Replacing the projected retiring baby boomer nursing cohort 2001 – 2026
ABSTRACT The nursing population in Australia is ageing. However, there is little information on the rate and timing of nursing retirement.
Specifically designed health workforce extracts from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) censuses from 1986 to 2001 are used to estimate the rate of nursing retirement. The 2001 nursing data are then "aged" and retirement of the nursing workforce projected through to 2026. ABS population projections are used to examine the future age structure of the population and the growth and age distribution of the pool of labour from which future nurses will be drawn.
Attrition rates for nurses aged 45 and over are projected to be significantly higher between the base year of 2006 and 2026, than they were between 1986 and 2001 (p < 0.001). Between 2006 and 2026 the growth in the labour force aged 20 to 64 is projected to slow from 7.5 per cent every five years to about 2 per cent, and over half of that growth will be in the 50 to 64 year age group. Over this period Australia is projected to lose almost 60 per cent of the current nursing workforce to retirement, an average of 14 per cent of the nursing workforce every five years and a total of about 90,000 nurses.
The next 20 years will see a large number of nursing vacancies due to retirement, with ageing already impacting on the structure of the nursing workforce. Retirement income policies are likely to be a key driver in the retirement rate of nurses, with some recent changes in Australia having some potential to slow retirement of nurses before the age of 60 years. However, if current trends continue, Australia can expect to have substantially fewer nurses than it needs in 2026.
SourceAvailable from: Paolo Tubertini[Show abstract] [Hide abstract]
ABSTRACT: Objectives Italian regional health authorities annually negotiate the number of residency grants to be financed by the National government and the number and mix of supplementary grants to be funded by the regional budget. This study provides regional decision-makers with a requirement model to forecast the future demand of specialists at the regional level. Methods We have developed a system dynamics (SD) model that projects the evolution of the supply of medical specialists and three demand scenarios across the planning horizon (2030). Demand scenarios account for different drivers: demography, service utilization rates (ambulatory care and hospital discharges) and hospital beds. Based on the SD outputs (occupational and training gaps), a mixed integer programming (MIP) model computes potentially effective assignments of medical specialization grants for each year of the projection. Results To simulate the allocation of grants, we have compared how regional and national grants can be managed in order to reduce future gaps with respect to current training patterns. The allocation of 25 supplementary grants per year does not appear as effective in reducing expected occupational gaps as the re-modulation of all regional training vacancies.Human Resources for Health 01/2015; DOI:10.1186/1478-4491-13-7 · 1.83 Impact Factor
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ABSTRACT: AimTo describe temporary and permanent separation patterns and changes in nursing practice over 5 years, for the 2006 cohort of nurses aged ≥50 years in New Zealand.Background As ageing populations increase demand on nursing services, workforce projections need better information on work and retirement decision-making of large ‘baby-boomer’ cohorts.DesignRetrospective cohort analysis using the Nursing Council of New Zealand administrative dataset.MethodsA cohort of all nurses aged ≥50 years on the register and practising in 2006 (n = 12,606) was tracked until 2011.ResultsAfter 5 years, a quarter (n = 3161) of the cohort (equivalent to 8·4% of all 2006 practising nurses) was no longer practising. There were no significant differences in permanent separation rates between the ages of 50–58; between 18–54% of annual separations re-entered the workforce. On re-entry, 56% returned to the same clinical area. Annual separations from the workforce declined sharply during the global financial crisis and more of those leaving re-entered the workforce. In 2006, half the cohort worked in hospitals. After 5 years, the number of cohort nurses working in hospitals fell by 45%, while those in community settings increased by 12%. Over 5 years, weekly nursing practice hours declined significantly for every age-band.Conclusions To retain the experience of older nurses for longer, workforce strategies need to take account of patterns of leaving and re-entering the workforce, preferences for work hours and the differences between the sub-groups across employment settings and practice areas.Journal of Advanced Nursing 04/2014; 70(12). DOI:10.1111/jan.12426 · 1.69 Impact Factor
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ABSTRACT: To identify factors that motivate older nurses to leave the workforce. As many older nurses are now reaching retirement age and will be eligible for government-funded pensions, governments are concerned about the impending financial burden. To prepare for this scenario, many are looking at increasing the age of retirement to 67 or 70 years. Little is known about how this will affect the continuing employment of older nurses and the consequences for employers and the nurses themselves if they remain longer in the workforce. Prospective randomised quantitative survey study. The Mature Age Workers Questionnaire, Job Descriptive Index and Job in General Scale were used to measure job satisfaction, intention to retire and factors encouraging retirement in registered nurses aged 45 years and over (n = 352) in Australia (July-August 2007). There were 319 respondents. The mean age proposed for leaving the workforce was 61·7 years. Key motivators were: financial considerations (40·1%), primarily financial security; nurse health (17·4%) and retirement age of partner (13·3%). Older nurses are leaving the workforce prior to retirement or pension age, primarily for financial, social and health reasons, taking with them significant experience and knowledge. As financial considerations are important in older nurses decisions to continue to work, increasing the age of retirement may retain them. However, consideration will need to be given to ensure that they continue to experience job satisfaction and are physically and mentally able to undertake demanding work. Increasing retirement age may retain older nurses in the workforce, however, the impact on the health of older nurses is not known, nor is the impact for employers of older nurses continuing to work known. Employers must facilitate workplace changes to accommodate older nurses. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.Journal of Clinical Nursing 12/2014; 24(5-6). DOI:10.1111/jocn.12747 · 1.23 Impact Factor