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ABSTRACT: The 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) is approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration for adults, but its role in older adults is unclear.
To compare PCV13 strategies to currently recommended vaccination strategies in adults aged ≥65 years.
Using a Markov model, the cost effectiveness of PCV13 and the 23-valent pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine (PPSV23), alone or in combination, was estimated, in adults aged either 65 years or 75 years. No prior vaccination, prior vaccination, and vaccine hyporesponsiveness scenarios were examined. Pneumococcal disease rates, indirect childhood PCV13 effects, and costs were estimated using CDC Active Bacterial Core surveillance data and U.S. national databases. An expert panel estimated vaccine-related protection. A societal perspective was taken and outcomes were discounted 3% per year.
In those aged 65 years, single-dose PCV13 cost $11,300 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained compared to no vaccination; at ages 65 and 80 years, PCV13 cost $83,000/QALY. In those aged 75 years, single-dose PCV13 cost $62,800/QALY gained. PPSV23 cost more and was less effective than PCV13. Results were sensitive to varying vaccine effectiveness and indirect effect estimates. In hyporesponsiveness scenarios, cost-effectiveness ratios increased by 37%-78% for single-dose strategies and 29%-35% for multiple-dose strategies.
Single-dose PCV13 strategies are likely to be economically reasonable in older adults.
American journal of preventive medicine 04/2013; 44(4):373-81. · 4.24 Impact Factor
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ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Although prior randomized trials have demonstrated that procalcitonin-guided antibiotic therapy effectively reduces antibiotic use in patients with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP), uncertainties remain regarding use of procalcitonin protocols in practice. OBJECTIVE: To estimate the cost-effectiveness of procalcitonin protocols in CAP. DESIGN: Decision analysis using published observational and clinical trial data, with variation of all parameter values in sensitivity analyses. PATIENTS: Hypothetical patient cohorts who were hospitalized for CAP. INTERVENTIONS: Procalcitonin protocols vs. usual care. MAIN MEASURES: Costs and cost per quality adjusted life year gained. KEY RESULTS: When no differences in clinical outcomes were assumed, consistent with clinical trials and observational data, procalcitonin protocols cost $10-$54 more per patient than usual care in CAP patients. Under these assumptions, results were most sensitive to variations in: antibiotic cost, the likelihood that antibiotic therapy was initiated less frequently or over shorter durations, and the likelihood that physicians were nonadherent to procalcitonin protocols. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses, incorporating procalcitonin protocol-related changes in quality of life, found that protocol use was unlikely to be economically reasonable if physician protocol nonadherence was high, as observational study data suggest. However, procalcitonin protocols were favored if they decreased hospital length of stay. CONCLUSIONS: Procalcitonin protocol use in hospitalized CAP patients, although promising, lacks physician nonadherence and resource use data in routine care settings, which are needed to evaluate its potential role in patient care.
Journal of General Internal Medicine 03/2013; · 2.83 Impact Factor
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ABSTRACT: Objectives: Despite the benefits of vaccination and guidelines for their use, the rates for influenza and pneumococcal vaccination remain below the 90% goal set by Healthy People 2010 for persons 65 years and older. Standing order programs (SOPs) authorize vaccination administration without physician orders. Here we examine the cost-effectiveness of SOPs to improve both pneumococcal and influenza vaccination rates in outpatient settings for individuals 65 years and older. Study Design: Decision analysis-based cost-effectiveness analysis. Methods: A Markov model was constructed to estimate the incremental cost-effectiveness of outpatient SOPs for pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine (PPSV) and influenza vaccination in hypothetical US population cohorts 65 years and older. Vaccination rate improvement data were obtained from the medical literature. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Active Bacterial Core surveillance data and US national databases were used to estimate costs and outcomes. Results: SOPs cost $14,171 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained compared with no program from a third-party payer perspective. In 1-way sensitivity analyses, the SOP strategy cost less than $50,000/QALY if SOPs increased absolute vaccination rates by 4% or more (base case: 18%), annual SOP costs were less than $21 per person (base case: $4.60), or annual influenza incidence was 4% or more (base case: 10%). Model results were insensitive to other individual parameter variations, and were supported by a probabilistic sensitivity analysis. Conclusions: SOPs used to improve PPSV and influenza vaccination rates in outpatient settings is a promising and economically favorable investment, with cost-effectiveness analysis results remaining robust to parameter variation over clinically plausible ranges.
