Computed tomography versus Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II score in predicting severity of acute pancreatitis: a prospective, comparative study with statistical evaluation.
ABSTRACT The aim of the study was to compare Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II score and C-reactive protein as a clinical index and computed tomography-based severity index (CTSI) in predicting the course of acute pancreatitis.
One hundred forty-eight patients with acute pancreatitis were enrolled in the study during a 2-year period. All data concerning etiology, Atlanta classification, CT findings, Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation score, C-reactive protein levels, stay in the intensive care unit, length of hospital stay, treatment, complications, and deaths were analyzed with Mann-Whitney U, Wilcoxon, Pearson, and Spearman statistical tests. The CT was performed on a spiral unit after intravenous administration of contrast material. Images were graded according to the Balthazar-CTSI scoring system.
A very good correlation was noticed between Balthazar-CTSI scores and local complications, whereas no statistically significant correlation was found between CT scores and stay in the intensive care unit. Among survivors and nonsurvivors, there were no statistically significant differences as far as CT scores were concerned.
Although the extent of necrosis as defined on contrast-enhanced CT examinations is considered as a risk factor for a negative prognosis, our findings suggest that the initially documented disease severity according only to imaging parameters is not highly important for the final patient outcome.
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ABSTRACT: . Early assessment of severity in acute pancreatitis (AP) is a key measure to provide rational and effective management. The aim of our study is to determine the prognostic value of interleukins (IL) 6, 8, and 10, soluble receptor for tumor necrosis factor (sTNFr), pancreatic elastase (E1), and C-reactive protein (CRP) as predictors of systemic complications in AP. . A hundred and fifty patients with confirmed AP were enrolled in the study. The severity of AP was defined according to Atlanta criteria. Measurements of interleukins and sTNFr were performed on the first day of admission. CRP and E1 levels were assessed on admission and after 48 hours. ROC analysis was performed for all parameters. . Interleukins and sTNFr significantly differentiated patients with systemic complications from those without. Elevation of IL-6 showed the highest significance as a predictor ( = 0.001). CRP and elastase levels did not differ between mild and severe cases on admission, but reached statistical significance when measured on the third day ( = 0.002 and = 0.001, resp.). . Our study confirmed that IL-6, IL-8, IL-10, and sTNFr measured on admission, and CRP and pancreatic elastase measured on third day of admission represent valuable prognostic factors of severity and systemic complications of AP.Gastroenterology Research and Practice 03/2013; 2013(2):282645. DOI:10.1155/2013/282645 · 1.50 Impact Factor
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ABSTRACT: Most acute pancreatitis risk scoring systems use total white blood cell counts (WBC) as one of the risk factors. The value of the neutrophil-lymphocyte ratio (NLR) to predict the severity of acute pancreatitis has not been previously evaluated. This observational study included 283 patients admitted to a tertiary center between 2004 and 2007. The patients were arranged into tertiles according to NLR and WBC values. The primary outcomes were intensive care unit (ICU) admission and length of stay (LOS) in the hospital. According to NLR tertiles, patients in the 3rd tertile (NLR ≥7.6) had significantly more ICU admissions (17 vs. 2.2%, p < 0.0001) and longer average LOS (6.2 vs. 4.2 days, p < 0.002) compared with those in the 1st tertile (NLR <3.6). According to WBC tertiles, patients in the 3rd tertile had more ICU admissions (12.6 vs. 6.2%, p = 0.12) and a longer average LOS (5.8 vs. 4.4 days, p = 0.059) compared to patients in the 1st WBC tertile, but this did not reach statistical significance. In the multivariate model including NLR, WBC and other predictors, only NLR tertiles (p < 0.0262) and modified early warning scores (p < 0.0025) were significant predictors of ICU admission. Likewise, in the multivariate model of LOS, only NLR and glucose level were significant predictors of longer LOS (p < 0.0161 and p < 0.0053, respectively). NLR is superior to total WBC in predicting adverse outcomes of acute pancreatitis. According to our data, we suggest using the NLR cutoff value of >4.7 as a simple indicator of severity in patients presenting with acute pancreatitis. and IAP.Pancreatology 08/2011; 11(4):445-52. DOI:10.1159/000331494 · 2.50 Impact Factor
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ABSTRACT: Early computed tomography (CT) (within 4 full days after symptom onset) may be performed to distinguish acute pancreatitis (AP) from other intra-abdominal conditions or to identify early pancreatic necrosis. We analyzed practice and yield of early CT in patients with an established clinical diagnosis of AP in a Dutch cohort (EARL study). Multicenter observational study. Etiology, disease course, CT timing, Balthazar CT score, and clinical management were evaluated. First documented hospital admissions of 166 patients were analyzed. Etiology was biliary (42.8%), unknown (20.5%), alcoholic (18.1%), post-endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatography (11.4%), and miscellaneous (7.2%). In 89.2% (148/166), the disease course was mild. Out of 18 patients with severe AP, 11 eventually developed (peri)pancreatic necrosis. At least one CT (range 1-12) was performed in 47% (78/166) of all patients and in 62.8% (49/78) it was acquired within 4 full days after symptom onset. Practice, timing, and Balthazar CT score of early CTs were not significantly different between mild and severe AP. None of the early CTs showed necrosis and no alternative diagnoses were established. In 89.8% (44/49), clinical management was not altered after early CT. In 10.2% (5/49), prophylactic antibiotics were started, but in absence of necrosis. A CT scan was frequently acquired early in the course of AP, but its yield was low and had no implications with regard to clinical management. It seems prudent that clinicians should be more restrictive in the use of early CT, in particular in mild AP, to prevent unnecessary radiation exposure and to save costs.Pancreatology 06/2010; 10(2-3):222-8. DOI:10.1159/000243731 · 2.50 Impact Factor