Publications (65)97.45 Total impact
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Article: Terrestrial effects of possible astrophysical sources of an AD 774-775 increase in 14C production
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ABSTRACT: We examine possible sources of a substantial increase in tree ring 14C measurements for the years AD 774-775. Contrary to claims regarding a coronal mass ejection (CME), the required CME energy is not several orders of magnitude greater than known solar events. We consider solar proton events (SPEs) with three different fluences and two different spectra. The data may be explained by an event with fluence about one order of magnitude beyond the October 1989 SPE. Two hard spectrum cases considered here result in moderate ozone depletion, so no mass extinction is implied, though we do predict increases in erythema and damage to plants from enhanced solar UV. We are able to rule out an event with a very soft spectrum that causes severe ozone depletion and subsequent biological impacts. Nitrate enhancements are consistent with their apparent absence in ice core data. The modern technological implications of such an event may be extreme, and considering recent confirmation of superflares on solar-type stars, this issue merits attention.02/2013; -
Article: Causes of an ad 774-775 14C increase.
Nature 11/2012; 491(7426):E1-2. · 36.28 Impact Factor -
Article: Cosmic Rays and Terrestrial Life: a Brief Review
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ABSTRACT: "The investigation into the possible effects of cosmic rays on living organisms will also offer great interest." - Victor F. Hess, Nobel Lecture, December 12, 1936 High-energy radiation bursts are commonplace in our Universe. From nearby solar flares to distant gamma ray bursts, a variety of physical processes accelerate charged particles to a wide range of energies, which subsequently reach the Earth. Such particles contribute to a number of physical processes occurring in the Earth system. A large fraction of the energy of charged particles gets deposited in the atmosphere, ionizing the atmosphere, causing changes in its chemistry and affecting the global electric circuit. Remaining secondary particles contribute to the background dose of cosmic rays on the surface and parts of the subsurface region. Life has evolved over the past ~ 3 billion years in presence of this background radiation, which itself has varied considerably during the period. As demonstrated by the Miller-Urey experiment, lightning plays a very important role in the formation of complex organic molecules, which are the building blocks of more complex structures forming life. There is growing evidence of increase in the lightning rate with increasing flux of charged particles. Is there a connection between enhanced rate of cosmic rays and the origin of life? Cosmic ray secondaries are also known to damage DNA and cause mutations, leading to cancer and other diseases. It is now possible to compute radiation doses from secondary particles, in particular muons and neutrons. Have the variations in cosmic ray flux affected the evolution of life on earth? We describe the mechanisms of cosmic rays affecting terrestrial life and review the potential implications of the variation of high-energy astrophysical radiation on the history of life on earth.11/2012; -
Article: Biological implications of high-energy cosmic ray induced muon flux in the extragalactic shock model
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ABSTRACT: A ~ 62 My periodicity in fossil biodiversity has been observed in independent studies of paleontology databases over ~0.5Gy. The period and phase of this biodiversity cycle coincides with the oscillation of our solar system normal to the galactic disk with an amplitude ~70 parsecs and a period ~64 My. Our Galaxy is falling toward the Virgo cluster, forming a galactic shock at the north end of our galaxy due to this motion, capable of accelerating particles and exposing our galaxy's northern side to a higher flux of cosmic rays. These high-energy particles strike the Earth's atmosphere initiating extensive air showers, ionizing the atmosphere by producing charged secondary particles. Secondary particles such as muons produced as a result of nuclear interactions are able to reach the ground and enhance the biological radiation dose. Using a Monte Carlo simulation package CORSIKA, we compute the biological dose resulting from enhanced muon exposure from cosmic rays and discuss their implications for terrestrial biodiversity variations.08/2011; -
Article: Astrophysical ionizing radiation and Earth: a brief review and census of intermittent intense sources.
