Article

Association between climate variability and hospital visits for non-cholera diarrhoea in Bangladesh: effects and vulnerable groups.

Public and Environmental Health Research Unit, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London WC1E 7HT, UK.
International Journal of Epidemiology (impact factor: 6.41). 11/2007; 36(5):1030-7. DOI:10.1093/ije/dym148 pp.1030-7
Source: PubMed

ABSTRACT We estimated the effects of rainfall and temperature on the number of non-cholera diarrhoea cases and identified population factors potentially affecting vulnerability to the effect of the climate factors in Dhaka, Bangladesh.
Weekly rainfall, temperature and number of hospital visits for non-cholera diarrhoea were analysed by time-series regression. A Poisson regression model was used to model the relationships controlling for seasonally varying factors other than the weather variables. Modifications of weather effects were investigated by fitting the models separately to incidence series according to their characteristics (sex, age, socio-economic, hygiene and sanitation status).
The number of non-cholera diarrhoea cases per week increased by 5.1% (95% CI: 3.3-6.8) for every 10 mm increase above the threshold of 52 mm of average rainfall over lags 0-8 weeks. The number of cases also increased by 3.9% (95% CI: 0.6-7.2) for every 10 mm decrease below the same threshold of rainfall. Ambient temperature was also positively associated with the number of non-cholera diarrhoea cases. There was no evidence for the modification of both 'high and low rainfall' effects by individual characteristics, while the effect of temperature was higher amongst those individuals at a lower educational attainment and unsanitary toilet users.
The number of non-cholera diarrhoea cases increased both above and below a threshold level with high and low rainfall in the preceding weeks. The number of cases also increased with higher temperature, particularly in those individuals at a lower socio-economic and sanitation status.

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    International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health 08/2011; 8(8):3437-52. · 1.61 Impact Factor
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Keywords

Ambient temperature
 
average rainfall
 
climate factors
 
higher temperature
 
individual characteristics
 
low rainfall
 
low rainfall' effects
 
lower educational attainment
 
lower socio-economic
 
non-cholera diarrhoea
 
non-cholera diarrhoea cases
 
Poisson regression model
 
population factors
 
sanitation status
 
seasonally varying factors
 
threshold level
 
time-series regression
 
unsanitary toilet users
 
weather variables
 
Weekly rainfall