Assessing contemporary intensive care unit outcome: An updated Mortality Probability Admission Model (MPM0-III)
ABSTRACT To update the Mortality Probability Model at intensive care unit (ICU) admission (MPM0-II) using contemporary data.
Retrospective analysis of data from 124,855 patients admitted to 135 ICUs at 98 hospitals participating in Project IMPACT between 2001 and 2004. Independent variables considered were 15 MPM0-II variables, time before ICU admission, and code status. Univariate analysis and multivariate logistic regression were used to identify risk factors associated with hospital mortality.
One hundred thirty-five ICUs at 98 hospitals.
Patients in the Project IMPACT database eligible for MPM0-II scoring.
Hospital mortality rate in the current data set was 13.8% vs. 20.8% in the MPM0-II cohort. All MPM0-II variables remained associated with mortality. Clinical conditions with high relative risks in MPM0-II also had high relative risks in MPM0-III. Gastrointestinal bleeding is now associated with lower mortality risk. Two factors have been added to MPM0-III: "full code" resuscitation status at ICU admission, and "zero factor" (absence of all MPM0-II risk factors except age). Seven two-way interactions between MPM0-II variables and age were included and reflect the declining marginal contribution of acute and chronic medical conditions to mortality risk with increasing age. Lead time before ICU admission and pre-ICU location influenced individual outcomes but did not improve model discrimination or calibration. MPM0-III calibrates well by graphic comparison of actual vs. expected mortality, overall standardized mortality ratio (1.018; 95% confidence interval, 0.996-1.040) and a low Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit statistic (11.62; p = .31). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.823.
MPM0-II risk factors remain relevant in predicting ICU outcome, but the 1993 model significantly overpredicts mortality in contemporary practice. With the advantage of a much larger sample size and the addition of new variables and interaction effects, MPM0-III provides more accurate comparisons of actual vs. expected ICU outcomes.
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ABSTRACT: Scan statistics are concerned with clusters of events over time. In the realm of critical care medicine, such clusters might include the occurrence of ventilator-associated pneumonia (VAP). Given N patients over time, the number of observations in a "moving window" of fixed length can be counted and the maximum cluster value becomes a scan statistic for which both parametric and exact methods exist to calculate its rarity. A statistically unusual cluster may indicate a breakdown in quality. Another approach to monitoring rare events is a g-type statistical process control chart where prospectively observing unusually long periods of time between events can indicate a significant improvement in quality. Both methods are presented in detail and applied to a 24-bed medical/surgical ICU's experience with VAP during a 27-month period.10/2010; 1(4):579-593. DOI:10.1260/2040-22188.8.131.529
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ABSTRACT: Mechanical ventilation is a cornerstone in the management of critically ill patients worldwide; however, less is known about the clinical management of mechanically ventilated patients in low and middle income countries where limitation of resources including equipment, staff and access to medical information may play an important role in defining patient-centred outcomes. We present the design of a prospective, longitudinal study of mechanically ventilated patients in Peru that aims to describe a large cohort of mechanically ventilated patients and identify practices that, if modified, could result in improved patient-centred outcomes and lower costs. Five Peruvian intensive care units (ICUs) and the Medical ICU at the Johns Hopkins Hospital were selected for this study. Eligible patients were those who underwent at least 24 h of invasive mechanical ventilation within the first 48 h of admission into the ICU. Information on ventilator settings, clinical management and treatment were collected daily for up to 28 days or until the patient was discharged from the unit. Vital status was assessed at 90 days post enrolment. A subset of participants who survived until hospital discharge were asked to participate in an ancillary study to assess vital status, and physical and mental health at 6, 12, 24 and 60 months after hospitalisation, Primary outcomes include 90-day mortality, time on mechanical ventilation, hospital and ICU lengths of stay, and prevalence of acute respiratory distress syndrome. In subsequent analyses, we aim to identify interventions and standardised care strategies that can be tailored to resource-limited settings and that result in improved patient-centred outcomes and lower costs. We obtained ethics approval from each of the four participating hospitals in Lima, Peru, and at the Johns Hopkins School of Medicine, Baltimore, USA. Results will be disseminated as several separate publications in different international journals. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.BMJ Open 01/2015; 5(1):e005803. DOI:10.1136/bmjopen-2014-005803 · 2.06 Impact Factor
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ABSTRACT: The purpose of the study is to compare demographics, intensive care unit (ICU) admission characteristics, and ICU outcomes among adults with childhood-onset chronic conditions (COCCs) admitted to US pediatric and adult ICUs. Retrospective cross-sectional analyses of 6088 adults aged 19 to 40 years admitted in 2008 to 70 pediatric ICUs that participated in the Virtual Pediatric Intensive Care Unit Performance Systems and 50 adult ICUs that participated in Project IMPACT. Childhood-onset chronic conditions were present in 53% of young adults admitted to pediatric units, compared with 9% of those in adult units. The most common COCC in both groups were congenital cardiac abnormalities, cerebral palsy, and chromosomal abnormalities. Adults with COCC admitted to pediatric units were significantly more likely to be younger, have lower functional status, and be nontrauma patients than those in adult units. The median ICU length of stay was 2 days, and the intensive care unit mortality rate was 5% for all COCC patients with no statistical difference between pediatric or adult units. There are marked differences in characteristics between young adults with COCC admitted to pediatric ICUs and adult ICUs. Barriers to accommodating these young adults may be reasons why many such adults have not transitioned from pediatric to adult critical care. Copyright © 2014. Published by Elsevier Inc.Journal of Critical Care 10/2014; 30(1). DOI:10.1016/j.jcrc.2014.10.016 · 2.19 Impact Factor