Impact Factor
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The Lancet 06/2006; 367(9521):1462-4. · 38.28 Impact Factor