The American journal of managed care 01/2013; 19(1):e30-7. · 2.46 Impact Factor
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ABSTRACT: INTRODUCTION AND HYPOTHESIS: A decision analysis model was developed comparing conservative and surgical treatments in the management of synthetic mesh exposure following vaginal prolapse repair. We hypothesized that surgical excision would be favored. METHODS: A Markov decision analysis model compared initial management with conservative versus surgical treatment allowing for the complexities of multiple attempts at conservative management and/or surgical mesh excision. Model assumptions were obtained from published literature or through surrogate values and expert consensus when not available in published resources. Transitions were made between Markov states at 6-week intervals and overall utility was compared over 2 years. Multiple one-way sensitivity analyses were performed. RESULTS: Initial surgical excision was favored, with an average yearly quality adjusted life year (QALY) value of 0.947 compared to 0.939 for conservative treatment. This difference is less than the published minimally important difference (MID) for utility values. One-way sensitivity analyses revealed that surgical excision is favored when the probability of being healed with conservative therapy is less than 80 % (base case 57.1 %) and when the probability of being healed from surgery is greater than 78 % (base case 93.2 %). Few thresholds confirmed model robustness. CONCLUSIONS: While our model favored surgical excision over conservative treatment in the initial management of mesh exposure following vaginal prolapse repair with synthetic mesh, the difference in QALYs between strategies was less than the MID. Therefore the strategies are likely similar overall. Individual patient characteristics may ultimately drive clinical decision-making for this surgical complication.
International Urogynecology Journal 06/2012; · 1.83 Impact Factor
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ABSTRACT: Erythropoiesis-stimulating agents (ESAs) are associated with serious adverse events, and maintaining hemoglobin levels within a narrow range can be difficult. We examined the quality of ESA prescribing and monitoring in pharmacist-managed ESA clinics versus usual care in patients with non-dialysis-dependent chronic kidney disease (NDD-CKD).
Historical cohort.
Outpatients receiving ESAs for NDD-CKD at 10 Veterans Affairs Medical Centers with both pharmacist-managed ESA clinics (n = 314) and physician-based care (ie, usual care; n = 91) and 6 sites with usual care only (n = 167) on January 1, 2009, were followed up for 6 months.
Type/site of care (ie, pharmacist-managed ESA clinic, usual care at ESA clinic site, usual-care site).
Primary outcomes were proportion of hemoglobin values in the target range of 10-12 g/dL, ESA dose, and frequency of hemoglobin monitoring. Factors associated with hemoglobin values out of target range were identified using multinomial logistic regression.
More hemoglobin values were in the target range in pharmacist-managed ESA clinics (71.1% vs 56.9% for usual-care sites; P < 0.001). The average 30-day dose of darbepoetin was 163 μg in pharmacist-managed ESA clinic patients versus 240 μg in usual-care site patients and 258 μg in usual-care patients at ESA clinic sites. For epoetin, corresponding average 30-day doses were 44,890 versus 47,141 and 57,436 IU. Veterans in pharmacist-managed ESA clinics had more hemoglobin measurements on average (5.8 vs 3.6 in usual-care sites and 3.8 in usual care at ESA clinic sites; P = 0.007). In the multinomial model, usual care was associated with hemoglobin levels out of target range, whereas heart failure and diabetes were associated with values in range.
We could not assess whether different hemoglobin targets were used by usual-care providers.
Relative to usual care, pharmacist-managed clinics provided improved quality of ESA dosing and monitoring for patients with NDD-CKD.
American Journal of Kidney Diseases 05/2012; 60(3):371-9. · 5.43 Impact Factor
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ABSTRACT: To identify the optimal target of a future intervention to improve physician decision making in trauma triage.
