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ABSTRACT: We document producer price adjustment using a low-inflation micro price dataset. On average 24% of prices adjust each month, with an average increase/decrease of 6%. Producer prices adjust more frequently than consumer prices, but their size of adjustment is typically smaller. Sectoral heterogeneity in the frequency of price adjustment is strongly related to heterogeneity in the cost structure. Fluctuations in aggregate producer price inflation occur to a large extent through variation in the relative share of upward and downward price adjustment. Copyright © The editors of the "Scandinavian Journal of Economics" 2008 .
Scandinavian Journal of Economics 02/2008; 110(3):489-518. · 0.51 Impact Factor
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ABSTRACT: This paper analyzes the relationship between banks’ divergent strategies toward specialization and diversification of financial activities and their ability to withstand a banking sector crash. We first generate market-based measures of banks’ systemic risk exposures using extreme value analysis. Systemic banking risk is measured as the tail beta, which equals the probability of a sharp decline in a bank’s stock price conditional on a crash in a banking index. Subsequently, the impact of (the correlation between) interest income and the components of non-interest income on this risk measure is assessed. The heterogeneity in extreme bank risk is attributed to differences in the scope of non-traditional banking activities: non-interest generating activities increase banks’ tail beta. In addition, smaller banks and better-capitalized banks are better able to withstand extremely adverse conditions. These relationships are stronger during turbulent times compared to normal economic conditions. Overall, diversifying financial activities under one umbrella institution does not improve banking system stability, which may explain why financial conglomerates trade at a discount.
European Central Bank, Working Paper Series. 01/2007;
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ABSTRACT: This paper analyzes the relationship between banks’ divergent strategies toward specialization and diversification of financial activities and their ability to withstand a banking sector crash. We first generate market-based measures of banks’ systemic risk exposures using extreme value analysis. Systemic banking risk is measured as the tail beta, which equals the probability of a sharp decline in a bank’s stock price conditional on a crash in a banking index. Subsequently, the impact of (the correlation between) interest income and the components of non-interest income on this risk measure is assessed. The heterogeneity in extreme bank risk is attributed to differences in the scope of non-traditional banking activities: non-interest generating activities increase banks’ tail beta. In addition, smaller banks and better-capitalized banks are better able to withstand extremely adverse conditions. These relationships are stronger during turbulent times compared to normal economic conditions. Overall, diversifying financial activities under one umbrella institution does not improve banking system stability, which may explain why financial conglomerates trade at a discount.
National Bank of Belgium, Research series. 01/2006;
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ABSTRACT: We present a new approach to study empirically the effect of the introduction of the euro on currency invoicing. Our approach uses a compositional multinomial logit model, in which currency choice depends on the characteristics of both the currency and the country. We use unique quarterly panel data of Norwegian imports from OECD countries for the 1996-2006 period. One of the key findings is that the eurozone countries in trade with Norway have substantially increased their share of home currency invoicing after the introduction of the euro. In addition, the euro as a vehicle currency has overtaken the role of the US dollar in Norwegian imports. The econometric analysis shows a significant effect of euro introduction above and beyond the determinants of currency invoicing (i.e., inflation rate, inflation volatility, foreign exchange market size, and product composition). However, the rise in producer currency invoicing by eurozone countries is primarily caused by a drop in inflation volatility.
National Bank of Belgium, Research series. 01/2006;
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ABSTRACT: This paper analyzes the relationship between banks’ divergent strategies toward specialization and diversification of financial activities and their ability to withstand a banking sector crash. We first generate market-based measures of banks’ systemic risk exposures using extreme value analysis. Systemic banking risk is measured as the tail beta, which equals the probability of a sharp decline in a bank’s stock price conditional on a crash in a banking index. Subsequently, the impact of (the correlation between) interest income and the components of non-interest income on this risk measure is assessed. The heterogeneity in extreme bank risk is attributed to differences in the scope of non-traditional banking activities: non-interest generating activities increase banks’ tail beta. In addition, smaller banks and better-capitalized banks are better able to withstand extremely adverse conditions. These relationships are stronger during turbulent times compared to normal economic conditions. Overall, diversifying financial activities under one umbrella institution does not improve banking system stability, which may explain why financial conglomerates trade at a discount.
