The Epidemiologic Transition: A Theory of the Epidemiology of Population Change

Milbank Quarterly (Impact Factor: 3.38). 02/2005; 83(4):731-57. DOI: 10.1111/j.1468-0009.2005.00398.x
Source: PubMed
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    • "Mortality trends in high-income countries between 1900 and 1950 showed a clear age-pattern shift: mortality at young ages and from infectious conditions was rapidly receding while mortality at older ages and from chronic conditions began to dominate (Omran, 1971; Preston, 1976). By the 1960s major medical improvements in cardiovascular survival led to an increasing prevalence of heart disease at older ages. "
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    ABSTRACT: The success of the current biomedical paradigm based on a “disease model” may be limited in the future due to large number of comorbidities inflicting older people. In recent years, there has been growing empirical evidence based on animal models suggesting that the aging process could be delayed and that this process may lead to increases in life expectancy accompanied by improvements in health at older ages. In this chapter we explore past, present and future prospects of healthy life expectancy and examine whether increases in average length of life associated with delayed aging link with additional years lived disability-free at older ages. Trends in healthy life expectancy suggest improvements among older people in the U.S., although younger cohorts appear to be reaching old age with increasing levels of frailty and disability. Trends in health risk factors such as obesity and smoking show worrisome signs of negative impacts on adult health and mortality in the near future. However, results based on a simulation model of delayed aging in humans indicate that it has the potential to increase not only the length of life but also the fraction and number of years spent disability-free at older ages. Delayed aging would likely come with additional aggregate costs. These costs could be offset if delayed aging is widely applied and people are willing to convert their greater healthiness into more years of work.
    The Longevity Dividend, Edited by J.S. Olshanky, G.M. Martin, L. Kirkland, 11/2015; Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory Press.
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    • "Perhaps the most influential account of this relationship between disease and modernity was Abdel Omran's notion of epidemiological transition. In Omran's terms, so-called 'developed countries' had undergone an epidemiological transition and entered the 'Age of Degenerative and Man-Made Diseases', which was not only characterised by chronic diseases but also by: low fertility, high life expectancy and ageing populations; economies articulated around technology and mass consumption; as well as rationality, nuclear families and high living standards (Omran, 1971, p.516–517). In contrast, 'undeveloped' societies, he posited, had yet to complete this transition and were still in the 'Age of Pestilence and Famine' defined not only by infectious diseases and malnutrition but also by: high fertility, high mortality and young populations; economies mixing subsistence farming with early industrialisation; as well as traditional values, extended families and poor, unsanitary living conditions (ibid.). "
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    ABSTRACT: In this paper, we explore the emergence of non-communicable diseases (NCDs) as an object of political concern in and for countries of the global South. While epidemiologists and public health practitioners and scholars have long expressed concern with the changing global distribution of the burden of NCDs, it is only in more recent years that the aetiology, politics and consequences of these shifts have become an object of critical social scientific enquiry. These shifts mark the starting point for this special issue on 'The Politics of NCDs in the Global South' and act as the basis for new, critical interventions in how we understand NCDs. In this paper, we aim not only to introduce and contextualise the six contributions that form this special issue, but also to identify and explore three themes – problematisation, care and culture – that index the main areas of analytical and empirical concern that have motivated analyses of NCDs in the global South and are central to critical engagement with their political contours.
    Health & Place 09/2015; DOI:10.1016/j.healthplace.2015.09.001 · 2.81 Impact Factor
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    • "One is a demographical change with higher life expectancy and reduced fertility rates. The other is an epidemiological transition where the patterns of disease shift away from infectious and nutrient deficiency diseases towards higher rates of coronary heart disease, certain types of cancer, a higher prevalence of obesity (particularly childhood obesity), and non-insulin-dependent diabetes (Drewnowski and Popkin, 1997; Omran, 1971; Popkin, 2003). Popkin (1993) uses ''nutrition transition'' to term these changes and further divides it into five steps, namely: collecting food, famine, receding famine, degenerative diseases and behavioral change. "
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    ABSTRACT: In company with rapid economic growth, Chinese consumers have seen a remarkable nutrition improvement and a dramatic dietary change. This article investigates the driving forces behind these changes with use of the China Health and Nutrition Survey (CHNS) data. This paper first proposes 10 different indices to measure nutrition improvement and dietary change from different perspectives, and then adopts semiparametric panel data models to capture the complicated nonlinear relationship between these nutrition indices and income growth, while controlling for other variables parametrically. This enables us to directly predict the nutrition improvement and dietary change at different income levels from different aspects. This paper particularly finds that nutrition improvement and dietary change will continue in China but will slow down in the future with further income growth.
    Food Policy 05/2015; 53. DOI:10.1016/j.foodpol.2015.04.006 · 1.80 Impact Factor
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