Comparison of incremental costeffectiveness ratios (ICERs) of current practice with hypothetical interventions targeting either physicians' decisional thresholds (attitudes toward transferring patients to trauma centers) or perceptual sensitivity (ability to identify patients who meet transfer guidelines).
Taking the societal perspective, we constructed a Markov decision model, drawing estimates of triage patterns, mortality, utilities, and costs from the literature. We assumed that an intervention to change the decisional threshold would reduce undertriage but also increase overtriage more than an intervention to change perceptual sensitivity. We performed a series of 1-way sensitivity analyses and studied the most influential variables in a Monte Carlo simulation.
The ICER of an intervention to change perceptual sensitivity was $62,799 per qualityadjusted life-year (QALY) gained compared with current practice. The ICER of an intervention to change the decisional threshold was $104,975/ QALY gained compared with an intervention to change perceptual sensitivity. These findings were most sensitive to the relative cost of hospitalizing patients with moderate to severe injuries and their relative risk of dying at non-trauma centers. In probabilistic sensitivity analyses, at a willingness-to-pay threshold of $100,000/QALY gained, there was a 62% likelihood that an intervention to change perceptual sensitivity was the most cost-effective alternative.
Even a minor investment in changing decision making in trauma triage could greatly improve quality of care. The optimal intervention depends on the characteristics of the individual trauma systems.
The American journal of managed care 03/2012; 18(3):e91-e100. · 2.46 Impact Factor
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ABSTRACT: The cost-effectiveness of 13-valent pneumococcal conjugate vaccine (PCV13) compared with 23-valent pneumococcal polysaccharide vaccine (PPSV23) among US adults is unclear.
To estimate the cost-effectiveness of PCV13 vaccination strategies in adults.
A Markov state-transition model, lifetime time horizon, societal perspective. Simulations were performed in hypothetical cohorts of US 50-year-olds. Vaccination strategies and effectiveness estimates were developed by a Delphi expert panel; indirect (herd immunity) effects resulting from childhood PCV13 vaccination were extrapolated based on observed PCV7 effects. Data sources for model parameters included Centers for Disease Control and Prevention Active Bacterial Core surveillance, National Hospital Discharge Survey and Nationwide Inpatient Sample data, and the National Health Interview Survey.
Pneumococcal disease cases prevented and incremental costs per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) gained.
In the base case scenario, administration of PCV13 as a substitute for PPSV23 in current recommendations (ie, vaccination at age 65 years and at younger ages if comorbidities are present) cost $28,900 per QALY gained compared with no vaccination and was more cost-effective than the currently recommended PPSV23 strategy. Routine PCV13 at ages 50 and 65 years cost $45,100 per QALY compared with PCV13 substituted in current recommendations. Adding PPSV23 at age 75 years to PCV13 at ages 50 and 65 years gained 0.00002 QALYs, costing $496,000 per QALY gained. Results were robust in sensitivity analyses and alternative scenarios, except when low PCV13 effectiveness against nonbacteremic pneumococcal pneumonia was assumed or when greater childhood vaccination indirect effects were modeled. In these cases, PPSV23 as currently recommended was favored.
Overall, PCV13 vaccination was favored compared with PPSV23, but the analysis was sensitive to assumptions about PCV13 effectiveness against nonbacteremic pneumococcal pneumonia and the magnitude of potential indirect effects from childhood PCV13 on pneumococcal serotype distribution.
JAMA The Journal of the American Medical Association 02/2012; 307(8):804-12. · 30.03 Impact Factor
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ABSTRACT: To study the cost effectiveness of positron emission tomography-computerized tomography (PET-CT) scanning in the management of the neck after chemoradiotherapy (CRT).
Cost effectiveness and decision analysis model.
A cost-effectiveness analysis comparing up-front neck dissection to serial PET-CT imaging in a hypothetical clinical scenario of debate. A patient with an oropharygeal cancer with pretreatment N2 disease having a complete response was considered. Standardized costs were obtained using national databases. A literature review in PubMed was performed to obtain information on incidence, probabilities, and range for various clinical events in the algorithm.
