[Show abstract][Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: Background: Factors associated with mortality in HIV-infected people in sub-Saharan Africa are widely reported. However rural-urban disparities and their association with all-cause mortality remain unclear. Furthermore, commonly used classical Cox regression ignores unmeasured variables and frailty. Objective: To incorporate frailty in assessing factors associated with mortality in HIV-infected people in rural and urban South Africa. Design: Using data from a prospective cohort following 6,690 HIV-infected participants from Soweto (urban) and Mpumalanga (rural) enrolled from 2003 to 2010; covariates of mortality were assessed by the integrated nested Laplace approximation method. Results: We enrolled 2,221 (33%) rural and 4,469 (67%) urban participants of whom 1,555 (70%) and 3,480 (78%) were females respectively. Median age (IQR) was 36.4 (31.0-44.1) in rural and 32.7 (28.2-38.1) in the urban participants. The mortality rate per 100 person-years was 11 (9.7-12.5) and 4 (3.6-4.5) in the rural and urban participants, respectively. Compared to those not on HAART, rural participants had a reduced risk of mortality if on HAART for 6-12 (HR: 0.20, 95% CI: 0.10-0.39) and >12 months (HR: 0.10, 95% CI: 0.05-0.18). Relative to those not on HAART, urban participants had a lower risk if on HAART >12 months (HR: 0.35, 95% CI: 0.27-0.46). The frailty variance was significant and >1 in rural participants indicating more heterogeneity. Similarly it was significant but <1 in the urban participants indicating less heterogeneity. Conclusion: The frailty model findings suggest an elevated risk of mortality in rural participants relative to the urban participants potentially due to unmeasured variables that could be biological, socio-economic, or healthcare related. Use of robust methods that optimise data and account for unmeasured variables could be helpful in assessing the effect of unknown risk factors thus improving patient management and care in South Africa and elsewhere.
Global Health Action 09/2014; 7(1):25488. DOI:10.3402/gha.v7.25488 · 1.93 Impact Factor
[Show abstract][Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: Few studies have compared hospitalisations before and after antiretroviral therapy (ART) initiation in the same patients. We analysed the cost of hospitalisations among 3,906 adult patients in two South African hospitals, 30% of whom initiated ART. Hospitalisations were 50% and 40% more frequent and 1.5 and 2.6 times more costly at a CD4 cell count <100 cells/mm when compared to 200-350 cells/mm in the pre-ART and ART period, respectively. Mean inpatient cost per patient year was USD 117 (95% confidence interval, CI, 85-158) for patients on ART and USD 72 (95% CI, 56-89) for pre-ART patients. Raising ART eligibility thresholds could avoid the high cost of hospitalisation before and immediately after ART initiation.
[Show abstract][Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: To determine the impact of HAART on incidence, regression, and progression of cytopathological abnormalities in HIV-infected women.
HIV-infected women (N=1123) from Soweto, South Africa underwent serial cervical smears that were analyzed and reported using the Bethesda System. The results of HAART and non-HAART users were compared using two statistical approaches: a survival analysis assessing risk of incident smear abnormality among women with baseline normal smear results; and analysis with marginal models assessing for an association between HAART use and likelihood of regression/progression in consecutive smears.
After multivariate survival analysis, women using HAART with a normal baseline smear were 38% less likely to have an incident smear abnormality during follow-up than nonusers [confidence interval (CI) 0.42-0.91; P=0.01]. Multivariate marginal models analysis identified a significantly increased likelihood (odds ratio 2.61; CI 1.75-3.89; P<0.0001) of regression of cervical lesions among women on HAART.
Our large prospective cohort study adds significant weight to the side of the balance of clinical research supporting the positive impact of HAART on the natural history of human papillomavirus-related cervical disease in HIV-infected women.
