[Show abstract][Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: Cardiovascular disease (CVD) remains the leading cause of death globally. Primary prevention of CVD requires cost-effective strategies to identify individuals at high risk in order to help target preventive interventions. An integral part of this approach is the use of CVD risk scores. Limitations in previous studies have prevented reliable inference about the potential advantages and the potential harms of using CVD risk scores as part of preventive strategies. We aim to evaluate short-term effects of providing different types of information about coronary heart disease (CHD) risk, alongside lifestyle advice, on health-related behaviours.
In a parallel-group, open randomised trial, we are allocating 932 male and female blood donors with no previous history of CVD aged 40–84 years in England to either no intervention (control group) or to one of three active intervention groups: i) lifestyle advice only; ii) lifestyle advice plus information on estimated 10-year CHD risk based on phenotypic characteristics; and iii) lifestyle advice plus information on estimated 10-year CHD risk based on phenotypic and genetic characteristics. The primary outcome is change in objectively measured physical activity. Secondary outcomes include: objectively measured dietary behaviours; cardiovascular risk factors; current medication and healthcare usage; perceived risk; cognitive evaluation of provision of CHD risk scores; and psychological outcomes. The follow-up assessment takes place 12 weeks after randomisation. The experiences, attitudes and concerns of a subset of participants will be also studied using individual interviews and focus groups.
The INFORM study has been designed to provide robust findings about the short-term effects of providing different types of information on estimated 10-year CHD risk and lifestyle advice on health-related behaviours.
Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN17721237. Registered 12 January 2015.
BMC Public Health 09/2015; 15(1):868. DOI:10.1186/s12889-015-2192-5 · 2.26 Impact Factor
[Show abstract][Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: The prevalence of cardiometabolic multimorbidity is increasing.
To estimate reductions in life expectancy associated with cardiometabolic multimorbidity.
Age- and sex-adjusted mortality rates and hazard ratios (HRs) were calculated using individual participant data from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration (689 300 participants; 91 cohorts; years of baseline surveys: 1960-2007; latest mortality follow-up: April 2013; 128 843 deaths). The HRs from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration were compared with those from the UK Biobank (499 808 participants; years of baseline surveys: 2006-2010; latest mortality follow-up: November 2013; 7995 deaths). Cumulative survival was estimated by applying calculated age-specific HRs for mortality to contemporary US age-specific death rates.
A history of 2 or more of the following: diabetes mellitus, stroke, myocardial infarction (MI).
All-cause mortality and estimated reductions in life expectancy.
In participants in the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration without a history of diabetes, stroke, or MI at baseline (reference group), the all-cause mortality rate adjusted to the age of 60 years was 6.8 per 1000 person-years. Mortality rates per 1000 person-years were 15.6 in participants with a history of diabetes, 16.1 in those with stroke, 16.8 in those with MI, 32.0 in those with both diabetes and MI, 32.5 in those with both diabetes and stroke, 32.8 in those with both stroke and MI, and 59.5 in those with diabetes, stroke, and MI. Compared with the reference group, the HRs for all-cause mortality were 1.9 (95% CI, 1.8-2.0) in participants with a history of diabetes, 2.1 (95% CI, 2.0-2.2) in those with stroke, 2.0 (95% CI, 1.9-2.2) in those with MI, 3.7 (95% CI, 3.3-4.1) in those with both diabetes and MI, 3.8 (95% CI, 3.5-4.2) in those with both diabetes and stroke, 3.5 (95% CI, 3.1-4.0) in those with both stroke and MI, and 6.9 (95% CI, 5.7-8.3) in those with diabetes, stroke, and MI. The HRs from the Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration were similar to those from the more recently recruited UK Biobank. The HRs were little changed after further adjustment for markers of established intermediate pathways (eg, levels of lipids and blood pressure) and lifestyle factors (eg, smoking, diet). At the age of 60 years, a history of any 2 of these conditions was associated with 12 years of reduced life expectancy and a history of all 3 of these conditions was associated with 15 years of reduced life expectancy.
Mortality associated with a history of diabetes, stroke, or MI was similar for each condition. Because any combination of these conditions was associated with multiplicative mortality risk, life expectancy was substantially lower in people with multimorbidity.
