Marcel Tanner

Ifakara Health Institute, Dār es Salām, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania

Are you Marcel Tanner?

Claim your profile

Publications (588)2838.13 Total impact

  • Source
    [Show abstract] [Hide abstract]
    ABSTRACT: The malaria vaccine RTS,S induces antibodies against the Plasmodium falciparum circumsporozoite protein (CSP) and the concentration of Immunoglobulin G (IgG) against the repeat region of CSP following vaccination is associated with protection from P. falciparum malaria. So far, only the quantity of anti-CSP IgG has been measured and used to predict vaccination success, although quality (measured as avidity) of the antigen-antibody interaction shall be important since only a few sporozoites circulate for a short time after an infectious mosquito bite, likely requiring fast and strong binding. Quantity and avidity of anti-CSP IgG in African infants who received RTS,S/AS01E in a 0-1-2-month or a 0-1-7-month schedule in a phase 2 clinical trial were measured by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Antibody avidity was defined as the proportion of IgG able to bind in the presence of a chaotropic agent (avidity index). The effect of CSP-specific IgG concentration and avidity on protective efficacy was modelled using Cox proportional hazards. After the third dose, quantity and avidity were similar between the two vaccination schedules. IgG avidity after the last vaccine injection was not associated with protection, whereas the change in avidity following second and third RTS,S/AS01E injection was associated with a 54% risk reduction of getting malaria (hazard ratio: 0.46; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.22-0.99) in those participants with a change in avidity above the median. The change in anti-CSP IgG concentration following second and third injection was associated with a 77% risk reduction of getting malaria (hazard ratio: 0.23, 95% CI: 0.11-0.51). Change in IgG response between vaccine doses merits further evaluation as a surrogate marker for RTS,S efficacy. Identifier NCT00436007 .
    Malaria Journal 12/2015; 14(1). DOI:10.1186/s12936-015-0605-7 · 3.11 Impact Factor
  • Source

    The Lancet Global Health 11/2015; 3(11). DOI:10.1016/S2214-109X(15)00157-6 · 10.04 Impact Factor
  • Source
    [Show abstract] [Hide abstract]
    ABSTRACT: Background The RTS,S/AS01 vaccine targets the circumsporozoite protein of Plasmodium falciparum and has partial protective efficacy against clinical and severe malaria disease in infants and children. We investigated whether the vaccine efficacy was specific to certain parasite genotypes at the circumsporozoite protein locus. Methods We used polymerase chain reaction-based next-generation sequencing of DNA extracted from samples from 4985 participants to survey circumsporozoite protein polymorphisms. We evaluated the effect that polymorphic positions and haplotypic regions within the circumsporozoite protein had on vaccine efficacy against first episodes of clinical malaria within 1 year after vaccination. Results In the per-protocol group of 4577 RTS,S/AS01-vaccinated participants and 2335 control-vaccinated participants who were 5 to 17 months of age, the 1-year cumulative vaccine efficacy was 50.3% (95% confidence interval [CI], 34.6 to 62.3) against clinical malaria in which parasites matched the vaccine in the entire circumsporozoite protein C-terminal (139 infections), as compared with 33.4% (95% CI, 29.3 to 37.2) against mismatched malaria (1951 infections) (P=0.04 for differential vaccine efficacy). The vaccine efficacy based on the hazard ratio was 62.7% (95% CI, 51.6 to 71.3) against matched infections versus 54.2% (95% CI, 49.9 to 58.1) against mismatched infections (P=0.06). In the group of infants 6 to 12 weeks of age, there was no evidence of differential allele-specific vaccine efficacy. Conclusions These results suggest that among children 5 to 17 months of age, the RTS,S vaccine has greater activity against malaria parasites with the matched circumsporozoite protein allele than against mismatched malaria. The overall vaccine efficacy in this age category will depend on the proportion of matched alleles in the local parasite population; in this trial, less than 10% of parasites had matched alleles. (Funded by the National Institutes of Health and others.).
