[show abstract][hide abstract] ABSTRACT: This analysis estimates the association between smoking-related knowledge and smoking behaviour in a Chinese context. To identify the specific knowledge most directly related to smoking status, we used a novel latent variable analysis approach to adjust for the high correlations between different measures of knowledge about tobacco smoking.
Data are from the Global Adult Tobacco China Survey, a nationally representative sample of 13 354 household-dwelling individuals 15 years of age or older. Multinomial logistic regressions estimated the association between smoking status (ie, never smoked, current smoker or past smoker) and four smoking-related beliefs: whether or not smoking causes lung cancer, heart attack and stroke, and whether or not low-tar cigarettes are less harmful. A latent variable approach reassessed these associations while taking into account the general level of knowledge about smoking.
After demographic variables and general knowledge about smoking had been controlled for, the belief that low-tar cigarettes are not less harmful was more prevalent in persons who had never smoked than in current smokers (OR=1.3 (95% CI 1.0 to 1.7) in men and OR=2.8 (95% CI 1.3 to 5.9) in women); this association was even stronger when past smokers and current smokers were compared (OR=2.1 (95% CI 1.5 to 3.0) in men and OR=5.0 (95% CI 1.3 to 20.1) in women).
Compared with those who have never smoked and those who have ceased smoking, current smokers in China are more likely to believe that low-tar cigarettes are less harmful than regular cigarettes.
[show abstract][hide abstract] ABSTRACT: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2010 (GBD 2010) constitutes an unprecedented collaboration of 488 scientists from 303 institutions in 50 countries, focusing on describing the state of health around the world using a uniform method. Results for the world and 21 regions for 1990 and 2010 have been reported for 291 diseases and injuries, 1160 sequelae of these causes, and 67 risk factors or clusters of risk factors. 1–7 The burden of each disease, injury, or risk factor has been quantifi ed in terms of deaths, years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). Although only global and regional results have been reported so far, the underlying unit of analysis for GBD 2010 was 187 countries. Age-specifi c mortality was analysed for each country for each year from 1970 to 2010. Causes of death were estimated for each country from 1990 to 2010 with country-specifi c data and models. Disease and injury sequelae were estimated in most cases with a Bayesian meta-regression method (DisMod-MR) that includes estimation of systematic diff erences in incidence, prevalence, or excess mortality between countries within regions. 5 Systematic analysis of risk factor exposure, excess health risks associated with each risk–outcome pair, and counterfactual minimum risk levels of exposure were used to compute attributable burden. On the basis of these analyses, GBD 2010 provides a complete assessment of the burden of diseases, injuries, and risk factors for 187 countries including quantifi cation of uncertainty in the estimates for 1990 and 2010, albeit with important limitations because of the scarcity of data for some outcomes in some countries and the need to use a range of statistical models to generate estimates. The availability of standardised estimates for each of the 187 countries over time provides an unprecedented opportunity to undertake comparative assessments, to benchmark country performance in control of critical diseases, injuries, and risks, and to stimulate evidence-based action. Most of the scientists in the GBD 2010 collaboration volunteered their own time or raised their own funds to participate. 8 A key motivation for them was the opportunity to publish more detailed analyses of data, methods, and results for specifi c diseases, injuries, and risk factors. Many reports are in submission or in preparation and provide more detail for specifi c diseases, injuries, risk factors, and countries. 9 Although we expect that these reports will be important contributions to the scientifi c literature, we recognise that country results from the GBD are a global public good that could be a useful or even critical input into a more informed national, regional, and global dialogue about health challenges. Already, governments of several developed and developing countries have approached us seeking access to more detailed results. Because we believe that the dissemination and rapid availability of the detailed results is a moral imperative, we are providing global access to these details on March 5, 2013, through a series of online visualisations. To allow suffi cient time for members of the GBD 2010 collaboration to report their own research fi ndings, we will defer dissemination of public-use datasets of the underlying results presented in the visualisations until Sept 1, 2013. In this way, we believe that we can provide global access to these important results