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ABSTRACT: This paper analyzes the determinants of Spain’s macroeconomic fluctuations since the inception of the euro in 1999, with a
special attention to observed growth and inflation differentials with respect to the rest of the European Monetary Union (EMU).
For that purpose we estimate the Banco de España DSGE model of the Spanish economy and the rest of the Eurosystem (BEMOD).
We find that observed differentials are the result of a combination of asymmetric country-specific shocks (in particular,
demand and productivity shocks for growth and cost-push shocks for inflation) as well as asymmetric economic structure (especially
lower nominal wage and price rigidities in Spain). Finally, we find that EMU membership has had a non-negligible effect on
observed differentials.
KeywordsDSGE model-Monetary union-Growth and inflation differentials-Bayesian inference
JEL ClassificationC11-C51-E17
Journal of the Spanish Economic Association 04/2012; 1(1):67-95. · 0.29 Impact Factor
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ABSTRACT: We examine the role of money in three environments: the New Keynesian model with separable utility and static money demand; a nonseparable utility variant with habit formation; and a version with adjustment costs for holding real balances. The last two variants imply forward-looking behavior of real money balances, with forecasts of future interest rates entering current portfolio decisions. We conduct a structural econometric analysis of the U.S. and euro area economies. FIML estimates confirm the forward-looking character of money demand. A consequence is that real money balances are valuable in anticipating future variations in the natural interest rate.
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control 02/2009; 33(3):758-776. · 0.86 Impact Factor
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ABSTRACT: This article examines the role of money in a small-scale dynamic general equilibrium model of the euro zone estimated by maximum likelihood. The model allows for both intertemporal and intratemporal non-separability in preferences. We find, first, that real balances do not affect the marginal utility of consumption. Second, money demand shocks mainly help to forecast real balances while real shocks explain the bulk of price, output and interest rates fluctuations. Third, the calculation of the natural rate of interest reveals that the evolution of the interest rate is mostly accounted for by the real sources of fluctuations. Copyright 2006 Royal Economic Society.
Economic Journal. 02/2006; 116(511):457-477.
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ABSTRACT: A major criticism of standard specifications of price adjustment in models for monetary policy analysis is that they violate the natural rate hypothesis by allowing output to differ from potential in steady state. In this paper we estimate a dynamic optimizing business cycle model whose price-setting behavior satisfies the natural rate hypothesis. The priceadjustment specifications we consider are the sticky-information specification of Mankiw and Reis (2002) and the indexed contracts of Christiano, Eichenbaum, and Evans (2005). Our empirical estimates of the real side of the economy are similar whichever price adjustment specification is chosen. Consequently, the alternative model specifications deliver similar estimates of the U.S. output gap series, but the empirical behavior of the gap series differs substantially from standard gap estimates.
09/2005;
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ABSTRACT: A major criticism of standard specifications of price adjustment in models for monetary policy analysis is that they violate the natural rate hypothesis by allowing output to differ from potential in steady state. In this paper we estimate a dynamic optimizing business cycle model whose price-setting behavior satisfies the natural rate hypothesis. The price-adjustment specifications we consider are the sticky-information specification of Mankiw and Reis (Sticky information versus sticky prices: a proposal to replace the new Keynesian Phillips curve. Quarterly Journal of Economics 117, 1295–1328) and the indexed contracts of Christiano et al. (Nominal rigidities and the dynamic effects of a shock to monetary policy. Journal of Political Economy 113, 1–45). Our empirical estimates of the real side of the economy are similar whichever price adjustment specification is chosen. Consequently, the alternative model specifications deliver similar estimates of the U.S. output gap series, but the empirical behavior of the gap series differs substantially from standard gap estimates.
Journal of Monetary Economics. 02/2005;
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ABSTRACT: We compare the transmission mechanism of exogenous and endogenous monetary policies in a calibrated small open economy model with nominal and real rigidities. Under an exogenous monetary policy rule it takes implausible values of the intertemporal elasticity of substitution and the price adjustment costs to generate the liquidity and overshooting effects. Endogenous rules with strong feedback to inflation and output help to reproduce the response of the nominal interest and exchange rates to unanticipated monetary policy shocks that characterize the transmission mechanism of standard sticky price models. The liquidty and overshooting effects are always obtained when the model is augmented with a Taylor interest rate rule.
Spanish Economic Review 09/2004; 6(3):159-178. · 0.50 Impact Factor
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ABSTRACT: In this paper, we present a dynamic optimizing model that allows explicitly for imperfect substitutability between di erent financial assets. This is specified in a manner which captures Tobin's (1969) view that an expansion of one asset's supply a ects both the yield on that asset and the spread or "risk premium" between returns on that asset and alternative assets. Our estimates of this model on U.S. data confirm that some of the observed deviations of long-term rates from the expectations theory of the term structure can be traced to movements in the relative stocks of financial assets. The richer aggregate demand and asset specifications imply that there exists an additional channel of monetary policy. Our results suggest that central bank operations exercise a modest influence on the relative prices of alternative financial securities, and so exert an extra e ect on long-term yields and aggregate demand separate from their e ect on the expected path of short-term rates.