AIDS (London, England) 05/2012; 26(13):1645-52. DOI:10.1097/QAD.0b013e32835536a3 · 5.55 Impact Factor
[Show abstract][Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: We studied 1163 sexually-active HIV-infected South African men and women in an urban primary care program to understand patterns of sexual behaviors and whether these behaviors differed by partner HIV status. Overall, 40% reported a HIV-positive partner and 60% a HIV-negative or status unknown partner; and 17.5% reported >2 sex acts in the last 2 weeks, 16.4% unprotected sex in the last 6 months, and 3.7% >1 sex partner in the last 6 months. Antiretroviral therapy (ART) was consistently associated with decreased sexual risk behaviors, as well as with reporting a HIV-negative or status unknown partner. The odds of sexual risk behaviors differed by sex; and were generally higher among participants reporting a HIV-positive partner, but continued among those with a HIV-negative or status unknown partner. These data support ART as a means of HIV prevention. Engaging in sexual risk behaviors primarily with HIV-positive partners was not widely practiced in this setting, emphasizing the need for couples-based prevention.
AIDS and Behavior 04/2011; 16(1):139-50. DOI:10.1007/s10461-011-9941-y · 3.49 Impact Factor
[Show abstract][Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: To ascertain progression and regression of cervical dysplasia in HIV-infected women in Soweto.
Women attending an HIV wellness clinic were offered cervical smears as part of care; smears were assessed using the Bethesda system. Those with high-grade lesions or worse were referred for colposcopy. Progression analyses included women with at least two smears at least 5.5 months apart. Hazard ratios were used to ascertain predictors of progression.
Two thousand, three hundred and twenty-five women had a baseline smear; their median age and CD4 cell count was 32 years and 312 cells/μl, respectively; 17% were taking highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART); 62, 20 and 14% had normal, low-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions (LSIL) or high-grade squamous intraepithelial lesions (HSIL), respectively. Of those with baseline normal or LSIL smears, 1074 had another smear; progression from normal to LSIL was 9.6/100 person-years (95% CI 8.3-11.1) and progression from normal or LSIL to HSIL was 4.6/100 person-years (95% CI 3.9-5.5). Of 225 women with LSIL at baseline and at least one subsequent smear at least 11.5 months later, 44.0% regressed to normal (21.2/100 person-years (95% CI 17.5-25.7)). Multivariate models suggested increasing risk for progression in women with CD4 cell count below 500 cells/μl and HAART may reduce the risk of progression [adjusted hazard ratio (aHR) 0.72 (0.52-0.99)].
HIV-infected women have high rates of prevalent and incident HSIL and LSIL with relatively low risk of regression to normal from LSIL. HAART appears to protect against progression. Our findings suggest cervical screening intervals should be less than 10 years - irrespective of age in women with CD4 cell counts below 500 cells/μl.
AIDS (London, England) 11/2010; 25(1):87-94. DOI:10.1097/QAD.0b013e328340fd99 · 5.55 Impact Factor
[Show abstract][Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: High BMI has been shown to be protective against tuberculosis (TB) among HIV-uninfected individuals, as well as against disease progression and mortality among those with HIV. We examined the effect of BMI on all-cause mortality and TB incidence among a cohort of HIV-infected adults in Soweto, South Africa.
A clinical cohort of 3456 HIV-infected adults from South Africa was prospectively followed from 2003 to 2008 with regular monitoring. The primary exposure was BMI and the outcomes of interest were all-cause mortality and a newly diagnosed episode of TB. Cox proportional hazard models assessed associations with risk of mortality or incident TB.
Incidence rates of mortality were 10.4/100 person-years for baseline BMI of 18.5 or less, 3.6/100 person-years for baseline BMI 18.6-25, 1.7/100 person-years for baseline BMI 25.1-30, and 1.6/100 person-years for baseline BMI more than 30. Compared to those with normal BMI, overweight and obese participants had a significantly reduced risk of mortality [adjusted hazard ratio 0.59 (95% confidence interval, CI 0.40-0.87) and 0.48 (95% CI 0.29-0.80), respectively]. Incidence rates of TB by baseline BMI were 7.3/100 person-years for underweight, 6.0/100 person-years for normal, 3.2/100 person-years for overweight, and 1.9/100 person-years for obese. Compared to those with normal BMI, those with overweight and obese BMI were at a significantly reduced risk of developing TB [adjusted hazard ratio 0.56 (95% CI 0.38-0.83) and 0.33 (95% CI 0.19-0.55), respectively].
HIV-infected individuals with obese and overweight BMI have a significantly reduced risk of both mortality and TB, after adjusting for HAART use and CD4 cell count.
AIDS (London, England) 06/2010; 24(10):1501-8. DOI:10.1097/QAD.0b013e32833a2a4a · 5.55 Impact Factor