Publications (10)23.41 Total impact
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Article: Forecasting age-related macular degeneration through the year 2050: the potential impact of new treatments.
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ABSTRACT: To forecast age-related macular degeneration (AMD) and its consequences in the United States through the year 2050 with different treatment scenarios. We simulated cases of early AMD, choroidal neovascularization (CNV), geographic atrophy (GA), and AMD-attributable visual impairment and blindness with 5 universal treatment scenarios: (1) no treatment; (2) focal laser and photodynamic therapy (PDT) for CNV; (3) vitamin prophylaxis at early-AMD incidence with focal laser/PDT for CNV; (4) no vitamin prophylaxis followed by focal laser treatment for extra and juxtafoveal CNV and anti-vascular endothelial growth factor treatment; and (5) vitamin prophylaxis at early-AMD incidence followed by CNV treatment, as in scenario 4. Cases of early AMD increased from 9.1 million in 2010 to 17.8 million in 2050 across all scenarios. In non-vitamin-receiving scenarios, cases of CNV and GA increased from 1.7 million in 2010 to 3.8 million in 2050 (25% lower in vitamin-receiving scenarios). Cases of visual impairment and blindness increased from 620 000 in 2010 to 1.6 million in 2050 when given no treatment and were 2.4%, 22.0%, 16.9%, and 34.5% lower in scenarios 2, 3, 4, and 5, respectively. Prevalence of AMD will increase substantially by 2050, but the use of new therapies can mitigate its effects.Archives of ophthalmology 05/2009; 127(4):533-40. · 3.86 Impact Factor -
Article: Comparing cost-of-illness estimates from alternative approaches: an application to diabetes.
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ABSTRACT: To compare disease cost estimates from two commonly used approaches. Pooled Medical Expenditure Panel Survey (MEPS) data for 1998-2003. We compared regression-based (RB) and attributable fraction (AF) approaches for estimating disease-attributable costs with an application to diabetes. The RB approach used results from econometric models of disease costs, while the AF approach used epidemiologic formulas for diabetes-attributable fractions combined with the total costs for seven conditions that result from diabetes. We used SAS version 9.1 to create a dataset that combined data from six consecutive years of MEPS. The RB approach produced higher estimates of diabetes-attributable medical spending ($52.9 billion in 2004 dollars) than the AF approach ($37.1 billion in 2004 dollars). RB model estimates may in part be higher because of the challenges of implementing the two approaches in a similar manner, but may also be higher because they capture the costs of increased treatment intensity for those with the disease. We recommend using the RB approach for estimating disease costs whenever individual-level data on health care spending are available and when the presence of the disease affects treatment costs for other conditions, as in the case of diabetes.Health Services Research 03/2009; 44(1):303-20. · 2.16 Impact Factor -
Article: Projection of diabetic retinopathy and other major eye diseases among people with diabetes mellitus: United States, 2005-2050.
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ABSTRACT: To estimate the number of people with diabetic retinopathy (DR), vision-threatening DR (VTDR), glaucoma, and cataracts among Americans 40 years or older with diagnosed diabetes mellitus for the years 2005-2050. Using published prevalence data of DR, VTDR, glaucoma, and cataracts and data from the National Health Interview Survey and the US Census Bureau, we projected the number of Americans with diabetes with these eye conditions. The number of Americans 40 years or older with DR and VTDR will triple in 2050, from 5.5 million in 2005 to 16.0 million for DR and from 1.2 million in 2005 to 3.4 million for VTDR. Increases among those 65 years or older will be more pronounced (2.5 million to 9.9 million for DR and 0.5 million to 1.9 million for VTDR). The number of cataract cases among whites and blacks 40 years or older with diabetes will likely increase 235% by 2050, and the number of glaucoma cases among Hispanics with diabetes 65 years or older will increase 12-fold. Future increases in the number of Americans with diabetes will likely lead to significant increases in the number with DR, glaucoma, and cataracts. Our projections may help policy makers anticipate future demands for health care resources and possibly guide the development of targeted interventions. Efforts to prevent diabetes and to optimally manage diabetes and its complications are needed.Archives of ophthalmology 01/2009; 126(12):1740-7. · 3.86 Impact Factor -
Article: Allocating HIV prevention resources: a tool for state and local decision making.
