Tobacco industry price-subsidizing promotions may overcome the downward pressure of higher prices on initiation of regular smoking
ABSTRACT Real cigarette prices in the US increased from the early 1980s to early 1990s. Holding all else equal, adolescent initiation of regular smoking should have declined during this period. Using national population-based surveys (n = 336 343) conducted in the 1990s, we present trends (early 1960s to mid-1990s) in the initiation of regular smoking among 14-17-year-old adolescents and 18-21-year-old young adults. We also present trends in consumer-price-index-adjusted cigarette price and tobacco-industry expenditures for price-subsidizing promotions. We relate price and price-subsidizing tobacco industry expenditures to trends in initiation in the two age groups, using autoregressive integrated moving average models (ARIMA). From the model results, we conclude that price-subsidizing promotions may provide the tobacco industry with an effective way to segment the market. That is, they effectively offer lower prices to population subgroups that are more price-sensitive (e.g. young smokers not yet addicted), countering the depressing effect of general price increases on smoking. Thus, we find that the relationship of cigarette price to smoking behavior is more complex than previously described.
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- "Other advertising and promotional expenditures are treated as two categories (Pierce et al., 2005). Traditional advertising expenditures include costs for magazine, newspaper, billboard, transit, and point of sale ads. "
ABSTRACT: During the past several decades, smoking prevalence among youth has fluctuated in puzzling and unexpected ways. To help understand these changes, this study tests seven explanations: (a) compositional changes, (b) sample selection, (c) adult smoking, (d) social strain, (e) cigarette prices, (f) tobacco advertising, and (g) other drug use. Figures on smoking prevalence come from the Monitoring the Future (MTF) Surveys from 1976-2002, whereas figures on aggregate determinants for the same time period come from government publications. Graphs of the time-series trends to determine temporal correspondence and time-series regression models to test for statistical influence reveal two variables that have expected effects. Increases in cigarette prices reduce smoking, particularly in the most recent years, and higher marijuana initiation (or use) is associated with greater smoking during most of the time period. However, much of the change in youth smoking, particularly the most recent rise and fall, remains unexplained.Youth & Society 02/2008; 39(4):453-479. DOI:10.1177/0044118X07308070 · 1.82 Impact Factor
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ABSTRACT: Point of Purchase (PoP) promotional and advertising activities are a sophisticated tobacco marketing strategy. This study describes tobacco PoP activities in school neighbourhoods and compares PoP activities in retail stores between schools with high and low smoking prevalence. A cross-sectional study was conducted in 81 randomly selected schools across five provinces. Students in grades 10-11 completed a questionnaire on smoking. Observations were made in all retail stores located within a one-kilometre radius around the school. ANOVA tests were used to detect differences on PoP variables between high (> 20.6%) and low (< or = 20.6%) smoking prevalence schools, defined as percentage of students reporting at least a few puffs on > 2 days in the last 30 days. Approximately half of retail stores in each school neighbourhood exhibited tobacco PoP activities. Average school smoking prevalence was 20.99%. There were significant main effects on PoP variables between schools with high and low smoking prevalence, Wilk's lambda = 0.81, F (6,74) = 2.89, p < 0.01, eta2 = 0.19. Stores near schools with high smoking prevalence had significantly lower prices per cigarette (F (1,79) = 15.34, p < 0.01, eta2 = 0.16), more in-store promotions (F (1,79) = 6.73, p < 0.01, eta2 = 0.08), and fewer government-sponsored health warnings (F (1,79) = 6.26, p < 0.01, eta2 = 0.07) compared to schools with low smoking prevalence. Higher levels of PoP activities in stores located in the school neighbourhood are related to school smoking prevalence. Schools with low smoking prevalence had more stores that posted government health warning signs and higher cigarette prices. Legislation regulating PoP activities and health warnings in school neighbourhoods should be considered.Canadian journal of public health. Revue canadienne de santé publique 07/2007; 98(4):265-70. · 1.02 Impact Factor
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ABSTRACT: Promotional offers on cigarettes (e.g., dollar-off, multipack discounts) composed the largest share of tobacco industry marketing expenditures, totaling $8.9 billion, or 72% of the total budget in 2002. Internal industry documents indicate that young adults, potential quitters, and other price-sensitive groups are the targets of these marketing tactics. How effective they are in actually reaching these groups in the general population of smokers has not yet been investigated. Data were from 4618 current smokers responding to the large, random-digit-dialed population-based 2002 California Tobacco Survey. The characteristics were identified of smokers who reported that they used these offers "every time I see one." Thirty-five percent of smokers used promotional offers every time they saw one. Multivariate analyses identified young adults, women, African Americans, those with higher daily cigarette consumption, and those worried about cigarette costs as more likely to use promotional offers at every opportunity. Smokers most committed to quitting were no more likely to use promotional offers than those with no intention to quit. Cigarette brand was highly correlated with age and race/ethnicity, and therefore was not included in the multivariate analysis. Those who smoked menthol cigarettes and Camels, more often young adults and African Americans, were much more likely than those of other brands to use promotional offers. With the exception of smokers intending to quit, cigarette promotional offers are effectively reaching most industry-targeted groups. Importantly, young adults, who have the greatest long-term customer potential, are responding.American Journal of Preventive Medicine 04/2006; 30(3):225-31. DOI:10.1016/j.amepre.2005.11.001 · 4.53 Impact Factor