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ABSTRACT: Cosmic radiation backgrounds are a constraint on life, and their distribution will affect the Galactic Habitable Zone. Life on Earth has developed in the context of these backgrounds, and characterizing event rates will elaborate the important influences. This in turn can be a base for comparison with other potential life-bearing planets. In this review, we estimate the intensities and rates of occurrence of many kinds of strong radiation bursts by astrophysical entities, ranging from gamma-ray bursts at cosmological distances to the Sun itself. Many of these present potential hazards to the biosphere; on timescales long compared with human history, the probability of an event intense enough to disrupt life on the land surface or in the oceans becomes large. Both photons (e.g., X-rays) and high-energy protons and other nuclei (often called "cosmic rays") constitute hazards. For either species, one of the mechanisms that comes into play even at moderate intensities is the ionization of Earth's atmosphere, which leads through chemical changes (specifically, depletion of stratospheric ozone) to increased ultraviolet B flux from the Sun reaching the surface. UVB is extremely hazardous to most life due to its strong absorption by the genetic material DNA and subsequent breaking of chemical bonds. This often leads to mutation or cell death. It is easily lethal to the microorganisms that lie at the base of the food chain in the ocean. We enumerate the known sources of radiation and characterize their intensities at Earth and rates or upper limits on these quantities. When possible, we estimate a "lethal interval," our best estimate of how often a major extinction-level event is probable given the current state of knowledge; we base these estimates on computed or expected depletion of stratospheric ozone. In general, moderate-level events are dominated by the Sun, but the far more severe infrequent events are probably dominated by gamma-ray bursts and supernovae. We note for the first time that so-called "short-hard" gamma-ray bursts are a substantial threat, comparable in magnitude to supernovae and greater than that of the higher-luminosity long bursts considered in most past work. Given their precursors, short bursts may come with little or no warning.Astrobiology 05/2011; 11(4):343-61. · 2.15 Impact Factor -
Article: Modeling high-energy cosmic ray induced terrestrial muon flux: A lookup table
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ABSTRACT: On geological timescales, the Earth is likely to be exposed to an increased flux of high-energy cosmic rays (HECRs) from astrophysical sources such as nearby supernovae, gamma-ray bursts or by galactic shocks. Typical cosmic ray energies may be much higher than the flux which normally dominates. These high-energy particles strike the Earth's atmosphere initiating an extensive air shower. As the air shower propagates deeper, it ionizes the atmosphere by producing charged secondary particles. Secondary particles such as muons and thermal neutrons produced as a result of nuclear interactions are able to reach the ground, enhancing the radiation dose. Muons contribute 85% to the radiation dose from cosmic rays. This enhanced dose could be potentially harmful to the biosphere. This mechanism has been discussed extensively in literature but has never been quantified. Here, we have developed a lookup table that can be used to quantify this effect by modeling terrestrial muon flux from any arbitrary cosmic ray spectra with 10 GeV to 1 PeV primaries. This will enable us to compute the radiation dose on terrestrial planetary surfaces from a number of astrophysical sources.Radiation Physics and Chemistry. 11/2010; -
Article: Can periodicity in low altitude cloud cover be induced by cosmic ray variability in the extragalactic shock model?
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ABSTRACT: Variation in high energy cosmic rays (HECRs) has been proposed to explain a 62 My periodicity in terrestrial fossil biodiversity. It has been suggested that the infall of our galaxy toward the Virgo cluster could generate an extragalactic shock, accelerating charged particles and exposing the earth to a flux of high energy cosmic rays (HECRs). The oscillation of the Sun perpendicular to the galactic plane could induce 62 My periodicity in the HECR flux on the Earth, with a magnitude much higher than the Galactic cosmic ray change we see in a solar cycle. This mechanism could potentially explain the observed 62 My periodicity in terrestrial biodiversity over the past 500 My. In addition to direct effects on life from secondaries, HECRs induced air showers ionize the atmosphere leading to changes in atmospheric chemistry and microphysical processes that can lead to cloud formation including low altitude cloud cover. An increase in ionization changes the global electric circuit which could enhance the formation of cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) through microphysical processes such as electroscavenging and ion mediated nucleation, leading to an increase in the cloud cover. This could increase the albedo and reduce the solar flux reaching the ground, reducing the global temperature. Using an existing model, we have calculated the enhancement in atmospheric ionization at low altitudes resulting from exposure to HECRs. We use a conservative model to estimate the change in low altitude cloud cover from this increased ionization. Comment: 10 pages, 1 figure06/2010; -