    New England Journal of Medicine 10/2015; 373(21). DOI:10.1056/NEJMoa1505819 · 55.87 Impact Factor
  • [Show abstract] [Hide abstract]
    ABSTRACT: Sanaria Inc. has developed methods to manufacture, purify and cryopreserve aseptic Plasmodium falciparum (Pf) sporozoites (SPZ), and is using this platform technology to develop an injectable PfSPZ-based vaccine that provides high grade, durable protection against infection with Pf malaria. Several candidate vaccines are being developed and tested, including PfSPZ Vaccine, in which the PfSPZ are attenuated by irradiation, PfSPZ-CVac, in which fully infectious PfSPZ are attenuated in vivo by concomitant administration of an anti-malarial drug, and PfSPZ-GA1, in which the PfSPZ are attenuated by gene knockout. Forty-three research groups in 15 countries, organized as the International PfSPZ Consortium (I-PfSPZ-C), are collaborating to advance this program by providing intellectual, clinical, and financial support. Fourteen clinical trials of these products have been completed in the USA, Europe and Africa, two are underway and at least 12 more are planned for 2015-2016 in the US (four trials), Germany (2 trials), Tanzania, Kenya, Mali, Burkina Faso, Ghana and Equatorial Guinea. Sanaria anticipates application to license a first generation product in late 2017, initially to protect adults, and in 2018 to protect all persons >6 months of age for at least six months. Improved vaccine candidates will be advanced as needed until the following requirements have been met: long-term protection against natural transmission, excellent safety and tolerability, and operational feasibility for population-wide administration. Here we describe the three most developed whole PfSPZ vaccine candidates, associated clinical trials, initial plans for licensure and deployment, and long-term objectives for a final product suitable for mass administration to achieve regional malaria elimination and eventual global eradication.
    Vaccine 10/2015; DOI:10.1016/j.vaccine.2015.09.096 · 3.62 Impact Factor
  • Source
    [Show abstract] [Hide abstract]
    ABSTRACT: Background: Lymphatic filariasis (LF) is a neglected tropical disease for which more than a billion people in 73 countries are thought to be at-risk. At a global level, the efforts against LF are designed as an elimination program. However, current efforts appear to aim for elimination in some but not all endemic areas. With the 2020 goal of elimination looming, we set out to develop plausible scale-up scenarios to reach global elimination and eradication. We predict the duration of mass drug administration (MDA) necessary to reach local elimination for a variety of transmission archetypes using an existing model of LF transmission, estimate the number of treatments required for each scenario, and consider implications of rapid scale-up. Methodology: We have defined four scenarios that differ in their geographic coverage and rate of scale-up. For each scenario, country-specific simulations and calculations were performed that took into account the pre-intervention transmission intensity, the different vector genera, drug regimen, achieved level of population coverage, previous progress toward elimination, and potential programmatic delays due to mapping, operations, and administration. Principal findings: Our results indicate that eliminating LF by 2020 is unlikely. If MDA programs are drastically scaled up and expanded, the final round of MDA for LF eradication could be delivered in 2028 after 4,159 million treatments. However, if the current rate of scale-up is maintained, the final round of MDA to eradicate LF may not occur until 2050. Conclusions/significance: Rapid scale-up of MDA will decrease the amount of time and treatments required to reach LF eradication. It may also propel the program towards success, as the risk of failure is likely to increase with extended program duration.