National Bank of Belgium, Research series. 01/2005;
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ABSTRACT: This article investigates the role of government debt in the degree of excess sensitivity of private consumption to current disposable income. Because this type of excess sensitivity is generally attributed to liquidity constraints, this amounts to a test of the impact of government debt on the amount of credit extended to individuals. Controlling for financial liberalization we find that, for a panel of OECD countries in the 1990s, a high government debt leads to more excess sensitivity. This result supports the idea that a high government debt induces lenders to tighten credit conditions. Our findings survive several robustness checks. (JEL E21, E62, C33) Copyright 2004, Oxford University Press.
Economic Inquiry 02/2004; 42(4):618-633. · 0.98 Impact Factor
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Maarten. Dossche
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ABSTRACT: I summarize recent progress made in the literature on inflation dynamics. This has been a very productive area of research due to the development of the so-called New Keynesian model and the availability of new macroeconomic and microeconomic evidence. Nevertheless, a number of problems still subsist. In particular the importance of temporary price markdowns to inflation dynamics and the characteristics of the information set price-setters use for their price adjustment decision currently constitute unresolved issues.
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ABSTRACT: This paper documents producer price setting in 6 countries of the euro area: Germany, France,
Italy, Spain, Belgium and Portugal. It collects evidence from available studies on each of those
countries and also provides new evidence. These studies use monthly producer price data. The
following five stylised facts emerge consistently across countries. First, producer prices change
infrequently: each month around 21% of prices change. Second, there is substantial cross-sector
heterogeneity in the frequency of price changes: prices change very often in the energy sector, less
often in food and intermediate goods and least often in non-durable non- food and durable goods.
Third, countries have a similar ranking of industries in terms of frequency of price changes. Fourth,
there is no evidence of downward nominal rigidity: price changes are for about 45% decreases and
55% increases. Fifth, price changes are sizeable compared to the inflation rate. The paper also
examines the factors driving producer price changes. It finds that costs structure, competition,
seasonality, inflation and attractive pricing all play a role in driving producer price changes. In
addition producer prices tend to be more flexible than consumer prices.
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ABSTRACT: Time series estimates of inflation persistence incur an upward bias if shifts in the inflation target of the central bank remain unaccounted for. Using a structural time series approach we measure different sorts of inflation persistence allowing for an unobserved timevarying inflation target.
Unobserved components are identified using Kalman filtering and smoothing techniques. Posterior densities of the model parameters and the unobserved components are obtained in a Bayesian framework based on importance sampling. We find that inflation persistence, expressed by the halflife of a shock, can range from 1 quarter in case of a costpush shock to several years for a shock to
longrun inflation expectations or the output gap.
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[show abstract]
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ABSTRACT: This paper documents producer price setting in 6 countries of the euro area: Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Belgium and Portugal. It collects evidence from available studies on each of those countries and also provides new evidence. These studies use monthly producer price data. The following five stylised facts emerge consistently across countries. First, producer prices change infrequently: each month around 21% of prices change. Second, there is substantial cross-sector heterogeneity in the frequency of price changes: prices change very often in the energy sector, less often in food and intermediate goods and least often in non-durable non- food and durable goods. Third, countries have a similar ranking of industries in terms of frequency of price changes. Fourth, there is no evidence of downward nominal rigidity: price changes are for about 45% decreases and 55% increases. Fifth, price changes are sizeable compared to the inflation rate. The paper also examines the factors driving producer price changes. It finds that costs structure, competition, seasonality, inflation and attractive pricing all play a role in driving producer price changes. In addition producer prices tend to be more flexible than consumer prices.
Documentos de trabajo del Banco de España, ISSN 0213-2710, Nº 3, 2007, pags. 9-53.
