A. Arneth

Karlsruhe Institute of Technology, Carlsruhe, Baden-Württemberg, Germany

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Publications (208)634.22 Total impact

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    ABSTRACT: Terrestrial ecosystems provide a range of important services to humans, including global and regional climate regulation. These services arise from natural ecosystem functioning as governed by drivers such as climate, atmospheric carbon dioxide mixing ratio, and land-use change. From the perspective of carbon sequestration, numerous studies have assessed trends and projections of the past and future terrestrial carbon cycle, but links to the ecosystem service concept have been hindered by the lack of appropriate quantitative service metrics. The recently introduced concept of the Greenhouse Gas Value (GHGV) accounts for the land-atmosphere exchanges of multiple greenhouse gases by taking into consideration the associated ecosystem pool sizes, annual exchange fluxes and probable effects of natural disturbance in a time-sensitive manner.
    Global Environmental Change 05/2015; 32. DOI:10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2015.03.004 · 6.00 Impact Factor
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    ABSTRACT: The growth rate of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations since industrialization is characterized by large interannual variability, mostly resulting from variability in CO2 uptake by terrestrial ecosystems (typically termed carbon sink). However, the contributions of regional ecosystems to that variability are not well known. Using an ensemble of ecosystem and land-surface models and an empirical observation-based product of global gross primary production, we show that the mean sink, trend, and interannual variability in CO2 uptake by terrestrial ecosystems are dominated by distinct biogeographic regions. Whereas the mean sink is dominated by highly productive lands (mainly tropical forests), the trend and interannual variability of the sink are dominated by semi-arid ecosystems whose carbon balance is strongly associated with circulation-driven variations in both precipitation and temperature. Copyright © 2015, American Association for the Advancement of Science.
    Science 05/2015; 348(6237):895-9. DOI:10.1126/science.aaa1668 · 31.48 Impact Factor
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    ABSTRACT: Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and a methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics, and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates, consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, respectively, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover-change data, fire activity associated with deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The mean ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in SOCEAN is evaluated with data products based on surveys of ocean CO2 measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of independent dynamic global vegetation models forced by observed climate, CO2, and land-cover-change (some including nitrogen–carbon interactions). We compare the mean land and ocean fluxes and their variability to estimates from three atmospheric inverse methods for three broad latitude bands. All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ, reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. For the last decade available (2004–2013), EFF was 8.9 ± 0.4 GtC yr−1, ELUC 0.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, GATM 4.3 ± 0.1 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN 2.6 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND 2.9 ± 0.8 GtC yr−1. For year 2013 alone, EFF grew to 9.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, 2.3% above 2012, continuing the growth trend in these emissions, ELUC was 0.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, GATM was 5.4 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN was 2.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND was 2.5 ± 0.9 GtC yr−1. GATM was high in 2013, reflecting a steady increase in EFF and smaller and opposite changes between SOCEAN and SLAND compared to the past decade (2004–2013). The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 395.31 ± 0.10 ppm averaged over 2013. We estimate that EFF will increase by 2.5% (1.3–3.5%) to 10.1 ± 0.6 GtC in 2014 (37.0 ± 2.2 GtCO2 yr−1), 65% above emissions in 1990, based on projections of world gross domestic product and recent changes in the carbon intensity of the global economy. From this projection of EFF and assumed constant ELUC for 2014, cumulative emissions of CO2 will reach about 545 ± 55 GtC (2000 ± 200 GtCO2) for 1870–2014, about 75% from EFF and 25% from ELUC. This paper documents changes in the methods and data sets used in this new carbon budget compared with previous publications of this living data set (Le Quéré et al., 2013, 2014). All observations presented here can be downloaded from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (doi:10.3334/CDIAC/GCP_2014).
