David Kaimowitz

Publications of David Kaimowitz

• Modeling deforestation at distinct geographic scales and time periods in Santa Cruz, Bolivia

  Authors: Benoît Mertens, David Kaimowitz, Atie Puntodewo, Jerome K. Vanclay, Patricia Mendez

  Jerome K Vanclay.

  This article analyzes geo-referenced data to elucidate the relations between deforestation and access to roads and markets, attributes of the physical environment, land tenure, and zoning policies inThis article analyzes geo-referenced data to elucidate the relations between deforestation and access to roads and markets, attributes of the physical environment, land tenure, and zoning policies in Santa Cruz, Bolivia. It presents separate models for Santa Cruz as a whole and for seven different zones within Santa Cruz, as well as for two different time periods (pre-1989 and 1989 to 1994). The relation between deforestation and the explanatory variables varies depending on geographic scale and the zone and time period analyzed. At the department scale, locations closer to roads and the city and places that have more fertile soils and wetter climates have a greater probability of being deforested. The same applies to colonization areas. Protected areas and forest concessions are less likely to be deforested. Nevertheless, in many specific zones, these variables had no significant impact or actually had the opposite impact than in the entire department. Most of these relations were weaker between 1989 and 1994 than in the previous period.

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• Spatial Regression Analysis of Deforestation in Santa Cruz, Bolivia

  Authors: David Kaimowitz, P. Mendez, Atie Puntodewo, Jerome K. Vanclay

  This paper applies a spatial economic regression model to analyze the relation between deforestation in the period from 1989 to 1994 and access to roads and markets, ecological conditions, landThis paper applies a spatial economic regression model to analyze the relation between deforestation in the period from 1989 to 1994 and access to roads and markets, ecological conditions, land tenure, and zoning policies in Santa Cruz, Bolivia. The data comes from a Geographic Information System (GIS) compiled by the Natural Resources Department of the Santa Cruz Government. Locations closer to roads and the City of Santa Cruz and that have more fertile soils and higher rainfall have a greater probability of being deforested. The same also applies to colonization areas. National parks and areas occupied by indigenous people do not have significantly less deforestation than sites with similar acess and ecological conditions. Forest concessions, on the other hand seem to protect forests.

• Spatially Explicit Model of Deforestation in Bolivia

  Authors: Jerome K. Vanclay, David Kaimowitz, Atie Puntodewo, P. Mendez

  A GIS compiled by the Departmental Government of Santa Cruz, Bolivia offers data that may help to resolve some competing theories of tropical deforestation. The GIS contains many attributes relatingA GIS compiled by the Departmental Government of Santa Cruz, Bolivia offers data that may help to resolve some competing theories of tropical deforestation. The GIS contains many attributes relating to land use at two points in time, 1989 and 1994, and allow us to address questions like: 1. What has been the impact of past road construction on deforestation and land use? 2. What impacts might be expected from future road construction? 3. What impact do zoning policies such as forest concessions and protected areas have? 4. What influence do cultural factors have on forest clearing and fragmentation? We discuss our methodology and report interim results. We seek to provoke discussion on appropriate statistical procedures for such analyses.