JAMA The Journal of the American Medical Association 07/2015; 314(1):52-60. DOI:10.1001/jama.2015.7008 · 35.29 Impact Factor
[Show abstract][Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: Background To investigate potential cardiovascular and other eff ects of long-term pharmacological interleukin 1 (IL-1) inhibition, we studied genetic variants that produce inhibition of IL-1, a master regulator of infl ammation.
[Show abstract][Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: Background
Left ventricular (LV) mass ascertained using echocardiography may enhance risk stratification for sudden cardiac death. The objective of this study was to assess the association between left ventricular mass and the risk of sudden cardiac death in a population‐based cohort and determine its incremental value beyond conventional risk predictors.
Methods and Results
Assessment of LV mass was based on echocardiography in a sample of 905 middle‐aged men representative of the general population (aged 42 to 61 years). During the follow‐up period of 20 years, there were a total of 63 sudden cardiac deaths. In a comparison of the top versus the bottom quartile of LV mass adjusted by body surface area (>120 versus <89 g/m2), the multivariable adjusted hazard ratio was 2.57 (95% CI 1.24 to 5.31, P=0.010). Further adjustment for LV function only modestly attenuated the risk of sudden cardiac death among men with LV mass of >120 g/m2 (hazard ratio 2.29, 95% CI 1.10 to 4.74, P=0.026). Addition of LV mass adjusted by body surface area to a conventional risk factor model for sudden cardiac death improved the integrated discrimination index by 0.033 (95% CI 0.009 to 0.057, P=0.007) and the category‐free net reclassification index by 0.501 (95% CI 0.092 to 0.911, P=0.016).
Indexed LV mass by body surface area is an independent predictor of sudden cardiac death and may help improve the risk prediction of sudden cardiac death beyond conventional cardiovascular risk factors.
Journal of the American Heart Association 10/2014; 3(6). DOI:10.1161/JAHA.114.001285 · 4.31 Impact Factor
[Show abstract][Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: Objective:
We examined the influence of clinical, radiologic, and echocardiographic characteristics on antithrombotic choice in patients with cryptogenic stroke (CS) and patent foramen ovale (PFO), hypothesizing that features suggestive of paradoxical embolism might lead to greater use of anticoagulation.
The Risk of Paradoxical Embolism Study combined 12 databases to create the largest dataset of patients with CS and known PFO status. We used generalized linear mixed models with a random effect of component study to explore whether anticoagulation was preferentially selected based on the following: (1) younger age and absence of vascular risk factors, (2) "high-risk" echocardiographic features, and (3) neuroradiologic findings.
A total of 1,132 patients with CS and PFO treated with anticoagulation or antiplatelets were included. Overall, 438 participants (39%) were treated with anticoagulation with a range (by database) of 22% to 54%. Treatment choice was not influenced by age or vascular risk factors. However, neuroradiologic findings (superficial or multiple infarcts) and high-risk echocardiographic features (large shunts, shunt at rest, and septal hypermobility) were predictors of anticoagulation use.
Both antithrombotic regimens are widely used for secondary stroke prevention in patients with CS and PFO. Radiologic and echocardiographic features were strongly associated with treatment choice, whereas conventional vascular risk factors were not. Prior observational studies are likely to be biased by confounding by indication.
[Show abstract][Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: Aim:
Autologous pericardium annuloplasty (APA) is an alternative to prosthetic ring implantation for mitral valve (MV) repair, avoiding the use of foreign material and preserving the mitral annulus' physiological motion. However, data on durability are questionable. Therefore, we analyzed long-term outcomes of treating degenerative mitral regurgitation (MR) with APA.
Four hundred ninety patients (mean age, 54.3±11.3 years, [15-77 years]; N.=360 men [74.1%]) who had undergone APA and neochordae implantation between July 1988 and December 2006 were retrospectively studied.
