S. Solomon

Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Cambridge, Massachusetts, United States

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Publications (279)789.42 Total impact

  • [Show abstract] [Hide abstract]
    ABSTRACT: The ozone hole is an important driver of recent Southern Hemisphere (SH) climate change, and capturing these changes is a goal of climate modeling. Most climate models are driven by offline ozone datasets. Previous studies have shown that there is a substantial range in estimates of SH ozone depletion, but the implications of this range have not been examined systematically. We use a climate model to evaluate the difference between using the ozone forcing (SPARC) used by many IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (CMIP5) models and one at the upper end of the observed depletion estimates (BDBP). In the stratosphere, we find that austral spring/summer polar cap cooling, geopotential height decreases, and zonal wind increases in the BDBP simulations are all doubled compared to the SPARC simulations, while tropospheric responses are 20-100% larger. These results are important for studies attempting to diagnose the climate fingerprints of ozone depletion.
    Geophysical Research Letters. 11/2014;
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    ABSTRACT: Understanding the cooling effect of recent volcanoes is of particular interest in the context of the post-2000 slowing of the rate of global warming. Satellite observations of aerosol optical depth (AOD) above 15 km have demonstrated that small-magnitude volcanic eruptions substantially perturb incoming solar radiation. Here we use lidar, AERONET and balloon-borne observations to provide evidence that currently available satellite databases neglect substantial amounts of volcanic aerosol between the tropopause and 15 km at mid to high latitudes, and therefore underestimate total radiative forcing resulting from the recent eruptions. Incorporating these estimates into a simple climate model, we determine the global volcanic aerosol forcing since 2000 to be −0.19 ± 0.09 Wm−2. This translates into an estimated global cooling of 0.05 to 0.12 °C. We conclude that recent volcanic events are responsible for more post-2000 cooling than is implied by satellite databases that neglect volcanic aerosol effects below 15 km.
    Geophysical Research Letters. 10/2014;
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    ABSTRACT: A newly implemented helium module in The National Center for Atmospheric Research-Thermosphere Ionosphere Electrodynamics General Circulation Model (NCAR-TIEGCM) offers the first opportunity in three decades to describe helium behavior in the context of a first principles, self-consistent model, and to test early theories of wintertime helium bulge formation. This study shows general agreement with the findings of Reber and Hays [1973] but articulates the definitive role of vertical advection in the bulge formation. Our findings indicate vertical advection and molecular diffusion are the dominate processes responsible for the solstice helium distribution. Horizontal winds indirectly contribute to the helium bulge formation by their divergent wind field that leads to vertical winds in order to maintain thermosphere mass continuity. As a minor gas, thermospheric helium does not contribute to mass continuity and its distribution is dictated by more local interactions and constraints.
    Geophysical Research Letters. 09/2014;
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    ABSTRACT: The modulation of geomagnetic activity on the equatorial thermosphere anomaly (ETA) in thermospheric temperature under the high solar activity condition is investigated using the Thermosphere Ionosphere Electrodynamics General Circulation (TIEGCM) simulations. The model simulations during the geomagnetically disturbed interval, when the north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (Bz) oscillates between southward and northward directions, are analyzed and also compared with those under the quiet time condition. Our results show that ionospheric electron densities increase greatly in the equatorial ionization anomaly (EIA) crest region and decrease around the magnetic equator during the storm time, resulting from the enhanced eastward electric fields. The impact of both the direct heat deposition at high latitudes and the modulation of the storm-time enhanced EIA crests on the ETA are subsequently studied. The increased plasma densities over the EIA crest region enhance the field-aligned ion drag that accelerates the poleward meridional winds and consequently their associated adiabatic cooling effect. This process alone produces a deeper temperature trough over the magnetic equator as a result of the enhanced divergence of meridional winds. Moreover, the enhanced plasma-neutral collisional heating at higher latitudes associated with the ionospheric positive storm effect causes a weak increase of the ETA crests. On the other hand, strong changes of the neutral temperature are mainly confined to higher latitudes. Nevertheless, the changes of the ETA purely due to the increased plasma density are overwhelmed by those associated with the storm-time heat deposition, which is the major cause of an overall elevated temperature in both the ETA crests and trough during the geomagnetically active period. Associated with the enhanced neutral temperature at high latitudes due to the heat deposition, the ETA crest-trough differences become larger under the minor geomagnetic activity condition than under the quiet time condition. However, when geomagnetic activity is further elevated, the ETA crests tend to be masked by high temperatures at middle and high latitudes.
    Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics 07/2014; · 3.44 Impact Factor
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    ABSTRACT: This study considers whether spikes in nitrate in snow sampled at Summit, Greenland from August 2000 to August 2002 are related to solar proton events. After identifying tropospheric sources of nitrate on the basis of correlations with sulfate, ammonium, sodium, and calcium, we use the three-dimensional global Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model (WACCM) to examine unaccounted for nitrate spikes. Model calculations confirm that solar proton events significantly impact HOx, NOx, and O3 levels in the mesosphere and stratosphere during the weeks and months following the major 9 November 2000 solar proton event. However, SPE-enhanced NOy calculated within the atmospheric column is too small to account for the observed nitrate peaks in surface snow. Instead, our WACCM results suggest that nitrate spikes not readily accounted for by measurement correlations are likely of anthropogenic origin. These results, consistent with other recent studies, imply that nitrate spikes in ice cores are not suitable proxies for individual SPEs and motivate the need to identify alternative proxies.
    Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres. 05/2014;
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    Liying Qian, Stanley C. Solomon, Raymond G. Roble
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    ABSTRACT: The solar minimum period between solar cycles 23 and 24 was the longest since the beginning of space-based measurements, and many manifestations of solar activity were unusually low. Thermospheric neutral density was about 30% lower than during the previous solar minimum, but changes in the ionosphere between the two solar minima are more controversial. Solar radiation, geomagnetic activity, and anthropogenic increases in greenhouse gases, can all play a role in these changes. In this paper, we address the latter of these potential contributions, the degree to which secular change driven by greenhouse gases, primarily CO2, could be responsible for the observed changes. New 3D model simulations find a global mean density decrease at 400 km of 5.8% between the two recent solar minima, which is larger than earlier 1D model results, and in better agreement with observations. From these model simulations and from other observational work, we estimate that the contribution of secular change to global mean neutral density decrease between the two recent solar minima is less than ~6%. The contribution of secular change to the global average decrease of F-region ionosphere peak density (NmF2) and altitude (hmF2), near mid-day, is estimated to be 1.5% and 1.5 km, respectively. However, secular changes in the ionosphere exhibit large variations with local time, geographic location, and season. The mid-day change of NmF2 seen in the model simulations ranged between +6% and -9%, and the change of hmF2 ranged between +11 km and -11 km, depending on geographic location.
    Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics 03/2014; · 3.44 Impact Factor
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    ABSTRACT: [1] The total electron content (TEC) data measured by the Jason, CHAMP, GRACE and SAC-C satellites, the in-situ electron densities from CHAMP and GRACE, and the vertical E × B drifts from the ROCSAT satellite have been utilized to examine the ionospheric response to the October 2003 superstorms. The combination of observations from multiple satellites provides a unique global view of ionospheric storm effects, especially over the Pacific Ocean and American regions, which were under sunlit conditions during the main phases of the October 2003 superstorms. The main results of this study are: 1) There were substantial increases in TEC in the daytime at low and middle latitudes during both superstorms; 2) The enhancements were greater during the October 30 superstorm and occurred over a wider range of local times; 3) They also tended to peak at earlier local times during this second event; 4) These TEC enhancement events occurred at the local times when there were enhancements in the upward vertical drift; 5) The strong upward vertical drifts are attributed to penetration electric fields, suggesting that these penetration electric fields played a significant role in the electron density enhancements during these superstorms. Overall, the main contribution of this study is the simultaneous view of the storm-time ionospheric response from multiple satellites, and the association of local time differences in ionospheric plasma response with measured vertical drift variations.
    Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics 03/2014; · 3.44 Impact Factor
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    ABSTRACT: Recent observations reveal a seasonally occurring layer of aerosol located from 0° to 100°E, 20° to 45°N and extending vertically from about 13 km to 18 km; this has been termed the Asian tropopause aerosol layer (ATAL), and its existence is closely associated with the Asian summer monsoon circulation. Observational studies argue that the ATAL is a recent phenomenon, as the layer is not observed in the satellite record prior to 1998. This suggests that the ATAL may be of anthropogenic origin associated with a shift in the dominant regional emission of sulfur dioxide (SO2) to China and India in the late 1990s. Here we test the hypothesis that SO2emitted from Asia led to the formation of the ATAL using an aerosol microphysical model coupled to a global chemistry climate model. This is the first modeling study to specifically examine the ATAL and its possible origin. From our results, we conclude that the ATAL is most likely due to anthropogenic emissions, but its source cannot solely be attributed to emissions from Asia. Specifically, the results indicate that Chinese and Indian emissions contribute ̃30% of the sulfate aerosol extinction in the ATAL during volcanically quiescent periods. We also show that even small volcanic eruptions preclude our ability to make any conclusions about the existence of the ATAL before 1998 with observations alone.
