[show abstract][hide abstract] ABSTRACT: The purpose of this study was to develop accurate models and nomograms to predict local recurrence, distant metastases, and survival for patients with locally advanced rectal cancer treated with long-course chemoradiotherapy (CRT) followed by surgery and to allow for a selection of patients who may benefit most from postoperative adjuvant chemotherapy and close follow-up.
All data (N = 2,795) from five major European clinical trials for rectal cancer were pooled and used to perform an extensive survival analysis and to develop multivariate nomograms based on Cox regression. Data from one trial was used as an external validation set. The variables used in the analysis were sex, age, clinical tumor stage stage, tumor location, radiotherapy dose, concurrent and adjuvant chemotherapy, surgery procedure, and pTNM stage. Model performance was evaluated by the concordance index (c-index). Risk group stratification was proposed for the nomograms.
The nomograms are able to predict events with a c-index for external validation of local recurrence (LR; 0.68), distant metastases (DM; 0.73), and overall survival (OS; 0.70). Pathologic staging is essential for accurate prediction of long-term outcome. Both preoperative CRT and adjuvant chemotherapy have an added value when predicting LR, DM, and OS rates. The stratification in risk groups allows significant distinction between Kaplan-Meier curves for outcome.
The easy-to-use nomograms can predict LR, DM, and OS over a 5-year period after surgery. They may be used as decision support tools in future trials by using the three defined risk groups to select patients for postoperative chemotherapy and close follow-up (http://www.predictcancer.org).
Journal of Clinical Oncology 08/2011; 29(23):3163-72. · 18.04 Impact Factor
[show abstract][hide abstract] ABSTRACT: To report the final data of a Phase I and II study (1839IL/0092) on the combination of an anti-epidermal growth factor receptor drug (gefitinib), infusional 5-fluorouracil, and preoperative radiotherapy in locally advanced, resectable rectal cancer.
Patients received 45 Gy in the posterior pelvis plus a boost of 5.4 Gy on the tumor and corresponding mesorectum. Infusional 5-fluorouracil (5-FU) and gefitinib (250 and 500 mg/day) were delivered during all radiotherapy course. An IORT boost of 10 Gy was allowed. The main endpoints of the study were to establish dose-limiting toxicity (DLT) and to evaluate the rate of pathologic response according to the tumor regression grade (TRG) Mandard score.
A total of 41 patients were enrolled. The DLT was not reached in the 6 patients enrolled in the dose-escalation part of the study. Of the 33 patients in the Phase II, TRG 1 was recorded in 10 patients (30.3%) and TRG 2 in 7 patients (21.2 %); overall 17 of 33 patients (51.5%) had a favorable endpoint. Overall, Grade 3+ toxicity was recorded in 16 patients (41%); these included Grade 3+ gastrointestinal toxicity in 8 patients (20.5%), Grade 3+ skin toxicity in 6 (15.3%), and Grade 3+ genitourinary toxicity in 4 (10.2%). A dose reduction of gefitinib was necessary in 24 patients (61.5%).
Gefitinib can be associated with 5-FU-based preoperative chemoradiation at the dose of 500 mg without any life-threatening toxicity and with a high pCR (30.3%). The relevant rate of Grade 3 gastrointestinal toxicity suggests that 250 mg would be more tolerable dose in a neaoadjuvant approach with radiotherapy and infusional 5-FU.
International journal of radiation oncology, biology, physics 05/2008; 72(3):644-9. · 4.59 Impact Factor