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ABSTRACT: The paper aims to contribute to the debate on specialization and growth in two forms. Firstly, it develops a North-South model in which the ratio between the income elasticity of exports and imports in the South (that gives the rate of growth compatible with external equilibrium) depends on the Keynesian and Schumpeterian efficiency of the pattern of specialization, as defined by Dosi et al (1990). The model draws on key insights of the technology gap literature to discuss how these efficiencies are related to the dynamics of technological learning. Secondly, the model is tested including the variables Keynesian and Schumpeterian efficiency in a Keynesian growth regression. Several estimation procedures are used to test the model, among which Finite Mixture Estimation, which allows for estimating the parameters for homogenous groups of countries.
Universidade Federal do Paran�, Department of Economics, Working Papers. 01/2010;
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ABSTRACT: This paper develops the Ricardian multigoods model in several directions with a view to studying the relationship between the technology gap, the pattern of specialization and the institutional framework that organizes technological learning and wage bargaining. The interaction between the technology gap and relative real wages endogenously defines the pattern of specialization, which is related to economic growth through the condition of equilibrium in current account (external constraint). Copyright © 2009 The Authors. Journal compilation © 2009 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.
Metroeconomica 01/2010; 61(1):219-238. · 0.18 Impact Factor
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ABSTRACT: This paper discusses why Latin America failed to achieve sustainable convergence with the developed world since 1960 and analyses different phases of convergence and divergence using a structuralist-Keynesian approach. First, it is argued that there are critical differences between Latin America, the developed economies and the Asian economies as regards the evolution of the income elasticity of the demand for imports (π), the rate of growth of exports and the balance-of-payments-constrained rate of growth. The income elasticity of the demand for imports in Latin America showed an upward trend, particularly after the mid-1970s, which was not matched by a similar increase in exports--a pattern in sharp contrast with that of the East Asian countries. The evolution of π and exports are used to set forth a typology of Latin American economic growth since 1960. In addition, the paper relates elasticities and the less favourable Latin American performance to the intensity and direction of structural change. Using a broad sample of developed and developing economies, it is shown that the developing countries that succeed in reducing the income gap are those that transformed their economic structures in favour of sectors with higher Schumpeterian and Keynesian efficiency. Copyright The Author 2009. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Cambridge Political Economy Society. All rights reserved., Oxford University Press.
Cambridge Journal of Economics 01/2010; 34(2):389-411. · 1.45 Impact Factor
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ABSTRACT: Export structure and economic growth: an empirical analysis, 1985-2003 - The paper discusses the idea that the quality of exports matters for economic growth. The influence of the structure of exports on the rates of economic growth is discussed within the context of a growth model with external constraints. To test the relationship between exports and growth, exports are divided in two groups: a) dynamic from a Schumpeterian perspective (high-tech sectors) and b) dynamic from a Keynesian perspective (international demand grows at higher rates than the average). The key hypothesis is that countries whose total exports have higher shares of sectors with Keynesian and Schumpeterian efficiency will grow faster. The empirical results are consistent with this hypothesis. In addition, the results suggest that Schumpeterian efficiency tends to have a stronger impact on growth than Keynesian efficiency.
Revista Economia e Sociedade. 01/2010; 40(8):23-23.
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ABSTRACT: This paper discusses some of the structuralist ideas about international coordination and growth in an international system formed by countries whose productive structures and technological capabilities are strongly asymmetric. These ideas are formalized taking as a point of departure the Keynesian Balance-of-Payments constrained growth model with two countries. To this model is added a function (based on the catching up literature) in which the income elasticity of the demand for exports and imports depends on the technology gap. The model allows for discussing the inter-relations between the fiscal and the industrial and technological policies. It also allows for finding the rate of growth of autonomous expenditure in the periphery which ensures that it will use all the foreign exchange it earns in promoting economic growth (the principle of “automatic reciprocity”).
Universidade Federal do Paraná, Department of Economics, Working Papers. 01/2009;
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ABSTRACT: This paper aims at building bridges between evolutionary microeconomics and the structuralist theory of economic development, trying to combine both approaches in a systematic way. It is suggested that reducing the technology gap requires persistent supply side efforts for adapting and improving the use of capital equipment and the sequential development of various forms of tacit and incremental learning, associated with the transfer and acquisition of foreign technology. In addition, the expansion of employment along with labour productivity is related to the diversification of the economy, the expansion of high-tech activities and exports and the consequent dynamism of domestic and international demand. The paper argues that technological and industrial policies should take into consideration both dimensions of the development process.
Economics of Innovation and New Technology 01/2009; 18(7):675-694.
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ABSTRACT: Schumepterian growth theory stresses the role of structural change in long run growth. Countries which increase the share of technology-intensive sectors in their economic structures benefit more from technological learning and innovation. In addition, they are more able to respond to changes in the international markets and to enter in sectors whose demand grows at higher rates. The paper compares Brazil and the CIBS from the point of view of the direction and intensity of structural change. It is suggested that structural change has been relatively weak in Brazil and that this is associated with a less dynamic growth performance since the 1980s.