    PLoS Neglected Tropical Diseases 10/2015; 9(10):e0004147. DOI:10.1371/journal.pntd.0004147 · 4.45 Impact Factor
  • [Show abstract] [Hide abstract]
    ABSTRACT: The incidence and prevalence of fungal infections in Tanzania remains unknown. We assessed the annual burden in the general population and among populations at risk. Data were extracted from 2012 reports of the Tanzanian AIDS program, WHO, reports, Tanzanian census, and from a comprehensive PubMed search. We used modelling and HIV data to estimate the burdens of Pneumocystis jirovecii pneumonia (PCP), cryptococcal meningitis (CM) and candidiasis. Asthma, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease and tuberculosis data were used to estimate the burden of allergic bronchopulmonary aspergillosis (ABPA) and chronic pulmonary aspergillosis (CPA). Burdens of candidaemia and Candida peritonitis were derived from critical care and/or cancer patients' data. In 2012, Tanzania's population was 43.6 million (mainland) with 1 500 000 people reported to be HIV-infected. Estimated burden of fungal infections was: 4412 CM, 9600 PCP, 81 051 and 88 509 oral and oesophageal candidiasis cases respectively. There were 10 437 estimated posttuberculosis CPA cases, whereas candidaemia and Candida peritonitis cases were 2181 and 327 respectively. No reliable data exist on blastomycosis, mucormycosis or fungal keratitis. Over 3% of Tanzanians suffer from serious fungal infections annually, mostly related to HIV. Cryptococcosis and PCP are major causes of mycoses-related deaths. National surveillance of fungal infections is urgently needed.
    Mycoses 10/2015; 58:70-79. DOI:10.1111/myc.12390 · 2.24 Impact Factor
  • Source
    [Show abstract] [Hide abstract]
    ABSTRACT: Background: In sub-Saharan Africa, the prevalence of HIV among married and cohabiting couples is substantial. Information about the underlying social drivers of HIV transmission in couples is critical for the development of structural approaches to HIV prevention, but not readily available. We explored the association between social drivers, practices, and HIV status among stable couples in Ifakara, Tanzania. Design: Using a cross-sectional design, we analyzed data from a sample of 3,988 married or cohabiting individuals, aged 15 years and older from the MZIMA adult health community cohort study of 2013. Sociodemographic factors (sex, income, age, and education), gender norms (perceived acceptability for a wife to ask her partner to use a condom when she knows he is HIV positive), marriage characteristics (being in a monogamous or a polygamous marriage, being remarried), sexual behavior practices (lifetime number of sexual partners and concurrent sexual partners), health system factors (ever used voluntary HIV counseling and testing), and lifestyle patterns (alcohol use) were used to explore the odds of being HIV positive, with 95% confidence intervals. Results: Prevalence of HIV/AIDS was 6.7% (5.9% males and 7.1% females). Gender norms, that is, perception that a woman is not justified to ask her husband to use a condom even when she knows he has a disease (adjusted odds ratio AOR=1.51, 95% CI 1.06-2.17), marital characteristics, that is, being remarried (AOR=1.49, 95% CI 1.08-2.04), and sexual behavior characteristics, that is, lifetime number of sexual partners (2-4: AOR=1.47, 95% CI 1.02-2.11; 5+: AOR=1.61, 95% CI 1.05-2.47) were the main independent predictors of HIV prevalence. Conclusions: Among married or cohabiting individuals, the key social drivers/practices that appeared to make people more vulnerable for HIV are gender norms, marriage characteristics (being remarried), and sexual behavior practices (lifetime number of sexual partners). Married and cohabiting couples are an important target group for HIV prevention efforts in Tanzania. In addition to individual interventions, structural interventions are needed to address the gender norms, remarriage, and sexual practices that shape differential vulnerability to HIV in stable couples.
