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Publications (5)32.67 Total impact

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    ABSTRACT: Decisions about the intensity of treatment for patients with acute exacerbations of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (AECOPD) are influenced by predictions about survival and quality of life. Evidence suggests that these predictions are poorly calibrated and tend to be pessimistic. The aim of this study was to develop an outcome prediction model for COPD patients to support treatment decisions. A prospective multi-centre cohort study in Intensive Care Units (ICU) and Respiratory High Dependency Units (RHDU) in the UK recruited patients aged 45 years and older admitted with an exacerbation of obstructive lung disease. Data were collected on patients' characteristics prior to ICU admission, and on their survival and quality of life after 180 days. An outcome prediction model was developed using multivariate logistic regression and bootstrapping. Ninety-two ICUs (53% of those in the UK) and three RHDUs took part. A total of 832 patients were recruited. Cumulative 180-day mortality was 37.9%. Using data available at the time of admission to the units, a prognostic model was developed which had an estimated area under the receiver operating characteristic curve ('c') of 74.7% after bootstrapping that was more discriminating than the clinicians (P = 0.033) and was well calibrated. This study has produced an outcome prediction model with slightly better discrimination and much better calibration than the participating clinicians. It has the potential to support risk adjustment and clinical decision making about admission to intensive care.
    QJM: monthly journal of the Association of Physicians 05/2009; 102(6):389-99. · 2.36 Impact Factor
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    ABSTRACT: Non-invasive ventilation is first-line treatment for patients with acutely decompensated chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD), but endotracheal intubation, involving admission to an intensive care unit, may sometimes be required. Decisions to admit to an intensive care unit are commonly based on predicted survival and quality of life, but the information base for these decisions is limited and there is some evidence that clinicians tend to be pessimistic. This study examined the outcomes in patients with COPD admitted to the intensive care unit for decompensated type II respiratory failure. A prospective cohort study was carried out in 92 intensive care units and 3 respiratory high dependency units in the UK. Patients aged 45 years and older with breathlessness, respiratory failure or change in mental status due to an exacerbation of COPD, asthma or a combination of the two were recruited. Outcomes included survival and quality of life at 180 days. Of the 832 patients recruited, 517 (62%) survived to 180 days. Of the survivors, 421 (81%) responded to a questionnaire. Of the respondents, 73% considered their quality of life to be the same as or better than it had been in the stable period before they were admitted, and 96% would choose similar treatment again. Function during the stable pre-admission period was a reasonable indicator of function reported by those who survived 180 days. Most patients with COPD who survive to 180 days after treatment in an intensive care unit have a heavy burden of symptoms, but almost all of them-including those who have been intubated-would want similar intensive care again under similar circumstances.
    Thorax 11/2008; 64(2):128-32. · 8.38 Impact Factor
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    ABSTRACT: To determine whether clinicians' prognoses in patients with severe acute exacerbations of obstructive lung disease admitted to intensive care match observed outcomes in terms of survival. Prospective cohort study. 92 intensive care units and three respiratory high dependency units in the United Kingdom. 832 patients aged 45 years and older with breathlessness, respiratory failure, or change in mental status because of an exacerbation of COPD, asthma, or a combination of the two. Outcome predicted by clinicians. Observed survival at 180 days. 517 patients (62%) survived to 180 days. Clinicians' prognoses were pessimistic, with a mean predicted survival of 49% at 180 days. For the fifth of patients with the poorest prognosis according to the clinician, the predicted survival rate was 10% and the actual rate was 40%. Information from a database covering 74% of intensive care units in the UK suggested no material difference between units that participated and those that did not. Patients recruited were similar to those not recruited in the same units. Because decisions on whether to admit patients with COPD or asthma to intensive care for intubation depend on clinicians' prognoses, some patients who might otherwise survive are probably being denied admission because of unwarranted prognostic pessimism.
    BMJ (online) 01/2008; 335(7630):1132. · 17.22 Impact Factor
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    ABSTRACT: In 1989, an outbreak of Q fever (C. burnetii infection) with 147 confirmed cases occurred in Solihull, West Midlands. Three patients developed cardiomyopathy in the subsequent 10 years. The cohort has been followed up with respect to the development of fatigue and, in this instance, cardiac effects after the original infection. To determine whether persisting fatigue after Q fever represented sub-clinical cardiomyopathy. Prospective follow-up study. All traceable subjects from the original outbreak, and community age-, sex- and smoking-matched controls, were studied. Questionnaires for idiopathic fatigue, 12-lead ECG, echocardiography, spirometry and shuttle walk distance were undertaken, and a subset with CDC-defined chronic fatigue syndrome had gated cardiac scans. Of the original cohort, 19 had died, three had emigrated and 10 were untraceable. Of the remaining 115, 108 responded to a mailed questionnaire and 87 were investigated further, of whom 85 provided complete data. Two developed aortic valve vegetations, one of whom died. Chronic fatigue syndrome was found in 20% of cases and 5.3% of controls (including those with co-morbidities), falling to 8.2% and 0 when excluding those with co-morbidities. There were no significant differences in ECG and echocardiographic investigations or shuttle-walk distance between those with fatigue and those without. Six of the seven patients with CFS had gated cardiac scans: all were within normal limits. These findings do not support the existence of a sub-clinical cardiomyopathy in the patients in this cohort who suffer from fatigue after acute Q fever, although endocarditis can occur after acute infection.
    QJM: monthly journal of the Association of Physicians 09/2002; 95(8):539-46. · 2.36 Impact Factor
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    ABSTRACT: Some patients exposed to Q fever (Coxiella burnetii infection) may develop chronic fatigue. To determine whether subjects involved in the West Midlands Q fever outbreak of 1989 had increased fatigue, compared to non-exposed controls, 10 years after exposure. Matched cohort study comparing cases to age-, sex- and smoking-history-matched controls not exposed to Q fever. A postal questionnaire was sent to subjects at home, followed by further assessment in hospital, including a physical examination and blood tests. Of 108 Q-exposed subjects, 70 (64.8%) had fatigue, 37 idiopathic chronic fatigue (ICF) (34.3%), vs. 29/80 (36.3%) and 12 (15.0%), respectively, in controls. In 77 matched pairs, fatigue was commoner in Q-exposed subjects than in controls: 50 (64.9%) vs. 27 (35.1%), p<0.0001. ICF was found in 25 (32.5%) of Q-exposed patients and 11(14.3%) of controls (p=0.01). There were 36 (46.8%) GHQ cases in Q-exposed subjects, vs. 18 (23.4%) controls (p=0.004). A matched analysis of those more intensively studied showed fatigue in 48 (66.7%) Q-exposed patients and 25 (34.7%) controls, (p<0.0001), ICF in 25 (34.7%) Q-exposed and 10 (13.9%) controls (p=0.004), and chronic fatigue syndrome (CFS) in 14 (19.4%) Q-exposed patients and three (4.2%) controls (p=0.003). Thirty-four (47.2%) Q-exposed patients were GHQ cases compared to 17 (23.6%) controls (p=0.004). Subjects who were exposed to Coxiella in 1989 had more fatigue than did controls, and some fulfilled the criteria for CFS. Whether this is due to ongoing antigen persistence or to the psychological effects of prolonged medical follow-up is uncertain.
    QJM: monthly journal of the Association of Physicians 08/2002; 95(8):527-38. · 2.36 Impact Factor