06/2004;
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ABSTRACT: In this Paper, we look at the role of money in a general framework that encompasses three competing environments: the New Keynesian model with separable utility and static money demand; the non-separable utility variant with habit formation; and the New Keynesian model modified to allow for adjustment costs for holding real balances. The last two models imply a forward-looking character of real money balances that convey on money an important role as a monetary policy indicator. We distinguish between these alternative views by conducting a structural econometric analysis for the US, the euro area, and the UK. The FIML estimates confirm the forward-looking character of the money demand. Using these estimates we find that, in response to preferences and technology shocks, money incorporates useful information regarding future variations in the natural interest rate.
04/2004;
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ABSTRACT: In this Paper, we present a dynamic optimizing model that allows explicitly for imperfect substitutability between different financial assets. This is specified in a manner that captures Tobin’s (1969) view that an expansion of one asset’s supply affects both the yield on that asset and the spread or ‘risk premium’ between returns on that asset and alternative assets. Our estimates of this model on US data confirm that some of the observed deviations of long-term rates from the expectations theory of the term structure can be traced to movements in the relative stocks of financial assets. The richer aggregate demand and asset specifications imply that there exists an additional channel of monetary policy. Our results suggest that central bank operations exercise a modest influence on the relative prices of alternative financial securities, and so exert an extra effect on long-term yields and aggregate demand separate from their effect on the expected path of short-term rates.
04/2004;
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ABSTRACT: This article examines the relationship between financial liberalization and stock market volatility in Indonesia. By looking at the time series properties of the Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) we identify breaks in stock market volatility which coincide with the timing of major policy events. Our main findings are (i) a significant decrease in volatility after the 'official' opening of the stock market to foreign participation; (ii) a significant increase in volatility in the year before market opening following reforms that eased entry requirements and the issuance of brokerage licenses and (iii) a significant increase in volatility at the time of the Asian crisis followed by a significant decrease in the second and sixth years after the crisis.
European Journal of Political Economy 01/2004; 20(4):941-961. · 1.44 Impact Factor
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ABSTRACT: As the Spanish economy gets more integrated in international markets, the real exchange rate becomes a key determinant of the monetary transmission. In this paper we trace out the dynamic response of prices, output and the exchange rate following a monetary policy shock. We estimate a structural VAR model whose identification scheme is based on the long run properties common to a large class of models. The results suggest that a small model with efficient asset markets plus nominal inertia and long run monetary neutrality, captures the essential features of the monetary transmission mechanism in Spain. The interest rate shock is well identified and the exchange rate overshoots its long run value. There are no signs of liquidity puzzle nor of price puzzle or exchange rate puzzle either.
Spanish Economic Review 04/1999; 1(1):55-77. · 0.50 Impact Factor
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ABSTRACT: The main contribution of this paper is to jointly estimate the effects of financial development and inflation on growth. We aim to exploit both the cross-section and the time-series dimension of the data on inflation, growth and some banking and stock market indicators over the period 1961-1993 for a sample of OECD countries. Overall, the results indicate, first, that the long-run costs of inflation are not explained by policies of financial repression, and second, that if inflation affects growth through its interaction with financial market conditions, this is not the only (nor the most important) channel.
02/1999;
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ABSTRACT: The liquidity effect, defined as a decrease in nominal interest rates in response to a monetary expansion, is a major stylized fact of the business cycle. This paper seeks to understand under what conditions such an effect can be explained in a general equilibrium model with sticky prices and capital adjustment costs.
02/1999;
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ABSTRACT: In this paper we construct a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model for a small open economy allowing for perfect capital mobility. The model incorporates price rigidities in monopolistically competitive goods and labor markets and real rigidities in the form of capital adjustment costs. The model matches some nominal and real business cycle features observed in European economies and produces a significant output response to monetary policy shocks.
02/1999;
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ABSTRACT: This paper jointly estimates the effects of financial development and inflation on growth using both cross-section and time-series dimensions of the data on inflation, growth, and some banking and stock market indicators over the period 1961–1993 for a sample of OECD countries. Overall, the results indicate, first, that the long-run costs of inflation are not explained by policies of financial repression and, second, that if inflation affects growth through its interaction with financial market conditions, this is not the only (nor the most important) channel.
European Journal of Political Economy. 02/1999;
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Boletín económico - Banco de España, ISSN 0210-3737, Nº. 2 (FEB), 2000, pags. 69-75.
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Boletín económico - Banco de España, ISSN 0210-3737, Nº. 3 (MAR), 2001, pags. 37-42.
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Boletín económico - Banco de España, ISSN 0210-3737, Nº. 12 (DIC), 2002, pags. 45-52.
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ABSTRACT: According to the Balassa-Samuelson effect, growth and inflation are positively correlated in economies with pegged currencies. This paper shows that the costs of inflation on long-term growth are underestimated in samples that include countries and periods with fixed exchange rate regimes.
Economics Letters.