Article: Cometary airbursts and atmospheric chemistry: Tunguska and a candidate Younger Dryas event
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ABSTRACT: We find agreement between models of atmospheric chemistry changes from ionization for the 1908 Tunguska airburst event and nitrate enhancement in GISP2H and GISP2 ice cores, plus an unexplained ammonium spike. We then consider a candidate cometary impact at the Younger Dryas onset (YD). The large estimated NO_x production and O_3 depletion are beyond accurate extrapolation, but the ice core peak is much lower, possibly because of insufficient sampling resolution. Ammonium and nitrate spikes have been attributed to biomass burning at YD onset in both GRIP and GISP2 ice cores. A similar result is well-resolved in Tunguska ice core data, but that forest fire was far too small to account for this. Direct input of ammonia from a comet into the atmosphere is adequate for YD ice core data, but not Tunguska data. An analog of the Haber process with hydrogen contributed by cometary or surface water, atmospheric nitrogen, high pressures, and possibly catalytic iron from a comet could in principle produce ammonia, accounting for the peaks in both data sets. Comment: As published in Geology. Article selected as "Research Focus" of the April 2010 issue.07/2009; -
Article: The Bull's-Eye Effect as a Probe of Ω
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ABSTRACT: We compare the statistical properties of structures normal and transverse to the line of sight that appear in theoretical N-body simulations of structure formation and also seem to be present in observational data from redshift surveys. We present a statistic that can quantify this effect in a conceptually different way from standard analyses of distortions of the power spectrum or correlation function. From tests with N-body experiments, we argue that this statistic represents a new and potentially powerful diagnostic of the cosmological density parameter, Ω.The Astrophysical Journal 01/2009; 496(2):L85. · 6.02 Impact Factor -
Article: Disentangling the Cosmic Web. I. Morphology of Isodensity Contours
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ABSTRACT: We apply Minkowski functionals and various derived measures to decipher the morphological properties of large-scale structure seen in simulations of gravitational evolution. Minkowski functionals of isodensity contours serve as tools to test global properties of the density field. Furthermore, we identify coherent objects at various threshold levels and calculate their partial Minkowski functionals. We propose a set of two derived dimensionless quantities, planarity and filamentarity, which reduce the morphological information in a simple and intuitive way. Several simulations of the gravitational evolution of initial power-law spectra provide a framework for systematic tests of our method.The Astrophysical Journal 01/2009; 526(2):568. · 6.02 Impact Factor -
Article: Quantifying the Bull's-Eye Effect
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ABSTRACT: We have used N-body simulations to develop two independent methods to quantify redshift distortions known as the "bull's-eye effect" (large-scale infall plus small-scale virial motion). This effect depends upon the mass density, Ω0, so measuring it can, in principle, give an estimate of this important cosmological parameter. We are able to measure the effect and distinguish between its strength for high and low values of Ω0. Unlike other techniques, which utilize redshift distortions, one of our methods is relatively insensitive to bias. In one approach, we use path lengths between contour crossings of the density field. The other is based upon percolation. We have found both methods to be successful in quantifying the effect and distinguishing between values of Ω0. However, only the path-lengths method exhibits low sensitivity to bias.The Astrophysical Journal 12/2008; 601(1):28. · 6.02 Impact Factor -
Article: Terrestrial Ozone Depletion due to a Milky Way Gamma-Ray Burst
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ABSTRACT: Based on cosmological rates, it is probable that at least once in the last gigayear the Earth has been irradiated by a gamma-ray burst (GRB) in our Galaxy from within 2 kpc. We have performed the first detailed computation of the effects on the Earth's atmosphere of one such impulsive event: A 10 s 100 kJ m-2 burst penetrates to the stratosphere causing globally averaged ozone depletion of 35%, with depletion reaching 55% at some latitudes. Significant depletion persists for over 5 years after the burst. A 50% decrease in ozone column density leads to approximately 3 times the normal UVB (280-315 nm; a wavelength band that ozone significantly absorbs and that living organisms are sensitive to) flux, and widespread extinctions are likely, based on extrapolation from sensitivity of modern organisms. Additional effects include a shot of nitrate fertilizer and NO2 opacity in the visible, providing a cooling perturbation to the climate over a similar timescale. These results lend support to the hypothesis that a GRB may have initiated the late Ordovician mass extinction (Melott et al.).The Astrophysical Journal 12/2008; 622(2):L153. · 6.02 Impact Factor -
Article: Gamma-Ray Bursts and the Earth: Exploration of Atmospheric, Biological, Climatic, and Biogeochemical Effects