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ABSTRACT: The CDC provides funding for HIV prevention activities and state and local decision-makers must allocate these funds. The implementation of a resource allocation tool designed to facilitate this process that incorporates concepts of efficiency and equity as well as CDC mandates on the use of community planning groups is demonstrated, showing how information obtained from the resource allocation tool can be used to guide the policy analysis. The demonstration uses a simplified example based on data from Florida. The tool quantifies the inherent trade-offs associated with efficiency and equity and allows decision-makers to explore different ways of achieving equity. Given the underlying epidemiological model, results are not necessarily linear so common proportionality assumptions do not hold. However, a sense of equity can be provided by implementing various metrics allowing the policy maker flexibility in their decision process. By quantifying the impact of policy choices in terms of efficiency, cost, and distribution, the resource allocation tool makes the decision process more transparent and permits more informed choices.Health Policy 04/2008; 87(3):342-9. · 1.51 Impact Factor -
Article: Cost-effectiveness of hospital vaccination programs in North Carolina.
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ABSTRACT: Although influenza and pneumonia are largely vaccine-preventable, vaccination coverage rates are well below Healthy People 2010 goals. The aim of this study was to examine the costs and cost-effectiveness of three provider-based vaccination interventions in the hospital setting: standing orders programs (SOPs), physician reminders (PRs), and pre-printed orders (PPOs). Data on program operating costs and the numbers of patients who received influenza or pneumococcal vaccinations were collected from nine North Carolina hospitals. Results demonstrated that the additional cost per patient vaccinated in 2004 was US dollars 58 for SOPs, US dollars 90 for PRs, and US dollars 412 for PPOs. These findings suggest that SOPs are a cost-effective approach for increasing adult vaccination coverage rates in hospital settings.Vaccine 03/2007; 25(8):1484-96. · 3.77 Impact Factor -
Article: The costs and impacts of testing for hepatitis C virus antibody in public STD clinics.
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ABSTRACT: To estimate the cost and cost-effectiveness of testing sexually transmitted disease (STD) clinic subgroups for antibodies to hepatitis C virus (HCV). HCV counseling, testing, and referral (CTR) costs were estimated using data from two STD clinics and the literature, and are reported in 2006 dollars. Effectiveness of HCV CTR was defined as the estimated percentage of clinic clients in subgroups targeted for HCV antibody (anti-HCV) testing who had a true positive test and returned for their test results. We estimated the cost per true positive injection drug user (IDU) who returned for anti-HCV test results and the cost-effectiveness of expanding HCV CTR to non-IDU subgroups. The estimated cost per true positive IDU who returned for test results was $54. The cost-effectiveness of expanding HCV CTR to non-IDU subgroups ranged from $179 to $2,986. Our estimates were most sensitive to variations in HCV prevalence, the cost of testing, and the rate of client return. Based on national data, testing IDUs in the STD clinic setting is highly cost-effective. Some clinics may find that it is cost-effective to expand testing to non-IDU men older than 40 who report more than 100 lifetime sex partners. STD clinics can use study estimates to assess the feasibility and desirability of expanding HCV CTR beyond IDUs.Public Health Reports 02/2007; 122 Suppl 2:55-62. · 1.27 Impact Factor -
Article: Impact of the CDC's Section 317 Immunization Grants Program funding on childhood vaccination coverage.
