A Semi-Empirical Approach to Projecting Future Sea-Level Rise

Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, 14473 Potsdam, Germany.
Science (Impact Factor: 33.61). 02/2007; 315(5810):368-70. DOI: 10.1126/science.1135456
Source: PubMed


A semi-empirical relation is presented that connects global sea-level rise to global mean surface temperature. It is proposed
that, for time scales relevant to anthropogenic warming, the rate of sea-level rise is roughly proportional to the magnitude
of warming above the temperatures of the pre–Industrial Age. This holds to good approximation for temperature and sea-level
changes during the 20th century, with a proportionality constant of 3.4 millimeters/year per °C. When applied to future warming
scenarios of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, this relationship results in a projected sea-level rise in 2100
of 0.5 to 1.4 meters above the 1990 level.

28 Reads
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    • "Sea-level rise will cause millions of people to be homeless (Dasgupta et al., 2010). Sea-level could rise 1 m by 2100 (Rahmstorf, 2007), and such a rise would affect coastal Bangladesh, with the Sundarbans mangrove forest 8 totally lost (Agrawala et al., 2003). "
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    ABSTRACT: The practice of prawn (Macrobrachium rosenbergii) farming is widespread in coastal Bangladesh due to favorable biophysical resources. However, export-oriented prawn farming is particularly vulnerable to climate change in coastal Bangladesh. This study identified different climatic variables, including salinity, coastal flooding, cyclone, sea-level rise, water temperature, drought, and rainfall have profound effects on prawn farming in the Bagerhat area of southwest Bangladesh. Considering extreme vulnerability to the effects of climate change on prawn production, one of the adaptation strategies is to translocate prawn culture from coastal to inland (i.e., Bagerhat–Gopalganj) that appear less vulnerable to climate change. Although the prospects for prawn–carp polyculture and integrated prawn–fish–rice farming are positive in Gopalganj, a number of challenges were identified for the expansion of prawn culture. We suggest that institutional support would help to adopt prawn production.
    11/2015; 2:67-76. DOI:10.1016/j.aqrep.2015.08.001
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    • "As the physical approaches, a chain of numerical models was used to estimate past and project future changes in sea level for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Meanwhile, a bunch of statistical approaches have been used to determine sea level variability, such as the empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis (Church et al., 2004; 2011), the semi-empirical method (Rahmstorf, 2007), the spectral analysis method (Fenoglio-Marc, 2002), the regression method (Cheng et al., 2012; Dean and Houston, 2013), and the empirical mode decomposition (EMD) analysis (Ezer, 2013). "

    Acta Oceanologica Sinica -English Edition- 11/2015; 34(11):109-117. DOI:10.1007/s13131-015-0754-0 · 0.75 Impact Factor
    • "An intensification of 10% sea-level rise would increase the inundation zone from today's 19.5e27.5% of coastal Bangladesh (Dasgupta et al., 2010). Sea-level could rise 1 m by 2100 (Rahmstorf, 2007). A 1 m sea-level rise will affect the vast majority of coastal Bangladesh and the Sundarbans mangrove forest would be totally lost (Agrawala et al., 2003). "
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    ABSTRACT: In Bangladesh, tiger shrimp (Penaeus monodon) is commercially known as “white gold”, because of its export value. However, the production of “white gold” under shrimp alternate rice and shrimp-only farming systems in coastal Bangladesh has been accompanied by recent concerns over climate change. Field survey reveals that different climatic variables including coastal flooding, cyclone, sea-level rise, salinity, drought, rainfall, and sea surface temperature have had adverse effects on shrimp culture as well as socioeconomic conditions of farming households. There is also overwhelming evidence that changes in climatic variables has detrimental effects on the ecosystem of shrimp farms, and thus, severe effects on survival, growth, and production of shrimp. Considering extreme vulnerability to the effects of climate change on shrimp farming, we propose that community based adaptation strategies and integrated coastal zone management are needed to cope with the challenges.
    Ocean & Coastal Management 09/2015; 114:42-52. DOI:10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2015.06.008 · 1.75 Impact Factor
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