    Global Health Action 09/2015; 8. DOI:10.3402/gha.v8.28941 · 1.93 Impact Factor
  • Source
    [Show abstract] [Hide abstract]
    ABSTRACT: Background: We report a cluster-randomised trial of a home-based counselling strategy, designed for large-scale implementation, in a population of 1.2 million people in rural southern Tanzania. We hypothesised that the strategy would improve neonatal survival by around 15%. Methods and Findings: In 2010 we trained 824 female volunteers to make three home visits to women and their families during pregnancy and two visits to them in the first few days of the infant’s life in 65 wards, selected randomly from all 132 wards in six districts in Mtwara and Lindi regions, constituting typical rural areas in Southern Tanzania. The remaining wards were comparison areas. Participants were not blinded to the intervention. The primary analysis was an intention-to-treat analysis comparing the neonatal mortality (day 0–27) per 1,000 live births in intervention and comparison wards based on a representative survey in 185,000 households in 2013 with a response rate of 90%. We included 24,381 and 23,307 live births between July 2010 and June 2013 and 7,823 and 7,555 live births in the last year in intervention and comparison wards, respectively. We also compared changes in neonatal mortality and newborn care practices in intervention and comparison wards using baseline census data from 2007 including 225,000 households and 22,243 births in five of the six intervention districts. Amongst the 7,823 women with a live birth in the year prior to survey in intervention wards, 59% and 41% received at least one volunteer visit during pregnancy and postpartum, respectively. Neonatal mortality reduced from 35.0 to 30.5 deaths per 1,000 live births between 2007 and 2013 in the five districts, respectively. There was no evidence of an impact of the intervention on neonatal survival (odds ratio [OR] 1.1, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.9–1.2, p = 0.339). Newborn care practices reported by mothers were better in intervention than in comparison wards, including immediate breastfeeding (42% of 7,287 versus 35% of 7,008, OR 1.4, CI 1.3–1.6, p < 0.001), feeding only breast milk for the first 3 d (90% of 7,557 versus 79% of 7,307, OR 2.2, 95% CI 1.8–2.7, p < 0.001), and clean hands for home delivery (92% of 1,351 versus 88% of 1,799, OR 1.5, 95% CI 1.0–2.3, p = 0.033). Facility delivery improved dramatically in both groups from 41% of 22,243 in 2007 and was 82% of 7,820 versus 75% of 7,553 (OR 1.5, 95% CI 1.2–2.0, p = 0.002) in intervention and comparison wards in 2013. Methodological limitations include our inability to rule out some degree of leakage of the intervention into the comparison areas and response bias for newborn care behaviours. Conclusion: Neonatal mortality remained high despite better care practices and childbirth in facilities becoming common. Public health action to improve neonatal survival in this setting should include a focus on improving the quality of facility-based childbirth care. Trial Registration: NCT01022788
    PLoS Medicine 09/2015; 12(9):e1001881. DOI:10.1371/journal.pmed.1001881 · 14.43 Impact Factor
  • Source
    [Show abstract] [Hide abstract]
    ABSTRACT: Background: Clinical trials of the RTS,S malaria vaccine have completed Phase III and the vaccine is on track for registration. Before making decisions about implementation, it is essential to prepare the ground for introducing the vaccine by assessing awareness and willingness to use malaria vaccines and to provide policy makers with evidence-based information on the best strategies to engage communities to manage the introduction of malaria vaccine in Tanzania. Methods: In November 2011, as part of a large cross-sectional study of all 23 regions of Tanzania (mainland Tanzania and Zanzibar) was conducted during Tanzanian Integrated Measles Campaign (IMC) survey. In this study, the variables of interests were awareness and willingness to use a malaria vaccine. The main outcome measure was willingness to use a malaria vaccine. Logistic regression was used to examine the influence of predictive factors. Results: A representative sample of 5502 (out of 6210) women, aged 18 years or older and with children under 11 months old, was selected to participate, using random sampling probability. Awareness of the forthcoming malaria vaccine, 11.8 % of participants in mainland Tanzania responded affirmatively, compared to 3.4 % in Zanzibar (p value <0.0001). 94.5 % of all respondents were willing to vaccinate their children against malaria, with a slight difference between mainland Tanzania (94.3 %) and Zanzibar (96.8 %) (p value = 0.0167). Conclusions: Although mothers had low awareness and high willingness to use malaria vaccine, still availability of malaria vaccine RTS,S will compliment other existing malaria interventions and it will be implemented through the Immunization, Vaccines and Biologicals (IVB) programme (formerly EPI). The information generated from this study can aid policy makers in planning and setting priorities for introducing and implementing the malaria vaccine.
    Malaria Journal 09/2015; 14(1):355. DOI:10.1186/s12936-015-0889-7 · 3.11 Impact Factor
  • Source
    [Show abstract] [Hide abstract]
    ABSTRACT: This appendix provides further methodological detail, supplemental figures and more detailed results for the comparative risk assessment.
