Influenza A viruses periodically cause worldwide epidemics, or pandemics, with high rates of illness and death. A pandemic can occur at any time, with the potential to cause serious illness, death and social and economic disruption throughout the world. Historic evidence suggests that pandemics occurred three to four times per century. In the last century there were three influenza pandemics. The circumstances still exist for a new influenza virus with pandemic potential to emerge and spread. The unpredictability of the timing of the next pandemic is underlined by the occurrence of several large outbreaks of highly pathogenic avian influenza since the early 1980s. In 1999, the World Health Organization published the Influenza pandemic plan. The role of WHO and guidelines for national and regional planning. And in 2005, WHO revised the global influenza preparedness plan for new national measures before and during pandemics. This document outlines briefly the Korean Centers for Disease Control's plan for responding to an influenza pandemic. According to the new pandemic phases of WHO, we set up the 4 national levels of preparedness and made guidelines for preventing and control the epidemics in each phase. And also we described the future plans to antiviral stockpiles and pandemic vaccine development.
[Show abstract][Hide abstract] ABSTRACT: The pandemic of novel influenza A (H1N1) virus has required decision-makers to act in the face of the substantial uncertainties. In this study, we evaluated the potential impact of the pandemic response strategies in the Republic of Korea using a mathematical model.
We developed a deterministic model of a pandemic (H1N1) 2009 in a structured population using the demographic data from the Korean population and the epidemiological feature of the pandemic (H1N1) 2009. To estimate the parameter values for the deterministic model, we used the available data from the previous studies on pandemic influenza. The pandemic response strategies of the Republic of Korea for novel influenza A (H1N1) virus such as school closure, mass vaccination (70% of population in 30 days), and a policy for anti-viral drug (treatment or prophylaxis) were applied to the deterministic model.
The effect of two-week school closure on the attack rate was low regardless of the timing of the intervention. The earlier vaccination showed the effect of greater delays in reaching the peak of outbreaks. When it was no vaccination, vaccination at initiation of outbreak, vaccination 90 days after the initiation of outbreak and vaccination at the epidemic peak point, the total number of clinical cases for 400 days were 20.8 million, 4.4 million, 4.7 million and 12.6 million, respectively. The pandemic response strategies of the Republic of Korea delayed the peak of outbreaks (about 40 days) and decreased the number of cumulative clinical cases (8 million).
Rapid vaccination was the most important factor to control the spread of pandemic influenza, and the response strategies of the Republic of Korea were shown to delay the spread of pandemic influenza in this deterministic model.
Journal of Preventive Medicine and Public Health 03/2010; 43(2):109-16. DOI:10.3961/jpmph.2010.43.2.109
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