    05/2015; 7(7):47-85. DOI:10.5194/essd-7-47-2015
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    ABSTRACT: Terrestrial ecosystems currently sequester about one third of anthropogenic CO2 emissions each year, an important ecosystem service that dampens climate change. The future fate of this net uptake of CO2 by land based ecosystems is highly uncertain. Most ecosystem models used to predict the future terrestrial carbon cycle share a common architecture, whereby carbon that enters the system as net primary production (NPP) is distributed to plant compartments, transferred to litter and soil through vegetation turnover and then re-emitted to the atmosphere in conjunction with soil decomposition. However, while all models represent the processes of NPP and soil decomposition, they vary greatly in their representations of vegetation turnover and the associated processes governing mortality, disturbance and biome shifts. Here we used a detailed second generation dynamic global vegetation model with advanced representation of vegetation growth and mortality, and the associated turnover. We apply an emulator that describes the carbon flows and pools exactly as in simulations with the full model. The emulator simulates ecosystem dynamics in response to 13 different climate or Earth system model simulations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 ensemble under RCP8.5 radiative forcing. By exchanging carbon cycle processes between these 13 simulations we quantified the relative roles of three main driving processes of the carbon cycle; (I) NPP, (II) vegetation dynamics and turnover and (III) soil decomposition, in terms of their contribution to future carbon (C) uptake uncertainties among the ensemble of climate change scenarios. We found that NPP, vegetation turnover (including structural shifts, wild fires and mortality) and soil decomposition rates explained 49%, 17% and 33%, respectively, of uncertainties in modelled global C-uptake. Uncertainty due to vegetation turnover was further partitioned into stand-clearing disturbances (16%), wild fires (0%), stand dynamics (7%), reproduction (10%) and biome shifts (67%) globally. We conclude that while NPP and soil decomposition rates jointly account for 83% of future climate induced C-uptake uncertainties, vegetation turnover and structure, dominated by biome shifts, represent a significant fraction globally and regionally (tropical forests: 40%), strongly motivating their representation and analysis in future C-cycle studies.
    Environmental Research Letters 05/2015; 10(5). DOI:10.1088/1748-9326/10/5/054019 · 4.09 Impact Factor
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    ABSTRACT: The land and ocean absorb on average just over half of the anthropogenic emissions of carbon dioxide (CO2) every year. These CO2 "sinks" are modulated by climate change and variability. Here we use a suite of nine dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) and four ocean biogeochemical general circulation models (OBGCMs) to estimate trends driven by global and regional climate and atmospheric CO2 in land and oceanic CO2 exchanges with the atmosphere over the period 1990-2009, to attribute these trends to underlying processes in the models, and to quantify the uncertainty and level of inter-model agreement. The models were forced with reconstructed climate fields and observed global atmospheric CO2; land use and land cover changes are not included for the DGVMs. Over the period 1990-2009, the DGVMs simulate a mean global land carbon sink of -2.4 +/- 0.7 PgC yr(-1) with a small significant trend of -0.06 +/- 0.03 PgC yr(-2) (increasing sink). Over the more limited period 1990-2004, the ocean models simulate a mean ocean sink of -2.2 +/- 0.2 PgC yr(-1) with a trend in the net C uptake that is indistinguishable from zero (-0.01 +/- 0.02 PgC yr(-2)). The two ocean models that extended the simulations until 2009 suggest a slightly stronger, but still small, trend of 0.02 +/- 0.01 PgC yr(-2). Trends from land and ocean models compare favourably to the land greenness trends from remote sensing, atmospheric inversion results, and the residual land sink required to close the global carbon budget. Trends in the land sink are driven by increasing net primary production (NPP), whose statistically significant trend of 0.22 +/- 0.08 PgC yr(-2) exceeds a significant trend in heterotrophic respiration of 0.16 +/- 0.05 PgC yr(-2) - primarily as a consequence of widespread CO2 fertilisation of plant production. Most of the land-based trend in simulated net carbon uptake originates from natural ecosystems in the tropics (0.04 +/- 0.01 PgC yr(-2)), with almost no trend over the northern land region, where recent warming and reduced rainfall offsets the positive impact of elevated atmospheric CO2 and changes in growing season length on carbon storage. The small uptake trend in the ocean models emerges because climate variability and change, and in particular increasing sea surface temperatures, tend to counteract the trend in ocean uptake driven by the increase in atmospheric CO2. Large uncertainty remains in the magnitude and sign of modelled carbon trends in several regions, as well as regarding the influence of land use and land cover changes on regional trends.
