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    ABSTRACT: Abstract Background: Accurate prediction of prognosis for cancer patients is important for good clinical decision making in therapeutic and care strategies. The application of prognostic tools and indicators could improve prediction accuracy. Objective: This study aimed to develop a new prognostic scale to predict survival time of advanced cancer patients in China. Methods: We prospectively collected items that we anticipated might influence survival time of advanced cancer patients. Participants were recruited from 12 hospitals in Shanghai, China. We collected data including demographic information, clinical symptoms and signs, and biochemical test results. Log-rank tests, Cox regression, and linear regression were performed to develop a prognostic scale. Results: Three hundred twenty patients with advanced cancer were recruited. Fourteen prognostic factors were included in the prognostic scale: Karnofsky Performance Scale (KPS) score, pain, ascites, hydrothorax, edema, delirium, cachexia, white blood cell (WBC) count, hemoglobin, sodium, total bilirubin, direct bilirubin, aspartate aminotransferase (AST), and alkaline phosphatase (ALP) values. The score was calculated by summing the partial scores, ranging from 0 to 30. When using the cutoff points of 7-day, 30-day, 90-day, and 180-day survival time, the scores were calculated as 12, 10, 8, and 6, respectively. Conclusions: We propose a new prognostic scale including KPS, pain, ascites, hydrothorax, edema, delirium, cachexia, WBC count, hemoglobin, sodium, total bilirubin, direct bilirubin, AST, and ALP values, which may help guide physicians in predicting the likely survival time of cancer patients more accurately. More studies are needed to validate this scale in the future.
    Journal of palliative medicine 04/2014; · 1.84 Impact Factor
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    ABSTRACT: The purpose of this study is to develop and validate a scale prognostic of survival in hospitalized, terminally ill cancer patients in China. Terminally ill cancer patients hospitalized at two general hospitals in China were prospectively analyzed. Patients were divided into a training cohort (n = 181) and a testing cohort (n = 128). Factors prognostic of survival were identified in the training cohort and combined into a scale, which was validated in the testing cohort. In the training cohort, eight factors associated with reduced survival were identified: low performance status, dyspnea at rest, reduced oral intake, cognitive impairment, edema, leukocytosis, and elevated urea and alanine transaminase concentrations. A prognostic prediction score was calculated for each patient, based on the weight of these eight predictors in the regression model, with scores ranging from 0 (no altered variables) to 12 (maximal altered variables). Patients with different prognostic scores had significantly different prognoses (p < 0.001). A cutoff point of ≥4 was optimal in categorizing patients with "low" (score <4) and "high" (score ≥4) risk of survival for less than 30 days, with median survival time in these groups of 47 and 9 days, respectively. Using this cutoff point on the testing cohort, median survival time for the low and high risk groups were 66 and 11 days, respectively. We identified eight indicators predictive of poor survival in Chinese patients hospitalized with terminal cancer. A prognostic scale that includes these indicators may help in making decisions about end-of-life care.
    Supportive Care in Cancer 09/2013; · 2.09 Impact Factor
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    ABSTRACT: OBJECTIVE: The Palliative Performance Scale (PPS), which measures performance status (100 = best performance to 0 = dead), and the Edmonton Symptom Assessment System (ESAS), which measures severity of 9 symptoms, are routinely collected at ambulatory cancer visits in Ontario. This study describes the trajectory of scores in patients with gynecologic cancer in the last 6 months of life. METHODS: An observational study was conducted between 2007 and 2010. Patients had ovarian/fallopian tube, uterine, and cervical cancer and required 1 or more PPS or ESAS assessment in the 6 months before death. Outcomes were the average PPS and ESAS scores per week before death. Using logistic regression, we analyzed the odds ratio of reporting a moderate to severe score for each symptom. RESULTS: Seven hundred ninety-five (PPS) and 1299 (ESAS) patients were included. The average PPS score started at 70 and ended at 30, rapidly declining in the last 2 months. For ESAS symptoms, drowsiness, decreased well-being, lack of appetite, and tiredness increased in severity closer to death and were prevalent in more than 70% of patients in the last week of life. Patients with cervical cancer had increased odds of moderate to severe pain (1.74; 95% confidence interval, 1.30-2.32) compared with ovarian cancer. CONCLUSIONS: Trajectories of mean performance status had not reached the "end-of-life" phase until 1 week before death. A large proportion of the gynecologic cancer patients reported moderate to severe symptom scores as death approached. Pain was uniquely elevated in the cervical cancer cohort as death approached. Adequately managing the symptom burden appears to be a significant issue in end-of-life gynecologic care.
    International Journal of Gynecological Cancer 05/2013; · 1.94 Impact Factor

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