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ABSTRACT: Gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) are likely to have made a number of significant impacts on the Earth during the last billion years. The gamma radiation from a burst within a few kiloparsecs would quickly deplete much of the Earth's protective ozone layer, allowing an increase in solar UVB radiation reaching the surface. This radiation is harmful to life, damaging DNA and causing sunburn. In addition, NO2 produced in the atmosphere would cause a decrease in visible sunlight reaching the surface and could cause global cooling. Nitric acid rain could stress portions of the biosphere, but the increased nitrate deposition could be helpful to land plants. We have used a two-dimensional atmospheric model to investigate the effects on the Earth's atmosphere of GRBs delivering a range of fluences, at various latitudes, at the equinoxes and solstices, and at different times of day. We have estimated DNA damage levels caused by increased solar UVB radiation, reduction in solar visible light due to NO2 opacity, and deposition of nitrates through rainout of HNO3. For the "typical" nearest burst in the last billion years, we find globally averaged ozone depletion up to 38%. Localized depletion reaches as much as 74%. Significant global depletion (at least 10%) persists up to about 7 yr after the burst. Our results depend strongly on time of year and latitude over which the burst occurs. The impact scales with the total fluence of the GRB at the Earth but is insensitive to the time of day of the burst and its duration (1-1000 s). We find DNA damage of up to 16 times the normal annual global average, well above lethal levels for simple life forms such as phytoplankton. The greatest damage occurs at mid- to low latitudes. We find reductions in visible sunlight of a few percent, primarily in the polar regions. Nitrate deposition similar to or slightly greater than that currently caused by lightning is also observed, lasting several years. We discuss how these results support the hypothesis that the Late Ordovician mass extinction may have been initiated by a GRB.The Astrophysical Journal 12/2008; 634(1):509. · 6.02 Impact Factor -
Article: Late Ordovician geographic patterns of extinction compared with simulations of astrophysical ionizing radiation damage
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ABSTRACT: Based on the intensity and rates of various kinds of intense ionizing radiation events such as supernovae and gamma-ray bursts, it is likely that the Earth has been subjected to one or extinction level events during the Phanerozoic. These induce changes in atmospheric chemistry so that the level of Solar ultraviolet-B radiation reaching the surface and near-surface waters may be doubled for up to a decade. This UVB level is known from experiment to be more than enough to kill off many kinds of organisms, particularly phytoplankton. It could easily induce a crash of the photosynthetic-based food chain in the oceans. Regularities in the latitudinal distribution of damage are apparent in simulations of the atmospheric changes. We previously proposed that the late Ordovician extinction is a plausible candidate for a contribution from an ionizing radiation event, based on environmental selectivity in trilobites. To test a null hypothesis based on this proposal, we confront latitudinal differential extinction rates predicted from the simulations with data from a published analysis of latitudinal gradients in the Ordovician extinction. The pattern of UVB damage always shows a strong maximum at some latitude, with substantially lower intensity to the north and south of this maximum. We find that the pattern of damage predicted from our simulations is consistent with the data assuming a burst approximately over the South Pole, and no further north than -75 degrees. We predict that any land mass (such as parts of north China, Laurentia, and New Guinea) which then lay north of the equator should be a refuge from UVB effects, and show a different pattern of extinction in the first strike of the end-Ordovician extinction, if induced by such a radiation event. Comment: Accepted for publication in Paleobiology. 16 pages, 2 figures09/2008; -
Article: Lookup tables to compute high energy cosmic ray induced atmospheric ionization and changes in atmospheric chemistry
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ABSTRACT: A variety of events such as gamma-ray bursts and supernovae may expose the Earth to an increased flux of high-energy cosmic rays, with potentially important effects on the biosphere. Existing atmospheric chemistry software does not have the capability of incorporating the effects of substantial cosmic ray flux above 10 GeV . An atmospheric code, the NASA-Goddard Space Flight Center two-dimensional (latitude, altitude) time-dependent atmospheric model (NGSFC), is used to study atmospheric chemistry changes. Using CORSIKA, we have created tables that can be used to compute high energy cosmic ray (10 GeV - 1 PeV) induced atmospheric ionization and also, with the use of the NGSFC code, can be used to simulate the resulting atmospheric chemistry changes. We discuss the tables, their uses, weaknesses, and strengths. Comment: In press: Journal of Cosmology and Astroparticle Physics. 6 figures, 3 tables, two associated data files. Major revisions, including results of a greatly expanded computation, clarification and updated references. In the future we will expand the table to at least EeV levels.04/2008; -
Article: Superluminous supernovae: no threat from eta Carinae.
