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ABSTRACT: This paper presents a small macro-econometric model of Kazakhstan to study the impact of various economic policies. It uses a new approach to test the existence of a level relationship between a dependent variable and a set of regressors, when the characteristics of the regressors’ non-stationarity are not known with certainty. The simulations provide insights into the role of a tight monetary policy, higher foreign direct investment, and rises in nominal wages and in crude oil prices. The results obtained are in line with economic observations and give some support to the policies chosen as priority targets by the Kazakh authorities for the forthcoming years.
INTL: Descriptive Studies in Emerging Markets (Topic). 12/2010;
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ABSTRACT: This paper analyses the monetary consequences of the Latin American trade integration process. We consider a sample of five countries - Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Mexico and Uruguay - spanning the period 1991-2007. The main question raised pertains to the feasibility of a Monetary Union between L.A. economies. To this end, we study whether this set of countries is characterized by business cycle synchronization with the occurrence of common shocks, a strong similarity in the adjustment process and the convergence of policy responses. We focus especially our attention on two points. First, we try to determine to what extent international disturbances influence the domestic business cycles through trade and/or financial channels. Second, we analyze the impact of the adoption of different exchange rate regimes on the countries' responses to shocks. All these features are the main issues in the literature relative to regional integration and OCA process.
Journal of Policy Modeling 01/2009; 31(1):102-118. · 0.64 Impact Factor
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ABSTRACT: When the automobile was developed near the beginning of the last century, it was the relatively new fuel gasoline, not the familiar ethanol that became the fuel of choice. We examine the intersections of the early development of the automobile and the petroleum industry and consider the state of the agriculture sector during the same period. Through this process, we find a series of influences, such as relative prices and alternative markets, that help to explain how in the early years of automobile development, gasoline won out over the equally likely technical alternative ethanol. We also examine the industrial relations in the automobile industry that seem to have influenced the later adoption of leaded gasoline, rather than ethanol, as a solution to the problem of engine knock.
HAL, Post-Print. 01/2009;
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ABSTRACT: This paper analyses the monetary consequences of the Latin-American trade integration process. We consider a sample of five countries –Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Mexico and Uruguay- spanning the period 1991-2007. The main question raised pertains to the feasibility of a monetary union between L.A. economies. To this end, we study whether this set of countries is characterized by business cycle synchronization with the occurrence of common shocks, a strong similarity in the adjustment process and the convergence of policy responses. We focus especially our attention on two points. First, we try to determine to what extent international disturbances influence the domestic business cycles through trade and/or financial channels. Second, we analyze the impact of the adoption of different exchange rate regimes on the countries’ responses to shocks. All these features are the main issues in the literature relative to regional integration and OCA process.
02/2008;
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ABSTRACT: This paper assesses the monetary consequences of the Latin-American integration process. Over the period 1991-2007, we analyze a sample of five Latin-American countries focusing on the feasibility of a monetary union between L.A. economies. To this end, we study the issue of business cycle synchronization with the occurrence of common shocks. First, we assess the international disturbances influence on the domestic business cycles. Second, we analyze the impact of the adoption of different exchange rate regimes on the countries responses to shocks.
Panoeconomicus 01/2008; 55(3):279-308. · 0.40 Impact Factor
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ABSTRACT: We propose a measure of the probability of crises associated with an aggregate indicator, where the percentage of false alarms and the proportion of missed signals can be combined to give an appreciation of the vulnerability of an economy. In this perspective, the important issue is not only to determine whether a system produces true predictions of a crisis, but also whether there are forewarning signs of a forthcoming crisis prior to its actual occurrence. To this end, we adopt the approach initiated by Kaminsky, Lizondo and Reinhart (1998), analyzing each indicator and calculating each threshold separately. We depart from this approach in that each country is also analyzed separately, permitting the creation of a more “custom-made” early warning system for each one.
05/2007;
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ABSTRACT: This paper studies to what extent the diversity of exchange rate regimes within Mercosur exerts an influence on the feasibility of a monetary union in this area. A semi-structural VAR model is built for each country, including a set of international and domestic variables. Based on impulse response functions and forecast error decomposition, we conclude that differences of exchange rate regime explain significantly the divergences of economic dynamics triggered by foreign or domestic shocks. Second, we decompose the structural innovations generated by each country model into unobservable common and idiosyncratic components, using a state-space model. This last exercise, intended to assess the degree of policy coordination between the Mercosur members, did not disclose any common component for the structural innovations generated by the three national models.
02/2007;
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ABSTRACT: This paper studies the feasibility of a monetary union in Mercosur. A semi-structural VAR model is estimated for each country, including a set of international and domestic variables. The structural innovations generated by each country model are broken down into unobservable common and idiosyncratic components, using an unobservable components model. This paper exhibits significant evidences inconsistent with a monetary integration. The experiments with the VAR models do not show any convergence of economic policies of the Member States. The unobservable components model confirms as the asymmetry of exogenous shocks than the low level of policy synchronicity. Finally, the idiosyncratic responses to the external financial shocks suggest that the differences of exchange rate regimes do not ease convergence and coordination. JEL codes: C32, E32, F42.
Revue de l'OFCE. 01/2007; 101(2):355-392.
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ABSTRACT: Monetary integration in Mercosur processed in a context of strong macroeconomic volatility. This paper analyzes the feasibility of a monetary union within this zone. Instead of taking in account all the criteria of the optimal currencies areas, this study focuses on the macroeconomic cycles in Argentina, Brazil, and Uruguay. First, we analyse cross-correlation to identify the degree of cycle synchronization. Second, a structural VAR model is built for each country. It allows us to determine the sources of shocks which hit these countries. Third, we decompose structural innovations -especially economic policies shocks- of domestic SVAR into unobservable common and idiosyncratic components using a state-space model. We assess in what extent economic policies are coordinated between the Mercosur countries.
10/2006;
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02/2004;
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ABSTRACT: This paper presents a small macroeconomic model of Kazakhstan to study the impact of various economic policies. The simulations provide insight into the role of a tight monetary policy, higher foreign direct investment, rises in nominal wages and in crude oil prices. The results obtained are in line with the economic observations and give some support to the policies chosen as priority targets by the Kazakh authorities for the forthcoming years.
02/2004;