while at the same time respecting the intellectual investment of the collaboration's mem-bers. Nonetheless, anticipating that some governments might wish to have immediate access to more detailed information as an input to national policy dialogue, we have provided and will continue to provide detailed national disease burden results on request. We also encourage use of the visualisations or snapshots of their images for teaching, communication, and other educational purposes. Alongside the reporting of global and regional results in The Lancet, fi ve data visualisations were made available in December, 2012. For visualisation of country-level data, the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) has developed new visualisations with expanded scope and functionality, which are being launched on March 5. Data visualisations can make complex information accessible and interpretable without advanced statistical or epidemiological training. The primary purpose of these visualisations is to allow health specialists, policy makers, the media, donors, and the general public to explore the patterns of health in diff erent age and sex groups, countries, and time periods. Providing information on patterns of health to this broad audience could enhance the scope and quality of national, regional, and global dialogue about the main For data visualisations see
The Lancet 03/2013; 381(9871):965-70. · 39.06 Impact Factor
[show abstract][hide abstract] ABSTRACT: As natural experiments, famines provide a unique opportunity to test the health consequences of nutritional deprivation during the critical period of early life. Using data on 4972 Chinese born between 1956 and 1963 who participated in a large mental health epidemiology survey conducted between 2001 and 2005, we investigated the potential impact of exposure to the 1959-1961 Chinese Famine in utero and during the early postnatal life on adult mental illness. The risk of mental illness was assessed with the 12-item General Health Questionnaire (GHQ-12) and eight other risk factors, and the famine impact on adult mental illness was estimated by difference-in-difference models. Results show that compared with unexposed women born in 1963, women born during the famine years (1959-1961) had higher GHQ scores (increased by 0.95 points; CI: 0.26, 1.65) and increased risk of mental illness (OR = 2.80; CI: 1.23, 6.39); those born in 1959 were the most affected and had GHQ scores 1.52 points higher (CI: 0.42, 2.63) and an OR for mental illness of 4.99 (CI: 1.68, 14.84). Compared to men in the 1963 birth cohort, men born during the famine had lower GHQ scores (decreased by 0.89 points; CI: -1.59, -0.20) and a nonsignificant decrease in the risk of mental illness (OR = 0.60; CI: 0.26, 1.40). We speculate that the long-term consequences of early-life famine exposure include both the selection of the hardiest and the enduring deleterious effects of famine on those who survive. The greater biological vulnerability and stronger natural selection in utero of male versus female fetuses during severe famine may result in a stronger selection effect among men than women, obscuring the deleterious impact of famine exposure on the risk of mental illness in men later in life.
Social Science [?] Medicine 12/2012; · 2.73 Impact Factor
[show abstract][hide abstract] ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Although outcomes among people with schizophrenia differ by social context, this has rarely been examined across rural v. urban settings. For individuals with schizophrenia, employment is widely recognised as a critical ingredient of social integration. AIMS: To compare employment for people with schizophrenia in rural v. urban settings in China. METHOD: In a large community-based study in four provinces representing 12% of China's population, we identified 393 people with schizophrenia (112 never treated). We used adjusted Poisson regression models to compare employment for those living in rural (n = 297) v. urban (n = 96) settings. RESULTS: Although rural and urban residents had similar impairments due to symptoms, rural residents were three times more likely to be employed (adjusted relative risk 3.27, 95% CI 2.11-5.07, P<0.001). CONCLUSIONS: People with schizophrenia have greater opportunities to use their capacities for productive work in rural than urban settings in China. Contextual mechanisms that may explain this result offer a useful focus for future research.
The British journal of psychiatry: the journal of mental science 12/2012; · 6.62 Impact Factor
[show abstract][hide abstract] ABSTRACT: Non-fatal health outcomes from diseases and injuries are a crucial consideration in the promotion and monitoring of individual and population health. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) studies done in 1990 and 2000 have been the only studies to quantify non-fatal health outcomes across an exhaustive set of disorders at the global and regional level. Neither effort quantified uncertainty in prevalence or years lived with disability (YLDs).
