Forecast of demand for antiretroviral drugs in low and middle-income countries: 2007-2008

University of California, Berkeley, Berkeley, California, United States
AIDS (Impact Factor: 6.56). 08/2007; 21 Suppl 4:S97-103. DOI: 10.1097/01.aids.0000279712.32051.29
Source: PubMed

ABSTRACT Middle and low-income countries have scaled up HIV treatment in the past 5 years. To maintain this effort, information regarding the amounts and types of drugs is needed. Shortages or overstock of active pharmaceutical ingredients make the scale-up efforts more difficult and costly. To inform global planning and implementation, we estimate the volume of current and future demand for active pharmaceutical ingredients for first and second-line antiretroviral drugs.
Using regression analysis and documented assumptions, we estimated the number of individuals receiving antiretroviral drugs to 2008. The volume of active pharmaceutical ingredients was calculated using two methods: a normative approach modelling implementation of country-specific guidelines, and an empirical model projecting current trends in drug use estimated by a survey of country HIV programmes.
The number of patients treated was estimated to reach 3.38 million by the end of 2008, of which 94.6% would be on first-line and 5.4% on second-line treatment. The largest estimated absolute demand volumes for 2008 were for nevirapine, lamivudine, and zidovudine using either approach; the largest proportional increases in 2007-2008, were observed for emtricitabine, tenofovir, indinavir, and nelfinavir. The gap between normative and empirical estimates was greatest (most positive) for tenofovir, zidovudine, didanosine, and smallest (most negative) for saquinavir and nelfinavir.
A comparison of the results from the normative and empirical demand quantities suggests that more tenofovir, zidovudine and didanosine would be required if national treatment guidelines were fully implemented, whereas the countries seem to be using more saquinavir and nelfinavir than would be required by their current guidelines.

  • Source
    [Show abstract] [Hide abstract]
    ABSTRACT: Background World-wide, the notable expansion of HIV/AIDS treatment programs in resource-limited settings has lead to an increasing number of patients in need of second-line cART. To adequately address and prepare for this scenario, critical assessments of the outcomes of second-line cART are particularly relevant in settings where monitoring strategies may be inadequate. We evaluated virologic outcomes of second-line combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) among HIV-infected individuals from Brazil.Methods This study was conducted at the Instituto Nacional de Infectologia Evandro Chagas, Fundação Oswaldo Cruz, at Rio de Janeiro, Brazio. For this study we included all patients who started first-line and second-line cART between 2000 and 2013. Second-line cART required a switch in the anchor drug of first-line cART. We evaluated time from second-line start to virologic failure and factors associated with increased risk of failure using multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression models.ResultsAmong the 1,311 patients who started first-line cART a total of 386 patients (29.5%) initiated second-line cART, out of which 35.0% and 60.6% switched from their first-line to their second-line cART when their HIV RNA was undetectable and after documented virologic failure, respectively. At second line cART initiation, median age was 38 years [interquartile range (IQR): 31-45years]. Median CD4 count was significantly different for patients starting second-line cART undetectable [412 cells/mm3 (IQR: 240-617)] compared to those starting second-line cART after documented virologic failure [230 cells/mm3 (IQR: 118-322.5)] (p¿<¿0.01). Median time from second-line cART initiation to failure was also significantly different for patients starting second-line cART undetectable compared to those who with documented virologic failure (log-rank test p¿<¿0.01). Multivariable Cox models showed that younger age, lower education, and HIV RNA level were independently associated with an increased hazard of second-line failure among those with documented virologic failure at start of second-line cART.Conclusions We have shown that in a middle-income country with universal access to cART, having a detectable HIV RNA at the start of second-line cART as well as younger age and lower education negatively impact second-line outcomes. Our findings could guide HIV treatment efforts as to which strategies would help maximize the durability of these regimens.
    BMC Infectious Diseases 12/2014; 14(1):699. DOI:10.1186/s12879-014-0699-5 · 2.56 Impact Factor
  • Source
    [Show abstract] [Hide abstract]
    ABSTRACT: Background Uncertainty exists about the best treatment for people with HIV-1 who have virological failure with first-line combination antiretroviral therapy of a non-nucleoside analogue (NNRTI) plus two nucleoside or nucleotide analogue reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NtRTI). We compared a second-line regimen combining two new classes of drug with a WHO-recommended regimen. Methods We did this 96-week, phase 3b/4, randomised, open-label non-inferiority trial at 37 sites worldwide. Adults with HIV-1 who had confirmed virological failure (plasma viral load >500 copies per mL) after 24 weeks or more of first-line treatment were randomly assigned (1:1) to receive ritonavir-boosted lopinavir plus two or three NtRTIs (control group) or ritonavir-boosted lopinavir plus raltegravir (raltegravir group). The randomisation sequence was computer generated with block randomisation (block size four). Neither participants nor investigators were masked to allocation. The primary endpoint was the proportion of participants with plasma viral load less than 200 copies per mL at 48 weeks in the modified intention-to-treat population, with a non-inferiority margin of 12%. This study is registered with, number NCT00931463. Findings We enrolled 558 patients, of whom 541 (271 in the control group, 270 in the raltegravir group) were included in the primary analysis. At 48 weeks, 219 (81%) patients in the control group compared with 223 (83%) in the raltegravir group met the primary endpoint (difference 1·8%, 95% CI –4·7 to 8·3), fulfilling the criterion for non-inferiority. 993 adverse events occurred in 271 participants in the control group versus 895 in 270 participants in the raltegravir group, the most common being gastrointestinal. Interpretation The raltegravir regimen was no less efficacious than the standard of care and was safe and well tolerated. This simple NtRTI-free treatment strategy might extend the successful public health approach to management of HIV by providing simple, easy to administer, effective, safe, and tolerable second-line combination antiretroviral therapy.
    The Lancet 01/2013; DOI:10.1016/S0140-6736(13)61164-2 · 39.21 Impact Factor
  • Source
    [Show abstract] [Hide abstract]
    ABSTRACT: This study aimed to investigate treatment effect, drug resistance changes, and their influencing factors in Chinese AIDS patients after switching to second-line antiretroviral therapy, and thus provide important information for the scale-up of second-line antiretroviral treatment in China. In Weishi county of Henan province, where second-line antiretroviral therapy was introduced early in China, 195 AIDS patients were enrolled, of which 127 patients met the switching criterion and 68 patients volunteered to switch drugs without meeting the switching criterion. CD4 cell count, viral load and in-house PCR genotyping for drug resistance were measured for all 195 subjects before drug switch, as well as 6 and 12 months after drug switch. Extensive secondary mutations to the protease inhibitor were observed, which suggested that long-term drug resistance surveillance is necessary for patients switching to second-line antiretroviral therapy. Multidrug resistance and cross-resistance were extensive in Chinese patients that experienced first-line treatment failure. Patients need timely CD4 count, viral load, and drug resistance monitoring in order to switch to second-line therapy under conditions of relatively good immunity and low viral duplication levels.
    PLoS ONE 10/2014; 9(10):e110259. DOI:10.1371/journal.pone.0110259 · 3.53 Impact Factor