Spatial and temporal patterns of pig herds diagnosed with Postweaning Multisystemic Wasting Syndrome (PMWS) during the first two years of its occurrence in Denmark.
ABSTRACT The clinical syndrome Postweaning Multisystemic Wasting Syndrome (PMWS) in pigs has emerged globally during the last decade. In October 2001, the first pig herd diagnosed with PMWS was reported in Denmark, and since then the number of herds diagnosed with PMWS has increased markedly. The etiology of PMWS is not well understood, but increased knowledge of the causal factors is prerequisite for applying preventive interventions. In this study we described the temporal (time of diagnosis), spatial (location of herds) and spatio-temporal pattern of Danish pig herds diagnosed with PMWS during the first two years after the first herd was diagnosed, and we tested for spatial and spatio-temporal clustering using scan statistics. The study population consisted of pig herds that during the study period (October 2001-September 2003) performed diagnostic submissions to the two major veterinary diagnostic laboratories in Denmark (6724 herds). Of these, 277 herds were diagnosed with PMWS. Two statistically significant spatial clusters of herds diagnosed with PMWS were identified. These clusters included 11% and 8% of the study herds, respectively. Within these two clusters the relative risk for a herd to be diagnosed with PMWS was twice as high as expected. One statistically significant spatio-temporal cluster was identified between February and May 2002. We discuss different hypotheses that could explain why pig herds diagnosed with PMWS were clustered both spatially and spatio-temporally, and conclude that the results support the hypothesis that PMWS is caused by introduction of a new, unidentified, pathogen into the Danish pig production.
Article: Spread of porcine circovirus associated disease (PCVAD) in Ontario (Canada) swine herds: Part I. Exploratory spatial analysis.[show abstract] [hide abstract]
ABSTRACT: The systemic form of porcine circovirus associated disease (PCVAD), also known as postweaning multisystemic wasting syndrome (PMWS) was initially detected in the early 1990s. Starting in 2004, the Canadian swine industry experienced considerable losses due to PCVAD, concurrent with a shift in genotype of porcine circovirus type 2 (PCV2). Objectives of the current study were to explore spatial characteristics of self-reported PCVAD distribution in Ontario between 2004 and 2008, and to investigate the existence and nature of local spread. The study included 278 swine herds from a large disease-monitoring project that included porcine reproductive and respiratory syndrome (PRRS) virus-positive herds identified by the diagnostic laboratory, and PRRS virus-negative herds directly from the target population. Herds were included if they had growing pigs present on-site and available geographical coordinates for the sampling site. Furthermore, herds were defined as PCVAD-positive if a producer reported an outbreak of circovirus associated disease, or as PCVAD-negative if no outbreak was noted. Spatial trend was investigated using generalized additive models and time to PCVAD outbreak in a herd using Cox's proportional hazard model; spatial and spatio-temporal clustering was explored using K-functions; and location of most likely spatial and spatio-temporal clusters was investigated using scan statistics. Over the study period, the risk of reporting a PCVAD-positive herd tended to be higher in the eastern part of the province after adjustment for herd PRRS status (P = 0.05). This was partly confirmed for spread (Partial P < 0.01). Local spread also appeared to exist, as suggested by the tentative (P = 0.06) existence of spatio-temporal clustering of PCVAD and detection of a spatio-temporal cluster (P = 0.04). In Ontario, PCVAD has shown a general trend, spreading from east-to-west. We interpret the existence of spatio-temporal clustering as evidence of spatio-temporal aggregation of PCVAD-positive cases above expectations and, together with the existence of spatio-temporal and spatial clusters, as suggestive of apparent local spread of PCVAD. Clustering was detected at small spatial and temporal scales. Other patterns of spread could not be detected; however, survival rates in discrete Ontario zones, as well as a lack of a clear spatial pattern in the most likely spatio-temporal clusters, suggest other between-herd transmission mechanisms.BMC Veterinary Research 01/2010; 6:59. · 2.00 Impact Factor