    01/2014; 119(3).
  • Geonhwa Jee, Han‐Byul Lee, Stanley C. Solomon
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    ABSTRACT: [1] The last solar minimum period was anomalously extended and low in EUV irradiance compared with previous solar minima. It can readily be expected that the thermosphere and ionosphere must be correspondingly affected by this low solar activity. While there have been unanimous reports on the thermospheric changes, being cooler and lower in its density as expected, the ionospheric responses to low solar activity in previous studies were not consistent with each other, probably due to the limited ionospheric observations used for them. In this study, we utilized the measurements of total electron content (TEC) from TOPEX and JASON-1 satellites during the periods of 1992 to 2010, which includes both the last two solar minimum periods, in order to investigate how the ionosphere responded to the extremely low solar activity during the last solar minimum compared with previous solar minimum. Although the global daily mean TECs show negligible differences between the two solar minimum periods, the global TEC maps reveal that there are significant systematic differences ranging from about -30% to +50% depending on local time, latitude and season. The systematic variations of the ionospheric responses seem to mainly result from the relative effects of reduced solar EUV production and reduced recombination rate due to thermospheric changes during the last solar minimum period.
    Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics 01/2014; · 3.44 Impact Factor
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    Stanley C. Solomon, Liying Qian, Alan G. Burns
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    ABSTRACT: [1] The solar minimum period during 2008–2009 was characterized by lower thermospheric density than the previous solar minimum and lower than any previously measured. Recent work used the NCAR Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Electrodynamics General Circulation Model to show that the primary cause of density changes from 1996 to 2008 was a small reduction in solar extreme ultraviolet (EUV) irradiance, causing a decrease in thermospheric temperature and hence a contracted thermosphere. There are similar effects in the ionosphere, with most measurements showing an F region ionosphere that is unusually low in density, and in peak altitude. This paper addresses the question of whether model simulations previously conducted, and their solar, geomagnetic, and anthropogenic inputs, produce ionospheric changes commensurate with observations. We conducted a 15 year model run and obtained good agreement with observations of the global mean thermospheric density at 400 km throughout the solar cycle, with a reduction of ~30% from the 1996 solar minimum to 2008–2009. We then compared ionosonde measurements of the midday peak density of the ionospheric F region (NmF2) to the model simulations at various locations. Reasonable agreement was obtained between measurements and the model, supporting the validity of the neutral density comparisons. The global average NmF2 was estimated to have declined between the two solar minima by ~15%. In these simulations, a 10% reduction of solar EUV plays the largest role in causing the ionospheric change, with a minor contribution from lower geomagnetic activity and a very small additional effect from anthropogenic increase in CO2.
    Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics 10/2013; 118(10). · 3.44 Impact Factor
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    ABSTRACT: [1] We conducted model simulations to examine how changes in concentration of radiatively active trace gases in the middle atmosphere affect long-term changes in the upper atmosphere. We focused our model study on the impact of increases in carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and water vapor (H2O), and decreases in ozone (O3) between 1983 and 2003. We used both the National Center for Atmospheric Research Whole Atmosphere Community Climate Model and the Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Mesosphere-Electrodynamics General Circulation Model, global mean version, in this study. The model simulations indicate that CO2 is the main forcing mechanism of long-term changes in the thermsophere, with minor influences from O3, CH4, and H2O. At 400 km altitude, global mean thermospheric neutral density decreased by ~4.5% due to CO2 forcing alone, whereas it decreased by ~4.8% due to the combined forcing from all four gases. O3 depletion caused cooling in the stratosphere and mesosphere (maximum decrease of 0.5 K) due to reduced absorption of solar ultraviolet radiation, but had nearly no cooling effect in the thermosphere. However, due to thermal contraction in the stratosphere and mesosphere, O3 depletion caused a small decrease in thermospheric neutral density of ~0.25%. Increases in both CH4 and H2O may slightly warm the upper mesosphere and thermosphere due to increased chemical heating and absorption of solar ultraviolet radiation.
    Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics 06/2013; 118(6). · 3.44 Impact Factor
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    Liying Qian, Alan G. Burns, Stanley C. Solomon, Wenbin Wang
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    ABSTRACT: We investigated the relationship between the systematic annual and semiannual variations in the ionosphere and thermosphere using a combination of data analysis and model simulation. A climatology of daytime peak density and height of the ionospheric F2 layer was obtained from GPS radio occultation measurements by the Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere, and Climate (COSMIC) during 2007–2010. These measurements were compared to simulations by the NCAR Thermosphere- Ionosphere-Electrodynamics General Circulation Model (TIE-GCM). Model reproduction of the ionospheric annual and semiannual variations was significantly improved by imposing seasonal variation of eddy diffusion at the lower boundary, which also improves agreement with thermospheric density measurements. Since changes in turbulent mixing affect both the thermosphere and ionosphere by altering the proportion of atomic and molecular gases, these results support the proposition that composition change drives the annual/semiannual variation in both the neutral and ionized components of the coupled system.
    Geophysical Research Letters 05/2013; 40(1-6). · 3.98 Impact Factor
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    ABSTRACT: The wavelength dependence of solar irradiance enhancement during flare events is one of the important factors in determining how the Thermosphere–Ionosphere (T–I) system responds to flares. To investigate the wavelength dependence of flare enhancement, the Flare Irradiance Spectral Model (FISM) was run for 61 X-class flares. The absolute and the percentage increases of solar irradiance at flare peaks, compared to pre-flare conditions, have clear wavelength dependences. The 0–14 nm irradiance increases much more (~680% on average) than that in the 14–25 nm waveband (~65% on average), except at 24 nm (~220%). The average percentage increases for the 25–105 nm and 122–190 nm wavebands are ~120% and ~35%, respectively. The influence of 6 different wavebands (0–14 nm, 14–25 nm, 25–105 nm, 105–120 nm, 121.56 nm, and 122–175 nm) on the thermosphere was examined for the October 28th, 2003 flare (X17-class) event by coupling FISM with the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Thermosphere–Ionosphere-Electrodynamics General Circulation Model (TIE-GCM) under geomagnetically quiet conditions (Kp=1). While the enhancement in the 0–14 nm waveband caused the largest enhancement of the globally integrated solar heating, the impact of solar irradiance enhancement on the thermosphere at 400 km is largest for the 25–105 nm waveband (EUV), which accounts for about 33 K of the total 45 K temperature enhancement, and ~7.4% of the total ~11.5% neutral density enhancement. The effect of 122–175 nm flare radiation on the thermosphere is rather small. The study also illustrates that the high-altitude thermospheric response to the flare radiation at 0–175 nm is almost a linear combination of the responses to the individual wavebands. The upper thermospheric temperature and density enhancements peaked 3–5 h after the maximum flare radiation.
    Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics 01/2013; · 1.42 Impact Factor
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    ABSTRACT: Observations suggest that the optical depth of the stratospheric aerosol layer between 20 and 30km has increased 410% per year since 2000, which is significant for Earth's climate. Contributions to this increase both from moderate volcanic eruptions and from enhanced coal burning in Asia have been suggested. Current observations are insufficient to attribute the contribution of the different sources. Here we use a global climate model coupled to an aerosol microphysical model to partition the contribution of each. We employ model runs that include the increases in anthropogenic sulfur dioxide (SO2) over Asia and the moderate volcanic explosive injections of SO2 observed from 2000 to 2010. Comparison of the model results to observations reveals that moderate volcanic eruptions, rather than anthropogenic influences, are the primary source of the observed increases in stratospheric aerosol.
    Geophysical Research Letters 01/2013; 40(5):999-1004. · 3.98 Impact Factor
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    ABSTRACT: Climate models that do not simulate changes in stratospheric ozone concentrations require ozone input fields to accurately calculate UV fluxes and stratospheric heating rates. In this study, three different global ozone time series that are available for this purpose are compared: the data set of Randel and Wu (2007) (RW07), Cionni et al. (2011) (SPARC), and Bodeker et al. (2012) (BDBP). The latter is a very recent data set, based on the comprehensive ozone measurement database described by Hassler et al. (2008). All three data sets represent multiple-linear regression fits to vertically resolved ozone observations, resulting in a patially and temporally continuous stratospheric ozone field covering at least the period from 1979 to 2005. The main difference between the data sets result from using different observations and including different basis functions for the regression model fits. These three regression-based data sets are compared against observations from ozonesondes and satellites to compare how the data sets represent concentrations, trends, and interannual variability. In the Southern Hemisphere polar region, RW07 and SPARC underestimate the ozone depletion in spring as seen in ozonesonde measurements. A piecewise linear trend regression is performed to estimate the 1979-1996 ozone decrease globally, covering a period of extreme depletion in most regions. BDBP seems to overestimate Arctic and tropical ozone loss over this period somewhat relative to the available measurements, whereas these appear to be underestimated in RW07 and SPARC. In most regions, the three data sets yield ozone values that are within the range of the different observations that serve as input to the regressions. However, the differences among the three suggest that there are large uncertainties in ozone trends. These result in differences of almost a factor of four in radiative forcing, which is important for the resulting climate changes.
    Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 10/2012; 12(10):26561-26605. · 4.88 Impact Factor
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    ABSTRACT: 1] We report preliminary results of a global 3-D ionospheric electron density reanalysis demonstration study during 2002–2011 based on multisource data assimilation. The monthly global ionospheric electron density reanalysis has been done by assimilating the quiet days ionospheric data into a data assimilation model constructed using the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI) 2007 model and a Kalman filter technique. These data include global navigation satellite system (GNSS) observations of ionospheric total electron content (TEC) from ground-based stations, ionospheric radio occultations by CHAMP, GRACE, COSMIC, SAC-C, Metop-A, and the TerraSAR-X satellites, and Jason-1 and 2 altimeter TEC measurements. The output of the reanalysis are 3-D gridded ionospheric electron densities with temporal and spatial resolutions of 1 h in universal time, 5 in latitude, 10 in longitude, and $30 km in altitude. The climatological features of the reanalysis results, such as solar activity dependence, seasonal variations, and the global morphology of the ionosphere, agree well with those in the empirical models and observations. The global electron content derived from the international GNSS service global ionospheric maps, the observed electron density profiles from the Poker Flat Incoherent Scatter Radar during 2007–2010, and f o F 2 observed by the global ionosonde network during 2002–2011 are used to validate the reanalysis method. All comparisons show that the reanalysis have smaller deviations and biases than the IRI-2007 predictions. Especially after April 2006 when the six COSMIC satellites were launched, the reanalysis shows significant improvement over the IRI predictions. The obvious overestimation of the low-latitude ionospheric F region densities by the IRI model during the 23/24 solar minimum is corrected well by the reanalysis. The potential application and improvements of the reanalysis are also discussed. Citation: Yue, X., et al. (2012), Global 3-D ionospheric electron density reanalysis based on multisource data assimilation, J. Geophys. Res., 117, A09325, doi:10.1029/2012JA017968.
    Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres 09/2012; · 3.44 Impact Factor
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    ABSTRACT: Weekly cycles in several meteorological parameters have been previously reported. Yet the extent to which these cycles are caused by anthropogenic activity remains unclear. Some of the complications associated with establishing this link are discussed here. Specifically, we highlight and quantify some common errors that have been made in the application of statistical techniques to this problem. Some errors, including the inappropriate use of the Student ttest, have been significant enough to affect the conclusions of previous studies. A resampling technique that can properly account for both temporal and spatial correlation is evaluated and is shown to be accurate for determining the statistical significance of weekly cycles at the station level and for evaluating total field significance. We demonstrate that this resampling approach performs comparably to a Fourier analysis that evaluates the significance of the power at a seven-day period. Regardless of the analysis technique used, an understanding of the behavior of and uncertainties associated with the statistical analysis is critical to arriving at a justifiable conclusion regarding a human influence on weekly cycles and for putting results in context with other studies. We also discuss some general errors that can be made in weekly cycle analysis. These include selection of an analysis region after identifying where weekly cycles are significant, acceptance of a physical explanation for the hypothesized link that has not been properly tested given its large number of degrees of freedom, and ignoring the correlation among meteorological parameters.
    Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres 07/2012; 117(D13):13203-. · 3.44 Impact Factor
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    ABSTRACT: The solar cycle, often described as an increase and decrease of solar activity with a period of about 11 years, can strongly affect Earth's thermosphere and ionosphere. Although the longest direct record of solar activity is based on sunspot number, a more quantifiable parameter is solar irradiance at extreme ultraviolet (EUV) wavelengths, which varies by more than a factor of 3 over the sunspot cycle. To first order, upper atmospheric variation is a result of changes in ionizing fluxes at EUV wavelengths. As the solar cycle passes its EUV peak and approaches minimum, the number of solar active regions declines, leading to a reduction and then a near absence of coronal mass ejections (CMEs)—episodic events of high-energy bursts of solar plasma that cause geomagnetic storms at Earth. During the solar cycle's declining phase, coronal holes begin to occupy lower latitudes on the solar surface and fall in line with the ecliptic plane.