02/2008;
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02/2007;
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ABSTRACT: Countries differ in terms of technological capabilities and complexity of production structures. According to that, countries may follow different development strategies: one based on extracting rents from abundant endowments, such as labor or natural resources, and the other focused on creating rents through intangibles, basically innovation and knowledge accumulation. The present article studies international convergence and divergence, linking structural change with trade and growth through a North South Ricardian model. The analysis focuses on the asymmetries between Latin America and mature and catching up economies. Empirical evidence supports that a shift in the composition of the production structure in favor of R&D intensive sectors allows achieving higher rates of growth in the long term and increases the capacity to respond to demand changes. A virtuous export-led growth requires laggard countries to reduce the technological gap with respect to more advanced ones. Hence, abundance of factor endowments requires to be matched with technological capabilities development for countries to converge in the long term.
06/2006;
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ABSTRACT: The paper presents a North-South trade model that discusses how changes in the technology gap affect specialization and growth in the Southern economy. The contribution of the paper is to propose a new specification for the influence of the technology gap on the pattern of specialization. It also analyzes the implications of the dynamics of the technology gap for the process of international convergence and divergence, within the context of a Ricardian trade model with a continuum of goods. Subsequently, the predictions of the model are tested through a panel analysis of the determinants of economic growth in the nineties. With this objective, new proxies recently proposed by the literature for the technological variable (the Schumpeterian dimension of the model) and for the dynamism of the pattern of specialization (the Keynesian dimension) were included in the empirical work.
Nova Economia 01/2006; 16(3):483-506.
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ABSTRACT: RESUMO O trabalho discute algumas idéias estruturalistas sobre a importância da coordenação num sistema formado por países cujas estruturas produtivas e capacidades tecnológicas são fortemente assimétricas. Essas idéias são formalizadas a partir do modelo keynesiano de crescimento com restrição externa com dois países. Nele é incluída uma nova função (derivada da literatura sobre catching up tecnológico) definindo o comportamento das elasticidades renda de exportação e importação com base no aprendizado tecnológico. O modelo permite discutir algumas inter-relações entre a política fiscal e as políticas industrial e tecnológica. Também permite encontrar a taxa em que deveria crescer o gasto autônomo da periferia para manter o princípio de reciprocidade implícita, segundo o qual a periferia utiliza todas as divisas de suas exportações na compra dos insumos necessários para sustentar taxas mais elevadas de crescimento em equilíbrio. Palavras-chave: macroeconomia estruturalista, crescimento econômico, inovação e difusão tecnológicas 2009 1 Professor do Departamento de Economia da Universidade Federal do Paraná (UFPR) e Pesquisador do CNPq. Endereço Eletrônico: porcile@ufpr.br 2 Mestre em Desenvolvimento Econômico pela Universidade Federal do Paraná (UFPR). Endereço Eletrônico: guilherme.ricardo@ymail.com 3 Divisão de Desenvolvimento Produtivo e Empresarial, CEPAL – Nações Unidas e professor da Universidade de Veneza (mario.cimoli@cepal.org). * O artigo representa as idéias dos autores, mas não necessariamente a opinião das instituições em que trabalham.
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ABSTRACT: This paper discusses the conditions that lead to convergence or divergence in the international economy in the context of a model with a continuum of goods which presents Keynesian and Schumpeterian features. The model assumes that there are two countries, the North (which is the technological leader) and the South (which is the follower) whose rates of growth are related by technology flows and the Balance-of-Payments constraint. The ability of the South to diversify its economy depends on its efforts for catching-up with Northern technology. These efforts redefine technology-based competitive advantages and allow the South to expand the number of goods it produces. In doing so, the South is able to grow at higher rates than the North while keeping current account equilibrium. Thus, convergence results from technological learning and structural change enlarging the Southern productive structure. The results of the model are tested by regressing rates of economic growth on proxies for technological capabilities and for the complexity of the export structure. The empirical analysis is based on a panel of 60 countries and confirms that both technological efforts the pattern of specialization are key conditions for international convergence.
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ABSTRACT: This paper revisits the structuralist ideas on trade and growth and suggests (based on the Prebisch's principle of implicit reciprocity) that policies for promoting structural change in the periphery may lead to higher global growth and a better income distribution across countries. The paper discusses the inter-relations and complementarities that exist between autonomous expenditure and industrial and technology policies in the long run. With this objective, we develop a structuralist growth model in which the technology gap and the growth rate of the domestic autonomous expenditure are endogenously determined in a two-country (centre and periphery) international economy. Copyright The Author 2010. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Cambridge Political Economy Society. All rights reserved., Oxford University Press.
Cambridge Journal of Economics 35(2):383-400. · 1.45 Impact Factor
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Revista Economia e Sociedade. 43(12):30-30.