PET-CT strategy costs an average of $14,492 per patient. Neck dissection had a 0.6% greater efficacy in controlling neck disease with a $22,433 incremental cost.
Our results strongly support the use of PET-CT imaging as the more cost-effective strategy for surveillance of neck after completion of definitive CRT compared to up-front neck dissection.
The Laryngoscope 02/2012; 122(2):311-4. · 1.75 Impact Factor
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ABSTRACT: The most effective diagnostic strategy for the very small, incidentally detected solid renal mass is uncertain. We assessed the cost-effectiveness of adding percutaneous biopsy or active surveillance to the diagnosis of a 2 cm or less solid renal mass.
A Markov state transition model was developed to observe a hypothetical cohort of healthy 60-year-old men with an incidentally detected, 2 or less cm solid renal mass, comparing percutaneous biopsy, immediate treatment and active surveillance. The primary outcomes assessed were the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio measured by cost per life-year gained at a willingness to pay threshold of $50,000. Model results were assessed by sensitivity analysis.
Immediate treatment was the highest cost, most effective diagnostic strategy, providing the longest overall survival of 18.53 life-years. Active surveillance was the lowest cost, least effective diagnostic strategy. On cost-effectiveness analysis using a societal willingness to pay threshold of $50,000 active surveillance was the preferred choice at a $75,000 willingness to pay threshold while biopsy and treatment were acceptable ($56,644 and $70,149 per life-year, respectively). When analysis was adjusted for quality of life, biopsy dominated immediate treatment as the most cost-effective diagnostic strategy at $33,840 per quality adjusted life-year gained.
Percutaneous biopsy may have a greater role in optimizing the diagnosis of an incidentally detected, 2 cm or less solid renal mass.
The Journal of urology 11/2011; 187(1):39-43. · 4.02 Impact Factor
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ABSTRACT: To estimate the probability of successful sterilization after an hysteroscopic or laparoscopic sterilization procedure.
An evidence-based clinical decision analysis using a Markov model was performed to estimate the probability of a successful sterilization procedure using laparoscopic sterilization, hysteroscopic sterilization in the operating room, and hysteroscopic sterilization in the office. Procedure and follow-up testing probabilities for the model were estimated from published sources.
In the base case analysis, the proportion of women having a successful sterilization procedure on the first attempt is 99% for laparoscopic sterilization, 88% for hysteroscopic sterilization in the operating room, and 87% for hysteroscopic sterilization in the office. The probability of having a successful sterilization procedure within 1 year is 99% with laparoscopic sterilization, 95% for hysteroscopic sterilization in the operating room, and 94% for hysteroscopic sterilization in the office. These estimates for hysteroscopic success include approximately 6% of women who attempt hysteroscopically but are ultimately sterilized laparoscopically. Approximately 5% of women who have a failed hysteroscopic attempt decline further sterilization attempts.
Women choosing laparoscopic sterilization are more likely than those choosing hysteroscopic sterilization to have a successful sterilization procedure within 1 year. However, the risk of failed sterilization and subsequent pregnancy must be considered when choosing a method of sterilization.
Obstetrics and Gynecology 08/2011; 118(2 Pt 1):273-9. · 4.73 Impact Factor
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ABSTRACT: : Overactive bladder is a common disease for which current pharmaceutical therapy is often unsatisfactory. Newer modalities, including Botox and InterStim, can be used when antimuscarinics fail. We compare InterStim and Botox using decision analysis.
: A Markov state transition decision analysis model was constructed using values for efficacy and complications from the literature. Overall utility was compared monthly. Multiple 1-way sensitivity analyses were performed.
: For every month during the simulation, overall utility was higher for Botox than InterStim. After 54 months, cumulative utility was 3.86 versus 3.74, favoring Botox for an average yearly quality-adjusted life-year value of 0.86 versus 0.83. All differences were less than minimally important differences for utilities. Few meaningful thresholds were established supporting the robustness of the model.
: Until appropriately powered randomized controlled trials are available, both InterStim and Botox are reasonable and effective strategies with similar outcomes.
Journal of Pelvic Medicine and Surgery 07/2011; 17(4):199-203.