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ABSTRACT: The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's Section 317 Grants Program is the main source of funding for state and jurisdictional immunization programs, yet no study has evaluated its direct impact on vaccination coverage rates. Therefore, we used a fixed-effects model and data collected from 56 US jurisdictions to estimate the impact of Section 317 financial assistance immunization grants on childhood vaccination coverage rates from 1997 to 2003. Our results showed that increases in Section 317 funding were significantly and meaningfully associated with higher rates of vaccination coverage; a 10 dollars increase in per capita funding corresponded with a 1.6-percentage-point increase in vaccination coverage. Policymakers charged with funding public health programs should consider this study's findings, which indicate that money allocated to vaccine activities translates directly into higher vaccine coverage rates.American Journal of Public Health 10/2006; 96(9):1548-53. · 3.93 Impact Factor -
Article: A dynamic Markov model for forecasting diabetes prevalence in the United States through 2050.
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ABSTRACT: This study develops forecasts of the number of people with diagnosed diabetes and diagnosed diabetes prevalence in the United States through the year 2050. A Markov modeling framework is used to generate forecasts by age, race and ethnicity, and sex. The model forecasts the number of individuals in each of three states (diagnosed with diabetes, not diagnosed with diabetes, and death) in each year using inputs of estimated diagnosed diabetes prevalence and incidence; the relative risk of mortality from diabetes compared with no diabetes; and U.S. Census Bureau estimates of current population, live births, net migration, and the mortality rate of the general population. The projected number of people with diagnosed diabetes rises from 12.0 million in 2000 to 39.0 million in 2050, implying an increase in diagnosed diabetes prevalence from 4.4% in 2000 to 9.7% in 2050.Health Care Management Science 09/2003; 6(3):155-64. · 1.05 Impact Factor -
Article: A Dynamic Markov Model for Forecasting Diabetes Prevalence in the United States through 2050
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ABSTRACT: This study develops forecasts of the number of people with diagnosed diabetes and diagnosed diabetes prevalence in the United States through the year 2050. A Markov modeling framework is used to generate forecasts by age, race and ethnicity, and sex. The model forecasts the number of individuals in each of three states (diagnosed with diabetes, not diagnosed with diabetes, and death) in each year using inputs of estimated diagnosed diabetes prevalence and incidence; the relative risk of mortality from diabetes compared with no diabetes; and U.S. Census Bureau estimates of current population, live births, net migration, and the mortality rate of the general population. The projected number of people with diagnosed diabetes rises from 12.0 million in 2000 to 39.0 million in 2050, implying an increase in diagnosed diabetes prevalence from 4.4% in 2000 to 9.7% in 2050.Health Care Management Science 07/2003; 6(3):155-164. · 1.05 Impact Factor -
Article: A tool for the economic analysis of mass prophylaxis operations with an application to H1N1 influenza vaccination clinics.
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ABSTRACT: This article uses the 2009 H1N1 influenza vaccination program experience to introduce a cost analysis approach that may be relevant for planning mass prophylaxis operations, such as vaccination clinics at public health centers, work sites, schools, or pharmacy-based clinics. These costs are important for planning mass influenza vaccination activities and are relevant for all public health emergency preparedness scenarios requiring countermeasure dispensing. We demonstrate how costs vary depending on accounting perspective, staffing composition, and other factors. We also describe a mass vaccination clinic budgeting tool that clinic managers may use to estimate clinic costs and to examine how costs vary depending on the availability of volunteers or donated supplies and on the number of patients vaccinated per hour. Results from pilot tests with school-based H1N1 influenza vaccination clinic managers are described. The tool can also contribute to planning efforts for universal seasonal influenza vaccination.Journal of public health management and practice: JPHMP 17(1):E22-8. · 0.96 Impact Factor
Top co-authors
Top Journals
- Health Care Management Science (2)
- Archives of ophthalmology (2)
- Public Health Reports (1)
- Health Policy (1)
- Vaccine (1)
Institutions
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2007–2009
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RTI International
Durham, NC, USA
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2008
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Naval Postgraduate School
Monterey, CA, USA
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2003
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Centers for Disease Control and Prevention
- Division of Diabetes Translation
Druid Hills, GA, USA
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