  • Source
    [Show abstract] [Hide abstract]
    ABSTRACT: Background The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution. Methods Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk–outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990–2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol. Findings All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8–58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1–43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5–89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa. Interpretation Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks.
    The Lancet 09/2015; DOI:10.1016/S0140-6736(15)00128-2 · 45.22 Impact Factor
  • Source

  • Source
    [Show abstract] [Hide abstract]
    ABSTRACT: Background The Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) aims to bring together all available epidemiological data using a coherent measurement framework, standardised estimation methods, and transparent data sources to enable comparisons of health loss over time and across causes, age–sex groups, and countries. The GBD can be used to generate summary measures such as disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and healthy life expectancy (HALE) that make possible comparative assessments of broad epidemiological patterns across countries and time. These summary measures can also be used to quantify the component of variation in epidemiology that is related to sociodemographic development. Methods We used the published GBD 2013 data for age-specific mortality, years of life lost due to premature mortality (YLLs), and years lived with disability (YLDs) to calculate DALYs and HALE for 1990, 1995, 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2013 for 188 countries. We calculated HALE using the Sullivan method; 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) represent uncertainty in age-specific death rates and YLDs per person for each country, age, sex, and year. We estimated DALYs for 306 causes for each country as the sum of YLLs and YLDs; 95% UIs represent uncertainty in YLL and YLD rates. We quantified patterns of the epidemiological transition with a composite indicator of sociodemographic status, which we constructed from income per person, average years of schooling after age 15 years, and the total fertility rate and mean age of the population. We applied hierarchical regression to DALY rates by cause across countries to decompose variance related to the sociodemographic status variable, country, and time. Findings Worldwide, from 1990 to 2013, life expectancy at birth rose by 6·2 years (95% UI 5·6–6·6), from 65·3 years (65·0–65·6) in 1990 to 71·5 years (71·0–71·9) in 2013, HALE at birth rose by 5·4 years (4·9–5·8), from 56·9 years (54·5–59·1) to 62·3 years (59·7–64·8), total DALYs fell by 3·6% (0·3–7·4), and age-standardised DALY rates per 100 000 people fell by 26·7% (24·6–29·1). For communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders, global DALY numbers, crude rates, and age-standardised rates have all declined between 1990 and 2013, whereas for non–communicable diseases, global DALYs have been increasing, DALY rates have remained nearly constant, and age-standardised DALY rates declined during the same period. From 2005 to 2013, the number of DALYs increased for most specific non-communicable diseases, including cardiovascular diseases and neoplasms, in addition to dengue, food-borne trematodes, and leishmaniasis; DALYs decreased for nearly all other causes. By 2013, the five leading causes of DALYs were ischaemic heart disease, lower respiratory infections, cerebrovascular disease, low back and neck pain, and road injuries. Sociodemographic status explained more than 50% of the variance between countries and over time for diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and other common infectious diseases; maternal disorders; neonatal disorders; nutritional deficiencies; other communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional diseases; musculoskeletal disorders; and other non-communicable diseases. However, sociodemographic status explained less than 10% of the variance in DALY rates for cardiovascular diseases; chronic respiratory diseases; cirrhosis; diabetes, urogenital, blood, and endocrine diseases; unintentional injuries; and self-harm and interpersonal violence. Predictably, increased sociodemographic status was associated with a shift in burden from YLLs to YLDs, driven by declines in YLLs and increases in YLDs from musculoskeletal disorders, neurological disorders, and mental and substance use disorders. In most country-specific estimates, the increase in life expectancy was greater than that in HALE. Leading causes of DALYs are highly variable across countries. Interpretation Global health is improving. Population growth and ageing have driven up numbers of DALYs, but crude rates have remained relatively constant, showing that progress in health does not mean fewer demands on health systems. The notion of an epidemiological transition—in which increasing sociodemographic status brings structured change in disease burden—is useful, but there is tremendous variation in burden of disease that is not associated with sociodemographic status. This further underscores the need for country-specific assessments of DALYs and HALE to appropriately inform health policy decisions and attendant actions.