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ABSTRACT: The 2004 US Preventative Services Task Force (USPSTF) guidelines do not recommend routinely screening adults for oral cancer given no proven mortality reduction. A large cluster-randomized controlled screening trial in Kerala, India, in 2005, however, reported a significant reduction in mortality for screened male tobacco and/or alcohol users. In the United States, office-based screening efforts targeting males of high risk (regular use of tobacco and/or alcohol) have been unsuccessful due to poor attendance. Given the newfound screening mortality benefit to this high-risk subpopulation, we sought to ascertain the cost-effectiveness threshold of a yearly, community outreach screening program for males more than 40 years regularly using tobacco and/or alcohol.
Markov decision analysis model; societal perspective.
A literature search was performed to determine event probabilities, health utilities, and cost parameters to serve as model inputs. Screen versus No-Screen strategies were modeled using assumptions and published data. The primary outcome was the difference in costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) between the two cohorts, representing the potential budget for a screening program. One-way sensitivity analysis was performed for several key parameters.
The No-Screen arm was dominated with an incremental cost of $258 and an incremental effectiveness of -0.0414 QALYs. Using the $75,000/QALY metric, the maximum allowable budget for a screening program equals $3,363 ($258 + $3,105) per screened person over a 40-year time course.
Given the significant health benefits and financial savings via early detection in the screened cohort, a community-based screening program targeting high-risk males is likely to be cost-effective.
The Laryngoscope 03/2011; 121(5):952-60. · 1.75 Impact Factor
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ABSTRACT: Influenza is a major cause of preventable morbidity and mortality in the United States, particularly among the elderly. Yet, there remain large disparities in influenza vaccination rates across elderly Caucasian (70%), African-American (50%) and Hispanic (55%) populations, with substantial mortality consequences. In this study, we built a decision-analysis model to estimate the cost-effectiveness of a hypothetical national vaccination program designed to eliminate these disparities in influenza vaccination rates. Taking a societal perspective, we developed a Markov model with a one-year cycle length and lifetime time horizon. In the base case, we conservatively assumed that the cost of promoting the vaccination program was $10 per targeted elder per year and that by year 10, the vaccination rate of the elderly African-American and Hispanic populations would equal the vaccination rate of the elderly Caucasian population (70%). The cost-effectiveness of the vaccination program compared to no vaccination program was $48,617 per QALY saved. Probabilistic sensitivity analyses suggested that at willingness-to-pay thresholds of $50,000 and $100,000 per QALY saved, the likelihood of the vaccination program being cost-effective was 38% and 92%, respectively. In an analysis using conservative assumptions, we found that a hypothetical program to ameliorate disparities in influenza vaccination rates has a moderate to high likelihood of being cost-effective.
Vaccine 03/2011; 29(19):3525-30. · 3.77 Impact Factor
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ABSTRACT: Hookworm infection is a significant problem worldwide. As development of hookworm vaccine proceeds, it is essential for vaccine developers and manufacturers, policy makers, and other public health officials to understand the potential costs and benefits of such a vaccine. We developed a decision analytic model to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of introducing a hookworm vaccine into two populations in Brazil: school-age children and non-pregnant women of reproductive age. Results suggest that a vaccine would provide not only cost savings, but potential health benefits to both populations. In fact, the most cost-effective intervention strategy may be to combine vaccine with current drug treatment strategies.
Vaccine 02/2011; 29(6):1201-10. · 3.77 Impact Factor
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ABSTRACT: To understand the contribution of intraoperative and postoperative hospital costs to total hospital costs, examine the costs associated with specific hospital services in the postoperative period, and recognize the impact of patient factors on hospital costs.
Case series with chart review.
Large tertiary care teaching hospital system.
Using the Pittsburgh Head and Neck Organ-Specific Database, 119 patients were identified as having total laryngectomy with bilateral selective neck dissection and primary closure from 1999 to 2009. Cost data were obtained for 112 patients. Costs include fixed and variable costs, adjusted to 2010 US dollars using the Consumer Price Index.
