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ABSTRACT: Limitations imposed on species ranges by the climatic, ecological, and physiological effects of elevation are important determinants of extinction risk. We modeled the effects of elevational limits on the extinction risk of landbirds, 87% of all bird species. Elevational limitation of range size explained 97% of the variation in the probability of being in a World Conservation Union category of extinction risk. Our model that combined elevational ranges, four Millennium Assessment habitat-loss scenarios, and an intermediate estimate of surface warming of 2.8 degrees C, projected a best guess of 400-550 landbird extinctions, and that approximately 2150 additional species would be at risk of extinction by 2100. For Western Hemisphere landbirds, intermediate extinction estimates based on climate-induced changes in actual distributions ranged from 1.3% (1.1 degrees C warming) to 30.0% (6.4 degrees C warming) of these species. Worldwide, every degree of warming projected a nonlinear increase in bird extinctions of about 100-500 species. Only 21% of the species predicted to become extinct in our scenarios are currently considered threatened with extinction. Different habitat-loss and surface-warming scenarios predicted substantially different futures for landbird species. To improve the precision of climate-induced extinction estimates, there is an urgent need for high-resolution measurements of shifts in the elevational ranges of species. Given the accelerating influence of climate change on species distributions and conservation, using elevational limits in a tested, standardized, and robust manner can improve conservation assessments of terrestrial species and will help identify species that are most vulnerable to global climate change. Our climate-induced extinction estimates are broadly similar to those of bird species at risk from other factors, but these estimates largely involve different sets of species.
Conservation Biology 03/2008; 22(1):140-50. · 4.69 Impact Factor
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ABSTRACT: 1. The causes of lagged population and geographical range expansions after species introductions are poorly understood, and there are relatively few detailed case studies. 2. We document the 29-year history of population dynamics and structure for a population of Euphydryas gillettii Barnes that was introduced to the Colorado Rocky Mountains, USA in 1977. 3. The population size remained low (< 200 individuals) and confined to a single habitat patch (approximately 2.25 ha) to 1998. These values are similar to those of many other populations within the natural geographical range of the species. 4. However, by 2002 the population increased dramatically to > 3000 individuals and covered approximately 70 ha, nearly all to the south of the original site. The direction of population expansion was the same as that of predominant winds. 5. By 2004, the butterfly's local distribution had retracted mainly to three habitat patches. It thus exhibited a 'surge/contraction' form of population growth. Searches within 15 km of the original site yielded no other new populations. 6. In 2005, butterfly numbers crashed, but all three habitat patches remained occupied. The populations within each patch did not decrease in the same proportions, suggesting independent dynamics that are characteristic of metapopulations. 7. We postulate that this behaviour results, in this species, in establishment of satellite populations and, given appropriate habitat structure, may result in lagged or punctuated expansions of introduced populations.
Journal of Animal Ecology 03/2006; 75(2):466-75. · 4.94 Impact Factor
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ABSTRACT: We present a global conservation analysis for an entire "flagship" taxon, land mammals. A combination of rarity, anthropogenic impacts, and political endemism has put about a quarter of terrestrial mammal species, and a larger fraction of their populations, at risk of extinction. A new global database and complementarity analysis for selecting priority areas for conservation shows that approximately 11% of Earth's land surface should be managed for conservation to preserve at least 10% of terrestrial mammal geographic ranges. Different approaches, from protection (or establishment) of reserves to countryside biogeographic enhancement of human-dominated landscapes, will be required to approach this minimal goal.
Science 08/2005; 309(5734):603-7. · 31.20 Impact Factor
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ABSTRACT: Studies of fragmented landscapes, especially in the tropics, have traditionally focused on the native fragments themselves, ignoring species distributions in surrounding agricultural or other human-dominated areas. We sampled moth species richness within a 227-ha forest fragment and in four surrounding agricultural habitats (coffee, shade coffee, pasture, and mixed farms) in southern Costa Rica. We found no significant difference in moth species richness or abundance among agricultural habitats, but agricultural sites within 1 km of the forest fragment had significantly higher richness and abundance than sites farther than 3.5 km from the fragment. In addition, species composition differed significantly between distance classes ( but not among agricultural habitats), with near sites more similar to forest than far sites. These results suggest that (1) different agricultural production regimes in this region may offer similar habitat elements and thus may not differ substantially in their capacities to support native moth populations and (2) that the majority of moths may utilize both native and agricultural habitats and move frequently between them, forming “halos” of relatively high species richness and abundance around forest fragments. Correlations between species richness and the amount of nearby forest cover, measured over circles of various radii around the sites, suggest that halos extend approximately 1.0–1.4 km from the forest edge. The extent of these halos likely differs among taxa and may influence their ability to survive in fragmented landscapes.Resumen: Los estudios de paisajes fragmentados, especialmente en los trópicos, tradicionalmente se han enfocado en los fragmentos nativos per se, ignorando las distribuciones de especies en áreas agrícolas circundantes o en otras áreas dominadas por humanos. Muestreamos la riqueza de polillas dentro de un fragmento de bosque de 227 hectáreas y en cuatro hábitats agrícolas (café, café con sombra, pastizal y campos mixtos) en el Sur de Costa Rica. Encontramos que no hubo diferencias significativas en la riqueza de especies o en la abundancia de polillas entre los hábitats agrícolas, sin embargo, los sitios agrícolas cercanos (<1 km) al fragmento de bosque tuvieron una riqueza de especies y abundancia significativamente mayor que las de los sitios lejanos (>3.5 km) al fragmento. Además, la composición de especies fue significativamente diferente entre las clases de distancia ( pero no entre los hábitats agrícolas), siendo los sitios cercanos más similares al bosque que los sitios retirados. Estos resultados sugieren que (1) los diferentes regímenes de producción agrícola en esta región pueden ofrecer elementos de hábitat similares y por lo tanto pueden no diferir substancialmente en lo que se refiere a su capacidad para sostener poblaciones de polillas nativas y (2) que la mayoría de las polillas pueden utilizar tanto hábitatsnativos como agrícolas y mover frecuentemente entre ellos, formando “halos” con una riqueza de especies y una abundancia relativamente altas alrededor de los fragmentos del bosque. Las correlaciones entre la riqueza de especies y la cantidad de cobertura forestal circundante, medida en círculos de diferente radio alrededor de los sitios de estudio, sugiere que los halos se extienden aproximadamente 1.0–1.4 km del borde del bosque. La extension de estos halos posiblemente difiere entre taxones y puede influenciar sus habilidades para sobrevivir en paisajes fragmentados.
Conservation Biology 04/2001; 15(2):378 - 388. · 4.69 Impact Factor