    Biogeosciences 02/2015; 12(3):653-679. DOI:10.5194/bg-12-653-2015 · 3.75 Impact Factor
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    ABSTRACT: Methanol is the second most abundant volatile organic compound in the troposphere and plays a significant role in atmospheric chemistry. While there is consensus about the dominant role of living plants as the major source and the reaction with OH as the major sink of methanol, global methanol budgets diverge considerably in terms of source/sink estimates reflecting uncertainties in the approaches used to model, and the empirical data used to separately constrain these terms. Here we compiled micrometeorological methanol flux data from eight different study sites and reviewed the corresponding literature in order to provide a first cross-site synthesis of the terrestrial ecosystem-scale methanol exchange and present an independent data-driven view of the land-atmosphere methanol exchange. Our study shows that the controls of plant growth on the production, and thus the methanol emission magnitude, and stomatal conductance on the hourly methanol emission variability, established at the leaf level, hold across sites at the ecosystem-level. Unequivocal evidence for bi-directional methanol exchange at the ecosystem scale is presented. Deposition, which at some sites even exceeds methanol emissions, represents an emerging feature of ecosystem-scale measurements and is likely related to environmental factors favouring the formation of surface wetness. Methanol may adsorb to or dissolve in this surface water and eventually be chemically or biologically removed from it. Management activities in agriculture and forestry are shown to increase local methanol emission by orders of magnitude; they are however neglected at present in global budgets. While contemporary net land methanol budgets are overall consistent with the grand mean of the micrometeorological methanol flux measurements, we caution that the present approach of simulating methanol emission and deposition separately is prone to opposing systematic errors and does not allow taking full advantage of the rich information content of micrometeorological flux measurements.
    Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 01/2015; 15(2):2577-2613. DOI:10.5194/acpd-15-2577-2015 · 4.88 Impact Factor
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    ABSTRACT: Nitrogen (N) is a key element in terrestrial ecosystems as it influences both plant growth and plant interactions with the atmosphere. Accounting for carbon–nitrogen interactions has been found to alter future projections of the terrestrial carbon (C) cycle substantially. Dynamic vegetation models (DVMs) aim to accurately represent both natural vegetation and managed land, not only from a carbon cycle perspective but increasingly so also for a wider range of processes including crop yields. We present here the extended version of the DVM LPJ-GUESS that accounts for N limitation in crops to account for the effects of N fertilisation on yields and biogeochemical cycling. The performance of this new implementation is evaluated against observations from N fertiliser trials and CO 2 enrichment experiments. LPJ-GUESS captures the observed response to both N and CO 2 fertilisation on wheat biomass production, tissue C to N ratios (C : N) and phenology. To test the model's applicability for larger regions, simulations are subsequently performed that cover the wheat-dominated regions of western Europe. When compared to regional yield statistics, the inclusion of C–N dynamics in the model substantially increase the model performance compared to an earlier version of the model that does not account for these interactions. For these simulations, we also demonstrate an implementation of N fertilisation timing for areas where this information is not available. This feature is crucial when accounting for processes in managed ecosystems in large-scale models. Our results highlight the importance of accounting for C–N interactions when modelling agricultural ecosystems, and it is an important step towards accounting for the combined impacts of changes in climate, [CO 2 ] and land use on terrestrial biogeochemical cycles.
    Biogeosciences 01/2015; 12(8):2489-2515. DOI:10.5194/bg-12-2489-2015 · 3.75 Impact Factor
  • Biogeosciences Discussions 01/2015; 12(2):1047-1111. DOI:10.5194/bgd-12-1047-2015
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    ABSTRACT: Recently a considerable amount of effort has been put into quantifying how interactions of the carbon and nitrogen cycle affect future terrestrial carbon sinks. Dynamic vegetation models, representing the nitrogen cycle with varying degree of complexity, have shown diverging constraints of nitrogen dynamics on future carbon sequestration. In this study, we use the dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS to evaluate how population dynamics and resource competition between plant functional types, combined with nitrogen dynamics, have influenced the terrestrial carbon storage in the past and to investigate how terrestrial carbon and nitrogen dynamics might change in the future (1850 to 2100; one exemplary "business-as-usual" climate scenario). Single factor model experiments of CO2 fertilisation and climate change show generally similar directions of the responses of C-N interactions, compared to the C-only version of the model, as documented in previous studies. Under a RCP 8.5 scenario, nitrogen limitation suppresses potential CO2 fertilisation, reducing the cumulative net ecosystem carbon uptake between 1850 and 2100 by 61%, and soil warming-induced increase in nitrogen mineralisation reduces terrestrial carbon loss by 31%. When environmental changes are considered conjointly, carbon sequestration is limited by nitrogen dynamics until present. However, during the 21st century nitrogen dynamics induce a net increase in carbon sequestration, resulting in an overall larger carbon uptake of 17% over the full period. This contradicts earlier model results that showed an 8 to 37% decrease in carbon uptake, questioning the often stated assumption that projections of future terrestrial C dynamics from C-only models are too optimistic.