Of the 291 diseases and injuries in the GBD cause list, 289 cause disability. For 1160 sequelae of the 289 diseases and injuries, we undertook a systematic analysis of prevalence, incidence, remission, duration, and excess mortality. Sources included published studies, case notification, population-based cancer registries, other disease registries, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, hospital discharge data, ambulatory care data, household surveys, other surveys, and cohort studies. For most sequelae, we used a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR, designed to address key limitations in descriptive epidemiological data, including missing data, inconsistency, and large methodological variation between data sources. For some disorders, we used natural history models, geospatial models, back-calculation models (models calculating incidence from population mortality rates and case fatality), or registration completeness models (models adjusting for incomplete registration with health-system access and other covariates). Disability weights for 220 unique health states were used to capture the severity of health loss. YLDs by cause at age, sex, country, and year levels were adjusted for comorbidity with simulation methods. We included uncertainty estimates at all stages of the analysis.
Global prevalence for all ages combined in 2010 across the 1160 sequelae ranged from fewer than one case per 1 million people to 350 000 cases per 1 million people. Prevalence and severity of health loss were weakly correlated (correlation coefficient -0·37). In 2010, there were 777 million YLDs from all causes, up from 583 million in 1990. The main contributors to global YLDs were mental and behavioural disorders, musculoskeletal disorders, and diabetes or endocrine diseases. The leading specific causes of YLDs were much the same in 2010 as they were in 1990: low back pain, major depressive disorder, iron-deficiency anaemia, neck pain, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, anxiety disorders, migraine, diabetes, and falls. Age-specific prevalence of YLDs increased with age in all regions and has decreased slightly from 1990 to 2010. Regional patterns of the leading causes of YLDs were more similar compared with years of life lost due to premature mortality. Neglected tropical diseases, HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, malaria, and anaemia were important causes of YLDs in sub-Saharan Africa.
Rates of YLDs per 100 000 people have remained largely constant over time but rise steadily with age. Population growth and ageing have increased YLD numbers and crude rates over the past two decades. Prevalences of the most common causes of YLDs, such as mental and behavioural disorders and musculoskeletal disorders, have not decreased. Health systems will need to address the needs of the rising numbers of individuals with a range of disorders that largely cause disability but not mortality. Quantification of the burden of non-fatal health outcomes will be crucial to understand how well health systems are responding to these challenges. Effective and affordable strategies to deal with this rising burden are an urgent priority for health systems in most parts of the world.
Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
The Lancet 12/2012; 380(9859):2163-96. · 39.06 Impact Factor
[show abstract][hide abstract] ABSTRACT: Measuring disease and injury burden in populations requires a composite metric that captures both premature mortality and the prevalence and severity of ill-health. The 1990 Global Burden of Disease study proposed disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) to measure disease burden. No comprehensive update of disease burden worldwide incorporating a systematic reassessment of disease and injury-specific epidemiology has been done since the 1990 study. We aimed to calculate disease burden worldwide and for 21 regions for 1990, 2005, and 2010 with methods to enable meaningful comparisons over time.
We calculated DALYs as the sum of years of life lost (YLLs) and years lived with disability (YLDs). DALYs were calculated for 291 causes, 20 age groups, both sexes, and for 187 countries, and aggregated to regional and global estimates of disease burden for three points in time with strictly comparable definitions and methods. YLLs were calculated from age-sex-country-time-specific estimates of mortality by cause, with death by standardised lost life expectancy at each age. YLDs were calculated as prevalence of 1160 disabling sequelae, by age, sex, and cause, and weighted by new disability weights for each health state. Neither YLLs nor YLDs were age-weighted or discounted. Uncertainty around cause-specific DALYs was calculated incorporating uncertainty in levels of all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, prevalence, and disability weights.
Global DALYs remained stable from 1990 (2·503 billion) to 2010 (2·490 billion). Crude DALYs per 1000 decreased by 23% (472 per 1000 to 361 per 1000). An important shift has occurred in DALY composition with the contribution of deaths and disability among children (younger than 5 years of age) declining from 41% of global DALYs in 1990 to 25% in 2010. YLLs typically account for about half of disease burden in more developed regions (high-income Asia Pacific, western Europe, high-income North America, and Australasia), rising to over 80% of DALYs in sub-Saharan Africa. In 1990, 47% of DALYs worldwide were from communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders, 43% from non-communicable diseases, and 10% from injuries. By 2010, this had shifted to 35%, 54%, and 11%, respectively. Ischaemic heart disease was the leading cause of DALYs worldwide in 2010 (up from fourth rank in 1990, increasing by 29%), followed by lower respiratory infections (top rank in 1990; 44% decline in DALYs), stroke (fifth in 1990; 19% increase), diarrhoeal diseases (second in 1990; 51% decrease), and HIV/AIDS (33rd in 1990; 351% increase). Major depressive disorder increased from 15th to 11th rank (37% increase) and road injury from 12th to 10th rank (34% increase). Substantial heterogeneity exists in rankings of leading causes of disease burden among regions.