    The Lancet 08/2015; DOI:10.1016/S0140-6736(15)61340-X · 45.22 Impact Factor
  • Source
    [Show abstract] [Hide abstract]
    ABSTRACT: This appendix provides two supplementary figures and ten supplementary tables.
  • Source
    [Show abstract] [Hide abstract]
    ABSTRACT: Figure appendix: Change in YLD rate from 1990 to 2013 for 188 countries and 21 regions (changes have been decomposed into 31 major cause groups and countries are ordered by the YLD rate in 1990).
  • Source
    [Show abstract] [Hide abstract]
    ABSTRACT: This appendix provides further methodological detail, supplemental figures, and more detailed results for incidence, prevalence, and years of life lived with disability. The appendix is organised in broad sections following the structure of the main paper.
  • Source
    [Show abstract] [Hide abstract]
    ABSTRACT: Background Up-to-date evidence about levels and trends in disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) is an essential input into global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013), we estimated these quantities for acute and chronic diseases and injuries for 188 countries between 1990 and 2013. Methods Estimates were calculated for disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and YLDs using GBD 2010 methods with some important refinements. Results for incidence of acute disorders and prevalence of chronic disorders are new additions to the analysis. Key improvements include expansion to the cause and sequelae list, updated systematic reviews, use of detailed injury codes, improvements to the Bayesian meta-regression method (DisMod-MR), and use of severity splits for various causes. An index of data representativeness, showing data availability, was calculated for each cause and impairment during three periods globally and at the country level for 2013. In total, 35 620 distinct sources of data were used and documented to calculated estimates for 301 diseases and injuries and 2337 sequelae. The comorbidity simulation provides estimates for the number of sequelae, concurrently, by individuals by country, year, age, and sex. Disability weights were updated with the addition of new population-based survey data from four countries. Findings Disease and injury were highly prevalent; only a small fraction of individuals had no sequelae. Comorbidity rose substantially with age and in absolute terms from 1990 to 2013. Incidence of acute sequelae were predominantly infectious diseases and short-term injuries, with over 2 billion cases of upper respiratory infections and diarrhoeal disease episodes in 2013, with the notable exception of tooth pain due to permanent caries with more than 200 million incident cases in 2013. Conversely, leading chronic sequelae were largely attributable to non-communicable diseases, with prevalence estimates for asymptomatic permanent caries and tension-type headache of 2·4 billion and 1·6 billion, respectively. The distribution of the number of sequelae in populations varied widely across regions, with an expected relation between age and disease prevalence. YLDs for both sexes increased from 537·6 million in 1990 to 764·8 million in 2013 due to population growth and ageing, whereas the age-standardised rate decreased little from 114·87 per 1000 people to 110·31 per 1000 people between 1990 and 2013. Leading causes of YLDs included low back pain and major depressive disorder among the top ten causes of YLDs in every country. YLD rates per person, by major cause groups, indicated the main drivers of increases were due to musculoskeletal, mental, and substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and chronic respiratory diseases; however HIV/AIDS was a notable driver of increasing YLDs in sub-Saharan Africa. Also, the proportion of disability-adjusted life years due to YLDs increased globally from 21·1% in 1990 to 31·2% in 2013. Interpretation Ageing of the world's population is leading to a substantial increase in the numbers of individuals with sequelae of diseases and injuries. Rates of YLDs are declining much more slowly than mortality rates. The non-fatal dimensions of disease and injury will require more and more attention from health systems. The transition to non-fatal outcomes as the dominant source of burden of disease is occurring rapidly outside of sub-Saharan Africa. Our results can guide future health initiatives through examination of epidemiological trends and a better understanding of variation across countries.
