Carina Selander

Publications (5)0 Total impact

• Article: Robust Taylor rules under heterogeneity in currency trade

  Mikael Bask, Carina Selander
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  ABSTRACT: It is demonstrated in this paper that the exchange rate should be included in the Taylor rule when there is heterogeneity in currency trade to have a determinate and least squares learnable rational expectations equilibrium that also is desirable in an inflation rate targeting regime. Moreover, for certain Taylor rule parameterizations, these properties of the interest rate rule are robust against the degree of technical trading in currency trading.
  International Economics and Economic Policy 04/2012; 6(3):283-313.
• Article: Robust Taylor rules in an open economy with heterogeneous expectations and least squares learning

  Mikael Bask, Carina Selander
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  ABSTRACT: The aim of this paper is threefold: (i) to investigate if there is a unique rational expectations equilibrium (REE) in the small open economy in Galí and Monacelli (2005) that is augmented with technical trading in the foreign exchange market; (ii) to investigate if the unique REE is adaptively learnable in a recursive least squares sense; and (iii) to investigate if the unique and adaptively learnable REE is desirable in an inflation rate targeting regime in the sense that a low and not too variable CPI inflation rate in equilibrium is achieved. The monetary authority is using a Taylor rule when setting the nominal interest rate, and we investigate numerically the properties of the model developed. A main conclusion is that the monetary authority should increase (decrease) the interest rate when the CPI inflation rate increases (decreases) and when the currency gets stronger (weaker) to have a desirable rule that is robust with respect to the degree of technical trading in the foreign exchange market. Thus, the value of the currency is a better response variable than the output gap in the most desirable parametrizations of the interest rate rule.
  06/2007;
• Article: Chartist Trading in Exchange Rate Theory

  Carina Selander
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  ABSTRACT: This thesis consists of four papers, of which paper 1 and 4 are co-written with Mikael Bask. Paper [1] implements chartists trading in a sticky-price monetary model for determining the exchange rate. It is demonstrated that chartists cause the exchange rate to "overshoot the overshooting equilibrium" of a sticky-price monetary model. Chartists base their trading on a short-long moving average. The importance of technical trading depends inversely on the time horizon in currency trade. The exchange rate's perfect foresight path near long-run equilibrium is derived and it is demonstrated that the shorter the time horizon, the greater the exchange rate overshooting. The aim of Paper [2] is to see how the dynamics of the basic target zone model changes when chartists and fundamentalists are introduced. Chartists use technical trading and the relative importance of technical and fundamental analyses depend on the time horizon in currency trade. The model also includes realignment expectations, which increase with the weight of chartists. The introduction of chartists may significantly reduce and reverse, the so-called "honeymoon effect" of a fully credible target zone. Further, chartists may cause the correlation between the exchange rate and the instantaneous interest rate differential to become either positive or negative. Using a chartist-fundamentalist set-up, Paper [3] derives the effects on the current exchange rate of central bank intervention. Fundamentalists have rational expectations and chartists use so called support and resistance levels in their trading. This technique results in chartists having both bandwagon expectations and regressive expectations. Chartists may enhance or suppress the effect of intervention depending on their expectations. The results indicate that a chartist channel exists. The aim of Paper [4] is threefold; (i) to investigate if there is a unique rational expectations equilibrium (REE) in a new Keynesian macroeconomic model augmented with technical trading, (ii), to investigate if the unique REE is adaptively learnable and, (iii), to investigate if this unique and adaptively learnable REE is desirable in an inflation rate targeting regime. The monetary authority is using a Taylor rule when setting the interest rate. A main conclusion is that a robust Taylor rule implies that the monetary authority should increase (decrease) the interest rate when the CPI inflation rate increases (decreases) and when the currency gets stronger (weaker).
  12/2006;
• Article: Taxation, Dividend Payments and Ex-Day Price Changes

  Sven-Olov Daunfeldt, Carina Selander, Magnus Wikström
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  ABSTRACT: The purpose of the paper is to study the effects of taxation on dividend payments and ex-dividend price changes in Sweden during 1991-1995. Under this period, dividends and capital gains were taxed at a flat rate. Tax changes in Sweden during the 1990s thus provide an opportunity to include direct measures of the tax treatment of dividends and capital gains in the empirical analysis, in contrast to previous studies. The results indicate that tax reforms have large effects on dividend payments, while the effects on ex-dividend price changes are less conclusive.
  07/2006;
• Article: Heterogeneous Beliefs in a Sticky-Price Foreign Exchange Model

  Mikael Bask, Carina Selander