MR was purely degenerative in 434 (89.3%) patients; endocarditis was present in 44 (9.1%) patients; an anterior, posterior, or bileaflet prolapse was present in 32 (6.6%), 241 (49.6%), and 213 (43.8%) patients, respectively. Clinical follow-up was 100% complete at a median of 6.5 years (5th percentile, 0.9; 95th percentile, 14.9) with an echocardiographic study in 92% of patients. In-hospital mortality was 1% (5 deaths); overall and late cardiac mortality were 7.6% and 3.9% (37 and 19 deaths), respectively. Kaplan-Meier curves for overall survival, late cardiac survival, and freedom from reoperation at 15 years (20 cases) were 86% (95%CI 80-91), 93% (95%CI 88-96), and 93% (95%CI 88-96), respectively. At 15 years, freedom from recurrent MR (28 patients) and endocarditis (6 events) were 86% (95%CI 76-91) and 97% (95%CI 92-99). Dehiscence, significant calcification of APA, and hemolysis never occurred. At reoperations, annular pericardium appeared covered by a smooth layer of tissue.
APA is feasible, safe, and cost-effective, providing long-term durability, high survival, and a low rate of valve-related complications.
The Journal of cardiovascular surgery 09/2014; 55(6). · 1.46 Impact Factor
[Show abstract][Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: Background
Ageing populations may demand more blood transfusions, but the blood supply could be limited by difficulties in attracting and retaining a decreasing pool of younger donors. One approach to increase blood supply is to collect blood more frequently from existing donors. If more donations could be safely collected in this manner at marginal cost, then it would be of considerable benefit to blood services. National Health Service (NHS) Blood and Transplant in England currently allows men to donate up to every 12 weeks and women to donate up to every 16 weeks. In contrast, some other European countries allow donations as frequently as every 8 weeks for men and every 10 weeks for women. The primary aim of the INTERVAL trial is to determine whether donation intervals can be safely and acceptably decreased to optimise blood supply whilst maintaining the health of donors.
INTERVAL is a randomised trial of whole blood donors enrolled from all 25 static centres of NHS Blood and Transplant. Recruitment of about 50,000 male and female donors started in June 2012 and was completed in June 2014. Men have been randomly assigned to standard 12-week versus 10-week versus 8-week inter-donation intervals, while women have been assigned to standard 16-week versus 14-week versus 12-week inter-donation intervals. Sex-specific comparisons will be made by intention-to-treat analysis of outcomes assessed after two years of intervention. The primary outcome is the number of blood donations made. A key secondary outcome is donor quality of life, assessed using the Short Form Health Survey. Additional secondary endpoints include the number of 'deferrals' due to low haemoglobin (and other factors), iron status, cognitive function, physical activity, and donor attitudes. A comprehensive health economic analysis will be undertaken.
The INTERVAL trial should yield novel information about the effect of inter-donation intervals on blood supply, acceptability, and donors' physical and mental well-being. The study will generate scientific evidence to help formulate blood collection policies in England and elsewhere.
[Show abstract][Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND:
High blood pressure, blood glucose, serum cholesterol, and BMI are risk factors for cardiovascular diseases and some of these factors also increase the risk of chronic kidney disease and diabetes. We estimated mortality from cardiovascular diseases, chronic kidney disease, and diabetes that was attributable to these four cardiometabolic risk factors for all countries and regions from 1980 to 2010.
We used data for exposure to risk factors by country, age group, and sex from pooled analyses of population-based health surveys. We obtained relative risks for the effects of risk factors on cause-specific mortality from meta-analyses of large prospective studies. We calculated the population attributable fractions for each risk factor alone, and for the combination of all risk factors, accounting for multicausality and for mediation of the effects of BMI by the other three risks. We calculated attributable deaths by multiplying the cause-specific population attributable fractions by the number of disease-specific deaths. We obtained cause-specific mortality from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors 2010 Study. We propagated the uncertainties of all the inputs to the final estimates.
In 2010, high blood pressure was the leading risk factor for deaths due to cardiovascular diseases, chronic kidney disease, and diabetes in every region, causing more than 40% of worldwide deaths from these diseases; high BMI and glucose were each responsible for about 15% of deaths, and high cholesterol for more than 10%. After accounting for multicausality, 63% (10·8 million deaths, 95% CI 10·1-11·5) of deaths from these diseases in 2010 were attributable to the combined effect of these four metabolic risk factors, compared with 67% (7·1 million deaths, 6·6-7·6) in 1980. The mortality burden of high BMI and glucose nearly doubled from 1980 to 2010. At the country level, age-standardised death rates from these diseases attributable to the combined effects of these four risk factors surpassed 925 deaths per 100 000 for men in Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Mongolia, but were less than 130 deaths per 100 000 for women and less than 200 for men in some high-income countries including Australia, Canada, France, Japan, the Netherlands, Singapore, South Korea, and Spain.