    Biogeosciences 11/2014; 11(21-1):151-185. DOI:10.5194/bgd-11-151-2014 · 3.75 Impact Factor
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    ABSTRACT: earth-syst-dynam-discuss.net/5/1075/2014/ doi:10.5194/esdd-5-1075-2014 © Author(s) 2014. CC Attribution 3.0 License. This discussion paper is/has been under review for the journal Earth System Dynamics (ESD). Please refer to the corresponding final paper in ESD if available. Correspondence to: K. Frieler (katja.frieler@pik-potsdam.de) Published by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union. Abstract In order to achieve climate change mitigation, long-term decisions are required that must be reconciled with other societal goals that draw on the same resources. For example, ensuring food security for a growing population may require an expansion of crop land, thereby reducing natural carbon sinks or the area available for bio-energy 5 production. Here, we show that current impact-model uncertainties pose an important challenge to long-term mitigation planning and propose a new risk-assessment and decision framework that accounts for competing interests. Based on cross-sectorally consistent simulations generated within the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISI-MIP) we discuss potential gains and lim-10 itations of additional irrigation and trade-offs of the expansion of agricultural land as two possible response measures to climate change and growing food demand. We de-scribe an illustrative example in which the combination of both measures may close the supply demand gap while leading to a loss of approximately half of all natural carbon sinks. 15 We highlight current limitations of available simulations and additional steps required for a comprehensive risk assessment.
    Earth System Dynamics Discussions  09/2014; 5:1075-1099. DOI:10.5194/esdd-5-1075-2014
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    ABSTRACT: Land-use change (LUC) has fundamentally altered the form and function of the terrestrial biosphere. Increasing human population, the drive for higher living standards, and the potential challenges of mitigating and adapting to global environmental change, mean that further changes in LUC are unavoidable. LUC has direct consequences on climate, via emissions of greenhouse gases and changing the surface energy balance, but also by affecting the emission of biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs). Isoprenoids, which dominate global BVOC emissions, are highly reactive and strongly modify atmospheric composition. The effects of LUC on BVOC emissions and related atmospheric chemistry have been largely ignored so far. However, compared to natural ecosystems, most tree species used in bioenergy plantations are strong BVOC emitters, whereas intensively cultivated crops typically emit less BVOCs. Here we summarize the current knowledge on LUC-driven BVOC emissions and how these might affect atmospheric composition and climate. We further discuss land-management and plant-breeding strategies which could be taken to move towards climate-friendly BVOC emissions, whilst simultaneously maintaining or improving key ecosystem functions such as crop yield under a changing environment.
    Plant Cell and Environment 09/2014; DOI:10.1111/pce.12453 · 5.91 Impact Factor
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    ABSTRACT: Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe datasets and a methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates, consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissions from fossil fuel combustion and cement production (EFF) are based on energy statistics and cement production data, respectively, while emissions from Land-Use Change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover change data, fire activity associated with deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The mean ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in SOCEAN is evaluated with data products based on surveys of ocean CO2 measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of independent Dynamic Global Vegetation Models forced by observed climate, CO2 and land cover change (some including nitrogen-carbon interactions). We compare the variability and mean land and ocean fluxes to estimates from three atmospheric inverse methods for three broad latitude bands. All uncertainties are reported as ± 1σ, reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. For the last decade available (2004-2013), EFF was 8.9 ± 0.4 GtC yr-1, ELUC 0.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr-1, GATM 4.3 ± 0.1 GtC yr-1, SOCEAN 2.6 ± 0.5 GtC yr-1, and SLAND 2.9 ± 0.8 GtC yr-1. For year 2013 alone, EFF grew to 9.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr-1, 2.3 % above 2012, contining the growth trend in these emissions, ELUC was 0.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr-1, GATM was 5.4 ± 0.2 GtC yr-1, SOCEAN was 2.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr-1 and SLAND was 2.5 ± 0.9 GtC yr-1. GATM was high in 2013 reflecting a steady increase in EFF and smaller and opposite changes between SOCEAN and SLAND compared to the past decade (2004-2013). The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 395.31 ± 0.10 ppm averaged over 2013. We estimate that EFF will increase by 2.5% (1.3-3.5%) to 10.1 ± 0.5 GtC in 2014 (37.0 ± 1.9 GtCO2 yr-1), 65% above emissions in 1990, based on projections of World Gross Domestic Product and recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy. With this projection, cumulative emissions of CO2 will reach about 545 ± 55 GtC (2000 ± 200 GtCO2) for 1870-2014, about 75% from EFF and 25% from ELUC. This paper documents changes in the methods and datasets used in this new carbon budget compared with previous publications of this living dataset (Le Quéré et al., 2013; Le Quéré et al., 2014). All observations presented here can be downloaded from the Carbon Dioxide Information Analysis Center (doi: 10.3334/CDIAC/GCP_2014).