Mean total hospital costs were $29,563 (range, $10,915 to $120,345). Operating room costs averaged 24% of total hospital costs, whereas room charges, respiratory therapy, laboratory, pharmacy, and radiology accounted for 38%, 14%, 8%, 7%, and 3%, respectively. Median length of stay was 9 days (range, 6-43), and median Charlson comorbidity index score was 8 (2-16). Patients with ≥1 day in the intensive care unit had significantly higher hospital costs ($46,831 vs $24,601, P < .01). The authors found no significant cost differences with stratification based on previous radiation therapy ($27,598 vs $29,915 with no prior radiation, P = .62) or hospital readmission within 30 days ($29,483 vs $29,609 without readmission, P = .97).
This is one of few studies in surgery and the first in otolaryngology to analyze hospital costs for a relatively standardized procedure. Further work will include cost analysis from multiple centers with investigation of global cost drivers.
Otolaryngology Head and Neck Surgery 02/2011; 144(2):220-4. · 1.72 Impact Factor
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ABSTRACT: To compare the cost-effectiveness of four, six, and eight doses per month of vardenafil in the context of pharmacy benefit decision making.
A Markov model was used to estimate the incremental cost-effectiveness of zero, four, six, or eight doses of vardenafil per month in hypothetical cohorts of 60-year-old male veterans with erectile dysfunction. Efficacy values for vardenafil were obtained from the literature, and vardenafil costs were obtained from Veterans Affairs pharmacy data. The analysis was conducted from a third-party payer perspective with a lifetime horizon, and the effect of parameter uncertainty was explored in one-way and probabilistic sensitivity analyses.
In the base case analysis, the cost per quality-adjusted life-year gained for four doses of vardenafil per month compared with no therapy was $576. Six doses per month compared with four cost $2585/quality-adjusted life-year gained, and eight doses per month compared with six cost $5169/quality-adjusted life-year gained. In one-way sensitivity analyses of six doses per month compared with four, variation of two parameters caused the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio to cross a willingness-to-pay threshold of $20,000: when the increased utility associated with giving two additional doses/month was less than 0.001 (baseline 0.01) and when the cost per dose increased to $15.00 (baseline $1.69).
Although four doses per month of vardenafil was the most cost-effective strategy, the use of six or eight doses per month also compares favorably with other accepted medical treatments. The results were stable across a range of inputs and help to support the current Veterans Affairs policy on the number of vardenafil doses provided per month for erectile dysfunction.
Value in Health 01/2011; 14(1):97-101. · 2.19 Impact Factor
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ABSTRACT: To develop 3 computer simulation models to determine the potential economic effect of using intravenous (IV) antiviral agents to treat hospitalized patients with influenza-like illness, as well as different testing and treatment strategies.
Stochastic decision analytic computer simulation model.
During the 2009 influenza A(H1N1) pandemic, the Food and Drug Administration granted emergency use authorization of IV neuraminidase inhibitors for hospitalized patients with influenza, creating a need for rapid decision analyses to help guide use. We compared the economic value from the societal and third-party payer perspectives of the following 4 strategies for a patient hospitalized with influenza-like illness and unable to take oral antiviral agents: Strategy 1: Administration of IV antiviral agents without polymerase chain reaction influenza testing. Strategy 2: Initiation of IV antiviral treatment, followed by polymerase chain reaction testing to determine whether the treatment should be continued. Strategy 3: Performance of polymerase chain reaction testing, followed by initiation of IV antiviral treatment if the test results are positive. Strategy 4: Administration of no IV antiviral agents. Sensitivity analyses varied the probability of having influenza (baseline, 10%; range, 10%-30%), IV antiviral efficacy (baseline, oral oseltamivir phosphate; range, 25%-75%), IV antiviral daily cost (range, $20-$1000), IV antiviral reduction of illness duration (baseline, 1 day; range, 1-2 days), and ventilated vs nonventilated status of the patient.