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ABSTRACT: Recently, Supernova 2006gy was noted as the most luminous ever recorded, with a total radiated energy of approximately 10(44) Joules. It was proposed that the progenitor may have been a massive evolved star similar to eta Carinae, which resides in our own Galaxy at a distance of about 2.3 kpc. eta Carinae appears ready to detonate. Although it is too distant to pose a serious threat as a normal supernova, and given that its rotation axis is unlikely to produce a gamma-ray burst oriented toward Earth, eta Carinae is about 30,000 times nearer than 2006gy, and we re-evaluate it as a potential superluminous supernova. We have found that, given the large ratio of emission in the optical to the X-ray, atmospheric effects are negligible. Ionization of the atmosphere and concomitant ozone depletion are unlikely to be important. Any cosmic ray effects should be spread out over approximately 10(4) y and similarly unlikely to produce any serious perturbation to the biosphere. We also discuss a new possible effect of supernovae-e-ndocrine disruption induced by blue light near the peak of the optical spectrum. This is a possibility for nearby supernovae at distances too large to be considered "dangerous" for other reasons. However, due to reddening and extinction by the interstellar medium, eta Carinae is unlikely to trigger such effects to any significant degree.Astrobiology 03/2008; 8(1):9-16. · 2.15 Impact Factor -
Article: Terrestrial Consequences of Spectral and Temporal Variability in Ionizing Photon Events
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ABSTRACT: Gamma-Ray Bursts (GRBs) directed at Earth from within a few kpc may have damaged the biosphere, primarily though changes in atmospheric chemistry which admit greatly increased Solar UV. However, GRBs are highly variable in spectrum and duration. Recent observations indicate that short (~0.1 s) burst GRBs, which have harder spectra, may be sufficiently abundant at low redshift that they may offer an additional significant effect. A much longer timescale is associated with shock breakout luminosity observed in the soft X-ray (~10^3 s) and UV (~10^5 s) emission, and radioactive decay gamma-ray line radiation emitted during the light curve phase of supernovae (~10^7 s). Here we generalize our atmospheric computations to include a broad range of peak photon energies and investigate the effect of burst duration while holding total fluence and other parameters constant. The results can be used to estimate the probable impact of various kinds of ionizing events (such as short GRBs, X-ray flashes, supernovae) upon the terrestrial atmosphere. We find that the ultimate intensity of atmospheric effects varies only slightly with burst duration from 10^-1 s to 10^8 s. Therefore, the effect of many astrophysical events causing atmospheric ionization can be approximated without including time development. Detailed modeling requires specification of the season and latitude of the event. Harder photon spectra produce greater atmospheric effects for spectra with peaks up to about 20 MeV, because of greater penetration into the stratosphere. Comment: 30 pages, to be published in ApJ. Replaced for conformity with published version, including correction of minor typos and updated references04/2006; -
Article: Do extragalactic cosmic rays induce cycles in fossil diversity?
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ABSTRACT: Recent work has revealed a 62 (+/-) 3-million-year cycle in the fossil diversity in the past 542 My, however no plausible mechanism has been found. We propose that the cycle may be caused by modulation of cosmic ray (CR) flux by the Solar system vertical oscillation (64 My period) in the galaxy, the galactic north-south anisotropy of CR production in the galactic halo/wind/termination shock (due to the galactic motion toward the Virgo cluster), and the shielding by galactic magnetic fields. We revisit the mechanism of CR propagation and show that CR flux can vary by a factor of about 4.6 and reach a maximum at north-most displacement of the Sun. The very high statistical significance of (i) the phase agreement between Solar north-ward excursions and the diversity minima and (ii) the correlation of the magnitude of diversity drops with CR amplitudes through all cycles provide solid support for our model. Various observational predictions which can be used to confirm or falsify our hypothesis are presented.03/2006; -
Article: Gamma-ray bursts and terrestrial planetary atmospheres
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ABSTRACT: We describe results of modeling the effects on Earth-like planets of long-duration gamma-ray bursts (GRBs) within a few kiloparsecs. A primary effect is generation of nitrogen oxide compounds which deplete ozone. Ozone depletion leads to an increase in solar UVB radiation at the surface, enhancing DNA damage, particularly in marine microorganisms such as phytoplankton. In addition, we expect increased atmospheric opacity due to buildup of nitrogen dioxide produced by the burst and enhanced precipitation of nitric acid. We review here previous work on this subject and discuss recent developments, including further discussion of our estimates of the rates of impacting GRBs and the possible role of short-duration bursts. Comment: 12 pages including 5 figures (4 in color). Added discussion of GRB rates and biological effects. Accepted for publication in New Journal of Physics, for special issue "Focus on Gamma-Ray Bursts"01/2006; -
Article: Climatic and Biogeochemical Effects of a Galactic Gamma-Ray Burst
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ABSTRACT: It is likely that one or more gamma-ray bursts within our galaxy have strongly irradiated the Earth in the last Gy. This produces significant atmospheric ionization and dissociation, resulting in ozone depletion and DNA-damaging ultraviolet solar flux reaching the surface for up to a decade. Here we show the first detailed computation of two other significant effects. Visible opacity of NO2 is sufficient to reduce solar energy at the surface up to a few percent, with the greatest effect at the poles, which may be sufficient to initiate glaciation. Rainout of dilute nitric acid is could have been important for a burst nearer than our conservative nearest burst. These results support the hypothesis that the characteristics of the late Ordovician mass extinction are consistent with GRB initiation.04/2005;
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1997–2012
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University of Kansas
- Department of Physics and Astronomy
Lawrence, KS, USA
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