The salient features of the cardiometabolic disease and risk factor epidemic at the beginning of the 21st century are high blood pressure and an increasing effect of obesity and diabetes. The mortality burden of cardiometabolic risk factors has shifted from high-income to low-income and middle-income countries. Lowering cardiometabolic risks through dietary, behavioural, and pharmacological interventions should be a part of the global response to non-communicable diseases.
[Show abstract][Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: Objective:
To examine predictors of stroke recurrence in patients with a high vs a low likelihood of having an incidental patent foramen ovale (PFO) as defined by the Risk of Paradoxical Embolism (RoPE) score.
Patients in the RoPE database with cryptogenic stroke (CS) and PFO were classified as having a probable PFO-related stroke (RoPE score of >6, n = 647) and others (RoPE score of ≤6 points, n = 677). We tested 15 clinical, 5 radiologic, and 3 echocardiographic variables for associations with stroke recurrence using Cox survival models with component database as a stratification factor. An interaction with RoPE score was checked for the variables that were significant.
Follow-up was available for 92%, 79%, and 57% at 1, 2, and 3 years. Overall, a higher recurrence risk was associated with an index TIA. For all other predictors, effects were significantly different in the 2 RoPE score categories. For the low RoPE score group, but not the high RoPE score group, older age and antiplatelet (vs warfarin) treatment predicted recurrence. Conversely, echocardiographic features (septal hypermobility and a small shunt) and a prior (clinical) stroke/TIA were significant predictors in the high but not low RoPE score group.
Predictors of recurrence differ when PFO relatedness is classified by the RoPE score, suggesting that patients with CS and PFO form a heterogeneous group with different stroke mechanisms. Echocardiographic features were only associated with recurrence in the high RoPE score group.
[Show abstract][Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: The value of measuring levels of glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) for the prediction of first cardiovascular events is uncertain.
To determine whether adding information on HbA1c values to conventional cardiovascular risk factors is associated with improvement in prediction of cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk.
Analysis of individual-participant data available from 73 prospective studies involving 294,998 participants without a known history of diabetes mellitus or CVD at the baseline assessment.
Measures of risk discrimination for CVD outcomes (eg, C-index) and reclassification (eg, net reclassification improvement) of participants across predicted 10-year risk categories of low (<5%), intermediate (5% to <7.5%), and high (≥7.5%) risk.
During a median follow-up of 9.9 (interquartile range, 7.6-13.2) years, 20,840 incident fatal and nonfatal CVD outcomes (13,237 coronary heart disease and 7603 stroke outcomes) were recorded. In analyses adjusted for several conventional cardiovascular risk factors, there was an approximately J-shaped association between HbA1c values and CVD risk. The association between HbA1c values and CVD risk changed only slightly after adjustment for total cholesterol and triglyceride concentrations or estimated glomerular filtration rate, but this association attenuated somewhat after adjustment for concentrations of high-density lipoprotein cholesterol and C-reactive protein. The C-index for a CVD risk prediction model containing conventional cardiovascular risk factors alone was 0.7434 (95% CI, 0.7350 to 0.7517). The addition of information on HbA1c was associated with a C-index change of 0.0018 (0.0003 to 0.0033) and a net reclassification improvement of 0.42 (-0.63 to 1.48) for the categories of predicted 10-year CVD risk. The improvement provided by HbA1c assessment in prediction of CVD risk was equal to or better than estimated improvements for measurement of fasting, random, or postload plasma glucose levels.
In a study of individuals without known CVD or diabetes, additional assessment of HbA1c values in the context of CVD risk assessment provided little incremental benefit for prediction of CVD risk.
JAMA The Journal of the American Medical Association 03/2014; 311(12):1225-33. DOI:10.1001/jama.2014.1873 · 35.29 Impact Factor