Variation in life expectancy during the twentieth century in the United States.
ABSTRACT The National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) reports life expectancy at birth (LE) for each year in the United States. Censal year estimates of LE use complete life tables. From 1900 through 1947, LEs for intercensal years were interpolated from decennial life tables and annual crude death rates. Since 1948, estimates have been computed from annual life tables. A substantial drop in variation in LE occurred in the 1940s. To evaluate these methods and examine variation without artifacts of different methods, we estimated a consistent series of both annual abridged life tables and LEs from official NCHS age-specific death rates and also LEs using the interpolation method for 1900-1998. Interpolated LEs are several times as variable as life table estimates, about 2 times as variable before 1940 and about 6.5 times as variable after 1950. Estimates of LE from annual life tables are better measures than those based on the mixed methods detailed in NCHS reports. Estimates from life tables show that the impact of the 1918 influenza pandemic on LE was much smaller than indicated by official statistics. We conclude that NCHS should report official estimates of intercensal LE for 1900-1948 computed from life tables in place of the existing LEs that were computed by interpolation.
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ABSTRACT: For decades, researchers have noted systematic shifts in cause-of-death patterns as mortality levels change. The notion of the "epidemiologic transition" has influenced thinking about the evolution of health in different societies and the response of the health system to these changes. This article re-examines the epidemiologic transition in terms of empirical regularities in the cause composition of mortality by age and sex since 1950, and considers whether the theory of epidemiologic transition presents a durable framework for understanding more recent patterns. Age-sex-specific mortality rates from three broad cause groups are analyzed: Group 1 (communicable diseases, maternal and perinatal causes, and nutritional deficiencies); Group 2 (noncommunicable diseases); and Group 3 (injuries), using the most extensive international database on mortality by cause, including 1,576 country-years of observation, and new statistical models for compositional data. The analyses relate changes in cause-of-death patterns to changing levels of all-cause mortality and income per capita. The results confirm that declines in overall mortality are accompanied by systematic changes in the composition of causes in many age groups. These changes are most pronounced among children, for whom Group 1 causes decline as overall mortality falls, and in younger adults, where strikingly different patterns are found for men (shift from Group 3 to Group 2) compared to women (shift toward Group 2 then Group 3). The underlying patterns that emerge from this analysis offer insights into the epidemiologic transition from high-mortality to low-mortality settings. Copyright 2002 by The Population Council, Inc..Population and Development Review 02/2002; 28(2):205-228. · 2.22 Impact Factor
- 01/1983; Wadsworth.
Article: United States life tables, 2000.[show abstract] [hide abstract]
ABSTRACT: This report presents period life tables for the United States based on age-specific death rates in 2000. Data used to prepare these life tables are 2000 final mortality statistics; July 1, 2000, population estimates based on the 1990 decennial census; and data from the Medicare program. Presented are complete life tables by age, race, and sex. In 2000 the overall expectation of life at birth was 76.9 years, representing an increase of 0.2 years from life expectancy in 1999. Between 1999 and 2000, life expectancy increased for both males and females and for both the white and black populations. Life expectancy increased by 0.4 years for black males (from 67.8 to 68.2) and by 0.2 years for white males (from 74.6 to 74.8). It increased by 0.2 years for black females (from 74.7 to 74.9) and by 0.1 year for white females (from 79.9 to 80.0).National vital statistics reports: from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Center for Health Statistics, National Vital Statistics System 01/2003; 51(3):1-38.