[Show abstract][Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: Mexicans have an increased rate of alcohol abuse and alcoholic liver disease. Factors influencing the severity of alcoholic hepatitis (AH) in Mexicans are unknown. The aims of the present study were to identify the prognostic factors of short-term mortality in Mexican patients with AH and to validate the existing prognostic models.
One hundred seventy-five consecutive patients with AH were recruited from four hospital centers in Mexico. Demographic, clinical, and biochemical parameters were obtained at admission. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were used for the identification of prognostic factors. The accuracy of different models was evaluated by their area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve and comparative risk analysis was performed using the Kaplan-Meier method.
Age, serum creatinine, serum bilirubin, leukocyte count, and alcohol consumption >120 g/day were independently associated with short-term mortality. The impact of alcohol consumption was significant among patients with severe AH (48 vs. 72% risk of death, P=0.03). The AUROC (95% confidence interval) curves for the different scores were Maddrey's discriminant function 0.79 (0.72-0.86); model for end-stage liver disease (MELD) 0.83 (0.75-0.89); Glasgow AH score 0.77 (0.70-0.84); and age-bilirubin-international normalized ratio-creatinine (ABIC) score 0.82 (0.75-0.88). The ABIC score allowed an accurate stratification into three different risk subgroups with 13%, 50%, and 81% mortality rate at 90 days (P<0.001).
The amount of alcohol consumption has a negative impact on short-term mortality among Mexicans with AH. The ABIC score is useful and comparable with MELD score for the prognostic stratification of these patients.
The American Journal of Gastroenterology 05/2011; 106(8):1472-80. · 9.21 Impact Factor
[Show abstract][Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: Pylephlebitis is the septic thrombosis of the portal vein. Hypercoagulability and intra-abdominal sepsis are the main predisposing factors. A 25-year-old man presented to a primary health care center complaining of fever, epigastric pain, and jaundice. He was initially diagnosed with a gastrointestinal infection and alcoholic hepatitis and, due to his unstable clinical status, was referred to the emergency room. A diagnosis of acute pylephlebitis complicated with septic shock was made. Treatment with a wide-spectrum antibiotic and anticoagulation was initiated. Fifteen days later, recanalization of the portal vein was achieved and clinical status was improved. Pylephlebitis following gastrointestinal infection is a potential cause of septic shock.
Southern medical journal 09/2010; 103(9):956-9. · 1.12 Impact Factor
[Show abstract][Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: Background: Variceal bleeding (VB) is the main cause of death among cirrhotic patients. About 30-50% of early rebleeding is encountered few days after the acute episode of VB. It is necessary to stratify patients with high risk of very early rebleeding (VER) for more aggressive therapies. However, there are few and incompletely understood prognostic models for this purpose. Aims: To determine the risk factors associated with VER after an acute VB. Assessment and comparison of a novel prognostic model generated by Classification and Regression Tree Analysis (CART) with classic-used models (MELD and Child-Pugh [CP]). Patients and methods: Sixty consecutive cirrhotic patients with acute variceal bleeding. CART analysis, MELD and Child-Pugh scores were performed at admission. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were constructed to evaluate the predictive performance of the models. Results: Very early rebleeding rate was 13%. Variables associated with VER were: serum albumin (p = 0.027), creatinine (p = 0.021) and transfused blood units in the first 24 hrs (p = 0.05). The area under the ROC for MELD, CHILD-Pugh and CART were 0.46, 0.50 and 0.82, respectively. The value of cut analyzed by CART for the significant variables were: 1) Albumin 2.85 mg/dL, 2) Packed red cells 2 units and 3) Creatinine 1.65 mg/dL the ABC-ROC. Conclusion: Serum albumin, creatinine and number of transfused blood units were associated with VER. A simple CART algorithm combining these variables allows an accurate predictive assessment of VER after acute variceal bleeding. Key words: cirrhosis, variceal bleeding, esophageal varices, prognosis, portal hypertension.
Revista de gastroenterologia de Mexico 01/2010; 75(1):12-21.
[Show abstract][Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: Available prognostic scores for mortality after acute variceal bleeding are mainly based on logistic regression analysis but may have some limitations that can restrict their clinical value.
To assess the efficacy of a novel prognostic approach based on Classification and Regression Tree -CART- analysis to common easy-to-use models (MELD and Child-Pugh) for predicting 6-week mortality in patients with variceal bleeding.
Sixty consecutive cirrhotic patients with acute variceal bleeding. CART analysis, MELD and Child-Pugh scores were performed to assess 6-week mortality. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were constructed to evaluate the predictive performance of the models.
Six-week rebleeding and mortality were 30% and 22%, respectively. Child-Pugh and MELD scores were clinically relevant for predicting 6 weeks mortality. CART analysis provided a simple algorithm based on just three bedside-available variables (albumin, bilirubin and in-hospital rebleeding), allowing accurate discrimination of two distinct prognostic subgroups with 3% and 80% mortality rates. All MELD, Child-Pugh and CART models showed excellent and comparable predictive accuracy, with areas under the ROC curves (AUROC) of 0.88, 0.84 and 0.91, respectively.
A simple CART algorithm combining albumin, bilirubin and in-hospital rebleeding allows an accurate predictive assessment of 6-week mortality after acute variceal bleeding.
Annals of hepatology: official journal of the Mexican Association of Hepatology 01/2009; 8(4):308-15. · 2.19 Impact Factor