    Eos Transactions American Geophysical Union 02/2012; 93(8):77-79.
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    ABSTRACT: The record-low thermospheric density during the last solar minimum has been reported and it has been mainly explained as the consequence of the anomalously low solar extreme ultraviolet (EUV) irradiance. In this study, we examined the variation of the energy budget to the Earth's upper atmosphere during last solar cycle from both solar EUV irradiance and geomagnetic energy, including Joule heating and particle precipitation. The globally integrated solar EUV power was calculated from the EUV flux model for aeronomic calculations (EUVAC) driven by the MgII index. The annal average of solar power in 2008 was 33 GW lower than that in 1996. The decrease of the globally integrated geomagnetic energy from 1996 to 2008 was close to 29 GW including 13 GW for Joule heating from Weimer (2005b) and 16 GW for particle precipitation from NOAA Polar-Orbiting Environmental Satellites (POES) measurements. Although the estimate of the solar EUV power and geomagnetic energy vary from model to model, the reduction of the geomagnetic energy was comparable to the solar EUV power. The Thermosphere Ionosphere Electrodynamic General Circulation Model (TIEGCM) simulations indicate that the solar irradiance and geomagnetic energy variations account for 3/4 and 1/4 of the total neutral density decrease in 2008, respectively.
    Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres 01/2012; 117(A9). · 3.44 Impact Factor
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    ABSTRACT: While it is widely known that coronal mass ejections and their related solar wind features are significant drivers of activity with geospace it is less known that corotating interaction regions (CIRs) and the high speed stream (HSS) periods that precede them are also drivers of activity within geospace. The most recent extended and weak solar minimum interval has brought renewed attention to the space weather impacts of CIR+HSS periods since the highly structured and relatively stable coronal hole features on the Sun resulted in numerous CIR+HSS periods. In this paper we examine two Carrington Rotations (CRs) using the Coupled Magnetosphere Ionosphere Thermosphere (CMIT) model. CR2060 lasted from August 14, 2007 to September 11, 2007 and contained three CIR+HSS periods. CR2068, also known as the Whole Heliosphere Interval (WHI), began on March 20, 2008 and lasted until April 16, 2008 and contained two CIR+HSS periods. For each CR simulations driven by both L1 solar wind observations from the OMNI data set and L1 conditions extracted from CORHEL heliospheric simulations were conducted. The heliospheric simulation results capture the velocity and density structures seen in the solar wind well for CR2060 and only get one of the CIR+HSS periods in CR2068. In each CR the heliospheric simulations produce a much weaker IMF and have less temporal variability in all parameters. We compare the results of the CMIT simulations for each CR to observations of the cross polar cap potential (CPCP), hemispheric power (HP), and SYM H index including the computation of RMS and cross correlation error metrics. We examine the response of the thermospheric density during these intervals by utilizing data from the CHAMP satellite. In the magnetosphere we use magnetic field data from the GOES spacecraft to asses the different simulations ability to describe the distribution and intensity the ULF wave power. Our results show that the L1 driven simulations under-estimates the SYM H index and HP and over-estimates the CPCP. We believe that over estimation of the CPCP is directly linked to the low HP highlighting the need for an improved precipitation model within CMIT. The ULF power in the L1 simulations compares well with the observations, especially for the compressional component important in radiation belt energization processes. In all cases, the CMIT simulations driven by the heliospheric simulation results produce dramatically inferior predictions highlighting the importance of having good IMF predictions in heliospheric model results and possibly indicating the importance of having fluctuations in the solar wind.
    Journal of Atmospheric and Solar-Terrestrial Physics 01/2012; · 1.42 Impact Factor

Publication Stats

6k Citations
789.42 Total Impact Points

Institutions

  • 2014
    • Massachusetts Institute of Technology
      Cambridge, Massachusetts, United States
    • National Research Center (CO, USA)
      Boulder, Colorado, United States
    • Planetary Science Institute
      Cambridge, Massachusetts, United States
  • 1981–2014
    • National Center for Atmospheric Research
      • High Altitude Observatory
      Boulder, Colorado, United States
  • 1994–2011
    • National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
      • Chemical Science Division
      Silver Spring, MD, United States
  • 1987–2011
    • University of Colorado
      Denver, Colorado, United States
  • 2004
    • Dartmouth College
      Hanover, New Hampshire, United States
  • 1993–1999
    • University of Colorado at Boulder
      • Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics (LASP)
      Boulder, CO, United States