A Semi-Empirical Approach to Projecting Future Sea-Level Rise

Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 14473 Potsdam, Germany.
Science (Impact Factor: 33.61). 02/2007; 315(5810):368-70. DOI: 10.1126/science.1135456
Source: PubMed


A semi-empirical relation is presented that connects global sea-level rise to global mean surface temperature. It is proposed
that, for time scales relevant to anthropogenic warming, the rate of sea-level rise is roughly proportional to the magnitude
of warming above the temperatures of the pre–Industrial Age. This holds to good approximation for temperature and sea-level
changes during the 20th century, with a proportionality constant of 3.4 millimeters/year per °C. When applied to future warming
scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, this relationship results in a projected sea-level rise in 2100
of 0.5 to 1.4 meters above the 1990 level.

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    • "Sea-level rise will cause millions of people to be homeless (Dasgupta et al., 2010). Sea-level could rise 1 m by 2100 (Rahmstorf, 2007), and such a rise would affect coastal Bangladesh, with the Sundarbans mangrove forest 8 totally lost (Agrawala et al., 2003). "
    • "An intensification of 10% sea-level rise would increase the inundation zone from today's 19.5e27.5% of coastal Bangladesh (Dasgupta et al., 2010). Sea-level could rise 1 m by 2100 (Rahmstorf, 2007). A 1 m sea-level rise will affect the vast majority of coastal Bangladesh and the Sundarbans mangrove forest would be totally lost (Agrawala et al., 2003). "
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    ABSTRACT: In Bangladesh, tiger shrimp (Penaeus monodon) is commercially known as “white gold”, because of its export value. However, the production of “white gold” under shrimp alternate rice and shrimp-only farming systems in coastal Bangladesh has been accompanied by recent concerns over climate change. Field survey reveals that different climatic variables including coastal flooding, cyclone, sea-level rise, salinity, drought, rainfall, and sea surface temperature have had adverse effects on shrimp culture as well as socioeconomic conditions of farming households. There is also overwhelming evidence that changes in climatic variables has detrimental effects on the ecosystem of shrimp farms, and thus, severe effects on survival, growth, and production of shrimp. Considering extreme vulnerability to the effects of climate change on shrimp farming, we propose that community based adaptation strategies and integrated coastal zone management are needed to cope with the challenges.
    Ocean & Coastal Management 09/2015; 114:42-52. DOI:10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2015.06.008 · 1.75 Impact Factor
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    • "Base tsingy is of Jurassic limestone origin (Veress et al. 2008), and at the Tsingy de Bemaraha in west-central Madagascar, did not begin forming until around 1.8 MYA in the Pleistocene Epoch (Shea 2009), well after B. micra divergence in the Miocene Epoch 22.5 MYA (Glaw et al. 2012). However, sea levels were 25m-35m higher in the Pliocene 3 MYA than today (Rahmstorf 2007). Given the maximum altitude of B. micra in this study was 76m, available habitat was much smaller, although possibly more like mainland forest habitats before tsingy development. "
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    DESCRIPTION: First-ever habitat use, distribution report, and behavior of the micro leaf chameleon Brookesia micra. Working paper.
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