    09/2014; 7(7):521-610. DOI:10.5194/essdd-7-521-2014
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    ABSTRACT: Feedbacks mechanisms are essential components of our climate system, as they either increase or decrease changes in climate-related quantities in the presence of external forcings. In this work, we provide the first quantitative estimate regarding the terrestrial climate feedback loop connecting the increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration, changes in gross primary production (GPP) associated with the carbon uptake, organic aerosol formation in the atmosphere, and transfer of both diffuse and global radiation. Our approach was to combine process-level understanding with comprehensive, long-term field measurement data set collected from a boreal forest site in southern Finland. Our best estimate of the gain in GPP resulting from the feedback is 1.3 (range 1.02-1.5), which is larger than the gains of the few atmospheric chemistry-climate feedbacks estimated using large-scale models. Our analysis demonstrates the power of using comprehensive field measurements in investigating the complicated couplings between the biosphere and atmosphere on one hand, and the need for complementary approaches relying on the combination of field data, satellite observations model simulations on the other hand.
    Boreal Environment Research 09/2014; 19(B, SI):122-131. · 1.14 Impact Factor
  • Almut Arneth, Calum Brown, Mark Rounsevell
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    ABSTRACT: Understanding the links between land-use change (LUC) and climate change is vital in developing effective land-based climate mitigation policies and adaptation measures. Although mitigation and adaptation are human-mediated processes, current global-scale modelling tools do not account for societal learning and other human responses to environmental change. We propose the agent functional type (AFT) method to advance the representation of these processes, by combining socio-economics (agent-based modelling) with natural sciences (dynamic global vegetation models). Initial AFT-based simulations show the emergence of realistic LUC patterns that reflect known LUC processes, demonstrating the potential of the method to enhance our understanding of the role of people in the Earth system.
    Nature Climate Change 07/2014; 4(7):550-557. DOI:10.1038/NCLIMATE2250 · 15.30 Impact Factor
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    ABSTRACT: Accurate assessment of anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their redistribution among the atmosphere, ocean, and terrestrial biosphere is important to better understand the global carbon cycle, support the development of climate policies, and project future climate change. Here we describe data sets and a methodology to quantify all major components of the global carbon budget, including their uncertainties, based on the combination of a range of data, algorithms, statistics and model estimates and their interpretation by a broad scientific community. We discuss changes compared to previous estimates, consistency within and among components, alongside methodology and data limitations. CO2 emissions from fossil-fuel combustion and cement production (EFF) are based on energy statistics, while emissions from land-use change (ELUC), mainly deforestation, are based on combined evidence from land-cover change data, fire activity associated with deforestation, and models. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration is measured directly and its rate of growth (GATM) is computed from the annual changes in concentration. The mean ocean CO2 sink (SOCEAN) is based on observations from the 1990s, while the annual anomalies and trends are estimated with ocean models. The variability in SOCEAN is evaluated for the first time in this budget with data products based on surveys of ocean CO2 measurements. The global residual terrestrial CO2 sink (SLAND) is estimated by the difference of the other terms of the global carbon budget and compared to results of independent dynamic global vegetation models forced by observed climate, CO2 and land cover change (some including nitrogen–carbon interactions). All uncertainties are reported as ±1σ, reflecting the current capacity to characterise the annual estimates of each component of the global carbon budget. For the last decade available (2003–2012), EFF was 8.6 ± 0.4 GtC yr−1, ELUC 0.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, GATM 4.3 ± 0.1 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN 2.5 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, and SLAND 2.8 ± 0.8 GtC yr−1. For year 2012 alone, EFF grew to 9.7 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, 2.2% above 2011, reflecting a continued growing trend in these emissions, GATM was 5.1 ± 0.2 GtC yr−1, SOCEAN was 2.9 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1, and assuming an ELUC of 1.0 ± 0.5 GtC yr−1 (based on the 2001–2010 average), SLAND was 2.7 ± 0.9 GtC yr−1. GATM was high in 2012 compared to the 2003–2012 average, almost entirely reflecting the high EFF. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration reached 392.52 ± 0.10 ppm averaged over 2012. We estimate that EFF will increase by 2.1% (1.1–3.1%) to 9.9 ± 0.5 GtC in 2013, 61% above emissions in 1990, based on projections of world gross domestic product and recent changes in the carbon intensity of the economy. With this projection, cumulative emissions of CO2 will reach about 535 ± 55 GtC for 1870–2013, about 70% from EFF (390 ± 20 GtC) and 30% from ELUC (145 ± 50 GtC).