Global disease burden has continued to shift away from communicable to non-communicable diseases and from premature death to years lived with disability. In sub-Saharan Africa, however, many communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders remain the dominant causes of disease burden. The rising burden from mental and behavioural disorders, musculoskeletal disorders, and diabetes will impose new challenges on health systems. Regional heterogeneity highlights the importance of understanding local burden of disease and setting goals and targets for the post-2015 agenda taking such patterns into account. Because of improved definitions, methods, and data, these results for 1990 and 2010 supersede all previously published Global Burden of Disease results.
Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
The Lancet 12/2012; 380(9859):2197-223. · 39.06 Impact Factor
[show abstract][hide abstract] ABSTRACT: Quantification of the disease burden caused by different risks informs prevention by providing an account of health loss different to that provided by a disease-by-disease analysis. No complete revision of global disease burden caused by risk factors has been done since a comparative risk assessment in 2000, and no previous analysis has assessed changes in burden attributable to risk factors over time.
We estimated deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs; sum of years lived with disability [YLD] and years of life lost [YLL]) attributable to the independent effects of 67 risk factors and clusters of risk factors for 21 regions in 1990 and 2010. We estimated exposure distributions for each year, region, sex, and age group, and relative risks per unit of exposure by systematically reviewing and synthesising published and unpublished data. We used these estimates, together with estimates of cause-specific deaths and DALYs from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010, to calculate the burden attributable to each risk factor exposure compared with the theoretical-minimum-risk exposure. We incorporated uncertainty in disease burden, relative risks, and exposures into our estimates of attributable burden.
In 2010, the three leading risk factors for global disease burden were high blood pressure (7·0% [95% uncertainty interval 6·2-7·7] of global DALYs), tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke (6·3% [5·5-7·0]), and alcohol use (5·5% [5·0-5·9]). In 1990, the leading risks were childhood underweight (7·9% [6·8-9·4]), household air pollution from solid fuels (HAP; 7·0% [5·6-8·3]), and tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke (6·1% [5·4-6·8]). Dietary risk factors and physical inactivity collectively accounted for 10·0% (95% UI 9·2-10·8) of global DALYs in 2010, with the most prominent dietary risks being diets low in fruits and those high in sodium. Several risks that primarily affect childhood communicable diseases, including unimproved water and sanitation and childhood micronutrient deficiencies, fell in rank between 1990 and 2010, with unimproved water and sanitation accounting for 0·9% (0·4-1·6) of global DALYs in 2010. However, in most of sub-Saharan Africa childhood underweight, HAP, and non-exclusive and discontinued breastfeeding were the leading risks in 2010, while HAP was the leading risk in south Asia. The leading risk factor in Eastern Europe, most of Latin America, and southern sub-Saharan Africa in 2010 was alcohol use; in most of Asia, North Africa and Middle East, and central Europe it was high blood pressure. Despite declines, tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke remained the leading risk in high-income north America and western Europe. High body-mass index has increased globally and it is the leading risk in Australasia and southern Latin America, and also ranks high in other high-income regions, North Africa and Middle East, and Oceania.
Worldwide, the contribution of different risk factors to disease burden has changed substantially, with a shift away from risks for communicable diseases in children towards those for non-communicable diseases in adults. These changes are related to the ageing population, decreased mortality among children younger than 5 years, changes in cause-of-death composition, and changes in risk factor exposures. New evidence has led to changes in the magnitude of key risks including unimproved water and sanitation, vitamin A and zinc deficiencies, and ambient particulate matter pollution. The extent to which the epidemiological shift has occurred and what the leading risks currently are varies greatly across regions. In much of sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risks are still those associated with poverty and those that affect children.
Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
The Lancet 12/2012; 380(9859):2224-60. · 39.06 Impact Factor