Reichert TA, Simonsen L, Sharma A, et al. Influenza and the winter increase in mortality in the United States, 1959-1999

Entropy Research Institute, 262 West Saddle River Road, Upper Saddle River, NJ 07458, USA.
American Journal of Epidemiology (Impact Factor: 5.23). 10/2004; 160(5):492-502. DOI: 10.1093/aje/kwh227
Source: PubMed


In economically developed countries, mortality increases distinctly during winter. Many causes have been suggested, including light-dark cycles, temperature/weather, and infectious agents. The authors analyzed monthly mortality in the United States during the period 1959-1999 for four major disease classes. The authors isolated the seasonal component of mortality by removing trends and standardizing the time series. They evaluated four properties: coincidence in mortality peaks, autocorrelation structure and autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models, magnitude, and age distribution. Peak months of mortality for ischemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, and diabetes mellitus coincided appropriately with peaks in pneumonia and influenza, and coefficients of autocorrelation and ARIMA models were essentially indistinguishable. The magnitude of the seasonal component was highly correlated with traditional measures of excess mortality and was significantly larger in seasons dominated by influenza A(H2N2) and A(H3N2) viruses than in seasons dominated by A(H1N1) or B viruses. There was an age shift in mortality during and after the 1968/69 pandemic in each disease class, with features specific to influenza A(H3N2). These findings suggest that the cause of the winter increase in US mortality is singular and probably influenza. Weather and other factors may determine the timing and modulate the magnitude of the winter-season increase in mortality, but the primary determinant appears to be the influenza virus.

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    • "Research on the environmental effects of respiratory infection transmission has found a connection between the temperature and air humidity and the transmission of certain types of viruses. Routine surveillance of Influenza Like Illness (ILI) has also shown increased incidence during colder months [23], [24]. A recent study also found that vasoconstriction of the upper respiratory system due to chilling of the feet in cold water may encourage the onset of common cold symptoms [25]. "
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    PLoS ONE 07/2014; 9(7):e101440. DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0101440 · 3.23 Impact Factor
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    • "To our knowledge none of the previous research assessing influenza morbidity originates from very cold climates, such as this study. However, the association between temperature and humidity and the occurrence of influenza has been demonstrated in epidemiological studies examining onset [4-8] and outcomes, such as mortality [3,7,9,29]. "
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    Environmental Health 03/2014; 13(1):22. DOI:10.1186/1476-069X-13-22 · 3.37 Impact Factor
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    • "However, the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) time series method utilizes autocorrelation and can produce an estimation model with information on HIV cases identified yearly or monthly. ARIMA is used for the estimation of influenza mortality [3], malaria incidence [4], and other infectious diseases [5–7]. "
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    12/2013; 4(6):358-62. DOI:10.1016/j.phrp.2013.10.009
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