    06/2014; 6:235-263. DOI:10.5194/essd-6-235-2014
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    ABSTRACT: We investigated the millennial variability (1000 AD-2000 AD) of global Biogenic Volatile Organic Compound (BVOC) emissions by using two independent numerical models: The Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature (MEGAN), for isoprene, monoterpene and sesquiterpene and Lund-Potsdam-Jena General Ecosystem Simulator (LPJ-GUESS), for isoprene and monoterpenes. We found the millennial trends of global isoprene emissions to be mostly affected by land cover and atmospheric carbon dioxide changes, whereas monoterpene and sesquiterpene emission trends were dominated by temperature change. Isoprene emissions declined substantially in regions with large and rapid land cover change. In addition, isoprene emission sensitivity to drought proved to have significant short-term global effects. By the end of the past millennium MEGAN isoprene emissions were 634 TgC yr−1 (13% and 19% less than during 1750–1850 and 1000–1200, respectively) and LPJ-GUESS emissions were 323 TgC yr−1 (15% and 20% less than during 1750–1850 and 1000–1200, respectively). Monoterpene emissions were 89 TgC yr−1 (10% and 6% higher than during 1750–1850 and 1000–1200, respectively) in MEGAN, and 24 TgC yr−1 (2% higher and 5% less thanduring 1750–1850 and 1000–1200, respectively) in LPJ-GUESS. MEGAN sesquiterpene emissions were 36 TgC yr−1 (10% and 4% higher than during 1750–1850 and 1000–1200, respectively). Although both models capture similar emission trends, the magnitude of the emissions are different. This highlights the importance of building better constraints on VOC emissions from terrestrial vegetation.
    06/2014; 119(11). DOI:10.1002/2013JD021238
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    ABSTRACT: A primary goal of Earth system modelling is to improve understanding of the interactions and feedbacks be- tween human decision making and biophysical processes. The nexus of land use and land cover change (LULCC) and the climate system is an important example. LULCC con- tributes to global and regional climate change, while climate affects the functioning of terrestrial ecosystems and LULCC. However, at present, LULCC is poorly represented in global circulation models (GCMs). LULCC models that are explicit about human behaviour and decision-making processes have been developed at local to regional scales, but the principles of these approaches have not yet been applied to the global scale level in ways that deal adequately with both direct and indirect feedbacks from the climate system. In this article, we explore current knowledge about LULCC modelling and the interactions between LULCC,GCMs and dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs). In doing so, we propose new ways forward for improving LULCC representations in Earth system models. We conclude that LULCC models need to better conceptualise the alternatives for upscaling from the local to global scale. This involves better representation of human agency, including processes such as learning, adaptation and agent evolution, formalising the role and emergence of governance structures, institutional arrangements and pol- icy as endogenous processes and better theorising about the role of teleconnections and connectivity across global net- works. Our analysis underlines the importance of observational data in global-scale assessments and the need for co- ordination in synthesising and assimilating available data.
