The global impact of scaling up HIV/AIDS prevention programs in low- and middle-income countries.

Futures Group/Constella, Glastonbury, CT 06033, USA.
Science (Impact Factor: 31.48). 04/2006; 311(5766):1474-6. DOI: 10.1126/science.1121176
Source: PubMed

ABSTRACT A strong, global commitment to expanded prevention programs targeted at sexual transmission and transmission among injecting drug users, started now, could avert 28 million new HIV infections between 2005 and 2015. This figure is more than half of the new infections that might otherwise occur during that period in 125 low- and middle-income countries. Although preventing these new infections would require investing about U.S.$122 billion over this period, it would reduce future needs for treatment and care. Our analysis suggests that it will cost about U.S.$3900 to prevent each new infection, but that this will produce a savings of U.S.$4700 in forgone treatment and care costs. Thus, greater spending on prevention now would not only prevent more than half the new infections that would occur from 2005 to 2015 but would actually produce a net financial saving as future costs for treatment and care are averted.

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    ABSTRACT: Background Remarkable financial and political efforts have been focused on the reduction of child mortality during the past few decades. Timely measurements of levels and trends in under-5 mortality are important to assess progress towards the Millennium Development Goal 4 (MDG 4) target of reduction of child mortality by two thirds from 1990 to 2015, and to identify models of success. Methods We generated updated estimates of child mortality in early neonatal (age 0—6 days), late neonatal (7—28 days), postneonatal (29—364 days), childhood (1—4 years), and under-5 (0—4 years) age groups for 188 countries from 1970 to 2013, with more than 29 000 survey, census, vital registration, and sample registration datapoints. We used Gaussian process regression with adjustments for bias and non-sampling error to synthesise the data for under-5 mortality for each country, and a separate model to estimate mortality for more detailed age groups. We used explanatory mixed effects regression models to assess the association between under-5 mortality and income per person, maternal education, HIV child death rates, secular shifts, and other factors. To quantify the contribution of these different factors and birth numbers to the change in numbers of deaths in under-5 age groups from 1990 to 2013, we used Shapley decomposition. We used estimated rates of change between 2000 and 2013 to construct under-5 mortality rate scenarios out to 2030. Findings We estimated that 6·3 million (95% UI 6·0—6·6) children under-5 died in 2013, a 64% reduction from 17·6 million (17·1—18·1) in 1970. In 2013, child mortality rates ranged from 152·5 per 1000 livebirths (130·6—177·4) in Guinea-Bissau to 2·3 (1·8—2·9) per 1000 in Singapore. The annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2013 ranged from −6·8% to 0·1%. 99 of 188 countries, including 43 of 48 countries in sub-Saharan Africa, had faster decreases in child mortality during 2000—13 than during 1990—2000. In 2013, neonatal deaths accounted for 41·6% of under-5 deaths compared with 37·4% in 1990. Compared with 1990, in 2013, rising numbers of births, especially in sub-Saharan Africa, led to 1·4 million more child deaths, and rising income per person and maternal education led to 0·9 million and 2·2 million fewer deaths, respectively. Changes in secular trends led to 4·2 million fewer deaths. Unexplained factors accounted for only −1% of the change in child deaths. In 30 developing countries, decreases since 2000 have been faster than predicted attributable to income, education, and secular shift alone. Interpretation Only 27 developing countries are expected to achieve MDG 4. Decreases since 2000 in under-5 mortality rates are accelerating in many developing countries, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. The Millennium Declaration and increased development assistance for health might have been a factor in faster decreases in some developing countries. Without further accelerated progress, many countries in west and central Africa will still have high levels of under-5 mortality in 2030.
    The Lancet 05/2014; 384(9947):957-979. · 39.21 Impact Factor
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    ABSTRACT: According to global annual estimates hunger/malnutrition is the major cause of death (36 of 62 million). Cardiovascular diseases and cancer (5.44 of 13.43 million) are the major causes of death in developed countries, while lower respiratory tract infections, human immunodeficiency virus infection/acquired immunodeficiency syndrome, diarrhoeal disease, malaria and tuberculosis (10.88 of 27.12 million) are the major causes of death in developing countries with more than 70% of deaths occurring in children. The majority of approximately 800 million people with other rare diseases, including 100000 children born with thalassaemia annually receive no treatment. There are major ethical dilemmas in dealing with global health issues such as poverty and the treatment of orphan and rare diseases. Of approximately 50000 drugs about 10% are orphan drugs, with annual sales of the latter approaching 100 billion USD. In comparison, the annual revenue in 2009 from the top 12 pharmaceutical companies in Western countries was 445 billion USD and the top drug, atorvastatin, reached 100 billion USD. In the same year, the total government expenditure for health in the developing countries was 410 billion USD with only 6%-7% having been received as aid from developed countries. Drugs cost the National Health Service in the United Kingdom more than 20 billion USD or 10% of the annual health budget. Uncontrollable drug prices and marketing policies affect global health budgets, clinical practice, patient safety and survival. Fines of 5.3 billion USD were imposed on two pharmaceutical companies in the United States, the regulatory authority in France was replaced and clinicians were charged with bribery in order to overcome recent illegal practises affecting patient care. High expenditure for drug development is mainly related to marketing costs. However, only 2 million USD was spent developing the drug deferiprone (L1) for thalassaemia up to the stage of multicentre clinical trials. The criteria for drug development, price levels and use needs to be readdressed to improve drug safety and minimise costs. New global health policies based on cheaper drugs can help the treatment of many categories of orphan and rare diseases and millions of orphan patients in developing and developed countries.
    World journal of methodology. 09/2014; 4(3):163-88.
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    ABSTRACT: The study objective is to measure, analyse costs of scaling up HIV prevention for high-risk groups in India, in order to assist the design of future HIV prevention programmes in South Asia and beyond.
    PLoS ONE 09/2014; 9(9):e106582. · 3.53 Impact Factor

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