    The Lancet 08/2015; 386(9995):743–800. DOI:10.1016/S0140-6736(15)60692-4 · 45.22 Impact Factor
  • Source
    [Show abstract] [Hide abstract]
    ABSTRACT: The Malaria Policy Advisory Committee to the World Health Organization held its seventh meeting in Geneva, Switzerland from 5 to 7 March 2015. This article provides a summary of the discussions, conclusions and meeting recommendations. Meeting sessions included: an update on the Greater Mekong Subregion elimination strategy; an update on the RTS,S vaccine; G6PD testing to support the safe use of anti-relapse therapy for Plasmodium vivax; update from the Vector Control Advisory Group; newly proposed evidence reviews or consultations on malaria terminology, malaria in pregnancy, and the feasibility of eradication; as well as updates from the World Health Organization Global Malaria Programme regarding their strategy update and policy setting processes. Policy statements, position statements, and guidelines that arise from the Malaria Policy Advisory Committee meeting conclusions and recommendations will be formally issued and disseminated to World Health Organization Member States by the World Health Organization Global Malaria Programme.
  • Source

  • Source
    [Show abstract] [Hide abstract]
    ABSTRACT: Although global efforts in the past decade have halved the number of deaths due to malaria, there are still an estimated 219 million cases of malaria a year, causing more than half a million deaths. In this forum article, we asked experts working in malaria research and control to discuss the ways in which malaria might eventually be eradicated. Their collective views highlight the challenges and opportunities, and explain how multi-factorial and integrated processes could eventually make malaria eradication a reality.
    BMC Medicine 07/2015; 13(1):167. DOI:10.1186/s12916-015-0384-6 · 7.25 Impact Factor

Publication Stats

19k Citations
2,838.13 Total Impact Points


  • 2009-2015
    • Ifakara Health Institute
      Dār es Salām, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania
    • Institut de Formation et de Recherche Démographiques
      Jaúnde, Centre Region, Cameroon
  • 1998-2015
    • Universität Basel
      • Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute (Swiss TPH)
      Bâle, Basel-City, Switzerland
  • 1981-2015
    • Swiss Tropical and Public Health Institute
      • Department of Epidemiology and Public Health
      Bâle, Basel-City, Switzerland
  • 2014
    • Umeå University
      Umeå, Västerbotten, Sweden
  • 2011-2013
    • London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine
      • Faculty of Infectious and Tropical Diseases
      Londinium, England, United Kingdom
    • University of Queensland 
      • School of Population Health
      Brisbane, Queensland, Australia
    • University of Tuebingen
      • Department of Tropical Medicine
      Tübingen, Baden-Württemberg, Germany
    • Eawag: Das Wasserforschungs-Institut des ETH-Bereichs
      Duebendorf, Zurich, Switzerland
  • 2010-2011
    • Centre Suisse De Recherches Scientifiques En Côte D'Ivoire
      Abijan, Lagunes, Ivory Coast
  • 2008
    • National Institute of Parasitic Diseases
      Shanghai, Shanghai Shi, China
  • 2007
    • University of Nebraska Medical Center
      • College of Pharmacy
      Omaha, Nebraska, United States
  • 2006
    • Jiangsu Institute of Parasitic Diseases
      Wu-hsi, Jiangsu Sheng, China
    • University of Abobo-Adjamé
      Abijan, Lagunes, Ivory Coast
  • 2001-2004
    • Princeton University
      • Office of Population Research
      Princeton, New Jersey, United States
    • University of Barcelona
      Barcino, Catalonia, Spain
  • 2002
    • Chinese Center For Disease Control And Prevention
      Peping, Beijing, China
  • 1996-2001
    • Hospital Clínic de Barcelona
      • Servicio de Microbiología
      Barcino, Catalonia, Spain
    • University of Oxford
      Oxford, England, United Kingdom
  • 1999
    • Doctors Without Borders
      Lutetia Parisorum, Île-de-France, France
  • 1997
    • Johns Hopkins University
      • Department of International Health
      Baltimore, Maryland, United States
  • 1994
    • National Institute for Medical Research (NIMR)
      Dār es Salām, Dar es Salaam, Tanzania
  • 1986-1990
    • University of Geneva
      Genève, Geneva, Switzerland