    Earth System Dynamics 02/2014; 5(1):117-137. DOI:10.5194/esd-5-117-2014 · 2.77 Impact Factor
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    ABSTRACT: This paper, developed under the framework of the RECCAP initiative, aims at providing improved estimates of the carbon and GHG (CO2, CH4 and N2O) balance of continental Africa. The various components and processes of the African carbon and GHG budget are considered, existing data reviewed, and new data from different methodologies (inventories, ecosystem flux measurements, models, and atmospheric inversions) presented. Uncertainties are quantified and current gaps and weaknesses in knowledge and monitoring systems described in order to guide future requirements. The majority of results agree that Africa is a small sink of carbon on an annual scale, with an average value of −0.61 ± 0.58 Pg C yr−1. Nevertheless, the emissions of CH4 and N2O may turn Africa into a net source of radiative forcing in CO2 equivalent terms. At sub-regional level, there is significant spatial variability in both sources and sinks, due to the diversity of biomes represented and differences in the degree of anthropic impacts. Southern Africa is the main source region; while central Africa, with its evergreen tropical forests, is the main sink. Emissions from land-use change in Africa are significant (around 0.32 ± 0.05 Pg C yr−1), even higher than the fossil fuel emissions: this is a unique feature among all the continents. There could be significant carbon losses from forest land even without deforestation, resulting from the impact of selective logging. Fires play a significant role in the African carbon cycle, with 1.03 ± 0.22 Pg C yr−1 of carbon emissions, and 90% originating in savannas and dry woodlands. A large portion of the wild fire emissions are compensated by CO2 uptake during the growing season, but an uncertain fraction of the emission from wood harvested for domestic use is not. Most of these fluxes have large interannual variability, on the order of ±0.5 Pg C yr−1 in standard deviation, accounting for around 25% of the year-to-year variation in the global carbon budget. Despite the high uncertainty, the estimates provided in this paper show the important role that Africa plays in the global carbon cycle, both in terms of absolute contribution, and as a key source of interannual variability.
    Biogeosciences 01/2014; 11(2):381-407. DOI:10.5194/bg-11-381-2014 · 3.75 Impact Factor
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    ABSTRACT: This chapter provides an overview of the current knowledge on aerosols in the marine atmosphere and the effects of aerosols on climate and on processes in the oceanic surface layer. Aerosol particles in the marine atmosphere originate predominantly from direct production at the sea surface due to the interaction between wind and waves (sea spray aerosol, or SSA) and indirect production by gas to particle conversion. These aerosols are supplemented by aerosols produced over the continents, as well as aerosols emitted by volcanoes and ship traffic, a large part of it being deposited to the ocean surface by dry and wet deposition. The SSA sources, chemical composition and ensuing physical and optical effects, are discussed. An overview is presented of continental sources and their ageing and mixing processes during transport. The current status of our knowledge on effects of marine aerosols on the Earth radiative balance, both direct by their interaction with solar radiation and indirect through their effects on cloud properties, is discussed. The deposition on the ocean surface of some key species, such as nutrients, their bioavailability and how they impact biogeochemical cycles are shown and discussed through different time and space scales approaches.
    Ocean-Atmosphere Interactions of Gases and Particles, Springer Earth System Sciences edited by P.S. Liss and M.T. Johnson, 01/2014: chapter Ocean–atmosphere interactions of particles: pages 171-246; Springer Berlin Heidelberg..

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Institutions

  • 2012–2015
    • Karlsruhe Institute of Technology
      • Institute of Meteorology and Climate Research
      Carlsruhe, Baden-Württemberg, Germany
    • University of Oklahoma
      Norman, Oklahoma, United States
  • 2012–2013
    • Klinikum Garmisch-Partenkirchen
      Markt Garmisch-Partenkirchen, Bavaria, Germany
  • 2003–2013
    • Lund University
      • Department of Earth and Ecosystem Sciences
      Lund, Skåne, Sweden
  • 2002–2010
    • Max Planck Institute for Biogeochemistry Jena
      Jena, Thuringia, Germany
  • 2009
    • University of Helsinki
      • Department of Physical Sciences
      Helsinki, Uusimaa, Finland
  • 2002–2008
    • Max Planck Institute for Meteorology
      Hamburg, Hamburg, Germany
  • 1998–2001
    • University of Lincoln
      • School of Social and Political Sciences
      Lincoln, ENG, United Kingdom