When the cost of IV antiviral agents was no more than $500 per day, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio for most of the IV antiviral treatment strategies was less than $10,000 per quality-adjusted life-year compared with no treatment. When the cost was no more than $100 per day, all 3 IV antiviral strategies were even more cost-effective. The order of cost-effectiveness from most to least was strategies 3, 1, and 2. The findings were robust to changing risk of influenza, influenza mortality, IV antiviral efficacy, IV antiviral daily cost, IV antiviral reduction of illness duration, and ventilated vs nonventilated status of the patient for both societal and third-party payer perspectives.
Our study supports the use of IV antiviral treatment for hospitalized patients with influenza-like illness.
The American journal of managed care 01/2011; 17(1):e1-9. · 2.46 Impact Factor
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ABSTRACT: Applying the chronic care model (CCM) for diabetes management helps improve health outcomes and patient care. The CCM was implemented at U.S. Air Force Wilford Hall Medical Center through the Diabetes Outreach Clinic (DOC) in 2006, but its cost-effectiveness in this setting is unknown.
We constructed a Markov decision model to estimate DOC cost-effectiveness compared with usual care (UC) over a 20-year period. Based on empirical, post-intervention demographic and clinical data, we applied United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study risk equations to predict long-term probabilities of developing microvascular or macrovascular complications. Health care system and societal perspectives were considered, discounting costs and benefits at 3% annually. Intervention costs and outcomes were obtained from military data, while other costs, disease progression data, and utilities were drawn from published literature.
From a health care system perspective, the DOC cost $45,495 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY) compared with UC; from a societal perspective, the DOC compared with UC cost $42,051/QALY (when the model started with the uncomplicated diabetes cohort), $61,243/QALY (when starting with the DOC cohort), or $61,813/QALY (when starting with the UC cohort). In one-way sensitivity analyses, results were most sensitive to yearly costs for specialty care visits. In probabilistic sensitivity analysis, the DOC was favored in 51% of model iterations using an acceptability threshold of $50,000/QALY and in 72% at a threshold of $100,000/QALY.
The DOC strategy for diabetes care, performed with the CCM methodology in a military population, appears to be economically reasonable compared with UC.
Journal of diabetes science and technology 01/2011; 5(3):501-13.
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ABSTRACT: Enterovirus 71 (EV71) is a growing public health concern, especially in Asia. A surge of EV71 cases in 2008 prompted authorities in China to go on national alert. While there is currently no treatment for EV71 infections, vaccines are under development. We developed a computer simulation model to determine the potential economic value of an EV71 vaccine for children (<5 years old) in China. Our results suggest that routine vaccination in China (EV71 infection incidence ≈0.04%) may be cost-effective when vaccine cost is $25 and efficacy ≥70% or cost is $10 and efficacy ≥50%. For populations with higher infection risk (≥0.4%), a $50 or $75 vaccine would be highly cost-effective even when vaccine efficacy is as low as 50%.
Vaccine 10/2010; 28(49):7731-6. · 3.77 Impact Factor
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ABSTRACT: We assessed the cost-effectiveness of a community-based, modified Diabetes Prevention Program (DPP) designed to reduce risk factors for type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease.
We developed a Markov decision model to compare costs and effectiveness of a modified DPP intervention with usual care during a 3-year period. Input parameters included costs and outcomes from 2 projects that implemented a community-based modified DPP for participants with metabolic syndrome, and from other sources. The model discounted future costs and benefits by 3% annually.
At 12 months, usual care reduced relative risk of metabolic syndrome by 12.1%. A modified DPP intervention reduced relative risk by 16.2% and yielded life expectancy gains of 0.01 quality-adjusted life-years (3.67 days) at an incremental cost of $34.50 ($3,420 per quality-adjusted life-year gained). In 1-way sensitivity analyses, results were sensitive to probabilities that risk factors would be reduced with or without a modified DPP and that patients would enroll in an intervention, undergo testing, and acquire diabetes with or without an intervention if they were risk-factor-positive. Results were also sensitive to utilities for risk-factor-positive patients. In probabilistic sensitivity analysis, the intervention cost less than $20,000 per quality-adjusted life-year gained in approximately 78% of model iterations.
We consider the modified DPP delivered in community and primary care settings a sound investment.
Preventing chronic disease 09/2010; 7(5):A109. · 1.82 Impact Factor
